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Oscars 2018: BFCA (Critics Choice) Nominations

Critics Choice time.

After the Globes, which pretty much told me this is a wide open race, BFCA is here to give us a little more clarity. They’re generally pretty populist, but do tend to hit a good deal more than not. They feel like they get most of the Best Picture nominees a lot of the time, and they always have six-to-seven acting nominees in a category, which gives us the broad lay of the land.

Usually a fair amount of where the Academy is going is laid out on this table, and it’s just a matter of which ones are gonna end up being extraneous. So I’m interested to see what they’ve done.

Here are your Critics Choice nominees for 2018:

Best Picture

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

The Favourite

First Man

Green Book

If Beale Street Could Talk

Mary Poppins Returns

Roma

A Star Is Born

Vice

This seems to be a pretty good mix of everything we’ve seen so far. We’re not at the part where I go back and look, but this feels like NBR plus Globes plus AFI. First Man is the only new addition there.

I still don’t get the Black Panther business, but if anyone was gonna put it on, BFCA was the group. So I’m not remotely surprised about that. The PGA will help tell the tale on that one. And then we’ll see if the Academy actually goes there.

Otherwise, it feels like Green Book, Roma and A Star Is Born are Best Picture locks. BlacKkKlansman has been prevalent throughout, so we’ll see if the PGA backs that one up. That could be a tougher sell than you’d think. Beale Street seems pretty solid for a nomination. First Man could go either way. I’ll err on the side of no at the moment, but we’ll see where that goes. Mary Poppins seems like an easy one to sneak on. Vice is 50/50 but leaning positive at the moment.

The Favourite… are they gonna go there? I have no idea. That’s the most interesting one of all to me. I wanna see what BFCA does with it in the acting categories. But yeah, I guess it could get nominated. Let’s see.

Best Director

Damien Chazelle, First Man

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Adam McKay, Vice

Seven nominees. Okay. Well, these are the ones they liked the most, I guess.

Cuaron, Cooper and Farrelly seem like easy DGA nominees. McKay seems likely but not a lock. Spike would be cool to see and I hope they do it. Chazelle, maybe. It’s a great job he did that’s been under the radar for the season thus far. Yorgos… hilarious. Absolutely hilarious. If he made it on a list of just five I’d be more impressed, but still… they nominated Yorgos. Sometimes 2018 isn’t all garbage.

Best Actor

Christian Bale, Vice

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Ryan Gosling, First Man

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Isn’t this every single person who is basically in the running? Gosling shows up for the first time here, but they’ve established already that they loved First Man, so why would you think they’d leave him out?

No love for Hugh Jackman and The Front Runner, but I think we all felt like he’d be a fringe contender throughout. And by that I mean, I felt that. Since this is all a vacuum and I’m mostly talking to myself anyway.

John David Washington isn’t a serious contender until he gets SAG. Lucas Hedges is off here, but that doesn’t rule him out. Who else is there… no one, right? So yeah, your Best Actor category is likely in here somewhere.

Best guess? Bale, Cooper, Viggo for sure. Then probably Willem and Hawke or Malick, depending. But we’ll see what SAG does. They announce Wednesday.

Best Actress

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Glenn Close, The Wife

Toni Colette, Hereditary

Olivia Colman, The Favorite

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Yeesh. Is this where Best Actress is at this year? This is the weakest category since 2014.

You realize that looking at this, there is a legitimate chance Lady Gaga wins Best Actress, right?

Nicole Kidman is the cast off here, for Destroyer. That felt like a difficult sell for critics, so she can easily get SAG and be right back in contention. And Rosamund Pike they were touting, but that felt unlikely (though I’ve yet to see her movie or Kidman’s so I can’t properly say how much of a contender either is). Felicity Jones is nowhere to be found. Either the movie is landing too late or it’s just not that great. I never took the Carey Mulligan possibility seriously. Widows has gotten nothing to this point, so I’m not surprised to see no Viola. That seems like more of a cool crime film than an acting showcase. Who’s left? Elsie Fisher? Did we think that was gonna happen here? I think BFCA has lesser categories for performances like hers.

So yeah, at this point… Gaga, McCarthy, I guess Colman if that’s what we’re doing, Close seems as close of a lock to anything at this point, and then Blunt. I don’t see Colette actually being a serious contender there at the moment. And with that category, who wins? Looks like Gaga’s to lose. So this will be an interesting year.

