Oscars 2019: SAG Nominations

Well, this is early. Okay, sure, this is exactly the same time we get the SAG nominations every year. But it feels early. Mostly because I’m not gonna bother to really pay attention to this list for another month. But hey, here we are. This is it. This is all we’re gonna get, outside of BAFTA to help us with the acting categories. So, let’s just see what we’ve got, rather than try to waste time.

Here are your 2019 SAG nominees:

Best Ensemble

Bombshell
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

The only major talking point here is Parasite. That means they loved the film and they’d probably have nominated an actor or two if they could. That means, like last year, we’re in play for acting nominations on top of what seems like a for sure Best Picture nomination. PGA and BAFTA will shore that part up, but if they nominated it for Ensemble when Roma didn’t even get that… they like it. A lot. So now we have to figure out where the hell they’re gonna nominate it in the acting categories, if they do go there. Supporting Actress is weak enough that it could totally happen. Not sure who that would be (my guess would be Yeo-jeong Jo as the flighty rich wife. Not sure if they’d go So-dam Park as the sister. But also Jeong-eun Lee as the housekeeper maybe is in play? Or Hye-jin Jang as the mother. My guess is Jo is the performance that stood out the most, but I don’t know). Supporting Actor is overly stacked, so they’d have to really like it to go there. The question is what category’s they’re gonna try to fit in. The female categories are the most open, it seems, though Supporting Actress for sure is the one that could make it happen. I’d love if we got Yeo-jeong Jo on and Shuzhen Zhao on from The Farewell.

But that’s really the only part of this category anyone should really be discussing. Everything else should be pretty expected. Once Upon a Time and Irishman were locks. Bombshell makes sense, and Jojo is a fun movie with performances everyone enjoyed the hell out of. They all fit. And again, more stars wins out over true ensembles. Because this is SAG. The one thing you have to realize with SAG is — there’s like 100,000 people. It’s broad. It’s designed to be a popularity contest. So when people aren’t nominated, it’s not necessarily that they didn’t like it, it’s just that people just fucking love Margot Robbie (I’m using her as a random example, but you know what I mean) and will vote for her in anything.

Best Actor

Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

So Bale gets on, that’s interesting. I wonder if he’s got a play at this. BAFTA will tell us. BAFTA won’t suffer a performance like that lightly. If they nominate him, then they actually think it’s good. Egerton is a SAG special, and no one should be remotely surprised about that. Unless BAFTA nominates him too (and even then) I don’t think he’s nominated. De Niro being left off means nothing to me, because the rest are all more popular actors at the moment. De Niro has veteran support and should snag one of the two spots, be it Bale or Egerton. Egerton makes the most sense. I was looking for what the performance is that hits SAG and BAFTA but still gets left off this year (because there’s always one), and I think I found it with Egerton. With something like Best Actor, it’s usually about what makes the most sense as a performance. And year after year, you get the the spot that fits the best. Like last year. John David Washington hit all the big precursors, but the other option was Willem Dafoe, a beloved actor, as Vincent Van Gogh. It made sense that Dafoe would get on in a smaller field. Same here. De Niro makes the most sense. But I wanna see if BAFTA leaves him off too. If they do, then maybe we’ve got something to talk about. For now, this is just a SAG quirk.

The rest make total sense, and we should start talking about the legitimate situation where Joaquin Phoenix wins an Oscar for Joker. Because Bale and De Niro, doesn’t matter which gets on, they aren’t winning. Leo just won and I doubt he’s gonna campaign all that much for it. And Driver… does anyone think they go Driver and Scarlett? So yeah, I’m thinking Joaquin wins this one, because I’m not seeing any legitimate contender coming along that can take this from him. The Globes and BFCA are the ones that can start the train in either direction. Last year the Globes started Rami Malek. If Joaquin starts winning, there’s no stopping him in a category like this. It’s set up for him to win it. And there’s no one who can magically parachute in and become a frontrunner, so it’s basically Phoenix, Driver and Leo for the win. (Though wouldn’t it be hilarious if Bale somehow won? That would be like Jimmy Stewart winning for The Philadelphia Story the year after Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.)

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy

Zero surprises here. No Saiorse, but if you thought SAG, with that voting body, was leaving Lupita off, you’re insane. Scarlett and Renée are locked. Charlize looks like she’ll get on, though I’m not 100% sold just yet. I’m close, but not 100. BAFTA will tell me a lot. Some of these are quintessentially American roles, so I wanna see where they go with it. Saoirse, I assume, will get BAFTA and I’ll look to have her on the final list. But we’ll see.

Right now, this is Scarlett’s to lose. Unless they wanna give Zellweger her lead Oscar, which I guess theoretically could happen. We’ll see which way the Globes think it’s gonna go. Harriet is not a good movie and those performances, if they get on in the first place, tend to never do that well. Lupita won’t factor for a win because people won’t take the film seriously enough to vote for her. And Charlize will have an empty nomination where she’s gonna be strong until the category gets locked and then she’ll somehow end up, at best, a third choice. That’s how that performance goes.

So right now, it’s Renée vs. Scarlett, and Scarlett fits exactly the type of someone who’s gonna walk away with an Oscar. So we’ll see.

