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Oscars 2018 Category Breakdown: Best Actress

So what we do here each year as a warm up for the Oscars is, I break down each of the 24 categories. The idea is to both familiarize everyone with the category and its history. I look at what the major trends are throughout the past bunch of years, how the precursors tend to go, whether they matter or not, that sort of stuff. I look at how the category came to be this year, and just anything else that seems totally pertinent about it. Then I rank each of the nominees and tell you what their likelihood (at this particular moment in time) of winning is.

This is all prelude to my giant Oscar ballot that I’m gonna give you. But I figure, if you have these as the warmup, it’s not as intimidating. You’ll have seen a lot of the pertinent trends here and we’ll all be able to reference these as a sort of cheat sheet. Plus it shows you where my head is at for how I think each of the categories are gonna go, and you can see me working my way up to all the bad decisions I usually make while guessing. Pretty much, with this, you’ll have a pretty good idea of how the category is gonna turn out.

Today is Best Actress. The only major category that has a chance to surprise. Right? Maybe? For once?

Year Best Actress Winners Other Nominees
1927-1928 Janet Gaynor, Seventh Heaven & Street Angel & Sunrise Louise Dresser, A Ship Comes In

Gloria Swanson, Sadie Thompson

1928-1929 Mary Pickford, Coquette Ruth Chatterton, Madame X

Betty Compson, The Barker

Jeanne Eagels, The Letter

Corrinne Griffith, The Divine Lady

Bessie Love, The Broadway Melody

1929-1930 Norma Shearer, The Divorcee Nancy Carroll, The Devil’s Holiday

Ruth Chatterton, Sarah and Son

Greta Garbo, Anna Christie & Romance

Norma Shearer, Their Own Desire

Gloria Swanson, The Tresspasser

1930-1931 Marie Dressler, Min and Bill Marlene Dietrich, Morocco

Irene Dunne, Cimarron

Ann Harding, Holiday

Norma Shearer, A Free Soul

1931-1932 Helen Hayes, The Sin of Madelon Claudet Marie Dressler, Emma

Lynn Fontaine, The Guardsman

1932-1933 Katharine Hepburn, Morning Glory May Robson, Lady for a Day

Diana Wynyard, Cavalcade

1934 Claudette Colbert, It Happened One Night Grace Moore, One Night of Love

Norma Shearer, The Barretts of Wimpole Street

Bette Davis, Of Human Bondage

1935 Bette Davis, Dangerous Elisabeth Bergner, Escape Me Never

Claudette Colbert, Private Worlds

Katharine Hepburn, Alice Adams

Miriam Hopkins, Becky Sharp

Merle Oberon, The Dark Angel

1936 Luise Rainer, The Great Ziegfeld Irene Dunne, Theodora Goes Wild

Gladys George, Valiant is the Word for Carrie

Carole Lombard, My Man Godfrey

Norma Shearer, Romeo and Juliet

1937 Luise Rainer, The Good Earth Irene Dunne, The Awful Truth

Greta Garbo, Camille

Janet Gaynor, A Star is Born

Barbara Stanwyck, Stella Dallas

1938 Bette Davis, Jezebel Fay Bainter, White Banners

Wendy Hiller, Pygmalion

Norma Shearer, Marie Antoinette

Margaret Sullivan, Three Comrades

1939 Vivien Leigh, Gone with the Wind Bette Davis, Dark Victory

Irene Dunne, Love Affair

Greta Garbo, Ninotchka

Greer Garson, Goodbye, Mr. Chips

1940 Ginger Rogers, Kitty Foyle Bette Davis, The Letter

Joan Fontaine, Rebecca

Katharine Hepburn, The Philadelphia Story

Martha Scott, Our Town

1941 Joan Fontaine, Suspicion Bette Davis, The Little Foxes

Olivia de Havilland, Hold Back the Dawn

Greer Garson, Blossoms in the Dust

Barbara Stanwyck, Ball of Fire

1942 Greer Garson, Mrs. Miniver Bette Davis, Now, Voyager

Katharine Hepburn, Woman of the Year

Rosalind Russell, My Sister Eileen

Teresa Wright, The Pride of the Yankees

1943 Jennifer Jones, The Song of Bernadette Jean Arthur, The More the Merrier

Ingrid Bergman, For Whom the Bell Tolls

Joan Fontaine, The Constant Nymph

Greer Garson, Madame Curie

1944 Ingrid Bergman, Gaslight Claudette Colbert, Since You Went Away

