Oscars 2018 Category Breakdown: Best Picture

So what we do here each year as a warm up for the Oscars is, I break down each of the 24 categories. The idea is to both familiarize everyone with the category and its history. I look at what the major trends are throughout the past bunch of years, how the precursors tend to go, whether they matter or not, that sort of stuff. I look at how the category came to be this year, and just anything else that seems totally pertinent about it. Then I rank each of the nominees and tell you what their likelihood (at this particular moment in time) of winning is.

This is all prelude to my giant Oscar ballot that I’m gonna give you. But I figure, if you have these as the warmup, it’s not as intimidating. You’ll have seen a lot of the pertinent trends here and we’ll all be able to reference these as a sort of cheat sheet. Plus it shows you where my head is at for how I think each of the categories are gonna go, and you can see me working my way up to all the bad decisions I usually make while guessing. Pretty much, with this, you’ll have a pretty good idea of how the category is gonna turn out.

And we finish with Best Picture, as we usually do. A much more interesting race than the last couple have been, that’s for sure.

Year Best Picture Winner Other Nominees
1927-1928 Wings The Racket

Seventh Heaven

1928-1929 The Broadway Melody Alibi

The Hollywood Revue of 1929

In Old Arizona

The Patriot

1929-1930 All Quiet on the Western Front The Big House

Disraeli

The Divorcee

The Love Parade

1930-1931 Cimarron East Lynne

The Front Page

Skippy

Trader Horn

1931-1932 Grand Hotel Arrowsmith

Bad Girl

The Champ

Five Star Final

One Hour with You

Shanghai Express

The Smiling Lieutenant

1932-1933 Cavalcade A Farewell to Arms

42nd Street

I Am a Fugitive from a Chain Gang

Lady for a Day

Little Women

The Private Life of Henry VIII

She Done Him Wrong

Smilin’ Through

State Fair

1934 It Happened One Night The Barretts of Wimpole Street

Cleopatra

Flirtation Walk

The Gay Divorcee

Here Comes the Navy

The House of Rothschild

Imitation of Life

One Night of Love

The Thin Man

Viva Villa!

