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Oscars 2018 Category Breakdown: Best Supporting Actress

So what we do here each year as a warm up for the Oscars is, I break down each of the 24 categories. The idea is to both familiarize everyone with the category and its history. I look at what the major trends are throughout the past bunch of years, how the precursors tend to go, whether they matter or not, that sort of stuff. I look at how the category came to be this year, and just anything else that seems totally pertinent about it. Then I rank each of the nominees and tell you what their likelihood (at this particular moment in time) of winning is.

This is all prelude to my giant Oscar ballot that I’m gonna give you. But I figure, if you have these as the warmup, it’s not as intimidating. You’ll have seen a lot of the pertinent trends here and we’ll all be able to reference these as a sort of cheat sheet. Plus it shows you where my head is at for how I think each of the categories are gonna go, and you can see me working my way up to all the bad decisions I usually make while guessing. Pretty much, with this, you’ll have a pretty good idea of how the category is gonna turn out.

Today is Best Supporting Actress. Which we thought could be interesting, but seems pretty straightforward yet again.

Year Best Supporting Actress Winners Other Nominees
1936 Gale Sondergaard, Anthony Adverse Beulah Bondi, The Gorgeous Hussy

Alice Brady, My Man Godfrey

Bonita Granville, These Three

Maria Ouspenskaya, Dodsworth

1937 Alice Brady, In Old Chicago Andrea Leeds, Stage Door

Anne Shirley, Stella Dallas

Claire Trevor, Dead End

Dame May Whitty, Night Must Fall

1938 Fay Bainter, Jezebel Beulah Bondi, Of Human Hearts

Billie Burke, Merrily We Live

Spring Byington, You Can’t Take It With You

Miliza Korjus, The Great Waltz

1939 Hattie McDaniel, Gone With the Wind Olivia de Havilland, Gone With the Wind

Geraldine Fitzgerald, Wuthering Heights

Edna May Oliver, Drums Along the Mohawk

Maria Ouspenskaya, Love Affair

1940 Jane Darwell, The Grapes of Wrath Judith Anderson, Rebecca

Ruth Hussey, The Philadelphia Story

Barbara O’Neil, All This, and Heaven Too

Marjorie Rambeau, Primrose Path

1941 Mary Astor, The Great Lie Sarah Allgood, How Green Was My Valley

Patricia Collinge, The Little Foxes

Teresa Wright, The Little Foxes

Margaret Wycherly, Sergeant York

1942 Teresa Wright, Mrs. Miniver Gladys Cooper, Now, Voyager

Susan Peters, Random Harvest

Agnes Moorehead, The Magnificent Ambersons

Dame May Whitty, Mrs. Miniver

1943 Katrina Paxinou, For Whom the Bell Tolls Gladys Cooper, The Song of Bernadette

Paulette Goddard, So Proudly We Hail!

