Oscars 2017 Category Breakdown: Best Picture

Every year, as we lead up to the Oscars, I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category; what the trends are, how the guilds and stuff help (or don’t), etc. I also do it as a precursor to my giant Oscar ballot. I get most of the heavy lifting out of the way here, so that way when I get to the article, I’m just kind of riffing on how I think it’ll turn out and talking myself into all the bad decisions. It’s like college. And this is the pregame.

How these articles work is — I give you all the previous winners and nominees of each of the categories, then tell you how accurate each of the respective guilds and precursors are in what they vote for versus what wins the Oscar, tell you how each of them voted this year, then give you this year’s category, along with a quick rundown of how we ended up with that category (what was a surprise, etc). After that, I rank each of this year’s nominees in terms of how I see them right now in terms of their likelihood to win. Which is nothing more than my perception (notice that underline, even though you won’t) of how the category seems at the moment based on everything I know and have seen. Which will give you a general sense of the favorites.

Only one category left. The big one. Best Picture. We save this one for last every year, and fortunately, the past couple years have brought us tight races.

Year	Best Picture Winner	Other Nominees
1927-1928	Wings	The Racket Seventh Heaven
1928-1929	The Broadway Melody	Alibi The Hollywood Revue of 1929 In Old Arizona The Patriot
1929-1930	All Quiet on the Western Front	The Big House Disraeli The Divorcee The Love Parade
1930-1931	Cimarron	East Lynne The Front Page Skippy Trader Horn
1931-1932	Grand Hotel	Arrowsmith Bad Girl The Champ Five Star Final One Hour with You Shanghai Express The Smiling Lieutenant
1932-1933	Cavalcade	A Farewell to Arms 42nd Street I Am a Fugitive from a Chain Gang Lady for a Day Little Women The Private Life of Henry VIII She Done Him Wrong Smilin’ Through State Fair
1934	It Happened One Night	The Barretts of Wimpole Street Cleopatra Flirtation Walk The Gay Divorcee Here Comes the Navy The House of Rothschild Imitation of Life One Night of Love The Thin Man Viva Villa! The White Parade
1935	Mutiny on the Bounty	Alice Adams Broadway Melody of 1936 Captain Blood David Copperfield The Informer The Lives of a Bengal Lancer A Midsummer Night’s Dream Les Misérables Naughty Marietta Ruggles of Red Gap
1936	The Great Ziegfeld	Anthony Adverse Dodsworth Libeled Lady Mr. Deeds Goes to Town Romeo and Juliet San Francisco The Story of Louis Pasteur A Tale of Two Cities Three Smart Girls
1937	The Life of Emile Zola	The Awful Truth Captains Courageous Dead End The Good Earth In Old Chicago Lost Horizon One Hundred Men and a Girl Stage Door A Star is Born
1938	You Can’t Take It with You	The Adventures of Robin Hood Alexander’s Ragtime Band Boys Town The Citadel Four Daughters Grand Illusion Jezebel Pygmalion Test Pilot
1939	Gone With the Wind	Dark Victory Goodbye Mr. Chips Love Affair Mr. Smith Goes to Washington Ninotchka Of Mice and Men Stagecoach The Wizard of Oz Wuthering Heights
1940	Rebecca	All This, and Heaven Too Foreign Correspondent The Grapes of Wrath The Great Dictator Kitty Foyle The Letter The Long Voyage Home Our Town The Philadelphia Story
1941	How Green Was My Valley	Blossoms in the Dust Citizen Kane Here Comes Mr. Jordan Hold Back the Dawn The Little Foxes The Maltese Falcon One Foot in Heaven Sergeant York Suspicion
