Oscars 2019: 77th Golden Globes Predictions
The Golden Globes are tonight. Unlike other years, I actually knew they were happening and didn’t wake up this morning and realize, “Oh shit, that’s tonight.” Usually I get texts or calls from other people and they remind me. But nope, I’m on top of my shit this year. That’s new.
I should warn you that these predictions are really only to remind me of what the categories are and prep me for what to watch out for. Namely, “Expect this film in this category, but if this one wins, it could mean that’s gonna win there, so then we look to see what wins SAG”… etc, etc. That’s really all this is for.
But hey, this is a big one. We’ll see what this means for who’s gonna start winning everything, which is fun, since WGA, DGA, PGA and BAFTA nominations are all coming in the next two days, and we’re not getting BFCA winners for another week. So for the next week, get ready for all the hot takes about what’s gonna win based solely on this.
For now, let’s see what kind of help we might get from this show tonight.
Best Picture – Drama
The Two Popes
Well this is a two (and a half) horse race.
The Two Popes would be a major surprise for all involved, and for a film that feels pretty guaranteed to not be a Best Picture nominee, I can’t see them going there. And 1917 also feels like a film destined to get 6 or 7 nominations and win practically nothing in the end. So I can’t see them going there. Wouldn’t shock me, but I just don’t see it happening.
Keep in mind — Parasite is the film that isn’t here because they can’t, which, like last year, frees them up to vote for whatever they want. Last year, Bohemian Rhapsody won this category in the absence of Roma, so whatever wins really isn’t that big a deal, but it’ll say a lot about what they liked best and what probably could have more Best Picture (nomination) support than you’d think.
To me, The Irishman makes the most sense here, but then, so does Marriage Story. I think the Joker hot takes are gonna come fast and furious up until it loses. And then even more so if it wins. I’d say it has a half a shot, but the fact that it’s comic book and knowing their tastes in general makes me feel like it won’t win. The people voting are not the people making the noise online about it.
I wouldn’t be shocked if they went there in the absence of Parasite, but for me, the obvious conclusion is that The Irishman goes in the favorite and Marriage Story goes in second choice. I’m not surprised if either wins. Joker is a third choice that could happen but feels unlikely to me. And the other two actually would surprise me if they came out on top.
I feel this part is worth noting, though there’s a caveat to it. Which means a caveat of a caveat, I think. I don’t know, I’m just making this shit up as I go along.
I went back 25 years and looked at all the Best Picture (Drama) winners. And I noticed that all but one time, the film that won that category was also nominated in Best Director. And you know what the one time was? Last year. Bryan Singer not being nominated for Bohemian Rhapsody. Which could be for… outside reasons, and also could just be because Roma was ineligible for that category and clearly would have won if it were.
So, based on that fact alone, that means the films most likely to win this are Irishman, Joker and 1917, as Scorsese, Phillips and Mendes are the only three in the Director list in this category. Bong Joon Ho is the phantom fourth, and Quentin is nominated there and his film is in Musical/Comedy. So if you’re handicapping this one, 1917 theoretically has better odds than Marriage Story. But to me, Marriage Story makes more sense as a choice from them. And the caveat I was talking about is the thing from last year — if it wins and he’s not nominated, we’ve got that asterisk of, “Well, they would have chosen Parasite if they could.”
That’s it, that’s the point, really. The history favors either Irishman, Joker or 1917 winning this category, and I think we all figure Irishman to be the probable favorite there. But my gut is telling me Marriage Story has a chance, for some odd reason, and is the second most likely winner. But we’ll see.
Oh, and for anyone who really cares (like I did), I went back even further. in the entire history of the Golden Globes, only twice has the Best Picture (Drama) winner not been nominated for Best Director. It happened three other times (1946, 1953 and 1955) technically, but in all three of those instances, the Globes just announced winners and not nominees. So we don’t know for sure if the were nominated or not in the category. But in terms of years where the winner was not nominated in a category with nominees, it’s only happened twice, ever. Once was last year, and the other was 1992, with Martin Brest not being nominated for Scent of a Woman and that film winning Best Picture (Drama). So there you go. There’s your fun fact for today.