The White Parade

1935 Mutiny on the Bounty Alice Adams

Broadway Melody of 1936

Captain Blood

David Copperfield

The Informer

The Lives of a Bengal Lancer

A Midsummer Night’s Dream

Les Misérables

Naughty Marietta

Ruggles of Red Gap

1936 The Great Ziegfeld Anthony Adverse

Dodsworth

Libeled Lady

Mr. Deeds Goes to Town

Romeo and Juliet

San Francisco

The Story of Louis Pasteur

A Tale of Two Cities

Three Smart Girls

1937 The Life of Emile Zola The Awful Truth

Captains Courageous

Dead End

The Good Earth

In Old Chicago

Lost Horizon

One Hundred Men and a Girl

Stage Door

A Star is Born

1938 You Can’t Take It with You The Adventures of Robin Hood

Alexander’s Ragtime Band

Boys Town

The Citadel

Four Daughters

Grand Illusion

Jezebel

Pygmalion

Test Pilot

1939 Gone With the Wind Dark Victory

Goodbye Mr. Chips

Love Affair

Mr. Smith Goes to Washington

Ninotchka

Of Mice and Men

Stagecoach

The Wizard of Oz

Wuthering Heights

1940 Rebecca All This, and Heaven Too

Foreign Correspondent

The Grapes of Wrath

The Great Dictator

Kitty Foyle

The Letter

The Long Voyage Home

Our Town

The Philadelphia Story

1941 How Green Was My Valley Blossoms in the Dust

Citizen Kane

Here Comes Mr. Jordan

Hold Back the Dawn

The Little Foxes

The Maltese Falcon

One Foot in Heaven

Sergeant York

Suspicion

1942 Mrs. Miniver 49th Parallel

Kings Row

The Magnificent Ambersons

The Pied Piper

The Pride of the Yankees

Random Harvest

The Talk of the Town

Wake Island

Yankee Doodle Dandy

1943 Casablanca For Whom the Bell Tolls

Heaven Can Wait

The Human Comedy

In Which We Serve

Madame Curie

The More the Merrier

The Ox-Bow Incident

The Song of Bernadette

Watch on the Rhine

1944 Going My Way Double Indemnity

Gaslight

Since You Went Away

Wilson

1945 The Lost Weekend Anchors Aweigh

The Bells of St. Mary’s

Mildred Pierce

Spellbound

1946 The Best Years of Our Lives Henry V It’s a Wonderful Life

The Razor’s Edge

The Yearling

1947 Gentleman’s Agreement The Bishop’s Wife

Crossfire

Great Expectations

Miracle on 34th Street

1948 Hamlet Johnny Belinda

The Red Shoe

The Snake Pit

The Treasure of the Sierra Madre

1949 All the King’s Men Battleground

The Heiress

A Letter to Three Wives

Twelve O’Clock High

1950 All About Eve Born Yesterday

Father of the Bride

King Solomon’s Mines

Sunset Boulevard

1951 An American in Paris Decision Before Dawn

A Place in the Sun

Quo Vadis

A Streetcar Named Desire

1952 The Greatest Show on Earth High Noon

Ivanhoe

Moulin Rouge

The Quiet Man

1953 From Here to Eternity Julius Caesar

The Robe

Roman Holiday

Shane

1954 On the Waterfront The Caine Mutiny

The Country Girl

Seven Brides for Seven Brothers

Three Coins in the Fountain

1955 Marty Love is a Many-Splendored Thing

Mister Roberts

Picnic

The Rose Tattoo

1956 Around the World in 80 Days Friendly Persuasion

Giant

The King and I

The Ten Commandments

1957 The Bridge on the River Kwai Peyton Place

Sayonara

12 Angry Men

Witness for Prosecution

1958 Gigi Auntie Mame

Cat on a Hot Tin Roof

The Defiant Ones

Separate Tables

1959 Ben-Hur Anatomy of a Murder

The Diary of Anne Frank

The Nun’s Story

Room at the Top

1960 The Apartment The Alamo

Elmer Gantry

Sons and Lovers

The Sundowners

1961 West Side Story Fanny

The Guns of Navarone

The Hustler

Judgment at Nuremberg

1962 Lawrence of Arabia The Longest Day

The Music Man

Mutiny on the Bounty

To Kill a Mockingbird

1963 Tom Jones America America

Cleopatra

How the West Was Won

Lilies of the Field

1964 My Fair Lady Becket

Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

Mary Poppins

Zorba the Greek

1965 The Sound of Music Darling

Doctor Zhivago

Ship of Fools

A Thousand Clowns

1966 A Man for All Seasons Alfie

The Russians are Coming the Russians are Coming

The Sand Pebbles

Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?

1967 In the Heat of the Night Bonnie and Clyde

Doctor Dolittle

The Graduate

Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner

1968 Oliver! Funny Girl

The Lion in Winter

Rachel Rache

lRomeo and Juliet

1969 Midnight Cowboy Anne of the Thousand Days

Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid

Hello Dolly!