Two points to make — Aparicio, her movie comes out Friday, so I’ll see it then, but I don’t know if she’s SAG, so I’m not gonna know just how big a contender she is maybe until the last minute. She may not get SAG because she isn’t a member and then still be a contender for the final category.

The other point — why are they considering Colman a lead and Weisz and Stone not? I haven’t gotten to Supporting Actress yet, but I can assume one or both will be on there. It feels like Colman is the supporting performance while the other two are the leads. So it’s weird that they’re pushing them opposite of what they are. But it seems like they love the movie, so I’m curious to see if SAG and PGA follow suit.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Sam Elliott finally shows up. His was the only performance that was talked about that actually made me feel like he should 100% be nominated. So I’m glad he’s got something. Hopefully SAG goes his way too.

Ali is a lead, but I get why they’d put him supporting for nominations purposes. He’s basically a mortal lock for a nomination at this point and theoretically could win.

Chalamet has shown up most places and with a weaker crop than usual, may get his second nomination in as many years. Grant has also shown up everywhere and seems likely. Driver’s been pretty consistent too. Wonder if that holds up throughout the rest of the race. Jordan — doubt that carries anywhere but here.

Who else is there? They’ve put the two Vice supporting people on lists, but I’m not sure if that happens. I’ll need to see the movie to know for sure. Otherwise, this feels ripe for a curveball, with someone coming out of nowhere in a film they really like. Not sure who that is yet, but I’m gonna keep my eyes peeled for something of that nature to potentially come through.

I don’t even know what I could say about an actual category. Everything says at the moment it’s those first five names. So I guess that’s what we use as a base and mold it going forward based on SAG and BAFTA.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice

Claire Foy, First Man

Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel, Weisz, The Favourite

And there are your two Favourite nominations. I wanna see where they end up going in the end. SAG is Wednesday, and that’ll tell us, but something tells me they haven’t locked exactly where they want people to go until they see the lay of the land. But yeah, I expect all three to get nominated in year like this, the only question is where, and which makes the most sense for them to try to get a win out of it.

Otherwise — there’s the Kidman nomination. Gonna be hard to keep her off with two performances in contention and not a lot of competition out there. Arguably this is the tougher category, but the role is closer to something they’d nominate. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her get the double SAG nomination on Wednesday and make it way more difficult for us to figure out which, if either, gets knocked off come nominations time.

Foy makes sense, since First Man’s hit everything of note so far. And she also seems likely anyway given her year and the nature of the role. Amy Adams is coming on strong and seems to be a major player in this category. Regina King’s been the constant all the way through, so no surprise there.

At this point, depending on where Weisz and Stone end up, this looks like a good deal of your final category. Who else is there? Vera Farmiga’s gone nowhere, and if Jackman’s not getting anything, she certainly won’t. I’d like Thomasin McKenzie to get more love in these categories, but without SAG, she’s not going anywhere, and also BFCA has a young actor category, so that’s where she’ll be on this show.

I’m gonna keep an eye out here for someone to potentially jump up. Don’t know who it is yet (since I watch all the movies first and wrap up my own feelings on them before I move into figuring out awards stuff. Don’t expect me to sit and actually look through all this stuff until January 1 at the earliest), but there might be someone.

Best Young Actor/Actress

Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace

Ed Oxenbould, Wildlife

Millicent Simmonds, A Quiet Place

Amandla Stenberg, The Hate U Give

Sunny Suljic, Mid90s

Oh, there’s all the usual suspects. What’s funny is, I’d argue that three of these people (Fisher, McKenzie and Stenberg) were good enough to make a legitimate case in the lead categories (maybe supporting for McKenzie). But yeah, this is cool. Though I’d swap off the Wildlife kid for whoever played the creepy sister in Hereditary. With the clicks.

Best Acting Ensemble

Black Panther

Crazy Rich Asians

The Favourite

Vice

Widows

Yeah, that about makes sense. Congrats to Crazy Rich Asians for winning this in advance.

Best Original Screenplay

Eighth Grade

The Favourite

First Reformed

Green Book

A Quiet Place

Roma

Vice

Think you included enough screenplays?

