Oscars 2018: 76th Golden Globes Predictions
The Golden Globes are tonight. Completely forgot that was happening. But also that has to do with the fact that I was otherwise engaged the past few weeks. Still, a nice surprise to get home and realize, “Oh yeah, I’ve got something to watch tonight.”
I never put any effort into these predictions, so I’ll just write them up now before the show. It’ll be interesting to see if they wait until the football game is over or straight up just switch over. Probably not the worst situation to be in, if you’re NBC.
Anyway, let’s see what we’ve got here. The results shouldn’t matter so much, but they will kick off Oscar season proper, being our first precursors out there before BFCA next weekend. And then it’ll just be guild nominations galore the next ten days. Can’t wait.
Anyway, this is my reminder of what the hell is nominated tonight and what I’m pulling out of my ass as to what I think will win.
Best Picture – Drama
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
I like that they nominated Beale Street. I’m assuming they go all in on Star Is Born, unless they wanna do the Barry Jenkins double up. I can’t imagine it’s any of the other three. Sounds to me like it’ll be one or the other. Gun to my head, they do Star Is Born. But we’ll see.
Of note, most or all of these should be nominated for Best Picture, so that’s good, I guess.
Best Picture – Musical/Comedy
Crazy Rich Asians
Mary Poppins Returns
Green Book should win, but I’m not ruling out The Favourite. Can’t see them going for anything else, unless this is “Woke Globes” and they’re straight up gonna do Black Panther and Crazy Rich Asians. My guess is Green Book first, The Favourite second. If The Favourite wins, it becomes a player for Best Picture. Not that I think it ever could, but it’s getting nominated all over the place, for way more than I ever thought it could. So I’m not ruling that out. Poppins seems to be the empty nominee (all nominations, no wins), and Vice would be a statement by them. But Big Short didn’t win, so I’m not expecting that. I’ll go with Green Book. That seems like obvious choice.
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice
I don’t think Farrelly wins even if Green Book wins Picture. Cooper makes sense to go along with the Star Is Born Picture win, especially if they’re not gonna give him Best Actor. Not to mention, they love giving this to actors.
Cuaron is the one that makes the most sense to me. That movie feels extremely like their cup of tea. I’d put Spike as a distant third choice.
Also, I like that they liked Vice. It’s not getting that kind of support everywhere.
My guess, Cuaron or Cooper wins this. I’ll favor Cuaron, but wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see Cooper take it.
Best Actor – Drama
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Oh, well shit. This is gonna be Cooper, isn’t it?
Hedges has no momentum, Malek would be a real statement, but in Drama, that’s a tall order. Washington seems unlikely, and Dafoe… don’t think that movie’s out there enough.
So okay, that makes sense to me. Star Is Born wins Picture, Roma wins Director, Cooper wins Actor. That feels like how this would normally play out. So that’s how I’m going here.
Best Actor – Musical/Comedy
Christian Bale, Vice
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun
John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie
It’s Bale v. Viggo. Gotta assume Bale, but if Viggo’s making a legitimate play for it, it starts here.
Redford doesn’t feel like someone they’d go for, Miranda would be a starfucker bet and not the kind of thing they normally do here, and Reilly is just a filler nominee.
I’m thinking Bale, and if it’s not him, it’s Viggo. This seems pretty straightforward, and is the reason they backed themselves into a corner in Drama.
Best Actress – Drama
Glenn Close, The Wife
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Rosamund Pike, A Private War
It’s Gaga. I mean, who else is left? Kidman? No one saw The Wife, let’s face it. Pike’s movie isn’t really out there, and McCarthy has no momentum.
Gaga is the one lock I could have told you before nominations were announced. I’m not even guessing an alternate. If it’s not Gaga, it’s a shocker, no matter who it is.
Best Actress – Musical/Comedy
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron, Tully
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians
Colman’s the only one with a chance in a final category. They almost have to give it to her. If it’s not Colman, they’re abstaining from the Oscar race. Blunt could win because it’s Poppins, but again, it’s an abstention if that’s the case. Wu would look nice, but would they do it? Theron would come out of nowhere, and Fisher would be nice, but I feel like they wanna guide the race, so I think that means they’re gonna go Colman. And I’d say Blunt as a secondary choice. Though I guess Blunt could be a primary, knowing them. It’ll be one or the other.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Ali’s the only one that feels like he has a case. Driver is good, but for a win? Rockwell won last year and probably just got nominated because they like him. Chalamet… maybe? Grant could win, that would certainly be an interesting start to this race.
