Oscars 2018: SAG Awards
So the SAG Awards were last night. I almost didn’t watch. That’s how little I really expected the results to mean anything. At this point they’re almost like every other guild. I almost just looked at the results after the fact.
BUT… had I done that, I would have missed the really important thing that happened during the show, which is — Scott Bakula showed up. And boy, am I glad I got to see Scott Bakula.
Here are your SAG winners:
Crazy Rich Asians
A Star Is Born
Winner: Black Panther
Was anyone expecting anything else? The only thing that could have moved the needle was a Bohemian Rhapsody win. But short of that, nothing else but Black Panther was winning this. You have to realize… SAG’s reached a point where it’s just populist now. They might still be helpful in the acting awards like they were, but they’re basically the IMDB Top 250 at this point. That’s where we are now, it looks like. The question wasn’t whether or not Black Panther was going to win this, the question was whether or not it was going to mean anything. And the answer is: probably not. But hey, they got this, and that’s nice.
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Winner: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Well now this just got interesting.
Rami Malek has SAG and the Globe. Bale has the Globe and BFCA. BAFTA will be the tiebreaker. And if Bale wins BAFTA, it certainly looks like a 2016 scenario, with Casey Affleck vs. Denzel. I’m not sure how much I trust SAG as an automatic precursor anymore. I think that’s where I’m at. We’ll see, but I’m not sure this means it’s over. Now, if he wins BAFTA, then close up shop. But I think Bale will win, setting up an interesting Oscar night.
I have to realize, I’m happy with either winning, because I loved both the performances. But I think, just like in 2016, Bale will win out, because jesus christ, he was the dude. But right now, we just got a category made more interesting, which is good, because literally every other acting category became less interesting after this show.
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Winner: Glenn Close, The Wife
So yeah, Glenn Close is gonna win her Oscar. She doesn’t even need BAFTA at this point. But she might get it. Colman remains the favorite for BAFTA, I’d think. And Gaga is all but out of the race right now, save a BAFTA win. Pretty much, Glenn Close is the probable winner, and whoever wins BAFTA is the second choice, since they’ll have either a Globes win or BFCA win (depending on who it is). Otherwise, you gotta figure this is all Glenn from here on out. This is the one result that closed the race up. Anything else kept it wide open.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Winner: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Well this one’s over. But we figured that. Of all the categories, this was the one that seemed the most locked going in. Driver and Grant have lost every precursor to Ali so far and Elliott isn’t up for BAFTA. So even if Ali loses the BAFTA it won’t matter. All it’ll do is make whoever does win (probably Grant, because who else would they give it to, if not Ali?) the second choice based on the numbers. I think Ali just takes it all down at this point.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Vice
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Winner: Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Well, this was the one result that made the category less interesting. And somehow the one I knew was coming. As soon as this category showed up, I just felt it in my stomach that Blunt was gonna win this. And what that means is — Regina King is gonna win the Oscar. They couldn’t split the vote between Stone and Weisz. So that means BAFTA will either have to do that or they’re also gonna pull a fast one and give it to Claire Foy. Basically what this means is, the only way you saw one person besides Regina King having the amount of support to beat her was if they won SAG and BAFTA. SAG didn’t show it. If Weisz or Stone wins BAFTA, who thinks they have a shot at the Oscar without having taken home SAG?
Seems like it’s Regina King first, and whoever wins BAFTA second (assuming they’re even up for the Oscar).
So yeah. I thought we’d lock up Actor and Supporting Actor, possibly make Supporting Actress more interesting and Actress was the wild card. Turns out we locked up Supporting Actor, Actress, made Supporting Actress less interesting and now Best Actor is the wild card. Welcome to 2018.
Best Stunt Ensemble
Ant-Man and the Wasp
Avengers: Infinity War
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Mission: Impossible — Fallout
Winner: Black Panther
Good for them.
– – – – – – – – – –
And now the TV awards.
Best Stunt Ensemble
The Walking Dead
Best Ensemble in a Drama Series
Better Call Saul
The Handmaid’s Tale
This Is Us
Winner: This Is Us
I thought they’d go Americans on its way out. Nah, they went broadcast. I think that’s two in a row for them.
Funny how they can love this show but… Life Itself… everyone hated it as a movie. Go figure.
Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series
The Kominsky Method
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Winner: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Was there any doubt about that?
Best Actor in a Drama Series
Jason Bateman, Ozark
Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Joseph Fiennes, The Handmaid’s Tale
John Krasinski, Jack Ryan
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Winner: Jason Bateman, Ozark
Oh hey, he won. Made sense. This is kind of a nothing category, but Jason Bateman won. So yeah.
Best Actress in a Drama Series
Julia Garner, Ozark
Laura Linney, Ozark
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Robin Wright, House of Cards
Winner: Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Is anyone surprised? Of course she was winning this.
Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Bill Hader, Barry
Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Henry Winkler, Barry
Winner: Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
I guess the other four all split the votes. That’s cool. Shalhoub is awesome.
Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Alison Brie, GLOW
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Jane Fonda, Grace and Frankie
Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie
Winner: Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
I mean, fucking really.
Best Actor in a Miniseries or a TV Movie
Antonio Banderas, Genius: Picasso
Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal
Anthony Hopkins, King Lear
Bill Pullman, The Sinner
Winner: Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
Yeah, that tracks.
Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie
Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora
Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
Penelope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace
Emma Stone, Maniac
Winner: Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora
Okay then. She won them both. That’s cool.
– – – – – – – – – – –
So yeah. Not a whole lot of surprises here. The only thing that rates as interesting is the Rami Malek win. We’ll see how BAFTA goes. This Best Actor category might be Malek’s to lose. I guess we’ll see. Otherwise, pretty ho hum.
I start the category breakdowns tomorrow. So we’re full on the downhill for this season.