1942	Mrs. Miniver	49th Parallel Kings Row The Magnificent Ambersons The Pied Piper The Pride of the Yankees Random Harvest The Talk of the Town Wake Island Yankee Doodle Dandy
1943	Casablanca	For Whom the Bell Tolls Heaven Can Wait The Human Comedy In Which We Serve Madame Curie The More the Merrier The Ox-Bow Incident The Song of Bernadette Watch on the Rhine
1944	Going My Way	Double Indemnity Gaslight Since You Went Away Wilson
1945	The Lost Weekend	Anchors Aweigh The Bells of St. Mary’s Mildred Pierce Spellbound
1946	The Best Years of Our Lives	Henry V It’s a Wonderful Life The Razor’s Edge The Yearling
1947	Gentleman’s Agreement	The Bishop’s Wife Crossfire Great Expectations Miracle on 34th Street
1948	Hamlet	Johnny Belinda The Red Shoe The Snake Pit The Treasure of the Sierra Madre
1949	All the King’s Men	Battleground The Heiress A Letter to Three Wives Twelve O’Clock High
1950	All About Eve	Born Yesterday Father of the Bride King Solomon’s Mines Sunset Boulevard
1951	An American in Paris	Decision Before Dawn A Place in the Sun Quo Vadis A Streetcar Named Desire
1952	The Greatest Show on Earth	High Noon Ivanhoe Moulin Rouge The Quiet Man
1953	From Here to Eternity	Julius Caesar The Robe Roman Holiday Shane
1954	On the Waterfront	The Caine Mutiny The Country Girl Seven Brides for Seven Brothers Three Coins in the Fountain
1955	Marty	Love is a Many-Splendored Thing Mister Roberts Picnic The Rose Tattoo
1956	Around the World in 80 Days	Friendly Persuasion Giant The King and I The Ten Commandments
1957	The Bridge on the River Kwai	Peyton Place Sayonara 12 Angry Men Witness for Prosecution
1958	Gigi	Auntie Mame Cat on a Hot Tin Roof The Defiant Ones Separate Tables
1959	Ben-Hur	Anatomy of a Murder The Diary of Anne Frank The Nun’s Story Room at the Top
1960	The Apartment	The Alamo Elmer Gantry Sons and Lovers The Sundowners
1961	West Side Story	Fanny The Guns of Navarone The Hustler Judgment at Nuremberg
1962	Lawrence of Arabia	The Longest Day The Music Man Mutiny on the Bounty To Kill a Mockingbird
1963	Tom Jones	America America Cleopatra How the West Was Won Lilies of the Field
1964	My Fair Lady	Becket Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb Mary Poppins Zorba the Greek
1965	The Sound of Music	Darling Doctor Zhivago Ship of Fools A Thousand Clowns
1966	A Man for All Seasons	Alfie The Russians are Coming the Russians are Coming The Sand Pebbles Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?
1967	In the Heat of the Night	Bonnie and Clyde Doctor Dolittle The Graduate Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner
1968	Oliver!	Funny Girl The Lion in Winter Rachel Rache lRomeo and Juliet
1969	Midnight Cowboy	Anne of the Thousand Days Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid Hello Dolly! Z
1970	Patton	Airport Five Easy Pieces Love Story MASH
1971	The French Connection	A Clockwork Orange Fiddler on the Roof The Last Picture Show Nicholas and Alexandra
1972	The Godfather	Cabaret Deliverance The Emigrants Sounder
1973	The Sting	American Graffiti Cries and Whispers The Exorcist A Touch of Class
1974	The Godfather Part II	Chinatown The Conversation Lenny The Towering Inferno
1975	One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest	Barry Lyndon Dog Day Afternoon Jaws Nashville
1976	Rocky	All the President’s Men Bound for Glory Network Taxi Driver
1977	Annie Hall	The Goodbye Girl Julia Star Wars The Turning Point
1978	The Deer Hunter	Coming Home Heaven Can Wait Midnight Express An Unmarried Woman
1979	Kramer vs. Kramer	All That Jazz Apocalypse Now Breaking Away Norma Rae
1980	Ordinary People	Coal Miner’s Daughter The Elephant Man Raging Bull Tess