Z

1970 Patton Airport

Five Easy Pieces

Love Story

MASH

1971 The French Connection A Clockwork Orange

Fiddler on the Roof

The Last Picture Show

Nicholas and Alexandra

1972 The Godfather Cabaret

Deliverance

The Emigrants

Sounder

1973 The Sting American Graffiti

Cries and Whispers

The Exorcist

A Touch of Class

1974 The Godfather Part II Chinatown

The Conversation

Lenny

The Towering Inferno

1975 One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest Barry Lyndon

Dog Day Afternoon

Jaws

Nashville

1976 Rocky All the President’s Men

Bound for Glory

Network

Taxi Driver

1977 Annie Hall The Goodbye Girl

Julia

Star Wars

The Turning Point

1978 The Deer Hunter Coming Home

Heaven Can Wait

Midnight Express

An Unmarried Woman

1979 Kramer vs. Kramer All That Jazz

Apocalypse Now

Breaking Away

Norma Rae

1980 Ordinary People Coal Miner’s Daughter

The Elephant Man

Raging Bull

Tess

1981 Chariots of Fire Atlantic City

On Golden Pond

Raiders of the Lost Ark

Reds

1982 Gandhi E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial

Missing

Tootsie

The Verdict

1983 Terms of Endearment The Big Chill

The Dresser

The Right Stuff

Tender Mercies

1984 Amadeus The Killing Fields

A Passage to India

Places in the Heart

A Soldier’s Story

1985 Out of Africa The Color Purple

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Prizzi’s Honor

Witness

1986 Platoon Children of a Lesser God

Hannah and Her Sisters

The Mission

A Room with a View

1987 The Last Emperor Broadcast News

Fatal Attraction

Hope and Glory

Moonstruck

1988 Rain Man The Accidental Tourist

Dangerous Liaisons

Mississippi Burning

Working Girl

1989 Driving Miss Daisy Born on the Fourth of July

Dead Poets Society

Field of Dreams

My Left Foot

1990 Dances with Wolves Awakenings

Ghost

The Godfather Part III

Goodfellas

1991 The Silence of the Lambs Beauty and the Beast

Bugsy

JFK

The Prince of Tides

1992 Unforgiven The Crying Game

A Few Good Men

Howards End

Scent of a Woman

1993 Schindler’s List The Fugitive

In the Name of the Father

The Piano

The Remains of the Day

1994 Forrest Gump Four Weddings and a Funeral

Pulp Fiction

Quiz Show

The Shawshank Redemption

1995 Braveheart Apollo 13

Babe

Il Postino

Sense and Sensibility

1996 The English Patient Fargo

Jerry Maguire

Secrets & Lies

Shine

1997 Titanic As Good as It Gets

The Full Monty

Good Will Hunting

L.A. Confidential

1998 Shakespeare in Love Elizabeth

Life is Beautiful

Saving Private Ryan

The Thin Red Line

1999 American Beauty The Cider House Rules

The Green Mile

The Insider

The Sixth Sense

2000 Gladiator Chocolat

Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon

Erin Brockovich

Traffic

2001 A Beautiful Mind Gosford Park

In the Bedroom

The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring

Moulin Rouge!

2002 Chicago Gangs of New York

The Hours

The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

The Pianist

2003 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King Lost in Translation

Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

Mystic River

Seabscuit

2004 Million Dollar Baby The Aviator

Finding Neverland

Ray

Sideways

2005 Crash Brokeback Mountain

Capote

Good Night and Good Luck

Munich

2006 The Departed Babel

Letters from Iwo Jima

Little Miss Sunshine

The Queen

2007 No Country for Old Men Atonement

Juno

Michael Clayton

There Will Be Blood

2008 Slumdog Millionaire The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Frost/Nixon

Milk

The Reader

2009 The Hurt Locker Avatar

The Blind Side

District 9

An Education

Inglourious Basterds

Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire

A Serious Man

Up

Up in the Air

2010 The King’s Speech Black Swan

The Fighter

Inception

The Kids Are All Right

127 Hours

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Winter’s Bone

2011 The Artist The Descendants

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

The Help

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

Moneyball

The Tree of Life

War Horse

2012 Argo Amour

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Les Misérables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

2013 12 Years a Slave American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Her

Nebraska

Philomena

The Wolf of Wall Street

2014 Birdman or: (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) American Sniper

Boyhood

The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Imitation Game

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Whiplash

2015 Spotlight The Big Short

Bridge of Spies

Brooklyn

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

2016 Moonlight Arrival 

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

2017 The Shape of Water Call Me By Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Get Out

Lady Bird

Phantom Thread

The Post

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This is the category that we generally have the most information about going into Oscar night, so it’s really just about looking at the precursors and where the winds are blowing.

The main precursor, of course, is the PGA. They used to be almost a sure-thing, but the past couple of years… not so much.

The PGA has given out awards since 1989, and their winner went on to win Best Picture all but nine times.:

  • 1992, The Crying Game wins the PGA, Unforgiven wins the Oscar.
  • 1995, Apollo 13 wins the PGA, Braveheart wins the Oscar.
  • 1998, Saving Private Ryan wins the PGA, Shakespeare in Love wins the Oscar.
  • 2001, Moulin Rouge! wins the PGA, A Beautiful Mind wins the Oscar.
  • 2004, The Aviator wins the PGA, Million Dollar Baby wins the Oscar.
  • 2005, Brokeback Mountain wins the PGA, Crash wins the Oscar.
  • 2006, Little Miss Sunshine wins the PGA, The Departed wins the Oscar.
  • 2015, The Big Short wins the PGA, Spotlight wins the Oscar.
  • 2016, La La Land wins the PGA, Moonlight wins the Oscar.

(2013 was a tie, where both Gravity and 12 Years a Slave won the PGA, and 12 Years a Slave won Best Picture. Technically they were both right and wrong at the same time, but I’m marking that as being correct.)