I still think Irishman takes this, and if it doesn’t Marriage Story wins instead. Also keep in mind, they love Marty here, so I can’t see why they wouldn’t rush to give him something, either in Picture or Director. He’s won the Director category three times (all in the past 20 years, too).
Best Picture – Musical/Comedy
Dolemite Is My Name
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Considering Quentin is nominated for Best Director, I’m gonna go out on a very short limb and say he wins this category.
I’m not going back to see how many times someone was nominated for Best Director and lost this category to a non-Director nominee. It doesn’t matter enough for me to do that. (Four times.)
(Okay, so since the work was done here are the four times: 1995, Rob Reiner was nominated for Director for The American President but lost this category to Babe. 1991, Terry Gilliam was nominated for The Fisher King but the film lost this category to Beauty and the Beast. 1989, Rob Reiner again, nominated for When Harry Met Sally but lost this category to Driving Miss Daisy. And 1977, Woody Allen nominated for Annie Hall but the film lost to The Goodbye Girl.)
Basically all signs point to Once Upon a Time winning this category. If not, honestly I’m thinking the only other possibility is Rocketman, because Elton will be there. Though they could just as easily give him Song and that’ll be the win. Honestly, I’m thinking nobody can win this but Quentin. It’s nominated up and down the categories. Why would they go against it here?
Rocketman is second choice, I think, and then take your pick after that. It’s all a surprise past the second choice. It’ll be a fine winner either way (except Rocketman, which would be a quintessential ‘Globes’ choice), but anything past the first two and I have no idea how they got there.
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
This is where it gets interesting. Marty’s won three times. Does this make it four? Does Quentin win his first? He’s been nominated for Pulp Fiction, Basterds and Django and lost all three. Is this the year? Do they go all in on Joker? I don’t see that happening, but it’s possible. It would be weird for me to see Phillips winning this and losing Picture, so that’s why I’m calling it ‘all in’. It would make zero sense for him to win Director and the film not win otherwise. Sam Mendes feels like a fifth choice in the category, which is hilarious considering he made a war movie told entirely in a single take.
Bong Joon Ho is the wild card here. Could he win this? Sure. Easily. Am I expecting it? Little bit. If this goes like last year, he wins and then wins Screenplay, then we’re looking at a Roma situation. If he loses here and then wins Screenplay, then I’m thinking they’d just have nominated Parasite in Picture and went with their preferred choice. Either way, Parasite’s Picture nomination chances can only go up from here. Nothing can diminish them based on the choices. I’m just telling you how I’ll see the eventual winner of this category based on whatever they choose to do.
I would say, top three choices are: Marty first, assuming Irishman is gonna win it all, Bong Joon Ho second, and then Quentin third. They’re all pretty close, and I can see them all winning. However, keep in mind that Bong Joon Ho and Quentin are also going head-to-head in Screenplay, so that could lead to some weird vote splitting situation or whatever. Or maybe they just go all in on one person. Phillips would be a surprise for a minute but not shocking unless Joker doesn’t win Picture, and then Mendes would be an interesting choice and surprising if only considering the other options. And that would tell me a lot about how they see things going in the future.
My gut tells me Quentin is least likely to win this because he’s more likely to win Screenplay (which he’s won twice already). So I’m thinking it’s most likely either Marty or Bong Joon Ho. That’s what makes the most sense.
Best Actor – Drama
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Well, the Globes like to be the ones to forecast acting categories, so this is the big first test. Last year, they started the Rami Malek train. And every Best Actor winner going back to 2012 has win this corresponding category. 2011, the winner came from Musical/Comedy. The last time they didn’t have a Best Actor winner right was 2008, where they went with Mickey Rourke over Sean Penn, which is probably the (legitimately) closest Best Actor category in recent memory. Otherwise, they’ve had the Best Actor every year going back to 2002 (at which point they had gotten five wrong in a row, 1998-2002).
