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2018: BAFTA Awards

All right. BAFTAs just got given out. This is the last major puzzle we have left for the Oscars. There are still five guilds left to announce. One of them is pretty important, two of them I can use but probably don’t need, one I definitely don’t need because the winner is obvious and the fifth is irrelevant. This is the one where the winners are gonna influence how I see certain races playing out.

I’ve got nothing else in the way of an introduction. So let’s just see how they voted.

Here are your 2018 BAFTA winners:

Best Film

BlacKkKlansman

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

A Star Is Born

Winner: Roma

Whoa. I thought for sure this would go Favourite. And then Bohemian for British Film. This must mean The Favourite won British film.

And this also tells me what I figured the Best Picture play would be. Roma seems your likely winner and then Green Book having won the PGA just means the Producers still don’t take Netflix seriously as a distributor and refused to vote for Roma. Could be wrong, but at this point, those are the only two films that have any precursors, and Bohemian Rhapsody has the Globe for Drama, but that’s because Roma couldn’t be nominated there. So yeah, that eliminates my thought that The Favourite had a chance at it. This looks like Roma’s to lose.

Best British Film

Beast

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

McQueen

Stan & Ollie

You Were Never Really Here

Winner: The Favourite

There it is. Makes me think people do really like it, and it’ll get votes, but hard to see it as anything more than like, a third choice for Best Picture. It’s won nothing so far. It should end up with at least two wins on the night, so it won’t be completely empty-handed, but I can’t see it being a major Best Picture contender based on the haul so far.

Also this does mean that despite the Bohemian Rhapsody love, it’s not a major contender to win Best Picture. So that’s good, I guess.

Best Director

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War

Winner: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

That’s a clean sweep for him. He’s pretty much guaranteed this category no matter how Best Picture turns out. Mostly I’m just curious how many he actually wins on Oscar night. He’s set up for four out of five. Not sure he wins Screenplay, but Director, Cinematography, Foreign Language and Picture all seem pretty likely. Big night for Alfonso.

Best Actor

Christian Bale, Vice

Steve Coogan, Stan & Ollie

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Winner: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

And that’s completely turned that tide. Truly didn’t see that one happening, but hey, here we are. He is now the decided favorite for Best Actor. SAG and BAFTA and the Globe for Drama. Bale has BFCA and the Globe for Comedy, so he’s not out, but at this point you have to put Malek as the most likely winner and Bale as the alternate. I guess the comedy of Bale’s film really did mean something. Or maybe I’m just wrong. Maybe the American actor playing the quintessentially British character was stronger than the British actor playing the (arguably quintessential, based on the damage he’s done throughout the world) American character.

I wonder if Bale doesn’t still take this. But at this point, you have to consider Malek the most likely winner based on what we’ve seen. I like that it’s a toss up. Usually the acting categories are automatic and easy.

Best Actress

Glenn Close, The Wife

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Viola Davis, Widows

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Winner: Olivia Colman, The Favourite

That was expected. That was the only thing left that could make this one interesting. Colman now has the Globe and BAFTA, Close has SAG, BFCA and the Globe, and Gaga has a BFCA tie. So still looking like Glenn Close, but Colman still is firmly in the conversation. You could definitely make a potential case for her. This one seems more 75/25 and not 50/50, but it’s definitely up for discussion. So that’s nice.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Winner: Mahershala Ali, Green Book

That’s a clean sweep for him, and I don’t think we expected much of anything different. Richard E. Grant I thought had a shot at this because of the fact that he’s British. But they went all in on Mahershala, so that about sews up this category. Sam Elliott is the only one with a small chance, and that’s just because he didn’t have to face Mahershala at SAG and because he’s a veteran. Still don’t see it happening, though.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice

Claire Foy, First Man

Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Winner: Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

This was the only outcome. They didn’t go off the board like SAG did. Weisz now becomes a second choice behind Regina King, and the only reason the race seems slightly closer than it should is because King wasn’t nominated at SAG or BAFTA. I feel like she should still be the Oscar frontrunner, somehow. Probably the vote split. But Weisz is still there. I like that we only have one locked acting category this year.

Best Original Screenplay

Cold War

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

Vice

Winner: The Favourite

Not surprising at all. It’s Green Book vs. The Favourite at the Oscars, and the WGA won’t help us since The Favourite was ineligible. So we’re left with seeing if Green Book wins there and just sort of guessing after that.

Best Adapted Screenplay

BlacKkKlansman

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

A Star Is Born

Winner: BlacKkKlansman

Nice. Makes sense, since Beale Street didn’t register with them. Spike is the only major contender here outside of Jenkins. I’m starting to get the sense that they’re gonna reward Spike after all the years of ignoring him. But I still think Jenkins could take it. It’s curious to me that the USC Scripter went off the board for the first time in 20 years, which tells me that this one is pretty wide open. I wanna see where the WGA goes. They have almost the exact same Oscar category, so that should tell us where the writers are leaning, which will help sort of guide us from there. I’m thinking it might be Spike or Barry who wins.

