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Oscars 2018: 76th Golden Globe Awards

Golden Globes recap.

The show wasn’t particularly entertaining. But I figured that would be the case, given the hosts. They just weren’t conducive choices to an interesting show around the categories. Which pretty much meant that all I was paying attention to was who won. And that Fosse/Verdon trailer they showed during the show (which looks dope).

In terms of the show, the opening monologue wasn’t great. The only joke I thought was good was about Vice invading the wrong category based on bad information, but they pretty much rolled over that and into the next joke immediately, either because they had a mandate to speed up the show or because none of the jokes were landing because everyone was drunk. That’s really the key with this show — either have a host that can grab the attention of the drunk people, or no host at all.

The gags they did didn’t work, the flu shots or whatever. The crowd was openly talking over them at some points, which tells you just how little they mattered as hosts. They tried to put a serious monologue at the end of their jokes, and people started laughing thinking it was gonna turn into a bit. Not great planning on their part. Otherwise, the Jeff Bridges and Carol Burnett tributes were nice. Bridges gave an awesome speech. Also, Dick Van Dyke. And Bill fucking Murray.

The rest of the show — I can’t say I’m openly shocked at how things turned out, but there are some interesting decisions to chew on, and we’ll see if they carry weight throughout the rest of the season, or if this is just the Globes being the Globes.

I’m gonna go through the awards in the order they handed them out, because that’s how I typed up my notes. And it shows the progression of my thinking in terms of how things turned out and were gonna turn out.

Best Actor in a TV Series – Musical or Comedy

Sacha Baron Cohen, Who Is America?
Jim Carrey, Kidding
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Bill Hader, Barry

Winner: Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method

I feel like this went first in case Sacha Baron Cohen won. That way he could get his thing out of the way first and everyone could move on.

I forget that the one thing they like more than anything is the veteran movie actor in the TV category. People like John Lithgow and such winning this in past years.

Nice to see Douglas win, but ultimately meaningless. I feel like they pick a new person to give it to each year. So whoever isn’t here next year and is new, that’s probably your winner.

Best Animated Feature

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Winner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

That felt like the winner when they started announcing nominees. They’re gonna try to spin this into an Oscar win. And you know what? Might happen.

Sony’s never won the Animated Feature Oscar and has only been nominated twice. So even if they do get this on (which they should), it’s a tall order for a win. Because sometimes people just vote Pixar anyway.

It’ll all come down to whether or not Incredibles and Ralph both make it on. This is gonna be an interesting, but boring, category at the Oscars. Because either it’ll be so watered down anything could win (and we get another Big Hero 6 situation in 2014… which reminds me, that was the year The Lego Movie was the shoo-in, won the Globe, and then wasn’t nominated for the Oscar. So keep that in mind, in case we have an exact repeat of that scenario), or they’ll put foreign stuff on there and the winner will be insanely obvious all the way through.

The funny thing is that in all of this, Isle of Dogs seems like an afterthought.

Best Actor in a TV Series – Drama

Jason Bateman, Ozark
Stephan James, Homecoming
Richard Madden, Bodyguard
Billy Porter, Pose
Matthew Rhys, The Americans

Winner: Richard Madden, Bodyguard

Pulled that one out of my ass. That’s one of those where it just felt like the right choice. Usually I get those wrong.

No idea who he is or what his show is. I just know that Bateman didn’t win previously, and that’s not a good way to get a win in a category like this. James didn’t feel like them. I had no idea what Pose is so that was unlikely to be their vote. The only real option was Rhys for The Americans, and I felt like they were gonna give it to Russell, if anyone.

All this is prelude to saying, I don’t care about any of this, but I’m glad I randomly guessed correctly.

Best TV Series – Drama

The Americans
Bodyguard
Homecoming
Killing Eve
Pose

Winner: The Americans

Ah, so there’s the token win.

You knew they’d give it something. My guess was Russell and no one else. Because I saw that happen to something else at some other show. Just the actress won and no one else. Maybe it was this show at SAG? Whatever. Doesn’t matter. The category was weak enough that they could give it the win and move on next year to new stuff.