Bette Davis, Mr. Skeffington

Greer Garson, Mrs. Parkington

Barbara Stanwyck, Double Indemnity

1945 Joan Crawford, Mildred Pierce Ingrid Bergman, The Bells of St. Mary’s

Greer Garson, The Valley of Decision

Jennifer Jones, Love Letters

Gene Tierney, Leave Her to Heaven

1946 Olivia de Havilland, To Each His Own Celia Johnson, Brief Encounter

Jennifer Jones, Duel in the Sun

Rosalind Russell, Sister Kenny

Jane Wyman, The Yearling

1947 Loretta Young, The Farmer’s Daughter Joan Crawford, Possessed

Susan Hayward, Smash-up, the Story of a Woman

Dorothy McGuire, Gentleman’s Agreement

Rosalind Russell, Mourning Becomes Electra

1948 Jane Wyman, Johnny Belinda Ingrid Bergman, Joan of Arc

Olivia de Havilland, The Snake Pit

Irene Dunne, I Remember Mama

Barbara Stanwyck, Sorry, Wrong Number

1949 Olivia de Havilland, The Heiress Jeanne Crain, Pinky

Susan Hayward, My Foolish Heart

Deborah Kerr, Edward, My Son

Loretta Young, Come to the Stable

1950 Judy Holliday, Born Yesterday Anne Baxter, All About Eve

Betty Davis, All About Eve

Eleanor Parker, Caged

Gloria Swanson, Sunset Boulevard

1951 Vivien Leigh, A Streetcar Named Desire Katharine Hepburn, The African Queen

Eleanor Parker, Detective Story

Shelley Winters, A Place in the Sun

Jane Wyman, The Blue Veil

1952 Shirley Booth, Come Back, Little Sheba Joan Crawford, Sudden Fear

Bette Davis, The Star

Julie Harris, The Member of the Wedding

Susan Hayward, With a Song in My Heart

1953 Audrey Hepburn, Roman Holiday Leslie Caron, Lili

Ava Gardner, Mogambo

Deborah Kerr, From Here to Eternity

Maggie McNamara, The Moon is Blue

1954 Grace Kelly, The Country Girl Dorothy Dandridge, Carmen Jones

Judy Garland, A Star is Born

Audrey Hepburn, Sabrina

Jane Wyman, Magnificent Obsession

1955 Anna Magnani, The Rose Tattoo Susan Hayward, I’ll Cry Tomorrow

Katharine Hepburn, Summertime

Jennifer Jones, Love is a Many-Splendored Thing

Eleanor Parker, Interrupted Melody

1956 Ingrid Bergman, Anastasia Carroll Baker, Baby Doll

Katharine Hepburn, The Rainmaker

Nancy Kelly, The Bad Seed

Deborah Kerr, The King and I

1957 Joanne Woodward, The Three Faces of Eve Deborah Kerr, Heaven Knows, Mr. Allison

Anna Magnani, Wild is the Wind

Elizabeth Taylor, Raintree County

Lana Turner, Peyton Place

1958 Susan Hayward, I Want to Live! Deborah Kerr, Separate Tables

Shirley MacLaine, Some Came Running

Rosalind Russell, Auntie Mame

Elizabeth Taylor, Cat on a Hot Tin Roof

1959 Simone Signoret, Room at the Top Doris Day, Pillow Talk

Audrey Hepburn, The Nun’s Story

Katharine Hepburn, Suddenly, Last Summer

Elizabeth Taylor, Suddenly, Last Summer

1960 Elizabeth Taylor, BUtterfield 8 Greer Garson, Sunrise at Campobello

Deborah Kerr, The Sundowners

Shirley MacLaine, The Apartment

Melina Mercouri, Never on Sunday

1961 Sophia Loren, Two Women Audrey Hepburn, Breakfast at Tiffany’s

Piper Laurie, The Hustler

Geraldine Page, Summer and Smoke

Natalie Wood, Splendor in the Grass

1962 Anne Bancroft, The Miracle Worker Bette Davis, What Ever Happened to Baby Jane?

Katharine Hepburn, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Geraldine Page, Sweet Bird of Youth

Lee Remick, Days of Wine and Roses

1963 Patricia Neal, Hud Leslie Caron, The L-Shaped Room

Shirley MacLaine, Irma La Douce

Rachel Roberts, This Sporting Life

Natalie Wood, Love with the Proper Stranger

1964 Julie Andrews, Mary Poppins Anne Bancroft, The Pumpkin Eater

Sophia Loren, Marriage, Italian Style

Debbie Reynolds, The Unsinkable Molly Brown

Kim Stanley, Séance on a Wet Afternoon

1965 Julie Christie, Darling Julie Andrews, The Sound of Music

Samantha Eggar, The Collector

Elizabeth Hartman, A Patch of Blue

Simone Signoret, Ship of Fools

1966 Elizabeth Taylor, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? Anouk Aimée, A Man and a Woman

Ida Kaminska, The Shop on Main Street

Lynn Redgrave, Georgy Girl

Vanessa Redgrave, Morgan!