If the PGA gets it wrong this year, that would bring their tally down to 20/30, meaning they’re only right 2/3 of the time. And they’ll have missed three of the past four years.

We’ll go now to BFCA, which I feel has been more helpful in picking up the PGA’s slack than BAFTA has been.

Overall, they’ve given out awards since 1995, and they are 14/23, which is worse overall than the PGA. Looking specifically at the nine times the PGA has missed, though:

  • They did not give out awards in 1992.
  • 1995: BFCA had Sense and Sensibility
  • 1998: BFCA had Saving Private Ryan
  • 2001: BFCA had A Beautiful Mind
  • 2004: BFCA had Sideways
  • 2005: BFCA had Brokeback Mountain
  • 2006: BFCA had The Departed
  • 2015: BFCA had Spotlight
  • 2016: BFCA had La La Land

They picked up three of them, 2001, 2006 and 2015. So that’s something. Maybe.

BAFTA, meanwhile, tends to march to the beat of their own drum regardless. Going back to 1989, they are 12/29. Only 41%. Like I said, they do what they want. In the nine years specifically with the PGA misses:

  • 1992: BAFTA had Howards End
  • 1995: BAFTA had Sense and Sensibility
  • 1998: BAFTA had Shakespeare in Love
  • 2001: BAFTA had The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring
  • 2004: BAFTA had The Aviator
  • 2005: BAFTA had Brokeback Mountain
  • 2006: BAFTA had The Queen
  • 2015: BAFTA had The Revenant
  • 2016: BAFTA had La La Land

They picked up just one winner, and it was Shakespeare in Love, the quintessential BAFTA movie.

Also, since they are similar awards, we have SAG Ensemble and the Globes to look at as well. I don’t care how SAG Ensemble does historically, so I’ll just look at it versus the the nine PGA misses:

  • They did not hand out awards in 1992.
  • 1995: SAG had Apollo 13
  • 1998: SAG had Shakespeare in Love
  • 2001: SAG had Gosford Park
  • 2004: SAG had Sideways
  • 2005: SAG had Crash
  • 2006: SAG had Little Miss Sunshine
  • 2015: SAG had Spotlight
  • 2016: SAG had Hidden Figures

So that’s three of them.

And the Globes… they have two Best Picture categories, making it easier for them to get Best Picture right. Since 1989, they are 17/29. Not quite PGA, but not bad. Still about 60% though.

In the nine PGA misses specifically:

  • 1992: Scent of a Woman won Drama over Unforgiven
  • 1995: Sense and Sensibility won Drama over Braveheart
  • 1998: Saving Private Ryan won Drama (Shakespeare in Love won Comedy/Musical)
  • 2001: A Beautiful Mind won Drama.
  • 2004: The Aviator won Drama over Million Dollar Baby
  • 2005: Brokeback Mountain won Drama. Crash wasn’t even nominated.
  • 2006: Babel won Drama over The Departed
  • 2015: The Revenant won for Drama over Spotlight
  • 2016: Moonlight won Drama (La La Land won for Comedy/Musical)

So only once did they straight up pick the right winner. Every other year they had the same two winners as everyone else, basically.

Really what it means is the PGA gives you a frontrunner and you have to gauge it among all the other info you have.

One more thing, because I enjoy it. That percentages, numbers thing.

Here are which positions won Best Picture:

#1 — 23 times

#2 — 13 times

#3 — 15 times

#4 — 15 times

#5 — 15 times

#6 — 1 time

#7 — Never

#8 — 4 times

#9 — 2 times

#10 — 2 times

The #6 was The Life of Emile Zola in 1937. The #8s were It Happened One Night, 12 Years a Slave, Spotlight and The Shape of Water. The #9s were Mutiny on the Bounty and Moonlight. The #10s were You Can’t Take It With You and Rebecca.

  • The last #1 to win was The Artist.
  • The last #2 to win was Birdman.
  • The last #3 to win was Crash.
  • The last #4 to win was No Country for Old Men.
  • The last #5 to win was The King’s Speech.
  • The last #6 to win was The Life of Emile Zola.
  • #7 has never won.
  • The last #8 to win was The Shape of Water
  • The last #9 to win was Moonlight
  • The last #10 to win was Spotlight.

Obviously it skews more toward 1-5, because we had only five nominees for 65 years.