This category might be five completely different shows next year.

Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Miniseries or TV Movie

Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Edgar Ramirez, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal
Henry Winkler, Barry

Winner: Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal

Okay then.

I was hoping for Winkler. After Douglas I figured they might double dip on Arkin. But sure. Whishaw.

Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora
Connie Britton, Dirty John
Laura Dern, The Tale
Regina King, Seven Seconds

Winner: Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora

Oh, that’s cool.

That miniseries sounded interesting to me. Thought for sure they’d vote Amy Adams, but maybe the double nomination steered them away?

Whatever, completely meaningless category.

Best Original Score

Black Panther
First Man
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place

Winner: First Man

Justin Hurwitz is 3/3, I heard them say as he went up there. Two for La La Land and now this.

He deserved it. The score of that movie was amazing.

Also, at least one of these nominees, in a proper category, shouldn’t be there. And I’m pretty sure (I haven’t listened to them all, so I’m not holding myself to this) that the best score of 2018, that should win the Oscar, is If Beale Street Could Talk.

But we all know the Globes never go the way the Oscars do in a category like this. Usually they pick the cool winner that doesn’t get nominated and the rest of the choices seem really weird.

Sure sounds like how this category might go.

But we also have a shortlist now, and all these five are on it. So by a technicality, this category is relevant.

But if you’re picking Score based solely on what the Globes did, that’s not a good way to get a lot of things right when guessing the Oscars.

Best Original Song

“All the Stars,” from Black Panther
“Revelation,” from Boy Erased
“Girl in the Movies,” from Dumplin’
“Requiem for a Private War,” from A Private War
“Shallow,” from A Star Is Born

Winner: “Shallow,” from A Star Is Born

Come on, buddy.

That was the biggest lock of the night. No one even knew what the other nominees were.

The only question left is what four songs will lose to this at the Oscars.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Winner: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Nice. Good for her.

I’m used to all these shows beginning with Supporting Actor, so it’s nice to see them push it to the middle of the show and swap the two around for a change.

King and Foy both missed SAG, but I think we all figure King will for sure get nominated in the end. Foy is still up in the air/unlikely, but Supporting Actress has been a more open category the past few years (remember 2016 with the two open spots and Mary J. Blige over Hong Chau? That’s in play this year too).

My guess is that as long as the category turns out to be King, Stone, Weisz, Adams and TBD, then King should take the whole thing down pretty easily due to the vote split. Adams would be an empty nomination, the TBD choice would have to make up so much ground (based on SAG… well, it’s not gonna be Emily Blunt unless they really want an empty spot on the list, and Margot Robbie would have zero chance at winning. Who’s left? Foy and maybe Nicole Kidman? Or else we’re gonna get one of those Laura Dern nominations where someone comes along with another nominee. Linda Cardellini out of nowhere? No clue).

This seems like the beginning of a steamroll for Regina King, provided she does make the final list. If not, chaos reigns.

It’ll be interesting to see if any of the other voting bodies deviate from the trajectory (aside from SAG, which has to). That’s the only way to keep this one interesting.

Best Actress in a TV Series – Drama

Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Julia Roberts, Homecoming
Keri Russell, The Americans

Winner: Sandra Oh, Killing Eve

Shocker.

Of course the host was gonna win. And once I saw The Americans got their token win, this was fait accompli.

But also, it’s TV, so I have no analysis for this. You don’t come here for TV analysis.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

Winner: Mahershala Ali, Green Book

And so it begins.

This looks like it’s gonna be your category, save Sam Elliott over Sam Rockwell.

Unless Elliott starts pulling out wins, Mahershala Ali is gonna turn into Christoph Waltz, with two wins in short succession. I don’t see any of these other people suddenly manufacturing wins. Chalamet is there almost by default. Driver would need a huge push to get anywhere, and Grant’s film doesn’t have the love or notoriety to get anywhere. He could win a BAFTA to keep things interesting, but something tells me that unless Sam Elliott can win SAG, this is Mahershala all the way.