1967 Katharine Hepburn, Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner? Anne Bancroft, The Graduate

Faye Dunaway, Bonnie and Clyde

Edith Evans, The Whisperers

Audrey Hepburn, Wait Until Dark

1968 TIE

Katharine Hepburn, The Lion in Winter

Barbra Streisand, Funny Girl

Patricia Neal, The Subject Was Roses

Vanessa Redgrave, Isadora

Joanne Woodward, Rachel, Rachel

1969 Maggie Smith, The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie Geneviève Bujold, Anne of the Thousand Days

Jane Fonda, They Shoot Horses, Don’t They?

Liza Minnelli, The Sterile Cuckoo

Jean Simmons, The Happy Ending

1970 Glenda Jackson, Women in Love Jane Alexander, The Great White Hope

Ali MacGraw, Love Story

Sarah Miles, Ryan’s Daughter

Carrie Snodgress, Diary of a Mad Housewife

1971 Jane Fonda, Klute Julie Christie, McCabe & Mrs. Miller

Glenda Jackson, Sunday Bloody Sunday

Vanessa Redgrave, Mary, Queen of Scots

Janet Suzman – Nicholas and Alexandra

1972 Liza Minnelli, Cabaret Diana Ross, Lady Sings the Blues

Maggie Smith, Travels with My Aunt

Cicely Tyson, Sounder

Liv Ullmann, The Emigrants

1973 Glenda Jackson, A Touch of Class Ellen Burstyn, The Exorcist

Marsha Mason, Cinderella Liberty

Barbra Streisand, The Way We Were

Joanne Woodward, Summer Wishes, Winter Dreams

1974 Ellen Burstyn, Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore Diahann Carroll, Claudine

Faye Dunaway, Chinatown

Valerie Perrine, Lenny

Gena Rowlands, A Woman Under the Influence

1975 Louise Fletcher, One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest Ann-Margret, Tommy

Isabelle Adjani, The Story of Adele H.