It’s too early to make any deliberations on this, but Green Book, The Favourite and Vice seem like locks here at the Oscars. The rest is open for discussion and could go a lot of different ways. But I’d be surprised if more than one of those three didn’t make it.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

A Star Is Born

Black Panther… whatever. The other five, all solid. And I’d expect three to four of them to be nominated at the Oscars. Bradley Cooper could legit end up with four nominations. You realize that, right?

Best Editing

The Favourite

First Man

Roma

A Star Is Born

Vice

Widows

There’s Widows. Too little too late, but at least it’s getting something of note.

But sure. Editing. Cool. All of these seem worthy.

Best Cinematography

Black Panther

The Favourite

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Roma

A Star Is Born

Was Black Panther nominated because it’s Rachel Morrison? I’d argue that it didn’t look that great, but that’s just me. But it’s the critics. They don’t go deep into this. That’s why we have ASC. They’ll nominate Cold War, which is far and away better than at least two or three of these other nominees.

Roma looks gorgeous, and the only question is if they nominate Cuaron doing his own cinematography. Star Is Born looked solid, but I’m not sure I’d nominate it. Beale Street, yes. First Man, I wanna see again before I decide. I liked what they did though. So probably. And Favourite looked good, but not sure I’d end up with it in my final five.

Best Song

“All the Stars,” from Black Panther

“Girl in the Movies,” from Dumplin’

“I’ll Fight,” from RBG

“The Place Where Lost Things Go,” from Mary Poppins Returns

“Shallow,” from A Star Is Born

“Trip a Little Light Fantastic,” from Mary Poppins Returns

Curious to see what the eligibles list looks like, since we know Star Is Born has this category all locked up. But I wanna see what other songs from that movie are contending against it, and how many Poppins songs get submitted. Because you already know two of the nominees right off the bat. At least two. After that, we’ll see. But that’s two. Until they list all the eligible songs, I’m not speaking any further on this category.

Best Score

Black Panther

First Man

Green Book

If Beale Street Could Talk

Isle of Dogs

Mary Poppins Returns

Green Book I think is ineligible at the Oscars. And Black Panther — seriously, guys? All I’m gonna say is, thank god for guilds.

Otherwise, First Man, solid, Beale Street, very good, Isle of Dogs, I will never turn down a Desplat, and Poppins makes a lot of sense, sight unseen. Too early to tell, and I don’t go through scores until January, so I’m currently not educated enough to make any statements about this one.

Best Production Design

Black Panther

Crazy Rich Asians

The Favourite

First Man

Mary Poppins Returns

Roma

So that’s what they’ve done? Just nominated Black Panther everywhere? That was the move?

Thank god for guilds.

The Favourite, yes. Roma looks like it’ll be nominated. Mary Poppins too. First Man too. So yeah. That’s four. The other two are just for show.

Best Costume Design

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary, Queen of Scots

Mary Queen of Scots, of course. The Favourite, of course. Poppins, sure. Bohemian Rhapsody… is that the first… oh, second nomination. That’s all it got. Makes sense. That seems like the kind of movie the public likes more the critics do.

Best Hair and Makeup

Black Panther

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Mary, Queen of Scots

Suspiria

Vice

Vice is gonna win this (at the Oscars, most likely), but Suspiria 100% should. Baby hands, man.

Best Visual Effects

Avengers: Infinity War

Black Panther

First Man

Mary Poppins Returns

Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Ready Player One

Oh, they nominated Fallout, that’s cool. I wanna see which of these make the final Academy shortlist. They’re all on the longlist, but that’ll be whittled down in a week or two.

Best Animated Feature

The Grinch

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Mirai

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Well, those are all your major contenders, minus Smallfoot, which you can’t rule out with the Academy. Mirai is on here, which means it could happen. Not holding my breath with them, but it’s there.

Best Action Movie

Avengers: Infinity War

Black Panther

Deadpool 2

Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Ready Player One

Widows

Sure. Widows is just far and away better than everything else here, but I’m not sure it qualifies as a pure action movie in today’s day and age.

Best Comedy

Crazy Rich Asians

Deadpool 2

The Death of Stalin

The Favourite

Game Night

Sorry the Bother You

Sure. Three of these are great, one of them is a rom com, one of them is solid and the other is Deadpool.