Best Screenplay

The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
Vice

Winner: Green Book

Oh boy.

This one was fairly open and was gonna dictate how the rest of the night went. The minute I saw this, I knew that it had Picture in the bag. Which we kind of knew already.

The Favourite never felt like a serious contender here, and I thought they might slip in Beale Street after the King win. But once that was out, it became Green Book all the way and opened up a possible Viggo win.

This was like when you saw Get Out win Screenplay last year and knew it was Shape of Water winning in the end. Or like when we saw Argo win Editing and knew that was the end in 2012. This is that tide turner win.

Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Miniseries or TV Movie

Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
Penelope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Thandie Newton, Westworld
Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale

Winner: Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects

That seemed like the obvious one.

I thought they’d go with the double, her and Adams, but I guess they like to spread the wealth.

No real analysis of this, so we move on.

Best Actor – Musical/Comedy

Christian Bale, Vice
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun
John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie

Winner: Christian Bale, Vice

Yeah, that makes the most sense. He can take this down. He really can.

“Thank you to Satan for giving me the inspiration for this role,” was probably the best line of the night.

It was either him or Viggo. Him winning this meant they’re trying to guess the actual winners. And honestly, they could be 3/3 so far. We still have the Drama category to contend with, but right now, Bale is your frontrunner, provided he can take down SAG and/or another precursor over the next month.

Best Foreign Language Film

Capernaum
Girl
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters

Winner: Roma

What else was it gonna be?

Though I do wonder if this is another 2008 scenario where Waltz with Bashir was the prohibitive favorite and then Departures won in the end.

Which is my way of saying, is Shoplifters a sneaky underdog? Or does it just go Roma all the way?

But, we’ll also have more to talk about with Roma later, so let’s hold off on that for the moment.

Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Antonio Banderas, Genius: Picasso
Daniel Bruhl, The Alienist
Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose
Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal

Winner: Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story

He won all the other ones, I think. Makes sense.

Grant was out the minute Whishaw won, given how they’d spread it around in the TV categories. So yeah, this went as expected.

Best Director

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice

Winner: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Yeah, that makes sense. Shaping up pretty much as expected.

That, to me, meant Star Is Born was gonna take the rest. Obviously things didn’t work out that way, but that’s how it was looking. The logic was still the same. Let the other stuff win there, and Cuaron wins Director.

He’s also got an easy path to the Oscar. Because it’ll be him Cooper, Farrelly, probably Spike and then someone else. I think this sets up for the obvious split, unless Roma manages to take it in the end. We’ll see how the categories shapes out, but this all sets up for a Cuaron second win.

Best Actress in a TV Series – Musical or Comedy

Kristen Bell, The Good Place
Candice Bergen, Murphy Brown
Alison Brie, Glow
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Debra Messing, Will & Grace

Winner: Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Awesome.

Also the only real choice there. That’s two in a row for her, right? That’ll probably be the last of it. And then her winning this meant no Good Place win out of nowhere. Because they like to give the big one to the new show.

Best TV Series – Musical or Comedy

Barry
The Good Place
Kidding
The Kominsky Method
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Winner: The Kominsky Method

Hilarious. Never fails.

They pick a new show every year. Didn’t think it would be that, but it set up from the first Douglas win.

I like how the key to picking this category is, “What’s new?”

Best Miniseries or TV Movie

The Alienist
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
Escape at Dannemora
Sharp Objects
A Very English Scandal

Winner: The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story

Makes sense.

Seems like at least three of the other shows were more interesting than this, but this did sweep the Emmys along with Mrs. Maisel, so it makes sense.

Best Actress – Musical/Comedy

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Charlize Theron, Tully
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians

Winner: Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Yeah, that was the only choice if they wanted to factor into the Oscar race.

Also a pretty ballsy choice. Constance Wu and Emily Blunt must have been really tempting.

But now this makes our Oscar race more interesting. We gotta see what BAFTA and SAG do.