Best Supporting Actor

Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The same four we’ve been seeing everywhere else, and instead of Anthony Hopkins, they put on Jamie Foxx. Which is another popular vote. That movie is not getting great reviews from what I’ve been hearing and it’s gonna be out too late to really mount a push, I think. But we’ll see. If he gets on BAFTA too, I’ll take it seriously. Otherwise, I’m thinking Anthony Hopkins should be the fifth choice, unless they sneak a Parasite nominee on there or someone else jumps up out of nowhere, which hasn’t happened to this point. It’s just Willem Dafoe who got a sixth spot with the main five on BFCA, but that feels just like a BFCA and nothing else kinda nomination. Unless BAFTA goes there too, he’s not the choice. I think we’re locked with five middle-aged to old white dudes.

Also, doesn’t it seem like Brad’s gonna win an Oscar? Because that’s what it looks like to me. I might take Pesci in the end (haven’t thought about it yet or rewatched the films), but I think he and Pacino cancel each other out for the vote. I doubt Hopkins makes a rally. Hanks could, I guess, take it on the Mr. Rogers of it all alone, but Brad really looks like the frontrunner here. I guess we’ll see how things start landing.

Best Supporting Actress

Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

So I know that Kathy Bates was erroneously submitted as lead for this by Warners, so that’s why you don’t see her. Which makes this a good time to say — Bombshell’s not getting three acting nominations. Kathy Bates will be one of those spots. Dern is a lock at this point and probably even wins the category. She seems like a commanding favorite at the moment, just based on how thinks look to be playing out. Lopez… I still don’t buy it, but she’s hitting everything. Though BAFTA will tell the tale on that one. When she doesn’t hit BAFTA, then I’m gonna probably call bullshit. Because that’s not a performance that should be nominated for an Oscar and would be a popularity nomination, which they tend to not do.

Look at the three bodies who voted her on — the critics, who like the story and like selling papers (or getting clicks, since print media is basically dead) and buy into their own bullshit. The Globes, who just want her at the party. And SAG, which is so fucking gigantic that OF COURSE THEY NOMINATED HER. Fucking Oprah got nominated for The Butler. Hold your horses, guys. Let’s wait for BAFTA on that one.

Scarlett… she’s got a shot at a double nomination. I’m not sure if they will, but it’s a weak enough year that they might. I still think this category is wide open for a Parasite nominee, but I’m just not sure which it’s gonna be. And unless BAFTA nominates someone, you’re basically gonna have to guess blindly on it and hope for the best. It’s not like Roma, where you had two definitive performances to choose from in separate categories.

The things I’m gonna look out for most at BAFTA in this category specifically are if a Parasite nominee gets on (which I’m guessing won’t happen, since I feel like they have the same kind of rules that SAG has. Since Yalitza Aparicio wasn’t nominated there last year), if Scarlett gets double nominated and then if they put a Little Women nominee (probably Florence, I’m guessing) on there. The rest seem mostly shored up, save one or two little tweaks. This one still feels pretty open to me.

Best Stunt Ensemble

Avengers: Endgame
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Cool. I see at least two old school stunt movies, so that’s nice.

– – – – –

And now the TV crap, because why not.

Best Ensemble in a Drama Series

Big Little Lies
The Crown
Game of Thrones
The Handmaid’s Tale
Stranger Things

K.

I guess Game of Thrones wins just so they can send it off. Otherwise it’s Big Little Lies. Then maybe The Crown. Don’t really care either way. This is all a yawner to me.

Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series

Barry
Fleabag
The Kominsky Method
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Schitt’s Creek

K. Maisel wins, if not Fleabag. This is obvious.

Best Actor in a Drama Series

Sterling K. Brown, This Is Us
Steve Carell, The Morning Show
Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
David Harbour, Stranger Things

What? Oh, they got rid of the Supporting nominees here, didn’t they? So it’s just everyone in one? That’s kinda fucked, isn’t it?

How do you reconcile Dinklage as supporting versus… honestly I’m not even sure which of the others is considered lead. So I’m just gonna leave this one alone and let them do whatever the hell they’re gonna do.

Best Actor in a Comedy Series

Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Bill Hader, Barry
Andrew Scott, Fleabag
Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Three leads, two supporting. K.

Best Actress in a Drama Series

Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show
Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown
Olivia Colman, The Crown
Jodie Comer, Killing Eve
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale

More k.

Though this means Jen and Brad will be at the same show together.

At least 10% of the people reading these nominations had that same thought.

Best Actress in a Comedy Series

Christina Applegate, Dead to Me
Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Catherine O’Hara, Schitt’s Creek
Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Fleabag

Cool. It’s one or the other. We all know how this one turns out.

Best Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie

Mahershala Ali, True Detective
Russell Crowe, The Loudest Voice
Jared Harris, Chernobyl
Jharrel Jerome, When They See Us
Sam Rockwell, Fosse/Verdon

Cool stuff. Same category I’ve seen everywhere else. All good choices (though I’m just assuming on one of them).

Best Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie

Patricia Arquette, The Act
Toni Collette, Unbelievable
Joey King, The Act
Emily Watson, Chernobyl
Michelle Williams, Fosse/Verdon

Rooting for Michelle Williams. Don’t care about the rest.

Best Stunt Ensemble in a Series

Game of Thrones
GLOW
Stranger Things
The Walking Dead
Watchmen

Yawn.

– – – – – – – – – –

So yeah, that’s SAG. That’s your acting categories. BAFTA will give the final piece of the puzzle in a month, but this is almost all the help we’re gonna get for the Oscars. ACE also announced today, so that’ll be coming up next.

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