Anne Revere, The Song of Bernadette

Lucille Watson, Watch on the Rhine

1944 Ethel Barrymore, None But the Lonely Heart Jennifer Jones, Since You Went Away

Angela Lansbury, Gaslight

Aline MacMahon, Dragon Seed

Agnes Moorehead, Mrs. Parkington

1945 Anne Revere, National Velvet Eve Arden, Mildred Pierce

Ann Blyth, Mildred Pierce

Angela Lansbury, The Picture of Dorian Grey

Joan Lorring, The Corn is Green

1946 Anne Baxter, The Razor’s Edge Ethel Barrymore, The Spiral Staircase

Lillian Gish, Duel in the Sun

Flora Robson, Saratoga Trunk

Gale Sondergaard, Anna and the King of Siam

1947 Celeste Holm, Gentleman’s Agreement Ethel Barrymore, The Paradine Case

Gloria Grahame, Crossfire

Marjoria Main, The Egg and I

Anne Revere, Gentleman’s Agreement

1948 Claire Trevor, Key Largo Barbara Bel Geddes, I Remember Mama

Ellen Corby, I Remember Mama

Agnes Moorehead, Johnny Belinda

Jean Simmons, Hamlet

1949 Mercedes McCambridge, All the King’s Men Ethel Barrymore, Pinky

Celeste Holm, Come to the Stable

Elsa Lanchester, Come to the Stable

Ethel Waters, Pinky

1950 Josephine Hull, Harvey Hope Emerson, Caged

Celeste Holm, All About Eve

Susan Olson, Sunset Boulevard

Thelma Ritter, All About Eve

1951 Kim Hunter, A Streetcar Named Desire Joan Blondell, The Blue Veil

Mildred Dunnock, Death of a Salesman

Lee Grant, Detective Story

Thelma Ritter, The Mating Season

1952 Gloria Grahame, The Bad and the Beautiful Jean Hagan, Singin’ in the Rain

Collette Marchand, Moulin Rouge

Terry Moore, Come Back, Little Sheba

Thelma Ritter, With a Song in My Heart

1953 Donna Reed, From Here to Eternity Grace Kelly, Mogambo

Geraldine Page, Hondo

Marjorie Rambeau, Torch Song

Thelma Ritter, Pickup on South Street

1954 Eva Marie Saint, On the Waterfront Nina Foch, Executive Suite

Katy Jurado, Executive Suite

Jan Sterling, The High and the Mighty

Claire Trevor, The High and the Mighty

1955 Jo Van Fleet, East of Eden Betsy Blair, Marty

Peggy Lee, Pete Kelly’s Blues

Marisa Pavan, The Rose Tattoo

Natalie Wood, Rebel Without a Cause

1956 Dorothy Malone, Written on the Wind Midred Dunnock, Baby Doll

Eileen Heckart, The Bad Seed

Mercedes McCambridge, Giant

Patty McCormack, The Bad Seed

1957 Miyoshi Umeki, Sayonara Carolyn Jones, The Bachelor Party

Elsa Lanchester, Witness for the Prosecution

Hope Lange, Peyton Place

Diane Varsi, Peyton Place

1958 Wendy Hiller, Separate Tables Peggy Cass, Autie Mame

Martha Hyer, Some Came Running

Maureen Stapleton, Lonelyhearts

Cara Williams, The Defiant Ones

1959 Shelley Winters, The Diary of Anne Frank Hermione Baddeley, Room at the Top

Susan Kohner, Imitation of Life

Juanita Moore, Imitation of Life

Thelma Ritter, Pillow Talk

1960 Shirley Jones, Elmer Gantry Glynis Johns, The Sundowners

Shirley Knight, The Dark at the Top of the Stairs

Janet Leigh, Psycho

Mary Ure, Sons and Lovers

1961 Rita Moreno, West Side Story Fay Bainter, The Children’s Hour

Judy Garland, Judgment at Nuremberg

Lotte Lenya, The Roman Spring of Mrs. Stone

Una Merkel, Summer and Smoke

1962 Patty Duke, The Miracle Worker Mary Badham, To Kill a Mockingbird

Shirley Knight, Sweet Bird of Youth

Angela Lansbury, The Manchurian Candidate

Thelma Ritter, Birdman of Alcatraz

1963 Margaret Rutherford, The V.I.P.s Diane Cilento, Tom Jones

Edith Evans, Tom Jones

Joyce Redman, Tom Jones

Lilia Skala, Lilies of the Field

1964 Lila Kedrova, Zorba the Greek Gladys Cooper, My Fair Lady

Edith Evans, The Chalk Garden

Grayson Hall, The Night of the Iguana

Agnes Moorehead, Hush… Hush, Sweet Charlotte

1965 Shelley Winters, A Patch of Blue Ruth Gordon, Inside Daisy Clover

Joyce Redman, Othello

Maggie Smith, Othello

Peggy Wood, The Sound of Music

1966 Sandy Dennis, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? Wendy Hiller, A Man for All Seasons

Jocelyne LaGarde, Hawaii

Vivien Merchant, Alfie

Geraldine Page, You’re a Big Boy Now

1967 Estelle Parsons, Bonnie and Clyde Carol Channing, Thoroughly Modern Millie

Mildred Natwick, Barefoot in the Park

Beah Richards, Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner

Katharine Ross, The Graduate

1968 Ruth Gordon, Rosemary’s Babby Lynn Carlin, Faces

Sondra Locke, The Heart Is a Lonely Hunter

Kay Medford, Funny Girl

Estelle Parsons, Rachel, Rachel

1969 Goldie Hawn, Cactus Flower Cahterine Burns, Last Summer

Dyan Cannon, Bob & Carol & Ted & Alice

Sylvia Miles, Midnight Cowboy

Susanna York, They Shoot Horses, Don’t They?