1981	Chariots of Fire	Atlantic City On Golden Pond Raiders of the Lost Ark Reds
1982	Gandhi	E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial Missing Tootsie The Verdict
1983	Terms of Endearment	The Big Chill The Dresser The Right Stuff Tender Mercies
1984	Amadeus	The Killing Fields A Passage to India Places in the Heart A Soldier’s Story
1985	Out of Africa	The Color Purple Kiss of the Spider Woman Prizzi’s Honor Witness
1986	Platoon	Children of a Lesser God Hannah and Her Sisters The Mission A Room with a View
1987	The Last Emperor	Broadcast News Fatal Attraction Hope and Glory Moonstruck
1988	Rain Man	The Accidental Tourist Dangerous Liaisons Mississippi Burning Working Girl
1989	Driving Miss Daisy	Born on the Fourth of July Dead Poets Society Field of Dreams My Left Foot
1990	Dances with Wolves	Awakenings Ghost The Godfather Part III Goodfellas
1991	The Silence of the Lambs	Beauty and the Beast Bugsy JFK The Prince of Tides
1992	Unforgiven	The Crying Game A Few Good Men Howards End Scent of a Woman
1993	Schindler’s List	The Fugitive In the Name of the Father The Piano The Remains of the Day
1994	Forrest Gump	Four Weddings and a Funeral Pulp Fiction Quiz Show The Shawshank Redemption
1995	Braveheart	Apollo 13 Babe Il Postino Sense and Sensibility
1996	The English Patient	Fargo Jerry Maguire Secrets & Lies Shine
1997	Titanic	As Good as It Gets The Full Monty Good Will Hunting L.A. Confidential
1998	Shakespeare in Love	Elizabeth Life is Beautiful Saving Private Ryan The Thin Red Line
1999	American Beauty	The Cider House Rules The Green Mile The Insider The Sixth Sense
2000	Gladiator	Chocolat Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon Erin Brockovich Traffic
2001	A Beautiful Mind	Gosford Park In the Bedroom The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring Moulin Rouge!
2002	Chicago	Gangs of New York The Hours The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers The Pianist
2003	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	Lost in Translation Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World Mystic River Seabscuit
2004	Million Dollar Baby	The Aviator Finding Neverland Ray Sideways
2005	Crash	Brokeback Mountain Capote Good Night and Good Luck Munich
2006	The Departed	Babel Letters from Iwo Jima Little Miss Sunshine The Queen
2007	No Country for Old Men	Atonement Juno Michael Clayton There Will Be Blood
2008	Slumdog Millionaire	The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Frost/Nixon Milk The Reader
2009	The Hurt Locker	Avatar The Blind Side District 9 An Education Inglourious Basterds Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire A Serious Man Up Up in the Air
2010	The King’s Speech	Black Swan The Fighter Inception The Kids Are All Right 127 Hours The Social Network Toy Story 3 True Grit Winter’s Bone
2011	The Artist	The Descendants Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close The Help Hugo Midnight in Paris Moneyball The Tree of Life War Horse
2012	Argo	Amour Beasts of the Southern Wild Django Unchained Les Misérables Life of Pi Lincoln Silver Linings Playbook Zero Dark Thirty
2013	12 Years a Slave	American Hustle Captain Phillips Dallas Buyers Club Gravity Her Nebraska Philomena The Wolf of Wall Street
2014	Birdman or: (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)	American Sniper Boyhood The Grand Budapest Hotel The Imitation Game Selma The Theory of Everything Whiplash
2015	Spotlight	The Big Short Bridge of Spies Brooklyn Mad Max: Fury Road The Martian The Revenant Room
2016	Moonlight	Arrival Fences Hacksaw Ridge Hell or High Water Hidden Figures La La Land Lion Manchester by the Sea

