Oscars 2017 Category Breakdown: Best Picture
Every year, as we lead up to the Oscars, I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category; what the trends are, how the guilds and stuff help (or don’t), etc. I also do it as a precursor to my giant Oscar ballot. I get most of the heavy lifting out of the way here, so that way when I get to the article, I’m just kind of riffing on how I think it’ll turn out and talking myself into all the bad decisions. It’s like college. And this is the pregame.
How these articles work is — I give you all the previous winners and nominees of each of the categories, then tell you how accurate each of the respective guilds and precursors are in what they vote for versus what wins the Oscar, tell you how each of them voted this year, then give you this year’s category, along with a quick rundown of how we ended up with that category (what was a surprise, etc). After that, I rank each of this year’s nominees in terms of how I see them right now in terms of their likelihood to win. Which is nothing more than my perception (notice that underline, even though you won’t) of how the category seems at the moment based on everything I know and have seen. Which will give you a general sense of the favorites.
Only one category left. The big one. Best Picture. We save this one for last every year, and fortunately, the past couple years have brought us tight races.
Year | Best Picture Winner | Other Nominees |
1927-1928 | Wings | The Racket
Seventh Heaven |
1928-1929 | The Broadway Melody | Alibi
The Hollywood Revue of 1929 In Old Arizona The Patriot |
1929-1930 | All Quiet on the Western Front | The Big House
Disraeli The Divorcee The Love Parade |
1930-1931 | Cimarron | East Lynne
The Front Page Skippy Trader Horn |
1931-1932 | Grand Hotel | Arrowsmith
Bad Girl The Champ Five Star Final One Hour with You Shanghai Express The Smiling Lieutenant |
1932-1933 | Cavalcade | A Farewell to Arms
42nd Street I Am a Fugitive from a Chain Gang Lady for a Day Little Women The Private Life of Henry VIII She Done Him Wrong Smilin’ Through State Fair |
1934 | It Happened One Night | The Barretts of Wimpole Street
Cleopatra Flirtation Walk The Gay Divorcee Here Comes the Navy The House of Rothschild Imitation of Life One Night of Love The Thin Man Viva Villa! The White Parade |
1935 | Mutiny on the Bounty | Alice Adams
Broadway Melody of 1936 Captain Blood David Copperfield The Informer The Lives of a Bengal Lancer A Midsummer Night’s Dream Les Misérables Naughty Marietta Ruggles of Red Gap |
1936 | The Great Ziegfeld | Anthony Adverse
Dodsworth Libeled Lady Mr. Deeds Goes to Town Romeo and Juliet San Francisco The Story of Louis Pasteur A Tale of Two Cities Three Smart Girls |
1937 | The Life of Emile Zola | The Awful Truth
Captains Courageous Dead End The Good Earth In Old Chicago Lost Horizon One Hundred Men and a Girl Stage Door A Star is Born |
1938 | You Can’t Take It with You | The Adventures of Robin Hood
Alexander’s Ragtime Band Boys Town The Citadel Four Daughters Grand Illusion Jezebel Pygmalion Test Pilot |
1939 | Gone With the Wind | Dark Victory
Goodbye Mr. Chips Love Affair Mr. Smith Goes to Washington Ninotchka Of Mice and Men Stagecoach The Wizard of Oz Wuthering Heights |
1940 | Rebecca | All This, and Heaven Too
Foreign Correspondent The Grapes of Wrath The Great Dictator Kitty Foyle The Letter The Long Voyage Home Our Town The Philadelphia Story |
1941 | How Green Was My Valley | Blossoms in the Dust
Citizen Kane Here Comes Mr. Jordan Hold Back the Dawn The Little Foxes The Maltese Falcon One Foot in Heaven Sergeant York Suspicion |
1942 | Mrs. Miniver | 49th Parallel
Kings Row The Magnificent Ambersons The Pied Piper The Pride of the Yankees Random Harvest The Talk of the Town Wake Island Yankee Doodle Dandy |
1943 | Casablanca | For Whom the Bell Tolls
Heaven Can Wait The Human Comedy In Which We Serve Madame Curie The More the Merrier The Ox-Bow Incident The Song of Bernadette Watch on the Rhine |
1944 | Going My Way | Double Indemnity
Gaslight Since You Went Away Wilson |