Glenda Jackson, Hedda

Carol Kane, Hester Street

1976 Faye Dunaway, Network Marie-Christine Barrault, Cousin, cousine

Talia Shire, Rocky

Sissy Spacek, Carrie

Liv Ullmann, Face to Face

1977 Diane Keaton, Annie Hall Anne Bancroft, The Turning Point

Jane Fonda, Julia

Shirley MacLaine, The Turning Point

Marsha Mason, The Goodbye Girl

1978 Jane Fonda, Coming Home Ingrid Bergman, Autumn Sonata

Ellen Burstyn, Same Time, Next Year

Jill Clayburgh, An Unmarried Woman

Geraldine Page, Interiors

1979 Sally Field, Norma Rae Jill Clayburgh, Starting Over

Jane Fonda, The China Syndrome

Marsha Mason, Chapter Two

Bette Midler, The Rose

1980 Sissy Spacek, Coal Miner’s Daughter Ellen Burstyn, Resurrection

Goldie Hawn, Private Benjamin

Mary Tyler Moore, Ordinary People

Gena Rowlands, Gloria

1981 Katharine Hepburn, On Golden Pond Diane Keaton, Reds

Marsha Mason, Only When I Laugh

Susan Sarandon, Atlantic City

Meryl Streep, The French Lieutenant’s Woman

1982 Meryl Streep, Sophie’s Choice Julie Andrews, Victor Victoria

Jessica Lange, Frances

Sissy Spacek, Missing

Debra Winger, An Officer and a Gentleman

1983 Shirley MacLaine, Terms of Endearment Jane Alexander, Testament

Meryl Streep, Silkwood

Julie Walters, Educating Rita

Debra Winger, Terms of Endearment

1984 Sally Field, Places in the Heart Judy Davis, A Passage to India

Jessica Lange, Country

Vanessa Redgrave, The Bostonians

Sissy Spacek, The River

1985 Geraldine Page, The Trip to Bountiful Anne Bancroft, Agnes of God

Whoopi Goldberg, The Color Purple

Jessica Lange, Sweet Dreams

Meryl Streep, Out of Africa

1986 Marlee Matlin, Children of a Lesser God Jane Fonda, The Morning After

Sissy Spacek, Crimes of the Heart

Kathleen Turner, Peggy Sue Got Married

Sigourney Weaver, Aliens

1987 Cher, Moonstruck Glenn Close, Fatal Attraction

Holly Hunter, Broadcast News

Sally Kirkland, Anna

Meryl Streep, Ironweed

1988 Jodie Foster, The Accused Glenn Close, Dangerous Liaisons

Melanie Griffith, Working Girl

Meryl Streep, A Cry in the Dark

Sigourney Weaver, Gorillas in the Mist

1989 Jessica Tandy, Driving Miss Daisy Isabelle Adjani, Camille Claudel

Pauline Collins, Shirley Valentine

Jessica Lange, Music Box

Michelle Pfeiffer, The Fabulous Baker Boys

1990 Kathy Bates, Misery Anjelica Huston, The Grifters

Julia Roberts, Pretty Woman

Meryl Streep, Postcards from the Edge

Joanne Woodward, Mr. and Mrs. Bridge

1991 Jodie Foster, The Silence of the Lambs Geena Davis, Thelma & Louise

Laura Dern, Rambling Rose

Bette Midler, For the Boys

Susan Sarandon, Thelma & Louise

1992 Emma Thompson, Howards End Catherine Deneuve, Indochine

Mary McDonnell, Passion Fish

Michelle Pfeiffer, Love Field

Susan Sarandon, Lorenzo’s Oil

1993 Holly Hunter, The Piano Angela Bassett, What’s Love Got to Do with It

Stockhard Channing, Six Degrees of Separation

Emma Thompson, The Remains of the Day

Debra Winger, Shadowlands

1994 Jessica Lange, Blue Sky Jodie Foster, Nell

Miranda Richardson, Tom & Viv

Winona Ryder, Little Women

Susan Sarandon, The Client

1995 Susan Sarandon, Dead Man Walking Elisabeth Shue, Leaving Las Vegas

Sharon Stone, Casino

Meryl Streep, The Bridges of Madison County

Emma Thompson, Sense and Sensibility

1996 Frances McDormand, Fargo Brenda Blethyn, Secrets & Lies

Diane Keaton, Marvin’s Room

Kristin Scott Thomas, The English Patient

Emily Watson, Breaking the Waves

1997 Helen Hunt, As Good as It Gets Helena Bonham Carter, The Wings of the Dove

Julie Christie, Afterglow

Judi Dench, Mrs. Brown

Kate Winslet, Titanic

1998 Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth

Fernanda Montenegro, Central Station

Meryl Streep, One True Thing

Emily Watson, Hilary and Jackie

1999 Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry Annette Bening, American Beauty

Janet McTeer, Tumbleweeds

Julianne Moore, The End of the Affair

Meryl Streep, Music of the Heart

2000 Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich Joan Allen, The Contender

Juliette Binoche, Chocolat

Ellen Burstyn, Requiem for a Dream

Laura Linney, You Can Count on Me

2001 Halle Berry, Monster’s Ball Judi Dench, Iris

Nicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge!

Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom

Renée Zellweger, Bridget Jones’s Diary

2002 Nicole Kidman, The Hours Salma Hayek, Frida

Diane Lane, Unfaithful

Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven

Renée Zellweger, Chicago

2003 Charlize Theron, Monster Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider

Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give

Samantha Morton, In America

Naomi Watts, 21 Grams

2004 Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby Annette Bening, Being Julia

Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace

Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake

Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

2005 Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents

Felicity Huffman, Transamerica

Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice

Charlize Theron, North Country

2006 Helen Mirren, The Queen Penèlope Cruz, Volver

Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal

Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada

Kate Winslet, Little Children

2007 Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age

Julie Christie, Away from Her

Laura Linney, The Savages

Ellen Page, Juno

2008 Kate Winslet, The Reader Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married

Angelina Jolie, Changeling

Melissa Leo, Frozen River

Meryl Streep, Doubt

2009 Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side Helen Mirren, The Last Station

Carey Mulligan, An Education

Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire

Meryl Streep, Julia and Julia

2010 Natalie Portman, Black Swan Annette Bening, The Kids are All Right

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone

Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

2011 Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Viola Davis, The Help

Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

2012 Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

2013 Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine Amy Adams, American Hustle

Judi Dench, Philomena

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

2014 Julianne Moore, Still Alice Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

2015 Brie Larson, Room

 

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

2016 Emma Stone, La La Land Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Ruth Negga, Loving

Natalie Portman, Jackie

Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

2017 Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Meryl Streep, The Post

SAG is the precursor here. They’re 17/23 all-time. Here are the six misses:

  • 1994, Jodie Foster won SAG, Jessica Lange won the Oscar.
  • 1999, Annette Bening won SAG, Hilary Swank won the Oscar.
  • 2002, Renée Zellweger won SAG, Nicole Kidman won the Oscar.
  • 2007, Julie Christie won SAG, Marion Cotillard won the Oscar.
  • 2008, Meryl won SAG, Kate Winslet won the Oscar. (Though she also won SAG Supporting for that same performance.)
  • 2011, Viola Davis won SAG, Meryl won the Oscar.