This year:

  • #1 — Black Panther
  • #3 — (tie) Bohemian Rhapsody
  • #4 — (tie) The Favourite
  • #5 — (tie) Green Book
  • #2 — BlacKkKlansman
  • #8 — Vice
  • #6 — Roma
  • #7 — A Star Is Born

That’s the order of likelihood to win based on the history. Was hoping we might get our first #7, but looks like we could get our second #6, which is cool.

Best Picture

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

A Star Is Born

Vice

This category was the exact same category we got throughout the race. These were the nine most lauded films on all the precursor lists. The only question was whether or not they’d have a ninth nominee. And the major contenders for that were the films that got the most nominations outside of Best Picture — Mary Poppins Returns, First Man and If Beale Street Could Talk. I thought Beale Street was the one with the most likelihood, but instead, we got the 8 we were expecting. No real surprises for a boring season.

And the precursors:

  • PGA: Green Book
  • BAFTA: Roma
  • BFCA: Roma
  • SAG Ensemble: Black Panther
  • Globe (Drama): Bohemian Rhapsody
  • Globe (Comedy): Green Book

Two favorites emerge, with two other films having precursors. Really the question is how we think the voting is gonna shake out. Here are my current thoughts:

Rankings:

8. Black Panther — I know, I know. “But SAG Ensemble!” I gotta tell you… I know this Academy. I’ve seen them do things for so long. They truly only nominated this because they are supporting representation. They don’t like superhero movies. They never have. No one truly thinks this is a good movie. They just voted for it for the message and nothing else. Now, that’s fine, to an extent. The idea that this is somehow going to win is an entirely different matter. I’m gonna die on the hill of “this will never happen” and if it does, then well we’ve crossed a bridge. I’d rather have that bridge be crossed being completely wrong. Forget what the internet says. The internet says a lot of things. Remember the 2016 election? The “silent majority”? The ones who stayed quiet and let their ballots do the talking? That’s this Academy. This will not get enough number one votes to contend. People will vote it either at the bottom or somewhere in the middle because “why not.” It’s not getting the number ones. It just isn’t. They don’t like these movies, they don’t vote for them, and them even nominating it is a mix of Disney having the money and the power to force it through and the fact that they truly didn’t want to seem like dinosaurs. You know how I know? Because if they truly cared about both representation and quality, If Beale Street Could Talk would be on this list. I think this is a huge red herring, and I’m saying it will not truly be a factor for a win. Case and point, everything else has bigger nominations. I don’t think anything has won without both Director or Editing since Grand Hotel. Which is a trick question, since Grand Hotel won before Best Editing was even a category. It’s never happened. So I’ll stick with the devil I know here and say it’s not happening. Just let it win.

7. Vice — This has both Director and Editing, is tied for second most nominations (well, two are tied for first with 10 and this is tied with Star Is Born with 8), and yet… I’m not sure I see the overall love for this. Where are the #1 votes coming from? There’s always one majorly nominated film that doesn’t feel like it has the support for a win. This is it. Granted, I could probably argue this to sixth, but I just don’t see it as winning. So no matter how much I wanna show this more respect, I feel like this could walk away almost nearly empty-handed, winning only Makeup & Hairstyling. I don’t see any particular love for this to the tune of a Best Picture win. So seventh we go.

6. Bohemian Rhapsody — I cannot explain where the love for this film is coming, but it’s there. It got both Sound categories, it got Picture, it got Editing. It didn’t get Director, but I think we all know why. It has everything you’d want to see it get. This is in that Vice category where I’m not sure I see where the #1 votes are all gonna come from, but I think it may get some. I think it could hang around a round or two of voting. I don’t think it gets very far, because some people will think it’s shit and vote it low and a lot of people (myself included, were I to have a vote), will have it in the middle of the ballot. I wouldn’t have it any higher than fifth on my ballot. And I suspect that’ll be the case for most people. Fourth or lower for a lot of them. So I don’t see it winning, but I see it as not being the least likely contender, if that makes sense. Plus, a Globes win for Drama, that’s not nothing, even if it isn’t a huge deal.

5. A Star Is Born — Eight overall nominations. It did miss both Editing and Director, which arguably means I should have it lower. But there’s love for this. I think this hangs around more than it ought to. You know it has Sean Penn’s vote, that’s for sure. I think some people will have this at #1, and it’ll get some support. Some people may have it top four, which will keep it around a bit. Doubt it gets top five in voting. Peaked too early, and like I said for Black Panther, never has something won without both an Editing or Director nomination. It’s hard enough to win without one of those things. Both… it’s never happened since both categories have existed. It’s 10 times ever without Editing and all of those got Director nominations. So it won’t win. But I think it will have more overall support than at least two of the films below it. Fifth or below for this one.