So basically what I’m getting at is, the Best Actor train starts here, and whoever wins this has the inside track, unless the winner comes out of Musical/Comedy, which we’ll get to in a minute.
All the SAG nominees are on this list, three of them in this category. Which basically means, Jonathan Pryce and Antonio Banderas, I’m sorry but you’re probably not winning this. Pryce feels like a Globes nomination that’ll never come in, and Banderas feels like it’s because they like him and because Musical/Comedy is stacked. (And also because De Niro refuses to talk to them, so they weren’t nominating him.) Oh, and BFCA had Banderas, Driver and Joaquin (the rest either weren’t nominated or went Musical/Comedy).
The three favorites are Bale, Driver and Phoenix, and I think we’d all be pretty surprised if Bale managed to win this. That would be two years of wins in a row for him (likely en route to two Oscar losses in a row, but that’s a different story).
Joaquin makes the most sense as a favorite, with Driver a very strong alternate. It would be rare to see them double up on the film, though, which is why I assume it’s all Joaquin. I’m thinking Scarlett wins Actress and Driver just gets the nomination to show for it. But, if Driver wins this, that only bolsters my prediction that Marriage Story is a legitimate contender for the Picture win.
It’s Joaquin or Driver. I’m only surprised if it’s someone else, which would mean Bale. Because I can’t imagine Pryce or Banderas actually wins this, but I guess you never know. I’m expecting to see Joaquin, and seeing Driver win would lead to some interesting possibilities for the rest of the night, since I’m assuming they’ll give this one out first of the three big ones (this, Actress and Picture).
Though also, keep in mind… if they push this category later, it’s because they know it’s gonna double up like last year. Last year Malek and Bohemian Rhapsody won back-to-back at the end of the night.
Best Actor – Musical/Comedy
Daniel Craig, Knives Out
Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
5/5 match between Picture and Actor. That feels rare.
This is Leo’s category to lose, but Egerton could also win if they really think he’s got a shot at winning Actor. If they go off the board with one of the other three, then that means they’re doubling down on their Drama choice as the eventual Best Actor winner. Craig and Davis don’t have a shot at being nominated at the Oscars and Murphy has a very long and outside (but unlikely) chance.
So Leo or Egerton will win this, and I have to assume Leo’s the favorite, but it’s the Globes, they do crazy shit all the time. In the real world, Egerton would be a fourth choice at best in this category.
Best Actress – Drama
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy
Harriet is not going to happen. I’m not even going to start getting into the reasons for that, but… I know the HFPA… they’re not voting for that performance. Little Women got left off every other category before this, so the vote’s because they like Saoirse and nothing else. She’s not winning, as awesome as she is. This is the first of the Bombshell nominations, so I’m not thinking Charlize stands much of a chance here. But the Best Actress race is kind of wide open, even if the same people keep getting nominated, so whoever wins this will take a huge step forward for winning the whole thing.
In the past 50 Golden Globe ceremonies (that’s right, I went back that far because I couldn’t believe how accurate it was) the Best Actress winner has won (in either the Drama or Musical/Comedy category) all but EIGHT times. The ninth time is Kate Winslet winning Best Actress for the wrong film, but the Globes gave her the Supporting Actress win for that film at the same ceremony, so I think we’re gonna call that one right.
They missed (and their winner in parentheses): Halle Berry in ’01 (Sissy Spacek), Frances McDormand in ’96 (Madonna), Susan Sarandon in ’95 (Sharon Stone), Geraldine Page in ’85 (Whoopi Goldberg), Katharine Hepburn in ’81 (Meryl), Ellen Burstyn in ’74 (Gena Rowlands), Glenda Jackson in ’70 (Ali MacGraw) and Maggie Smith in ’69 (Genevieve Bujold). So that’s 8 times in 50 years, and only three times in the SAG era. And, to further that one… SAG got all three of those ones right (Halle, Frances and Susan). Point is, they haven’t missed a Best Actress winner in 18 years, and it’s only happened once in the past twenty.