It’s really looking like Ali wins this en route to two in three years. This is a pretty weak category this year. For once.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
They’re not gonna be able to properly split the Favourite nominees, which means Regina King takes this easily. Foy maybe, because they like her. Doubt Adams gets any traction in this.
It’s King vs. the field in this one. I don’t know who I’d call the second choice. Weisz or Stone. But how do you pick between them?
That split could be what gives Regina King a win at the Oscars. We’ll see how it starts.
If Beale Street Could Talk
It’ll be one of the top three. My guess is Green Book, then Beale Street. Screenplay tends to go wherever they want. Theoretically Cuaron could win, but that would only be if they loved Roma. If Cuaron wins Director, Screenplay and Foreign Language, that means it would have been their Best Picture winner and everything else was a compromise vote.
Vice… I don’t see it happening. I’m thinking Green Book or Jenkins. I’m not sure why I don’t think The Favourite is a top two choice, but I just do. Could easily win. I have no fucking clue. I’m thinking Green Book. That makes sense. Picture, Supporting Actor, Screenplay.
Best Original Score
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place
I honestly don’t care. Desplat won last year and has two wins. This is Beltrami’s first nomination, and theoretically he could win, because they do whatever the fuck they want in this category. Black Panther could win as a token show of support for that. I’m thinking First Man probably takes it. Based on nothing. Honestly I have no idea.
Best Original Song
“All the Stars,” from Black Panther
“Revelation,” from Boy Erased
“Girl in the Movies,” from Dumplin’
“Requiem for a Private War,” from A Private War
“Shallow,” from A Star Is Born
Best Animated Feature
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Isle of Dogs feels like them. Spider-Verse doesn’t feel like it translates to the Foreign Press, but maybe. Isle of Dogs or Incredibles. It should be one or the other.
Best Foreign Language Film
Never Look Away
Roma should win. If it’s not Roma, then I guess Shoplifters?
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And now… TV. Oh boy!
Best TV Series – Drama
Killing Eve wins this, right? Isn’t that the big trendy show now?
Or does The Americans win on the way out?
Best TV Series – Musical or Comedy
The Good Place
The Kominsky Method
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Maisel, did it win last year? Does it matter? It’ll probably win now, right? Or maybe The Good Place. Those feel like the two “hip” choices for them.
Best Actor in a TV Series – Drama
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Stephan James, Homecoming
Richard Madden, Bodyguard
Billy Porter, Pose
Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Based on nothing, I’ll say Richard Madden, though Matthew Rhys also makes sense for them.
Best Actor in a TV Series – Musical or Comedy
Sacha Baron Cohen, Who Is America?
Jim Carrey, Kidding
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Bill Hader, Barry
I hope it’s Sacha Baron Cohen. If it’s not him, I don’t care. I’m cool with all these people, but Cohen should win purely for what he’ll say when he goes up there.
Best Actress in a TV Series – Drama
Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Julia Roberts, Homecoming
Keri Russell, The Americans
Balfe is always a red herring each year. Moss won last year. Oh is hosting, so I imagine they’ll just do that? I’m getting the sense that the Americans nominations are all red herrings and they’ll take home one token award and nothing else.
Best Actress in a TV Series – Musical or Comedy
Kristen Bell, The Good Place
Candice Bergen, Murphy Brown
Alison Brie, Glow
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Debra Messing, Will & Grace
Brosnahan should win. Or maybe it’s Bell. Doubt any of the others win this.
Best Miniseries or TV Movie
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Escape at Dannemora
A Very English Scandal
Dannemora would be cool, but I assume it’s Versace or Sharp Objects, right?
Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie
Antonio Banderas, Genius: Picasso
Daniel Bruhl, The Alienist
Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose
Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal
Criss won all the other awards, right? So him?
Grant would be cool. Just to see him relevant again.
Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie
Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora
Connie Britton, Dirty John
Laura Dern, The Tale
Regina King, Seven Seconds
If King doesn’t win up there, she’ll win this, right? Or no, Adams wins this. Or Dern. One or the other. Let’s say Adams.
Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Miniseries or TV Movie
Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Edgar Ramirez, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal
Henry Winkler, Barry
Uhh… Winkler? Let’s root for him. We all love him.
Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries or TV Movie
Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
Penelope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Thandie Newton, Westworld
Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale
Clarkson, right? Let’s say her.
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Globes are on in like, an hour or something. Depending on how long this game goes. Also, the Release Calendar article is coming soon too. Finishing that up now.