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Oscars 2018: SAG Nominations

Okay, so SAG announced today. Which means this is it. The extent of the acting contenders is just about told to us. BAFTA might illuminate some more in a month, but until then — this is what we’ve got. These are the contenders we have to chew on until then. Shit’s getting real, guys. Which is good, because now I can finish watching stuff and really be ready to go in January.

So without further ado, here are your SAG nominees:

Best Ensemble

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

Crazy Rich Asians

A Star Is Born

I believe I had 3/5 of that list. I was telling people at the office there was no way Black Panther, Crazy Rich Asians or A Star Is Born would be left off. The only other declarative statement I made (to be determined, since I’m finding this out as we go) was that The Favourite wouldn’t be here and would just get the acting nominations. So let’s see how that goes.

Mostly what I’m getting at is that SAG is really obvious when it comes to this category.

Which, by the way, is meaningless pretty much until maybe looking at Best Picture at the very end of it all, but for the most part — ehh.

Best Actor

Christian Bale, Vice

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Whoa. No Ethan Hawke. Why am I not totally surprised. SAG is huge.

Bale was always a lock, Viggo was always a lock, Cooper was always a lock. Malek was probable for SAG, and at this point I think he’s a solid contender for the final category. Washington I’m not sure makes a final category but makes complete sense here.

Ethan Hawke is not out yet, but this does hurt him a bit. Willem Dafoe is by no means out yet, but does need BAFTA to remain in contention. Gosling is probably out unless BAFTA goes crazy for that movie. Hawke may be able to get on without a BAFTA, but I feel like the other two definitely need it.

This effectively eliminates the fringe contenders like Hugh Jackman and Lucas Hedges, who have hit basically nothing (ro actually nothing) throughout the race. This takes us down to pretty much seven people, with Gosling a very distant eighth.

And looking at this, because you have to start considering it — Viggo vs. Bale, right? Unless they go all in on Cooper, which seems unlikely but is possible. Bale, when I saw his movie, I thought, “This might be too comedic for them to vote for.” But in this category… it’s all possible. Viggo will be interesting to see if they go there. And Malek remains a possible contender there too. This will be interesting. Dafoe is the only one who could make a final category interesting, vote-wise. Save him, I think it’s Bale vs. Viggo, and maybe Cooper if he starts picking up wins.

Best Actress

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Glenn Close, The Wife

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Well, those are the people that have hit everything else thus far. This isn’t remotely surprising.

Also, remember what I said a few days ago… Best Actress winner Lady Gaga is a legitimate possibility at the moment. I’m not really sure who beats her right now. But it’s December. So we’ll wait and see.

But I don’t know who else there is at this point. Yalitza Aparicio maybe. Saoirse Ronan needs a bit BAFTA win, but I don’t know if she’s ever been nominated without SAG. But that’s it. They seem to be all about Nicole Kidman in Supporting, so unless that’s happening, I don’t know who else can make it on.

Which means, until someone enters this race, now I have to start looking at where this is gonna go. Is Mary Poppins gonna win for a second time? Melissa McCarthy for a performance people think is good but no one is really pushing for? Glenn Close needs a hell of a push to make that happen. Colman and Gaga seem to be the clubhouse leaders, and one of them arguably should be supporting. You’re telling me they’re not gonna jump all over Gaga? Which would be historical, given that Janet Gaynor and Judy Garland have both been nominated (and lost, to Luise Rainer and Grace Kelly, respectively) for this same performance.

It’s gonna be an interesting month, guys.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Yeah, those seemed like the five from BFCA who would make it.

Glad Sam Elliott is back with a vengeance. Ali was always locked. Grant has hit everything and should hit BAFTA no problem. Chalamet seems pretty strong at this point, given the nature of the role and everything else. And Driver’s hit most of the stuff, and clearly they liked his movie, with Washington already being nominated. So yeah, that seemed like the five for SAG.

The only other contenders here that we definitely know of — Vice. That’s really it. And they don’t seem likely at all, having seen them. Though I’m not ruling out the back-to-back Rockwell nomination just because they love him. This looks like your final category, unless someone jumps up to knock off Driver and/or Chalamet (unlikely on the latter, possible on the former). Seems like this one is pretty set. I’ll keep an eye out to see if any major Best Picture movies are coming on strong, because those could sneak on a nomination in a category like this, but otherwise, this looks like it. I guess technically Michael B. Jordan has BFCA, but does anyone really think that’s going down? I trust the old white guy contingent to vote Rockwell over Jordan. But we’ll see.

And I think that means either Ali wins his second or Sam Elliott wins. That’s cool. It’s early, but this one’s looking to be fun.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice

Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place

Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Uh oh. They went off book. Emily Blunt twice. Which means we’re gonna be flying blind a bit in this one come next month.

Interesting Margot Robbie is on but Saoirse Ronan isn’t. Which tells me it’s a popularity nomination more than anything else. If she doesn’t get any other nomination, then I don’t think she makes the final list. Which means this could go like last year… 3/5 of a match with the final category. I suspect The Favourite is set, and Amy Adams seems likely, but I think we have some open… oh wait.