But anyway, it feels like it’s clearly between Scarlett and Renée. And does anyone really think Renée is gonna win this? Scarlett fits the Globes model exactly. And seeing as how the winner of this is likely to be ‘the’ favorite for the Oscar, considering there’s really no one guaranteed to be nominated in the Musical/Comedy category (only one is even in general contention), Scarlett makes the most sense to me.
Scarlett is the big favorite, Renée is the second choice, and everyone else would be a big surprise to me and really make me pay more attention to what SAG and BFCA do.
Best Actress – Musical/Comedy
Ana de Armas, Knives Out
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Cate Blanchett, Where’d You Go, Bernadette
Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart
Emma Thompson, Late Night
This category is basically irrelevant this year, like that year when the Best Picture/Comedy list had The Tourist and Burlesque on it. No one paid attention to it. Though admittedly, two of my favorite performances of the year are on this list and I can’t say that more than once on the Drama list. So there’s that.
Just trying to figure out what they’re gonna do — I went back to see how many times someone won Best Actress for Musical/Comedy when their film wasn’t nominated for Best Picture. I disregarded years when none of the nominees’ films were nominated when doing this. And I came up with 13 times ever. ‘Ever’ with the caveats of having nominees in the categories, etc. You know what I mean.
Here are the 13 times someone won Best Actress Musical/Comedy without their film being nominated for Best Picture Musical/Comedy while beating someone whose film was nominated:
- 2014, Amy Adams wins for Big Eyes, beating Emily Blunt for the nominated Into the Woods
- 2007, Marion Cotillard wins for La Vie en Rose, beating Ellen Page and Helena Bonham Carter for the nominated Juno and Sweeney Todd
- 2004, Annette Bening wins for Being Julia, beating Kate Winslet and Emmy Rossum for the nominated Eternal Sunshine and Phantom of the Opera
- 2003, Diane Keaton wins for Something’s Gotta Give, beating Scarlett Johansson for the nominated Lost in Translation
- 2000, Renée Zellweger wins for Nurse Betty, beating Juliette Binoche in the nominated Chocolat
- 1999, Janet McTeer wins for Tumbleweeds, beating Julia Roberts in the nominated Notting Hill
- 1995, Nicole Kidman wins for To Die For, beating Annette Bening in the nominated American President
- 1994, Jamie Lee Curtis wins for True Lies, beating Andie MacDowell in the nominated Four Weddings and a Funeral
- 1993, Angela Bassett wins for What’s Love Got to Do with It, beating Meg Ryan in the nominated Sleepless in Seattle
- 1991, Bette Midler wins for For the Boys, beating Kathy Bates in the nominated Fried Green Tomatoes.
- 1983, Julie Walters wins for Educating Rita, beating Barbra Streisand and Jennifer Beals in the nominated Yentl and Flashdance
- 1969, Patty Duke wins for Me, Natalie, beating Anna Magnani, Ingrid Bergman and Barbara Streisand in the nominated Secret of Santa Vittoria, Cactus Flower and Hello, Dolly.
- 1966, Lynn Redgrave wins for Georgy Girl, beating Geraldine Page and Shirley MacLaine in the nominated You’re a Big Boy Now and Gambit.
I’ve done one more further look-up, just to see. In 2014, Big Eyes was nominated for three awards and just happened to miss in Picture. So it was represented elsewhere. 2007, La Vie en Rose was a case of category fraud, and everyone knew it was Cotillard vs. Christie, so that’s not surprising at all that she won and it wasn’t nominated elsewhere. 2004, Bening was a serious Best Actress contender (they pretended like it was her vs. Hilary Swank, round two, which is probably what propelled her to that win) and Winslet never really had a shot. Something’s Gotta Give was nominated elsewhere and Keaton was the de facto ‘second choice’, so I get that. Also, keep in mind, none of these films outside of maybe Big Eyes belonged in the Picture list. Nurse Betty I’m not sure about other than they loved Renée Zellweger or really thought Chocolat was category fraud (because Harvey did his thing to get it on. It won nothing that year). McTeer was the only Best Actress contender on that list, so I get that one. To Die For wasn’t nominated elsewhere and American President was, so I guess they just really loved Nicole Kidman in that movie. True Lies was not nominated elsewhere either, while Four Weddings famously won with Hugh Grant and ended up with a real Best Picture nomination. So that’s interesting. Bassett ended up being nominated for Actress, so I get that one. Same for Bette Midler in ’91. For the Boys did get a Score nomination that year. What’s Love Got to Do with It didn’t even get the Fishburne nomination at the Globes. Educating Rita was nominated four times, once in Foreign Film, so the Picture snub is meaningless. Don’t really care about the ’60s ones either, but Lynn Redgrave was nominated for Best Actress that year.