1970 Helen Hayes, Airport Karen Black, Five Easy Pieces

Lee Grant, The Landlord

Sally Kellerman, MASH

Maureen Stapleton, Airport

1971 Cloris Leachman, The Last Picture Show Ann-Margret, Carnal Knowledge

Ellen Burstyn, The Last Picture Show

Barbara Harris, Who Is Harry Kellerman and Why Is He Saying Those Terrible Things About Me?

Margaret Leighton, The Go-Between

1972 Eileen Heckart, Butterflies are Free Jeannie Berlin, The Heartbreak Kid

Geraldine Page, Pete ‘n’ Tillie

Susan Tyrrell, Fat City

Shelley Winters, The Poseidon Adventure

1973 Tatum O’Neal, Paper Moon Linda Blair, The Exorcist

Candy Clark, American Graffiti

Madeline Kahn, Paper Moon

Sylvia Sidney, Summer Wishes, Winter Dreams

1974 Ingrid Begman, Murder on the Orient Express Valentina Cortese, Day for Night

Madeline Kahn, Blazing Saddles

Diane Ladd, Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore

Talia Shire, The Godfather Part II

1975 Lee Grant, Shampoo Ronee Blakley, Nashville

Sylvia Miles, Farewell, My Lovely

Lily Tomlin, Nashville

Brenda Vaccaro, Jacqueline Susann’s Once is Not Enough

1976 Beatrice Straight, Network Jane Alexander, All the President’s Men

Jodie Foster, Taxi Driver

Lee Grant, Voyage of the Damned

Piper Laurie, Carrie

1977 Vanessa Redgrave, Julia Leslie Browne, The Turning Point

Quinn Cummings, The Goodbye Girl

Melinda Dillon, Close Encounters of the Third Kind

Tuesday Weld, Looking for Mr. Goodbar

1978 Maggie Smith, California Suite Dyan Cannon, Heaven Can Wait

Penelope Milford, Coming Home

Maureen Stapleton, Interiors

Meryl Streep, The Deer Hunter

1979 Meryl Streep, Kramer vs. Kramer Jane Alexander, Kramer vs. Kramer

Barbara Barrie, Breaking Away

Candice Bergen, Starting Over

Mariel Heminway, Manhattan

1980 Mary Steenburgen, Melvin and Howard Eileen Brennan, Private Benjamin

Eva Le Gallienne, Resurrection

Cathy Moriarty, Raging Bull

Diana Scarwid, Inside Moves

1981 Maureen Stapleton, Reds Melinda Dillon, Absence of Malice

Jane Fonda, On Golden Pond

Joan Hackett, The Last Laugh

Elizabeth McGovern, Ragtime

1982 Jessica Lange, Tootsie Glenn Close, The World According to Garp

Teri Garr, Tootsie

Kim Stanley, Frances

Lesley Ann Warren, Victor Victoria

1983 Linda Hunt, The Year of Living Dangerously Cher, Silkwood

Glenn Close, The Big Chill

Amy Irving, Yentl

Alfre Woodard, Cross Creek

1984 Peggy Ashcroft, A Passage to India Glenn Close, The Natural

Lindsay Crouse, Places in the Heart

Christine Lahti, Swing Shift

Geraldine Page, The Pope of Greenwich Village

1985 Anjelica Huston, Prizzi’s Honor Margaret Avery, The Color Purple

Amy Madigan, Twice in a Lifetime

Meg Tilly, Agnes of God

Oprah Winfrey, The Color Purple

1986 Dianne Wiest, Hannah and Her Sisters Tess Harper, Crimes of the Heart

Piper Laurie, Children of a Lesser God

Mary Elizabeth Mastrantonio, The Color of Money

Maggie Smith, A Room with a Vier

1987 Olympia Dukakis, Moonstruck Norma Aleandro, Gaby: A True Story

Anne Archer, Fatal Attraction

Anne Ramsey, Throw Momma from the Train

Ann Sothern, The Whales of August

1988 Geena Davis, The Accidental Tourist Joan Cusack, Working Girl

Frances McDormand, Mississippi Burning

Michelle Pfeiffer, Dangerous Liaisons

Sigourney Weaver, Working Girl

1989 Brenda Fricker, My Left Foot Anjelica Huston, Enemies, a Love Story

Lena Olin, Enemies, a Love Story

Julia Roberts, Steel Magnolias

Dianne Wiest, Parenthood

1990 Whoopi Goldberg, Ghost Annette Bening, The Grifters

Lorraine Bracco, Goodfellas

Diane Ladd, Wild at Heart

Mary McDonnell, Dances with Wolves

1991 Mercedes Ruehl, The Fisher King Diane Ladd, Rambling Rose

Juliette Lewis, Cape Fear

Kate Nelligan, The Prince of Tides

Jessica Tandy, Fried Green Tomatoes

1992 Marisa Tomei, My Cousin Vinny Judy Davis, Husbands and Wives

Joan Plowright, Enchanted April

Vanessa Redgrave, Howards End

Miranda Richardson, Damage

1993 Anna Paquin, The Piano Holly Hunter, The Firm

Rosie Perez, Fearless

Winona Ryder, The Age of Innocence

Emma Thompson, In the Name of the Father

1994 Dianne Wiest, Bullets over Broadway Rosemary Harris, Tom & Viv