Regina King! She didn’t make it? Yeah, that’s not standing. Maybe it will, but if she gets BAFTA, she is on. I still think she’s probably on. But man, that would be a massive misfire for whoever’s campaigning for that movie if someone who seemed like the lock going in doesn’t make it.

Claire Foy… wasn’t totally sold on her, but she’s still firmly in contention. Might need BAFTA though. The Globes are somewhat helpful in Supporting, catching those sneak-ons, but BAFTA would be very helpful for Foy.

Also, no Nicole Kidman! Wow! That means she got neither at SAG. Very curious to see how that one ends up. I suspect BAFTA nominates her at least once. If they nominate her twice, then we’re really just up shit’s creek. But yeah, that’s three people who aren’t here, two of which could and may be nominated. Oh man, it’s an interesting one.

You can’t even begin to suspect who could win this without seeing the final category. Hard to see Weisz and Stone as a… favourite (get ready for a bunch of those throughout the next month, not even just from me) over the other, which means this one’s currently wide open.

Best Stunt Ensemble

Ant-Man and the Wasp

Avengers: Infinity War

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Black Panther

Mission: Impossible — Fallout

Cool. I like that this category exists. No idea how they adjudicate it or even how I’d opine upon it, but I’m glad.

– – – – – – – – –

And now for the TV stuff, which I don’t care about.

Best Stunt Ensemble

GLOW

Marvel’s Daredevil

Jack Ryan

The Walking Dead

Westworld

Cool.

Best Ensemble in a Drama Series

The Americans

Better Call Saul

The Handmaid’s Tale

Ozark

This Is Us

I like how people are pretending to care about The Americans now that it’s going away. That’s the move in 2018, isn’t it? What, FilmStruck, that thing we knew about but would never pay for is going away? OUTRAGE! I need it to be there at all times so I can continue to not buy it!

Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series

Atlanta

Barry

GLOW

The Kominsky Method

The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Sure. Is the Kominsky Method good or are they just nominating it because it’s Douglas and Arkin?

Best Actor in a Drama Series

Jason Bateman, Ozark

Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us

Joseph Fiennes, The Handmaid’s Tale

John Krasinski, Jack Ryan

Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul

I love that they always put in a token network show on these lists. And that they nominated Krasinski so he’ll have a reason to be there with his wife.

Best Actress in a Drama Series

Julia Garner, Ozark

Laura Linney, Ozark

Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale

Sandra Oh, Killing Eve

Robin Wright, House of Cards

This seems lead and supporting at the same time, right? Never saw Ozark, but I imagine one of them is lead and the other is supporting. That’s also like five or six in a row for Robin Wright. Don’t think she’s ever won.

Best Actor in a Comedy Series

Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method

Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method

Bill Hader, Barry

Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Henry Winkler, Barry

Oh, this is definitely lead and supporting, because Winkler and Shalhoub are here. No way they’re both leads.

Best Actress in a Comedy Series

Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Alison Brie, GLOW

Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Jane Fonda, Grace and Frankie

Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie

Does anyone but Brosnahan even have a shot at this?

Best Actor in a Miniseries or a TV Movie

Antonio Banderas, Genius: Picasso

Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace

Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal

Anthony Hopkins, King Lear

Bill Pullman, The Sinner

Criss or Grant, right?

Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Amy Adams, Sharp Objects

Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora

Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects

Penelope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace

Emma Stone, Maniac

Cool category.

– – – – – – – – – –

So yeah, that’s SAG. Interesting turn of events. They tried switching things up this year to make the season more surprising. So maybe that’s what it’s doing. We’ll see. So far, seems like status quo. The only real surprises are the lack of a Nicole Kidman nomination and Ethan Hawke being left off. Oh, and Regina King. Otherwise, all kind of as-expected. A lot can change in a month.

I’ve got… what have I got… Roma, Destroyer, Ben Is Back, Bird Box, Mary Poppins, The Mule, A Private War and Welcome to Marwen left before I’ve seen the main “contenders.” Also, let me tell you, slowly losing hope on having a solid top ten list. At this point, maybe I can get to 7 I’m comfortable with. But I guess we’ll figure that out.

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One response

  1. Mason Evans Sr.

    I think you are definitely misdiagnosing the state of the Best Actor race. Everything I’ve seen indicates that Cooper is the heavy favorite and that Malek has the opportunity to upset. Bale is in a movie that will probably be divisive and won’t make a lot of money and he’s going for a second Oscar, which is always hard to get. Mortensen is in a controversial movie and he hasn’t exactly been campaigning well.

    I really can’t see Sam Elliott winning without a Globe nomination, and I think you are definitely underrating the possibility of a Richard E. Grant win (he’s probably a lock for the BAFTA).

    Weisz and Stone are going to split votes in Best Supporting Actress. Adams is probably the only winner that makes sense there now.

    December 13, 2018 at 2:22 pm

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