1945 | The Lost Weekend | Anchors Aweigh
The Bells of St. Mary’s Mildred Pierce Spellbound |
1946 | The Best Years of Our Lives | Henry V It’s a Wonderful Life
The Razor’s Edge The Yearling |
1947 | Gentleman’s Agreement | The Bishop’s Wife
Crossfire Great Expectations Miracle on 34th Street |
1948 | Hamlet | Johnny Belinda
The Red Shoe The Snake Pit The Treasure of the Sierra Madre |
1949 | All the King’s Men | Battleground
The Heiress A Letter to Three Wives Twelve O’Clock High |
1950 | All About Eve | Born Yesterday
Father of the Bride King Solomon’s Mines Sunset Boulevard |
1951 | An American in Paris | Decision Before Dawn
A Place in the Sun Quo Vadis A Streetcar Named Desire |
1952 | The Greatest Show on Earth | High Noon
Ivanhoe Moulin Rouge The Quiet Man |
1953 | From Here to Eternity | Julius Caesar
The Robe Roman Holiday Shane |
1954 | On the Waterfront | The Caine Mutiny
The Country Girl Seven Brides for Seven Brothers Three Coins in the Fountain |
1955 | Marty | Love is a Many-Splendored Thing
Mister Roberts Picnic The Rose Tattoo |
1956 | Around the World in 80 Days | Friendly Persuasion
Giant The King and I The Ten Commandments |
1957 | The Bridge on the River Kwai | Peyton Place
Sayonara 12 Angry Men Witness for Prosecution |
1958 | Gigi | Auntie Mame
Cat on a Hot Tin Roof The Defiant Ones Separate Tables |
1959 | Ben-Hur | Anatomy of a Murder
The Diary of Anne Frank The Nun’s Story Room at the Top |
1960 | The Apartment | The Alamo
Elmer Gantry Sons and Lovers The Sundowners |
1961 | West Side Story | Fanny
The Guns of Navarone The Hustler Judgment at Nuremberg |
1962 | Lawrence of Arabia | The Longest Day
The Music Man Mutiny on the Bounty To Kill a Mockingbird |
1963 | Tom Jones | America America
Cleopatra How the West Was Won Lilies of the Field |
1964 | My Fair Lady | Becket
Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb Mary Poppins Zorba the Greek |
1965 | The Sound of Music | Darling
Doctor Zhivago Ship of Fools A Thousand Clowns |
1966 | A Man for All Seasons | Alfie
The Russians are Coming the Russians are Coming The Sand Pebbles Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? |
1967 | In the Heat of the Night | Bonnie and Clyde
Doctor Dolittle The Graduate Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner |
1968 | Oliver! | Funny Girl
The Lion in Winter Rachel Rache lRomeo and Juliet |
1969 | Midnight Cowboy | Anne of the Thousand Days
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid Hello Dolly! Z |
1970 | Patton | Airport
Five Easy Pieces Love Story MASH |
1971 | The French Connection | A Clockwork Orange
Fiddler on the Roof The Last Picture Show Nicholas and Alexandra |
1972 | The Godfather | Cabaret
Deliverance The Emigrants Sounder |
1973 | The Sting | American Graffiti
Cries and Whispers The Exorcist A Touch of Class |
1974 | The Godfather Part II | Chinatown
The Conversation Lenny The Towering Inferno |
1975 | One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest | Barry Lyndon
Dog Day Afternoon Jaws Nashville |
1976 | Rocky | All the President’s Men
Bound for Glory Network Taxi Driver |
1977 | Annie Hall | The Goodbye Girl
Julia Star Wars The Turning Point |
1978 | The Deer Hunter | Coming Home
Heaven Can Wait Midnight Express An Unmarried Woman |
1979 | Kramer vs. Kramer | All That Jazz
Apocalypse Now Breaking Away Norma Rae |
1980 | Ordinary People | Coal Miner’s Daughter
The Elephant Man Raging Bull Tess |
1981 | Chariots of Fire | Atlantic City
On Golden Pond Raiders of the Lost Ark Reds |
1982 | Gandhi | E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial
Missing Tootsie The Verdict |
1983 | Terms of Endearment | The Big Chill
The Dresser The Right Stuff Tender Mercies |
1984 | Amadeus | The Killing Fields
A Passage to India Places in the Heart A Soldier’s Story |
1985 | Out of Africa | The Color Purple
Kiss of the Spider Woman Prizzi’s Honor Witness |
1986 | Platoon | Children of a Lesser God
Hannah and Her Sisters The Mission A Room with a View |
1987 | The Last Emperor | Broadcast News
Fatal Attraction Hope and Glory Moonstruck |
1988 | Rain Man | The Accidental Tourist