Helen Mirren, The Madness of King George

Uma Thurman, Pulp Fiction

Jennifer Tilly, Bullets over Broadway

1995 Mira Sorvino, Mighty Aphrodite Joan Allen, Nixon

Kathleen Quinlan, Apollo 13

Mare Winningham, Georgia

Kate Winslet, Sense an Sensibility

1996 Juliette Binoche, The English Patient Joan Allen, The Crucible

Lauren Bacall, The Mirror Has Two Faces

Barbara Hershey, Portrait of a Lady

Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Secrets & Lies

1997 Kim Basinger, L.A. Confidential Joan Cusack, In & Out

Minnie Driver, Good Will Hunting

Julianne Moore, Boogie Nights

Gloria Stuart, Titanic

1998 Judi Dench, Shakespeare in Love Kathy Bates, Primary Colors

Brenda Blethyn, Little Voice

Rachel Griffiths, Hilary and Jackie

Lynn Redgrave, Gods and Monsterds

1999 Angelina Jolie, Girl, Interrupted Toni Collette, The Sixth Sense

Catherine Keener, Being John Malkovich

Samantha Morton, Sweet and Lowdown

Chloe Sevigny, Boys Don’t Cry

2000 Marcia Gay Harden, Pollock Judi Dench, Chocolat

Kate Hudson, Almost Famous

Frances McDormand, Almost Famous

Julie Walters, Billy Elliot

2001 Jennifer Connelly, A Beautiful Mind Helen Mirren, Gosford Park

Maggie Smith, Gosford Park

Marisa Tomei, In the Bedroom

Kate Winslet, Iris

2002 Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago Kathy Bates, About Schmidt

Queen Latifah, Chicago

Julianne Moore, The Hours

Meryl Streep, Adaptation

2003 Renée Zellweger, Cold Mountain Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog

Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April

Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River

Holly Huntet, Thirteen

2004 Cate Blanchett, The Aviator Laura Linney, Kinsey

Virginia Madsen, Sideways

Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda

Natalie Portman, Closer

2005 Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener Amy Adams, Junebug

Catherine Keener, Capote

Frances McDormand, North Country

Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain

2006 Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls Adriana Barraza, Babel

Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal

Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine

Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

2007 Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There

Ruby Dee, American Gangster

Saoirse Ronan, Atonement

Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone

2008 Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona Amy Adams, Doubt

Viola Davis, Doubt

Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

2009 Mo’Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire Penelope Cruz, Nine

Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air

Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart

Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air

2010 Melissa Leo, The Fighter Amy Adams, The Fighter

Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech

Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Jackie Weaver, Animal Kingdom

2011 Octavia Spencer, The Help Berenice Bejo, The Artist

Jessica Chastain, The Help

Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids

Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs

2012 Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables Amy Adams, The Master

Sally Field, Lincoln

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

2013 Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

June Squibb, Nebraska

2014 Patricia Arquette, Boyhood Laura Dern, Wild

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Emma Stone, Birdman

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

2015 Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

 

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

2016 Viola Davis, Fences Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Nicole Kidman, Lion

Octavia Spancer, Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

2017 Allison Janney, I, Tonya Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

It’s an acting category, so that means SAG first, questions later.