At this point, this is the category where you have the most information, so I’ll just run through everything we know so far…

The main precursor is the PGA. They used to be close to automatic, but lately they’ve been shaky.

Since 1989, when the PGA first started handing out awards, they’ve matched Best Picture all but nine times. Those times were:

• 1992, The Crying Game wins the PGA, Unforgiven wins the Oscar.
• 1995, Apollo 13 wins the PGA, Braveheart wins the Oscar.
• 1998, Saving Private Ryan wins the PGA, Shakespeare in Love wins the Oscar.
• 2001, Moulin Rouge! wins the PGA, A Beautiful Mind wins the Oscar.
• 2004, The Aviator wins the PGA, Million Dollar Baby wins the Oscar.
• 2005, Brokeback Mountain wins the PGA, Crash wins the Oscar.
• 2006, Little Miss Sunshine wins the PGA, The Departed wins the Oscar.
• 2015, The Big Short wins the PGA, Spotlight wins the Oscar.
• 2016, La La Land wins the PGA, Moonlight wins the Oscar.

(Note: 2013 had a tie, where both Gravity and 12 Years a Slave won the Oscar, and 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture. Technically they were both right and wrong at the same time, but I’m marking that as being correct.)

Now, since this does sort of give you an idea, when the PGA has missed Best Picture, here’s how BFCA has voted:

• They did not give out awards in 1992.
• 1995: They went with Sense and Sensibility
• 1998: They went with Saving Private Ryan
• 2001: They went with A Beautiful Mind
• 2004: They went with Sideways
• 2005: They went with Brokeback Mountain
• 2006: They went with The Departed
• 2015: They went with Spotlight
• 2016: They went with La La Land

They got three of them right. So that’s something, right?

And BAFTA tends to do their own thing and be wrong just about the same as everyone else. In those nine years:

• 1992: They went with Howards End
• 1995: They went with Sense and Sensibility
• 1998: They went with Shakespeare in Love
• 2001: They went with The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
• 2004: They went with The Aviator
• 2005: They went with Brokeback Mountain
• 2006: They went with The Queen
• 2015: They went with The Revenant
• 2016: They went with La La Land

They picked up just one winner, and it was Shakespeare in Love, the quintessential BAFTA movie.

If you care about the other precursors…

SAG Ensemble in those nine years:

• They did not hand out awards in 1992.
• 1995: They went with Apollo 13
• 1998: They went with Shakespeare in Love
• 2001: They went with Gosford Park
• 2004: They went with Sideways
• 2005: They went with Crash
• 2006: They went with Little Miss Sunshine
• 2015: They went with Spotlight
• 2016: They went with Hidden Figures

They got three of them, but all three were acting/ensemble movies. So I’m not sure how much that really matters, but now you have it.

And the Globes, because why not:

• 1992: Scent of a Woman won Drama over Unforgiven
• 1995: Sense and Sensibility won Drama over Braveheart
• 1998: Saving Private Ryan won Drama (Shakespeare in Love won Comedy/Musical)
• 2001: A Beautiful Mind won Drama.
• 2004: The Aviator won Drama over Million Dollar Baby
• 2005: Brokeback Mountain won Drama. Crash wasn’t even nominated.
• 2006: Babel won Drama over The Departed
• 2015: The Revenant won for Drama over Spotlight
• 2016: Moonlight won Drama (La La Land won for Comedy/Musical)

One year they gave you the winner straight up. The other two, the split category gave you the other contender along with it.

So… PGA is giving you the frontrunner, but it can be beat, and has been the past two years. You pretty much need to use the information at hand and basic logic to see where things are going.

Best Picture

Call Me By Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Get Out

Lady Bird

Phantom Thread

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This category felt, by and large, right there for you. Going in, you knew Dunkirk, Shape of Water, Three Billboards, Get Out and Lady Bird would be nominated. Call Me By Your Name was a near-lock as well. So that’s six off the top. Then… The Post seemed likely, given Spielberg and all that, so you put that on as seven. After that… Darkest Hour made the most sense, so that was eight. Phantom Thread, with zero precursors, is a big surprise, but a welcome one. Outside of that, no other film really had the kind of precursors to feel like a real threat. The Big Sick made the PGA and was hanging around, but the support never felt all the way there. I, Tonya got PGA, but not much else. On a set list of ten, I think that might have made it. Molly’s Game — ehh. There wasn’t a whole lot to look at there. You got the eight you figured would make it, and one nice surprise that fits in nicely. Good category, overall.

As for precursors this year (which I neglected to mention above) —

• The PGA went to The Shape of Water
• BAFTA went to Three Billboards
• BFCA went to The Shape of Water
• SAG Ensemble went to Three Billboards
• The Globe went to Three Billboards in Drama and Lady Bird in Comedy.

I don’t know about you, but doesn’t this one feel like it might be shaping up for the third consecutive PGA miss in a row? The real question for right now, though, isn’t what the favorites are — because we know that. The question is… how do we rank them?