Best Actor in a Comedy

Christian Bale, Vice

Jason Bateman, Game Night

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie

Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool 2

Lakeith Stanfield, Sorry to Bother You

Oh man, that’s where John C. Reilly gets on. Well, that about tells you where that movie is headed. BAFTAs and nothing else.

It’s always unfair every year when they put someone like Bale on here with Jason Bateman. And they clearly don’t give a shit, do they?

Best Actress in a Comedy

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

Rachel McAdams, Game Night

Charlize Theron, Tully

Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians

Sure.

Best Sci-Fi or Horror Movie

Annihilation

Halloween

Hereditary

A Quiet Place

Suspiria

Suspiria or go fuck yourself.

Best Foreign Language Film

Burning

Capernaum

Cold War

Roma

Shoplifters

Wasn’t this the Globes list too? Man, wouldn’t that be easy, if we got a singular category all the way through.

Still don’t know what Roma being in does for us. Does it automatically win because it’s in the Best Picture race, or do they avoid it because it’s nominated in the “big boy” categories? Remember Pan’s Labyrinth? Won three Oscars and lost Foreign Language Film to The Lives of Others.

– – – – – – – – –

So those are your BFCA nominations. Not gonna put too much stock into them, because SAG is Wednesday. That’ll really tell us where everything is at.

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7 responses

  1. MasonEvansSr

    The guilds are going to disappoint you on Black Panther. It’s probably gonna be the nomination leader at the Oscars. But I’m not sure what’s wrong with it in your book. At the very least the score sounded great.

    Colman is supposedly in lead because she wanted to be in lead. I’m not sure if that was the best choice though.

    I can’t see Roma not winning Best Foreign Language Film if it’s a top 3 Best Picture contender and Best Director winner (which it is). The Academy knows how ridiculous that would look. Pan’s Labyrinth only got a single above-the-line nomination. Its loss was surprising, but not anywhere near as surprising as a loss for Roma would be.

    December 10, 2018 at 11:20 pm

    • Yet another reason why the Best Animated/Doc/Foreign Language categories are so detrimental. If your film is so great that it could actually triumph in the top categories, its victory in “lesser” categories soon gets viewed as excessive, leading to consolation prizes for other films.

      December 11, 2018 at 12:33 am

  2. I’m not sure why you aren’t sold on The Favourite getting in for Best Picture. It’s hit pretty much everything, it has Fox Searchlight behind it, and it seems to be pretty unanimously loved. (Also, Colman is lead because she’s the queen. She outranks Stone and Weisz. All there is to it.)

    And yeah, Black Panther is getting in for Picture. Personally, I’ve been on board with that since February. It’s been in my top 10 all year, and it’s not like I’m a Marvel diehard. It’s just a damn good movie.

    I will say, I wish to God Suspiria had gone over bigger. I loved it, especially on the second viewing, and I think Tilda Swinton got fucking robbed this season (you can’t tell me Nicole Kidman was better in Boy Erased. Give me a goddamn break), but I guess it was too much of a niche item to gain mass approval. Oh well.

    December 11, 2018 at 12:03 am

    • So…Colman is like Meryl Streep in August: Osage County? (Julia Roberts was totally a co-lead there at least.)

      December 11, 2018 at 12:28 am

      • Pretty much. The whole question of lead and supporting is a damned tricky one and someday I’ll try and answer it.

        December 11, 2018 at 12:30 am

    • Wouldn’t Swinton fit more in Best Actress? She plays a co-lead, a major supporting character, and a very minor supporting character. Combined, that’s leading, methinks. (Peter Sellers inhabited three major supporting roles in Dr. Strangelove.)

      December 11, 2018 at 12:30 am

      • You could make that argument, certainly. For me, Blanc isn’t quite a co-lead (unless you’re thinking of Klemperer, who kinda-sorta is, since “he” dominates the scenes he’s in).

        Honestly, I tend to go with my gut in these situations, and my gut says she’s Supporting, which is what the studio was pushing her as. I can live with it, especially given how overstuffed lead Actress is this year (I don’t agree with Mike at all about this being a weak year for it, but I loved Carey Mulligan in Wildlife and Close in The Wife, so).

        December 11, 2018 at 12:34 am

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