They’re 17/24 all, time, so just over 70%. Two of the seven misses, however, are category differences. Jennifer Connelly won SAG lead and the Oscar for Supporting, and then Kate Winslet won SAG Supporting in 2008 and then won Best Actress at the Oscars.

The other five misses are:

  • 1995, Kate Winslet wins SAG and Mira Sorvino wins the Oscar
  • 1996, Lauren Bacall wins SAG and Juliette Binoche wins the Oscar
  • 1998, Kathy Bates wins SAG and Judi Dench wins the Oscar
  • 2000, Judi Dench wins SAG and Marcia Gay Harden wins the Oscar
  • 2007, Ruby Dee wins SAG and Tilda Swinton wins the Oscar.

They haven’t been wrong in a decade, if you count the Kate Winslet swap as being right. Most of their misses came early on in the SAG years, and pretty much since then they are solid. This year, however… things might be different. But, let’s look at how the other precursors did in those years:

BAFTA had Juliette Binoche in 1996, they had Judi Dench in 1998, they had Jennifer Connelly in 2001, they had Tilda Swinton in 2007, and they had Penelope Cruz in 2008. So they get the two category swaps right and the only two times they straight up missed were 1995, where they also had Kate Winslet over Sorvino, and 2000, where they had Julie Walters (but that’s the year everyone got it wrong and Harden won with no precursors). So usually, SAG and BAFTA, you’re set. (But again, this year…)

Oh, and BFCA, because we can: They had Mira Sorvino. So there’s that. Only one category unaccounted for. But outside of Jennifer Connelly in 2001 and the category swapped Kate Winslet, they also got every other one wrong. But that does mean your precursors are gonna help you.

The Globes meanwhile: The had Sorvino in ’95, missed the ’96 because they also had Bacall, missed Dench in ’98 (had Lynn Redgrave instead), missed 2000 along with everyone else (had Kate Hudson), had Jennifer Connelly in 2001, missed 2007 (had Cate Blanchett) and had Winslet in the category swap in 2008.

So yeah. Generally your winner will win some of the precursors. But this year, they’re not so helpful, are they?

Before we get into the category, let’s do my statistics thing. (Don’t worry, we’re almost done. It’s just Actor and Picture left.) In the Best Actress category, here’s how the positions have fared:

#1 – 13 times

#2 – 16 times

#3 – 19 times

#4 – 15 times

#5 – 17 times

This is the only category where the first position isn’t either first or tied for first. This first position is actually the worst to be.

  • The last #1 to win was Viola Davis, Fences
  • The last #2 to win was Allison Janney, I, Tonya
  • The last #3 to win was Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
  • The last #4 to win was Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
  • The last #5 to win was Octavia Spencer, The Help

So it’s all recent. They’re all pretty bunched together. And according to this category, the order of likelihood to win is: 1) King, 2) Weisz, 3) de Tavira, 4) Stone, 5) Adams. Honestly, not so far off from the truth, is it.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice

Maria de Tavira, Roma

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

This category was mostly decided all the way through, as were most of the acting categories. Adams, Stone and Weisz hit everything. King missed both SAG and BAFTA, but no one ever thought she would be left off. That last spot, however, was very open. Emily Blunt got a SAG nomination, Margot Robbie got SAG and BAFTA, Claire Foy got BAFTA… no one knew where it was gonna go. And it turns out, it’s because de Tavira isn’t SAG. So she couldn’t have been nominated. And they went all in on Roma. So here we are.

The interesting thing about this one was that it seemed very likely from the start that Regina King was the de facto winner here due to a vote split from Stone and Weisz. Adams never seemed like a winner and we never knew who the fifth person would be, so that didn’t seem like a possibility. But then King missed both SAG and BAFTA, which was interesting. That’s the only thing making this category notable right now, the fact that the person we all think will win missed the two biggest precursors. But then all the precursors pretty much are going off the board because of that. So it seems like it normally would most other years. It’s weird.