Rankings:

9. The Post — The least amount of nominations of any of the nominees. It felt like they nominated it out of respect for Spielberg and nothing else. People like the film and respect it, but no one loves it, which means it’s not getting the number one votes to contend here. If you had to eyeball it and say which movie was the least likely to win this category, this would be the first choice. This has the exact same nominations as The Blind Side. It’s not happening, guys.

8. Darkest Hour — Six nominations is very solid, but again, if you were taking off the films you didn’t think would win, this would be off really fast. Who loves this enough to make this a top #1 or #2 choice? Not many people. No way this makes it past the first or second round of voting.

7. Phantom Thread — Six nominations, like Darkest Hour. This will, unlike the previous two films, have hardcore fans. I’d have this rated as my #2 movie. That said, that doesn’t help it, since my #1 is gonna be in contention all the way through. But it should have enough votes to be more of a factor than the first film off. It still shouldn’t hang around that long, though. (The Director nomination does mean there is support for this.)

6. Dunkirk — Because, on the eyeball test… where’s the love for this? Where are the #1 votes coming from? Everyone really liked this and respects it, but no one’s putting it at the top of their ballots. It has the second most amount of nominations, but people are responding to the technical achievements of this movie. It’s not really a factor in a race like this. Doesn’t feel like one, anyway. On nominations tally, it should be top five, given the Director and Editing nomination, but I’m just not feeling this one. I don’t see this going third on the majority of ballots. Don’t see it.

5. Call Me By Your Name — It’s the passionate love people will have for this that’ll keep it through. The first round of voting involves strictly #1 votes. After that, it’s what movies are #2 on the most ballots of eliminated films. This will be top three for a lot of people, and that’ll keep it around longer than most people realize. Without a Director or Editing nomination, there’s only so high you can rank it, but this feels like it should crack the top five. And if not, it’s sixth. Either way, not gonna win.

4. Get Out — This was a sneaky contender for the win for me for a while. Now… not totally feeling it. It’ll get a lot of 1s, and a fair amount of 2s and 3s. But I think the precursors have generally spoken, and while people love that this movie was nominated, no one really wants to vote for it for Best Picture. It’s more a ‘glad you’re here’ kind of thing. If this got nominated for Editing, I’d have felt like we had something cooking. Now — it’ll be there, but I don’t think it’ll get that far. The #1s up top are gonna loom large. There’s a small chance this doesn’t get the #1s to last past the first round or two of voting. Very small chance, but it’s there. Can’t accumulate those #2 and #3 votes if you don’t have the 1s up top.

3. Lady Bird — This’ll have the 1s. This’ll have the 2s and 3s. If anything’s the upset contender, this is the one. This feels like the one. Just like Moonlight, all it has to show for its precursors is a Globe win. That said… doubt it happens, but if I’m looking to the surprise choice that the most people like to win over the main two… this is it. Can’t put it higher than third without anything more than the one precursor, but it has everything else you’d want except the Editing nomination. I think this is your spoiler.

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri — In a way, this has the most precursors… but SAG and the Globe aren’t so meaningful. The BAFTA win is big, and I’ve felt all along that this might be the eventual winner. I still won’t put it as the frontrunner just because the PGA still matters most (and the overall number of nominations isn’t to be ignored), but I do think this is closer to a win than you might think. We’re definitely looking at a down-to-the-wire type race. This also has the Editing nomination you look for. It checks all the boxes except the PGA win. So for now, no favorite. But it doesn’t need to be the favorite to win.

1. The Shape of Water — Has the PGA, has BFCA, will win Best Director, has 13 overall nominations. That sounds like a frontrunner to me. The only major precursor it lost was BAFTA. SAG I don’t count as much, and the Globe is just a benchmark. I mean, yeah, that benchmark did alert me to Three Billboards likely being the winner, something I still feel is more than likely the case. But based on everything else, this is currently the frontrunner and has to be beaten. It could happen, and I probably think it will happen, but right now, you gotta beat this film. It’s the most broadly liked film of the bunch, given how many nominations it got, so you gotta beat it.

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