Best Editing

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

First Man

Roma

Vice

Winner: Vice

Yeah, that makes sense. That Big Short editing. It’s sneaky Oscar contender too. This is gonna be a 2011-type category. Roma is out, so we’re left with Vice winning BAFTA, Bohemian Rhapsody and The Favourite winning ACE and BFCA going off the board. Green Book and BlacKkKlansman are also both there, and one if not both of those could also be contenders. This will be a very interesting year. This is one I’m gonna have to think long and hard about.

Best Cinematography

Bohemian Rhapsody

Cold War

The Favourite

First Man

Roma

Winner: Roma

Yeah, that’s what I expected. I thought they might go Cold War like ACS did, but it’s clear the guild went for the cinematographer over the director. Roma should win the Oscar category pretty handily.

Best Music

BlacKkKlansman

If Beale Street Could Talk

Isle of Dogs

Mary Poppins Returns

A Star Is Born

Winner: A Star Is Born

Thanks, guys. Way to also go completely off the board.

First Man won the Globe and BFCA and now this. So now we’re left with an Oscar category in which nobody won any precursors. Fun stuff, guys.

Best Production Design

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

The Favourite

First Man

Mary Poppins Returns

Roma

Winner: The Favourite

That might be a clean sweep for them. Oh no. It won the guild and BAFTA, and Black Panther won BFCA and also the guild. So it’s 50/50 going into Oscar night with the edge probably going to the film with the most overall nominations. Black Panther not being nominated here probably also is another reason the edge should be going to The Favourite. Still, a 50/50 going into Oscar night helps. Makes it easier to make a decision and then leave the hard thinking for stuff like Editing.

Best Costume Design

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary, Queen of Scots

Winner: The Favourite

I mean, yeah. CDG announces in the next ten days, and I can’t imagine we’re expecting anything other than this winning in Period. Black Panther probably still remains a contender with a BFCA win and probably also an eventual guild win, but it’s frills and a Best Picture contender. What more do you need?

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Mary, Queen of Scots

Stan & Ollie

Vice

Winner: The Favourite

And of course they went off the board.

Shouldn’t matter. Who doesn’t think Vice is winning this category cold?

Best Sound

Bohemian Rhapsody

First Man

Mission: Impossible – Fallout

A Quiet Place

A Star Is Born

Winner: Bohemian Rhapsody

Interesting. I’ll have to plug that into my Sound calculations and see if that matters. I don’t know offhand how BAFTA Sound winners do at the Oscars. The guilds always announce right toward the end, so we’re pretty much in the dark until we get those.

I still don’t see how First Man isn’t the presumed winner in at least one of them, but I can definitely see some sort of insane scenario where that doesn’t happen, and it’ll have something to do with Bohemian Rhapsody and/or A Star Is Born. But we’ll see. The guilds still have to announce, and there are two categories and not one like there is here.

Best Visual Effects

Avengers: Infinity War

Black Panther

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

First Man

Ready Player One

Winner: Black Panther

No surprise. This is how they get to show support. Thank god it wasn’t nominated at the Oscars so I didn’t have to think about how a film with subpar effects was probably going to win the entire category.

Though now we are left wondering where the category will end up going, since Avengers won the guild and both other precursors went off the board. Interesting, interesting,, interesting.

Best Animated Film

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Winner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Clean sweep. That about wraps that one up.

Best Foreign Language Film

Capernaum

Cold War

Dogman

Roma

Shoplifters

Winner: Roma

Yeah, that’s how that one will go. People may vote against it in Picture and take it here thinking that’s where it gets the vote, but that only enhances its chances here. This is one where you’re just gonna have to let Cold War beat you because there’s no way you can go against Roma.

Best Documentary

Free Solo

McQueen

RBG

They Shall Not Grow Old

Three Identical Strangers

Winner: Free Solo

Yeah, that’s cool. Figured they’d go Peter Jackson, because that is the best documentary on this list, but they went Solo. Works for me. It’s RBG vs. this at the Oscars. I assume RBG didn’t win because it’s an American political documentary. Still think it’s a clear 50/50 for the Oscars. Either could win. No fucking clue where it goes, though.

Best British Short

73 Cows

Bachelow

The Blue Door

The Field

Wale

Winner: 73 Cows

That’s a lot of cows.

Best British Animated Short

I’m Ok

Marfa

Roughhouse

Winner: Roughhouse

Marfa. I wonder if it’s about the city or the name of a person.

Best Debut Film

Apostasy

Beast

A Cambodian Spring

Pili

Ray & Liz

Winner: Beast

I heard good things about it.

Rising Star Award

Barry Keoghan

Cynthia Erivo

Jessie Buckley

Lakeith Stanfield

Letitia Wright

Winner: Letitia Wright

Sure. No real surprise. Plus at least two of these already broke and were rising like a year or two ago. Cynthia Erivo is gonna break this year, even though she half-broke last year (meaning 2018). Letitia Wright makes sense, especially since it’s all fan voting.

– – – – – – – – – – –

So yeah, there you have it. BAFTAs. That wasn’t as helpful as you’d have thought. There are gonna be at least four or five wide open categories come Oscar night. And that’s exciting. I hope everybody’s ballots get savaged.

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