Oscars 2018: SAG Award Predictions
I’d call this a SAG preview, but let’s face it — we know what this article is about.
I considered not even putting one out there, but you know what? For me it’s not about the predictions. I don’t even care about guessing half these awards. For me it’s all about the result and what it means for the race. So really all I’m doing is talking about where the race is now and what outcomes seem most likely and how things will be affected based on who wins and who doesn’t.
And it’s a good way to bullshit another article that takes less than twenty minutes to write. Look, I don’t need extra content, but when it’s this easy, screw it, right?
So here’s your SAG Awards “Preview”.
Now that I look, I don’t think I did one of these the past two years. Probably because I realized it was meaningless. But this year I feel like there have been so few opportunities to talk about the state of the race because they compressed the timeline
Crazy Rich Asians
A Star Is Born
I honestly don’t care what wins this. They’ll probably give it to Black Panther, looking at it. They tend to vote for the most nominated film, acting-wise, so you’d think A Star Is Born would be the easy winner, but they didn’t nominate any of the prime Best Picture candidates (namely Green Book and Roma), so the winner doesn’t really matter. It looks like Roma’s on pace to take everything down, and it only won’t be here because it’s ineligible. So your winner doesn’t really matter and will probably be taking its only award home here (unless it’s Bohemian Rhapsody, in which case a win here will really make people have to think twice about its chances going forward).
The stat that people will point to here is that, going back to 1995 (that’s 23 categories before this one), the Best Picture winner has been nominated in the category 21/23 years. The two it missed were the first category and last year. The Shape of Water was not nominated in Ensemble, yet did get two acting awards. However, it still looks like Roma is the favorite, and clearly the people involved were not SAG eligible, so that takes them off the hook for not having it this year. But, Green Book won the PGA, so that also doesn’t preclude that from winning, since honestly if The Shape of Water didn’t matter, why should Green Book? Green Book has the same two acting nominations at SAG that Shape of Water did.
My guess is they go Black Panther here, unless they’re really rallied around a particular movie (BlacKkKlansman would surprise me, A Star Is Born would bore me, and Bohemian Rhapsody would make things so much more interesting).
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Anything other than a Bale win would shock me.
Not sure what else to add. If Bradley Cooper takes this down, that’s the chaos that makes this race intriguing. Rami Malek wins, then you have to take him seriously as a contender to Bale after the Globes. Mortensen wins, and we’re opened up a little more, and it makes Green Book’s position seem stronger. Washington wins and… well, TBD on that, depending on how all the other categories go.
No Willem Dafoe here, but he was the surprise fifth anyway. No one really thinks he’s got the votes even if he were here.
Honestly, I think this is Bale and he’ll sweep everything from here on out. Things only change if he loses, but I don’t think we’re expecting that to happen.
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4/5 your Oscar category, with the fifth having been ineligible and no real contender. This award is pretty big, because so far, Glenn Close, Olivia Colman and Lady Gaga have pretty much split all the awards. Close and Colman won the Globes, and then Close tied with Gaga for BFCA. So this is the big tiebreaker. If Glenn Close wins this, then she becomes your Oscar favorite. If Colman wins this, then she’s ahead, but not a lock. If Gaga wins this, she’s back in it. BAFTA is still the one I need to see. Because Colman looks like she’s gonna take that no matter how this turns out. So if she wins this too, that tells me a lot. If she loses BAFTA, that tells me a lot. This is a placeholder for now, and makes the winner the default choice, but there are a lot of different permutations that can come through.
In terms of the race, a Glenn Close win makes the most sense. This feels like she could “get her Oscar” this year. But — the film’s not that far out there. It’s not even that great. They’d just be voting for her. Is that enough? I don’t know. Right now, all she has are the Hollywood Foreign Press (not particularly meaningful) and film critics. Now she’s in the races that will show who saw her movie. So I wanna see where she’s at on this. Colman theoretically doesn’t need this to have a legitimate shot at the Oscar. If she wins this, it makes it way easier for her to win it. But she doesn’t necessarily need it. And Gaga is the one who still makes the most sense to me as a winner, even though intellectually I know it’s unlikely to happen. SAG is broad enough that she could win this and still lose the Oscar.
I guess it’s gotta be Glenn Close, right? It’s not like people really saw Still Alice when they voted for Julianne Moore, right?
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
No Sam Rockwell, but no one thinks he’s a contender.