Also, Gaga would have wiped the floor with this category. But arguably a Drama win would have been much stronger for her in the end.

Best Picture – Musical/Comedy

Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
Mary Poppins Returns
Vice

Winner: Green Book

There we go.

That was a given once it won Screenplay. Sets up that as a solid Picture contender. Not sure if can end up winning it all, but right now, it looks like a serious contender.

Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, Supporting Actor. That’s five. Not sure what else it can land at the moment, but that’s still a solid start. Editing will be a big one for them. So that can be six. It’s up there.

Also interesting that The Favourite didn’t land fully for HFPA. Wonder if that means anything or if it’s just the Globes being the Globes.

Also, them nominating Crazy Rich Asians and then snubbing it pretty much tells you they’re expecting business as usual for the awards.

Best Actress – Drama

Glenn Close, The Wife
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Rosamund Pike, A Private War

Winner: Glenn Close, The Wife

Whoa. That’s… a statement.

Extremely Glenn and Incredibly Close.

That shakes things up.

Or does nothing, because we remember that Isabelle Huppert won this two years ago, and Emma Stone took Best Actress. So maybe this is good for Olivia Colman. We’ll see.

During her speech, it did make me realize that her winning for this role in this year would actually be a nice thing, optically. Of course, I don’t necessarily think it’s the best performance per se, but a career achievement in a year like this isn’t the worst thing. And she’s 36 years overdue for one of these anyway, going back to World According to Garp.

That said, I wonder if they regret putting Gaga in Drama.

But also, that does continue the trend of actresses playing this role not winning the Oscar. Why start now?

I never felt like she was an automatic winner, but her winning here would have put that in motion.

Now at least we have Colman and Close, with Gaga still in the running until she misses every other precursor.

SAG looms huge right now. And we don’t even have our BAFTA nominations yet. This is one to watch.

Best Actor – Drama

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Winner: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Ooh, shit.

They ignored Bradley Cooper.

Either Star Is Born peaked too early or they think Rami Malek has the goods to possibly win it all.

Or they think it’s Bale and this didn’t matter. That’s also a possibility.

He needs another win to be a serious contender, but this is a big win for them. In Drama, no less.

Him and Cooper were the only two real choices here, but man, that certainly makes things interesting for the moment. Especially when your final category will probably be: Cooper, Bale, Malek, Mortensen, TBD. And TBD is probably Dafoe or Washington (gotta see where BAFTA goes).

The precursors will shape this one up, but that’s a fun little surprise they threw at us.

Best Picture – Drama

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born

Winner: Bohemian Rhapsody

Oh wow.

The minute I saw this, I said one thing: “They wanted Roma to win.” If Roma were in this category, it would have won. Once Roma was out, they were free to do what they wanted.

This puts Bohemian Rhapsody solely in the Best Picture race. The last time a Globe winner for Drama wasn’t nominated for Best Picture was The Cardinal, 55 years ago. And, to put a finer point on it, it’s only happened two more times (Spartacus and East of Eden). So yeah. Leave room on your list for that.

I almost said, “You think they regret putting Star Is Born in Drama,” but then you realize… Bohemian Rhapsody did the same thing. It just worked out. Mostly it just means Star Is Born peaked too early and everyone assuming it would win Best Picture spoke too soon (as they always do). It did seem like it could happen a month ago, but that also looked like it was gonna fly in the face of all the other times they made that film. This makes more sense. Also, could be meaningless, because the minute PGA gives it to Star Is Born, it’s back on top.

Personally, this makes things more interesting. We’re all pretty sure Bohemian Rhapsody won’t win Best Picture, but BAFTA could try to tell us otherwise. Mostly, I’m just glad the race is intriguing.

Oh, but also, there’s the whole Roma factor to take into account. Because no one knows how or if the fact that it’s a Netflix movie means anything. There’s a lot we’re gonna have to sift through over the next couple weeks.

But also, two weeks to nominations and the guilds are already announcing. So we’ve got more important things to deal with before we start worrying about that.

I’ll be back later with guild stuff and a Release Calendar.

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