Dangerous Liaisons Mississippi Burning Working Girl |
1989 | Driving Miss Daisy | Born on the Fourth of July
Dead Poets Society Field of Dreams My Left Foot |
1990 | Dances with Wolves | Awakenings
Ghost The Godfather Part III Goodfellas |
1991 | The Silence of the Lambs | Beauty and the Beast
Bugsy JFK The Prince of Tides |
1992 | Unforgiven | The Crying Game
A Few Good Men Howards End Scent of a Woman |
1993 | Schindler’s List | The Fugitive
In the Name of the Father The Piano The Remains of the Day |
1994 | Forrest Gump | Four Weddings and a Funeral
Pulp Fiction Quiz Show The Shawshank Redemption |
1995 | Braveheart | Apollo 13
Babe Il Postino Sense and Sensibility |
1996 | The English Patient | Fargo
Jerry Maguire Secrets & Lies Shine |
1997 | Titanic | As Good as It Gets
The Full Monty Good Will Hunting L.A. Confidential |
1998 | Shakespeare in Love | Elizabeth
Life is Beautiful Saving Private Ryan The Thin Red Line |
1999 | American Beauty | The Cider House Rules
The Green Mile The Insider The Sixth Sense |
2000 | Gladiator | Chocolat
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon Erin Brockovich Traffic |
2001 | A Beautiful Mind | Gosford Park
In the Bedroom The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring Moulin Rouge! |
2002 | Chicago | Gangs of New York
The Hours The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers The Pianist |
2003 | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | Lost in Translation
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World Mystic River Seabscuit |
2004 | Million Dollar Baby | The Aviator
Finding Neverland Ray Sideways |
2005 | Crash | Brokeback Mountain
Capote Good Night and Good Luck Munich |
2006 | The Departed | Babel
Letters from Iwo Jima Little Miss Sunshine The Queen |
2007 | No Country for Old Men | Atonement
Juno Michael Clayton There Will Be Blood |
2008 | Slumdog Millionaire | The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon Milk The Reader |
2009 | The Hurt Locker | Avatar
The Blind Side District 9 An Education Inglourious Basterds Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire A Serious Man Up Up in the Air |
2010 | The King’s Speech | Black Swan
The Fighter Inception The Kids Are All Right 127 Hours The Social Network Toy Story 3 True Grit Winter’s Bone |
2011 | The Artist | The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close The Help Hugo Midnight in Paris Moneyball The Tree of Life War Horse |
2012 | Argo | Amour
Beasts of the Southern Wild Django Unchained Les Misérables Life of Pi Lincoln Silver Linings Playbook Zero Dark Thirty |
2013 | 12 Years a Slave | American Hustle
Captain Phillips Dallas Buyers Club Gravity Her Nebraska Philomena The Wolf of Wall Street |
2014 | Birdman or: (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) | American Sniper
Boyhood The Grand Budapest Hotel The Imitation Game Selma The Theory of Everything Whiplash |
2015 | Spotlight | The Big Short
Bridge of Spies Brooklyn Mad Max: Fury Road The Martian The Revenant Room |
2016 | Moonlight | Arrival
Fences Hacksaw Ridge Hell or High Water Hidden Figures La La Land Lion Manchester by the Sea |
At this point, this is the category where you have the most information, so I’ll just run through everything we know so far…
The main precursor is the PGA. They used to be close to automatic, but lately they’ve been shaky.
Since 1989, when the PGA first started handing out awards, they’ve matched Best Picture all but nine times. Those times were:
- 1992, The Crying Game wins the PGA, Unforgiven wins the Oscar.
- 1995, Apollo 13 wins the PGA, Braveheart wins the Oscar.
- 1998, Saving Private Ryan wins the PGA, Shakespeare in Love wins the Oscar.
- 2001, Moulin Rouge! wins the PGA, A Beautiful Mind wins the Oscar.
- 2004, The Aviator wins the PGA, Million Dollar Baby wins the Oscar.
- 2005, Brokeback Mountain wins the PGA, Crash wins the Oscar.
- 2006, Little Miss Sunshine wins the PGA, The Departed wins the Oscar.
- 2015, The Big Short wins the PGA, Spotlight wins the Oscar.
- 2016, La La Land wins the PGA, Moonlight wins the Oscar.