4. BlacKkKlansman — It’s got everything you want it to have. Picture, Director, Editing, an acting nomination and Screenplay. And they gave it Score for good measure. It has been across the board consistently nominated for things. However, the cynic in me wonders how much of that was also thought of as part of the “inclusion” thing I feel about Black Panther. Also, the other part of me basically knows that they’ll look to give Spike his Oscar in Screenplay and feel absolutely no compulsion to vote for this here. I could argue that this is even lower in terms of likelihood of winning, but honestly at this point, everything I’ve seen makes it really difficult not to see this as a two-horse race. I’m sure this will get votes, but in the absence of a precursor win, I’m really just grasping at what categories it’s nominated in and where it seems to be among everything else. This feels consistently like a “#4 nominee,” a term I’ve used many times in my Oscar Quest articles to describe the film that consistently has performed in the nominations stage as a strong nominee, and then once it’s nominated it just sort of there, and lacks any momentum at all for a win. That’s what this is. I’d argue that Star Is Born has more fervent support than this does, even though this has a lot of steady support there. It’s more the film that’ll be #4 and #3 on a lot of ballots, which is not the recipe for a win, even though it will probably hang around a while when they tally the votes. Though I guess an argument could be made for this going even lower than that. I don’t know. Feels like fourth to me right now.

3. The Favourite — It’s tied for most nominations. It got Yorgos a Director nomination. It’s got Editing, it’s got three acting nominations, it’s got Screenplay, and it’s got a bunch of tech nominations. Why is this somehow not being considered one of the top contenders for the win? Probably because it lost to either Roma or Green Book in every single precursor race, including BAFTA, where it only managed to win Best British Film and not Best Film. If it can’t win BAFTA, then where’s the Oscar support coming from? I’m basing this on nothing, but it sure looks like it’s a two-film race. How do you figure what wins if not the main two? Looking back, there’s only on year in the past twenty where something won Best Picture with zero precursor wins, and that’s Million Dollar Baby. And everyone felt that coming on strong. Here, there’s nothing coming on. There’s Crash, but that at least won SAG Ensemble, so someone cared. The Departed won BFCA. Spotlight won BFCA and SAG. Moonlight only had the Globe, but it was clearly a two film race there. So I can’t really figure out what the third choice is absent of precursors. I could put Bohemian Rhapsody or Black Panther here, but I don’t see it. Bohemian maybe, but I I don’t know. We’ll see where I end up on Sunday. I’ll call this the third choice for now, though.

2. Green Book — Normally you win the PGA and you’re the #1 contender. But we live in a new era. The PGA is starting to fall behind rather than set the pace. The Big Short won the PGA. La La Land. This feels like a vote against Netflix rather than a vote for Green Book. Plus, the Producers aren’t the biggest branch of the Academy. So this definitely makes it a top two choice, but I’m not sure it makes it the favorite. Could win, and it’s gotta be considered the second choice, because we’ve never once straight up discounted the PGA winner, but I don’t see this as the most likely winner. Oh, one more thing — I said it the minute I saw this start playing out — do you know the last movie that won Best Picture with only a PGA win, Globe/Comedy win and no Best Director nomination? That’s right, Driving Miss Daisy. I’ll just leave that one right there for you to think about for the next two days.

1. Roma — It won BAFTA. It won BFCA. It would have probably won the Globe for Drama had they been able to nominate it there. The PGA is the only misstep. It’s got ten nominations, is basically guaranteed a minimum of three wins. It’s been the most lauded film of the year, and really, in any other year, this would be the winner. The only knock against it is that it’s Netflix and some people don’t respect that. I see this as the favorite and the only real logical choice for the winner. Seems like it’s this or Green Book at this point. I’m comfortable calling this the favorite going into Oscar night.

– – – – – – – – – –

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2 responses

  1. For Black Panther, just being nominated is like winning honestly. They’re either going to pick Green Book or Roma.

    February 22, 2019 at 12:29 pm

  2. Pingback: The B+ Oscar Ballot: Guide to the 91st Academy Awards – Site Title

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