This is the first major race where Mahershala Ali goes up against Sam Elliott. I think Elliott could have a shot at the Oscar. But he needs this. This is the only one he’s in with Ali. If he loses this, then it’s over. Ali sweeps. BAFTA doesn’t have to go any wya. Richard E. Grant could win the BAFTA and it won’t matter (and he might).
I think Ali wins this, but the only thing that could move a needle on the overall race is if Sam Elliott takes it down. I can’t really see anything else coming through. A Grant win would surprise me and a Driver win would shock me. I think this is Ali en route to a second win in two years.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Well, there’s no Regina King, so they’re gonna have to break the tie. This and BAFTA both don’t have Regina King. Which means that they’re gonna have to decide between Emma Stone or Rachel Weisz.
Because Emily Blunt is a filler, and if she wins, it’s a blank. Margot Robbie has SAG and BAFTA, but she’s not nominated, so a win means nothing. And does anyone think Amy Adams has a shot at the Oscar even if she wins this?
So they’re gonna have to choose between Stone and Blunt. But, as I said, so does BAFTA. So you’re in an interesting scenario where Weisz could win one and Stone could win the other. Then you’re really up shit’s creek. Though I guess it’s better than the same person winning both. Because then, say, Rachel Weisz wins SAG and BAFTA and then you have Regina King with the Globe and BFCA… that’s an interesting scenario. So we’ll see.
If I had to pick between the two… maybe Emma Stone? Because SAG is big and they like her, and then BAFTA could go Weisz? I don’t know. I assume it’ll be one of the two. If it’s anyone else I’m not really that interested. Maybe Amy Adams makes me curious. But only someone winning both remaining precursors will really capture my attention.
Best Stunt Ensemble
Ant-Man and the Wasp
Avengers: Infinity War
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Mission: Impossible — Fallout
I hope it’s Fallout. Those are real stunts. Either way, I’m glad this category exists.
Also funny that they’re gonna hand this out before the ceremony because they don’t care enough to put it on the actual show and properly honor these people.
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And now the TV stuff! Which you all know I love.
Best Stunt Ensemble
The Walking Dead
Sure. I support whoever wins.
Best Ensemble in a Drama Series
Better Call Saul
The Handmaid’s Tale
This Is Us
Does The Americans win on its way out? Seems like it does.
Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series
The Kominsky Method
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Does anything but Mrs. Maisel have a shot at this?
Best Actor in a Drama Series
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Joseph Fiennes, The Handmaid’s Tale
John Krasinski, Jack Ryan
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Brown, Bateman and Odenkirk were nominated last year. Brown won. Maybe him again? Doubt Krasinski wins out of nowhere, but possibly. Let’s say Brown doubles up. Otherwise I have no idea.
Best Actress in a Drama Series
Julia Garner, Ozark
Laura Linney, Ozark
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Robin Wright, House of Cards
It’s Sandra Oh and then the field, right? Or does Moss win again? I feel like those are the only two option for this category.
Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Bill Hader, Barry
Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Henry Winkler, Barry
I guess Douglas? No idea. Rooting for Winkler, just because he’s awesome.
Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Alison Brie, GLOW
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Jane Fonda, Grace and Frankie
Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie
Can anyone but Brosnahan win this?
Best Actor in a Miniseries or a TV Movie
Antonio Banderas, Genius: Picasso
Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal
Anthony Hopkins, King Lear
Bill Pullman, The Sinner
Gotta be Criss, right? Maybe Grant, but Criss seems like your frontrunner. Doubt they care about Hopkins enough to go him. Pullman would surprise me. Banderas seems like a filler nominee. I think it’s Criss, with Grant as a possible, but very unlikely, upset choice.
Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie
Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora
Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
Penelope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
Emma Stone, Maniac
Arquette won the Globe, but I imagine Amy Adams wins this. But maybe not. Let’s see.
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Yeah, I don’t think this will be a terribly intriguing SAG Awards. Best Actress is the only thing with the power to change a race. Best Actor a distant, but possible second. Supporting Actor seems locked no matter what happens, and Supporting Actress only can change the race if whoever wins also wins BAFTA. So yeah, nothing really outstanding here. Should just be another show that will put the proper pieces in place. Maybe I’m cynical because of the limited number of films in the field, but this seems like a year that’s shaping up for some obvious winners all around. (He said, with a month to go, knowing that would never really happen.)