So really what I’m seeing is — if your film is nominated for Picture, you’re much more likely to win here. Otherwise they just go with who they really like. So that means on paper, Ana de Armas is the favorite to win this. I can’t see Cate Blanchett suddenly winning, but they do like her, so anything’s possible. The Farewell is nominated for Foreign Film, so Awkwafina also seems like a favorite as well. Plus she’s the one most likely to actually get nominated for Best Actress. So logic says it’s one or the other. Beanie Feldstein I guess could get it, but in other years she’d be the one I’d randomly guess to win as a curveball and it would never happen. And Emma Thompson… I mean, I guess, but do we know that anyone voting even saw that movie?
It’s gotta be de Armas or Awkwafina. Anything past that is an, “Okay, sure” choice. But it’s gotta be one or the other there.
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
This is definitely one of the older Supporting Actor categories I’ve seen in a while. Though it has been pretty much the consensus category all the way throughout the process. Jamie Foxx got on SAG, but I’m thinking BAFTA will have Anthony Hopkins and we’ll be looking at this as the final Oscar category. I don’t really see anyone else, save maybe a long shot Willem Dafoe (who would need a BAFTA nomination and a lot of help) jumping up and getting in (unless they’re going all in on Parasite, which does not feel like it’s gonna happen in this acting category, of any of them.
Looking back, the Globes had the Best Supporting Actor winner right in 15 of the past 20 years. The only one that was blatantly wrong was 2016, where Aaron Taylor-Johnson won and then wasn’t even nominated for the Oscar (Mahershala Ali was nominated, though, and was the big consensus winner that year). Otherwise, 2015, they picked Sly over Mark Rylance. SAG and BAFTA had Rylance and he was, on paper, the clear choice. 2006, they had Eddie Murphy winning and Alan Arkin wasn’t even nominated. On paper, that’s one of the biggest upsets ever, so no shame there. 2004, they had Clive Owen over Morgan Freeman. Freeman won SAG and Owen won BAFTA, so that’s an even split and makes sense. And 1999, they had Tom Cruise over Michael Caine. That year, the wins were all over the map, but Caine did win SAG.
Point is, they’re usually right, and when they’re not, SAG and everything else is gonna have it. Everyone here but Hopkins is on SAG, and looking at the category, the Globes should start one train’s road all the way to the Oscars.
Pacino has 10 Globe nominations for Best Actor (Drama), plus another two in Musical/Comedy and three more (including this one) in Supporting Actor. They love him here. But he’s only won twice, once for Serpico and once for Scent of a Woman. Pesci’s been nominated here every time he’s gotten the Oscar nomination and has never won the Globe. He’s also famously not a talker, so I’m not thinking they go there unless they’re really sold on the performance. Hopkins would be a surprising choice, since I don’t think anyone thinks he really has a shot at the Oscar win. And he’s never won a Globe, surprisingly. Hanks, meanwhile, has been nominated seven times and won four times, three in Drama one in Musical/Comedy. This is his first Supporting nomination. And Pitt, he’s been nominated three times in Actor/Drama, lost all three, and was nominated twice before in Supporting Actor, and he won for Twelve Monkeys.
Looking at this category, I can’t see Hopkins factoring in and I feel like Pacino and Pesci cancel each other out. Pesci gives the better performance but they like Pacino more. That’s a split, to me. Which leaves Hanks and Pitt. And Quentin’s got a history of Supporting wins in recent years, getting Christoph Waltz up there twice. I also don’t know how much Mr. Rogers means outside of America. So my gut’s telling me this is all Brad. Brad wins, and probably wins the Oscar, too.