(Note: 2013 had a tie, where both Gravity and 12 Years a Slave won the Oscar, and 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture. Technically they were both right and wrong at the same time, but I’m marking that as being correct.)
Now, since this does sort of give you an idea, when the PGA has missed Best Picture, here’s how BFCA has voted:
- They did not give out awards in 1992.
- 1995: They went with Sense and Sensibility
- 1998: They went with Saving Private Ryan
- 2001: They went with A Beautiful Mind
- 2004: They went with Sideways
- 2005: They went with Brokeback Mountain
- 2006: They went with The Departed
- 2015: They went with Spotlight
- 2016: They went with La La Land
They got three of them right. So that’s something, right?
And BAFTA tends to do their own thing and be wrong just about the same as everyone else. In those nine years:
- 1992: They went with Howards End
- 1995: They went with Sense and Sensibility
- 1998: They went with Shakespeare in Love
- 2001: They went with The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
- 2004: They went with The Aviator
- 2005: They went with Brokeback Mountain
- 2006: They went with The Queen
- 2015: They went with The Revenant
- 2016: They went with La La Land
They picked up just one winner, and it was Shakespeare in Love, the quintessential BAFTA movie.
If you care about the other precursors…
SAG Ensemble in those nine years:
- They did not hand out awards in 1992.
- 1995: They went with Apollo 13
- 1998: They went with Shakespeare in Love
- 2001: They went with Gosford Park
- 2004: They went with Sideways
- 2005: They went with Crash
- 2006: They went with Little Miss Sunshine
- 2015: They went with Spotlight
- 2016: They went with Hidden Figures
They got three of them, but all three were acting/ensemble movies. So I’m not sure how much that really matters, but now you have it.
And the Globes, because why not:
- 1992: Scent of a Woman won Drama over Unforgiven
- 1995: Sense and Sensibility won Drama over Braveheart
- 1998: Saving Private Ryan won Drama (Shakespeare in Love won Comedy/Musical)
- 2001: A Beautiful Mind won Drama.
- 2004: The Aviator won Drama over Million Dollar Baby
- 2005: Brokeback Mountain won Drama. Crash wasn’t even nominated.
- 2006: Babel won Drama over The Departed
- 2015: The Revenant won for Drama over Spotlight
- 2016: Moonlight won Drama (La La Land won for Comedy/Musical)
One year they gave you the winner straight up. The other two, the split category gave you the other contender along with it.
So… PGA is giving you the frontrunner, but it can be beat, and has been the past two years. You pretty much need to use the information at hand and basic logic to see where things are going.
Best Picture
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
This category felt, by and large, right there for you. Going in, you knew Dunkirk, Shape of Water, Three Billboards, Get Out and Lady Bird would be nominated. Call Me By Your Name was a near-lock as well. So that’s six off the top. Then… The Post seemed likely, given Spielberg and all that, so you put that on as seven. After that… Darkest Hour made the most sense, so that was eight. Phantom Thread, with zero precursors, is a big surprise, but a welcome one. Outside of that, no other film really had the kind of precursors to feel like a real threat. The Big Sick made the PGA and was hanging around, but the support never felt all the way there. I, Tonya got PGA, but not much else. On a set list of ten, I think that might have made it. Molly’s Game — ehh. There wasn’t a whole lot to look at there. You got the eight you figured would make it, and one nice surprise that fits in nicely. Good category, overall.
As for precursors this year (which I neglected to mention above) —
- The PGA went to The Shape of Water
- BAFTA went to Three Billboards
- BFCA went to The Shape of Water
- SAG Ensemble went to Three Billboards
- The Globe went to Three Billboards in Drama and Lady Bird in Comedy.
I don’t know about you, but doesn’t this one feel like it might be shaping up for the third consecutive PGA miss in a row? The real question for right now, though, isn’t what the favorites are — because we know that. The question is… how do we rank them?
Rankings:
9. The Post — The least amount of nominations of any of the nominees. It felt like they nominated it out of respect for Spielberg and nothing else. People like the film and respect it, but no one loves it, which means it’s not getting the number one votes to contend here. If you had to eyeball it and say which movie was the least likely to win this category, this would be the first choice. This has the exact same nominations as The Blind Side. It’s not happening, guys.
8. Darkest Hour — Six nominations is very solid, but again, if you were taking off the films you didn’t think would win, this would be off really fast. Who loves this enough to make this a top #1 or #2 choice? Not many people. No way this makes it past the first or second round of voting.