So, five real misses. Generally, you listen to them, unless there’s a clear duel going on, in which case you give them preference but still go with what makes sense.

This year, we don’t really need much of the complexity, since every precursor to this point went to Frances McDormand. BAFTA is announcing on Sunday, but I think we all assume that’s going her way as well. And until (and even if) it doesn’t, we can parse this one fully at this point.

#1 – 18 times

#2 – 24 times

#3 – 15 times

#4 – 16 times

#5 – 16 times

#6 – 1 time

The #6 was Mary Pickford, the one time there were six nominees. Outside of that, #2 wins the most.

The last #1 to win was Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

The last #2 to win was Frances McDormand

The last #3 to win was Brie Larson, Room

The last #4 to win was Emma Stone

The last #5 to win was Kate Winslet, The Reader

Best Actress

This was the only category that made sense throughout the season. Other people got precursors — namely Jessica Chastain. Judi Dench got SAG, but no one took that seriously. Other people got minor precursors, but in the end, there were six real choices, and one of the two fighting for the fifth spot was Meryl, who they will nominate for literally anything. So no real surprises here.

This was also one of those years where, pretty much as soon as they announced nominations, you saw the clear path for the winner mapped out. Kinda like last year, only much more certain. Last year, the minute the category was locked, you saw that lane for Emma Stone to use to slide into a win. And once the early precursors landed, you saw it all playing out. This year, the minute you saw that list, you knew — “Frances McDormand.” At least, I did. Unless things started going wildly differently early on, it just felt all downhill. And it has been. Once the Globes happened, it felt locked. And then BFCA four days later. Since then, no one’s been able to make up any ground. And here we are.

Rankings:

5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? — I’ve made the decision to put McCarthy fifth. Because why was she even fourth in the first place? Here’s someone who hit every precursor and lost every precursor to someone else on this list. They clearly like her and the performance, but no one seems to care enough to vote for it. And her film doesn’t have 8+ nominations. So she’s fifth. Who thinks she’s got any shot at this?

4. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma — Her film has 10 nominations and will win a bunch of them. She might get votes. Some people might love this enough to take her too. Of course, she missed the only precursor she was nominated for. But hey, she’s got more category freshness than Melissa McCarthy does, so I’ll put her fourth. No one thinks either of these bottom two has a chance, so who cares?

3. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born — She’s at least got a BFCA tie under her belt. No one really thinks she can win BAFTA. The buzz for her film has died down and now it’s more of a “good job out of you” feeling for her. This role has never won the Oscar, and it doesn’t look like that’s gonna continue here. She’ll get votes. That’s for sure. But missing SAG was a big deal. That would have kept her in it. Now she’ll need BAFTA to seem like a legitimate contender. And I don’t think she’s getting it. So she’s going in a third choice. Theoretically it could happen, but it’s seeming like a much longer shot. Especially if Glenn Close also wins the BAFTA.

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite — Here’s the deal, if she wins the BAFTA, she’s the second choice. If not, she’s pretty much out of it. All she has right now is the Globe for Musical/Comedy. I’m putting her here because I know the history behind the Gaga nomination/role and Colman seems like she’s gonna win BAFTA. But if not, then this one’s pretty much a wrap.

1. Glenn Close, The Wife — If she doesn’t win the Oscar, let me say here and now that I will make a “Close but no cigar” joke. But right now, she has the Globe, she won BFCA, even in a tie, and she won SAG. So she’s the favorite and she’s probably gonna win the Oscar. If she wins BAFTA, then it’s locked. If either Colman or Gaga wins the BAFTA, then it’s more open than we thought. Gaga would really make it a race again. Colman would just make her the second choice with Close a probable winner anyway. Still, until BAFTA and even until Oscar night, she is your most likely winner of the award. This one seems pretty cut and dry right now. SAG shut this one down pretty tightly.

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  1. Pingback: The B+ Oscar Ballot: Guide to the 91st Academy Awards – Site Title

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