I should also point out, even though it doesn’t feel like all the others… but there is that statistic that every time Leo gets nominated as Best Actor, his supporting actor gets nominated alongside him. That’s gonna happen again with this one. That’s crazy.
But yeah, this should be an easy Pitt win, and Hanks feels like a second choice. Because I think they’re gonna try to guess the actual winner here, and those two feel like the most likely winners. I don’t feel a strong push for either Pacino or Pesci. And Hopkins is just there to be nominated. If it’s not Pitt or Hanks, then I’ll be real interested to see who it is, because something tells me they might go Al, even though Joe feels like the better option.
Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Annette Bening, The Report
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Everyone’s just gonna assume J-Lo wins this, right? Because she could. Some of these are straight blanks. But to me, this one’s all about Laura Dern. She’s probably gonna win that Oscar this year, if the category is remotely as weak as this one is.
I really need to see what BAFTA does with their nominations, because this one’s shaping up to have some holes in it for me. And when there are holes in it, recent history has told me… foreign nominee. Last year is the big indicator of that one. So this is where a Parasite nominee is gonna come from, methinks. But unless BAFTA goes out and does it (I’m not sure about their nomination process, if you have to be a member like SAG. I’m assuming so, which means we’re likely just gonna be picking blind in the end).
It’s interesting that Scarlett Johansson wasn’t double-dipped here, which leads me to believe they deliberately left her off to make sure people only vote for her in Best Actress. That’s the only way to explain it. This is the most corrupt of the voting bodies, and I 100% believe that they did that. Because there’s no way you’re telling me HFPA actually watched The Report. It’s a quintessentially American movie and Annette Bening is playing an American senator. They left Scarlett off deliberately and they put Annette Bening on, sight unseen, because they love Annette Bening.
But anyway, Bening has no shot at this unless they’re throwing out any shot of getting it right. Which, actually, let’s look into that now…
The Globes have gotten Best Supporting Actress right only 13 times in the past 20 years. However, there are a lot of asterisks in those seven misses.
- 2015, Kate Winslet won for Steve Jobs, but Alicia Vikander, who won the Oscar for The Danish Girl, was nominated for Best Actress in a Drama for that movie at the Globes and then nominated for Supporting Actress for Ex Machina. Funny that it was Kate Winslet who beat her, since she’s about to come up in a second for something similar.
- 2013, Jennifer Lawrence won for American Hustle over Lupita Nyong’o. That one’s a straight ‘got it wrong’, and I’m thinking it’s because they just loved Jennifer Lawrence so much.
- 2008, Kate Winslet wins for The Reader, for which she won Best Actress at the Oscars. So wrong/not wrong. At least the Supporting winner, Penelope Cruz, was also nominated here.
- 2007, Cate Blanchett wins for I’m Not There over Tilda Swinton. Straight up wrong.
- 2004, Natalie Portman wins for Closer over Cate Blanchett. Straight up wrong.
- 2002, Meryl wins for Adaptation, because Catherine Zeta-Jones was nominated for Best Actress and lost to Renée Zellweger for the same film.
- 2000, Kate Hudson wins for Almost Famous, and that’s the year where eventual Oscar winner Marcia Gay Harden was not nominated for any precursor whatsoever. Still one of the strangest outcomes in the history of the Oscars.
So, looking at that, outside of some category quirks, they were really only straight up wrong 3 times. Four if you wanna say they could have voted for Vikander for the other movie if they wanted to. Important to note, in all those years, including the quirky ones, SAG got it right in 2002, 2004, 2013 and 2015, while also having Kate Winslet in 2008 in the wrong category. Harden, like I said, was not nominated anywhere and SAG was straight up wrong in ’07. BAFTA, meanwhile, also wrong in 2000 like everyone else, got it right in 2002, 2004, 2007 and 2008, while being wrong in 2013 with Jennifer Lawrence and 2015 with Vikander, because Vikander also did the Actress/Supporting Actress thing, being nominated in both but the Oscar-winning performance was in lead and lost to Brie Larson.