7. Phantom Thread — Six nominations, like Darkest Hour. This will, unlike the previous two films, have hardcore fans. I’d have this rated as my #2 movie. That said, that doesn’t help it, since my #1 is gonna be in contention all the way through. But it should have enough votes to be more of a factor than the first film off. It still shouldn’t hang around that long, though. (The Director nomination does mean there is support for this.)
6. Dunkirk — Because, on the eyeball test… where’s the love for this? Where are the #1 votes coming from? Everyone really liked this and respects it, but no one’s putting it at the top of their ballots. It has the second most amount of nominations, but people are responding to the technical achievements of this movie. It’s not really a factor in a race like this. Doesn’t feel like one, anyway. On nominations tally, it should be top five, given the Director and Editing nomination, but I’m just not feeling this one. I don’t see this going third on the majority of ballots. Don’t see it.
5. Call Me By Your Name — It’s the passionate love people will have for this that’ll keep it through. The first round of voting involves strictly #1 votes. After that, it’s what movies are #2 on the most ballots of eliminated films. This will be top three for a lot of people, and that’ll keep it around longer than most people realize. Without a Director or Editing nomination, there’s only so high you can rank it, but this feels like it should crack the top five. And if not, it’s sixth. Either way, not gonna win.
4. Get Out — This was a sneaky contender for the win for me for a while. Now… not totally feeling it. It’ll get a lot of 1s, and a fair amount of 2s and 3s. But I think the precursors have generally spoken, and while people love that this movie was nominated, no one really wants to vote for it for Best Picture. It’s more a ‘glad you’re here’ kind of thing. If this got nominated for Editing, I’d have felt like we had something cooking. Now — it’ll be there, but I don’t think it’ll get that far. The #1s up top are gonna loom large. There’s a small chance this doesn’t get the #1s to last past the first round or two of voting. Very small chance, but it’s there. Can’t accumulate those #2 and #3 votes if you don’t have the 1s up top.
3. Lady Bird — This’ll have the 1s. This’ll have the 2s and 3s. If anything’s the upset contender, this is the one. This feels like the one. Just like Moonlight, all it has to show for its precursors is a Globe win. That said… doubt it happens, but if I’m looking to the surprise choice that the most people like to win over the main two… this is it. Can’t put it higher than third without anything more than the one precursor, but it has everything else you’d want except the Editing nomination. I think this is your spoiler.
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri — In a way, this has the most precursors… but SAG and the Globe aren’t so meaningful. The BAFTA win is big, and I’ve felt all along that this might be the eventual winner. I still won’t put it as the frontrunner just because the PGA still matters most (and the overall number of nominations isn’t to be ignored), but I do think this is closer to a win than you might think. We’re definitely looking at a down-to-the-wire type race. This also has the Editing nomination you look for. It checks all the boxes except the PGA win. So for now, no favorite. But it doesn’t need to be the favorite to win.
1. The Shape of Water — Has the PGA, has BFCA, will win Best Director, has 13 overall nominations. That sounds like a frontrunner to me. The only major precursor it lost was BAFTA. SAG I don’t count as much, and the Globe is just a benchmark. I mean, yeah, that benchmark did alert me to Three Billboards likely being the winner, something I still feel is more than likely the case. But based on everything else, this is currently the frontrunner and has to be beaten. It could happen, and I probably think it will happen, but right now, you gotta beat this film. It’s the most broadly liked film of the bunch, given how many nominations it got, so you gotta beat it.
– – – – – – – – – –
AGAIN. SAG is MORE meaningful than you realize. EVERY BP Winner of the last 20 years has been NOMINATED for the award. Akd it’s a 50/50 for the winner (Unless it’s something with no actual chance, like Hidden Figures). Plus, The Shape Of Water WASN’T nominated, while Three Billboards won the award. People said Gravity was winning in 2014, No SAG nod = It didn’t happen (that year won 12 Years A Slave). People said The Revenant was winning in 2016 No SAG nod = it didn’t happen (Spotlight surprisingly got the award over that year’s PGA winner and favorite The Big Short)
Last year it was La La Land but again, No SAG nod = it didn’t happen (While Figures won that year, Moonlight was nominated and went on to win the whole thing).
Just because of SAG, it’s Three Billboards the major favorite.
March 1, 2018 at 9:25 pm
*One mistake.
in 2013, American Huste won, but 12YAS was still nominated and won the whole thing
March 1, 2018 at 9:28 pm
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