But yeah, King has BFCA and the Globe so far. SAG went to Emily Blunt, who wasn’t even nominated here. And there’s only BAFTA left, which will either decide between Stone or Weisz, or go off the board to Claire Foy or Margot Robbie. I guess Amy Adams theoretically could win BAFTA, but I don’t think anyone really sees that happening.

In the end… we have an exact mirror of 2000, don’t we? Maria de Tavira is Marcia Gay Harden in this scenario, isn’t she? Getting on with no precursors, and then the precursors are all over the place, with double nominees from the same film like that other time.

2000 had Kate Hudson and Frances McDormand from Almost Famous, Judi Dench in Chocolat, Julie Walters in Billy Elliott, and Harden. And in that year, Hudson won the Globes over Dench, McDormand and Walters; Frances McDormand won BFCA; Julie Walters won BAFTA over Dench and McDormand; and Dench won SAG over Hudson, McDormand and Walters. Everyone was split on people and then the fifth person got in and won the category.

Here, it’s slightly different, since King has the two lesser precursors and SAG went off the board. They could have easily rallied around one of the nominees here. So BAFTA is gonna tell the tale. If they also go off the board, then we probably know how this voting will turn out. If not, maybe we’ll see who can win it.

Rankings:

5. Amy Adams, Vice — She’s in every category and hasn’t won yet. Why does it seem like she’s always the last person in line for a vote in her films? It’s weird. She always gets nominated but never has a chance at a win. The Master, American Hustle, Doubt, The Fighter, Junebug. None of them. Also twice she was the second of a double nomination. Melissa Leo won over her in 2010, and Viola Davis had the showier role in Doubt, not that either had a chance. Junebug was her first and was the “welcome to the club” nomination. American Hustle, she had no shot. And The Master, she was along for the ride with Hoffman. Feels like she’s along for the ride with Bale here. Can’t see this amounting to anything.

4. Maria de Tavira, Roma — I don’t know if she’s not a stronger nominee. But I want to see what BAFTA does before I start talking myself into that. I know the next two have the vote split going on, but I don’t know if her not being on any of the precursor lists doesn’t help her. Then again, I think the fact that Regina King wasn’t on the two big precursor lists is clouding the fact that she probably would have swept all or most of them had she been on them. So I don’t know if de Tavira is a real contender in actuality. So I’ll leave her fourth for now, since you’d think if anyone really loved the performance enough for i to win that they’d have had it one another precursor.

3. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite — How do you figure out a vote split? It’s not like The Fighter where it was clearly Melissa Leo. Or The Help, where it was clearly Octavia Spencer. These two are 50/50 in every regard. How do you even pick who was better if not for personal preference? So the only way I split this vote save a BAFTA win for one of them is that Emma Stone has an Oscar more recently and might be more liked by more people. That’s it. That’s all I got.

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite — So yeah, the two of them are second and third until I talk myself into de Tavira being a second choice in this one due to overall category freshness on her part. But again, Weisz hasn’t been nominated since she last won and Stone has three nominations in five years and won two years ago. So I’m thinking more people would vote for her between the two. This is one of those situations where the vote split works against them because there is no pecking order.

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk — She’s the only one with precursors and will pretty much remain the only one with precursors. If BAFTA goes off the board the way SAG did, then it’ll literally be her with BFCA and the Globe and no one else with anything. So, for the moment, she’s the first choice on precursors and the fact that she makes the most sense as a winner. The role is such that she will get that ancillary support she needs in a category like this to take it down. And people will conveniently forget that she doesn’t really have the screen time you think she does and the role is pretty slight, all things considered. (Maybe that’s why she missed SAG and BAFTA. Dunno.) Still, the weird thing about the Oscars is that a lot of times the win isn’t necessarily about strength of performance so much as it is likability and logistics. This seems like a case of logistics. No one seems excited about Adams, the other two will siphon votes from one another and de Tavira is a foreign actress which makes her automatically less likely to get votes. King seems like she’ll take this just by default.

– – – – – – – – – –

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