Really what this is telling me is that they’re pretty fucking good at this, by and large. And if not, the other precursors are gonna tell you who’s really gonna win.
Now, all that is telling me that, sans actual Oscar nominations, I’m taking the person who I think is locked and loaded to win the whole thing. And that’s Laura Dern. I’m not 100% sold that Jennifer Lopez even gets nominated. If BAFTA nominates her, then I’ll put her on my list and expect to see her until something else happens. If BAFTA doesn’t nominate her, then I’m looking at three votes that are basically popularity contests in some way, shape or form. Though, in a year like this, popularity contests might win out just because the category looks so weak to begin with. BAFTA is gonna mean a lot with this one.
To give you an idea: BFCA has Dern, J-Lo and Margot on their list. They also have Zhao Shuzhen from The Farewell (who I’m guessing is not in SAG, hint hint), Scarlett for Jojo and Florence Pugh for Little Women. And SAG has Dern, J-Lo and Margot as well, while also having Scarlett for Jojo and Nicole Kidman for Bombshell. Which totally fits what SAG would do. So now, I wanna see where BAFTA goes.
Since I won’t have a chance to talk about this before they announce on Tuesday, my gut tells me that BAFTA goes Laura Dern, Margot, Florence, Scarlett (they might not double dip on her, but there’s so little that I think they will) and one more. Typically BAFTA will have a quintessentially ‘British’ performer in a British film on their acting list. A Downton nominee, something like that. I’m not totally sold we’re gonna see the foreign nominee on there, but I guess we could. Mostly what I want to see out of them is if they go for either J-Lo or Kathy Bates. No J-Lo on that list means I’m not guessing her as a nominee. And no Kathy makes things really interesting, since she still feels like she could get on in a weak year.
But anyway, we’re looking at this. Scarlett’s not here. Annette Bening is a total blank and will never win. Which means your winner is among four people: Kathy Bates, Margot Robbie, Jennifer Lopez and Laura Dern. Which of those four feels like they’re gonna win an Oscar? I’ll give you a hint, only one of them was liked enough to get nominated in this same category in a role that has about ten minutes of total screen time. Remember that in 2014? You know they love them some Laura Dern.
Kathy Bates winning would be a hell of a pull from them, and maybe they go there. That doesn’t feel like the HFPA that I know. And then Margot — they love her. But are they gonna put all their eggs in that basket? Or are they nominating her because they like her and want her to show up? I’m thinking it’s that. Maybe she wins. But I’m not sure she wins any of the other categories if she wins here. So really, it’s Jennifer Lopez or Laura Dern. I can see either winning. But I can see Laura Dern winning more. So while it’s probably a toss-up, I’m going for the one that I feel is more likely to take down the whole thing. But we’ll see. This is their popularity contest, and I know everyone’s just gonna assume J-Lo on this. So we’ll see if they go along with the popularity vote or actually try to call their shot.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Two Popes
This is a pretty meaningless category when it comes to the Oscars, but we can still try to pick it.
There have been some pretty eclectic winners over the past couple of years. Green Book won last year and won the Oscar. Three Billboards won before that. La La Land won before that. Steve Jobs before that, Birdman before that, Her before that, Django before that, Midnight in Paris before that and The Social Network before that.
A Quentin win, two Sorkin wins, a Woody Allen win, a McDonagh win, and then Spike Jonze, Birdman/Inarritu, La La Land/Chazelle and Green Book. I don’t know what the hell that means.
I assume we’re all figuring Parasite to win this, especially if they’re all in on it winning Picture without winning Picture. Maybe that’s where they go. I, personally, am gonna look at Quentin here. I can see Quentin winning Screenplay very easily. Baumbach could also win. Basically, whatever wins should put the puzzle together on what their overall feelings are.
No one expects The Two Popes to win. If that wins, then we’re all just kind of shrugging and moving along. But apart from that — Irishman wins, and they’re all in on that movie. It doesn’t win this without winning Picture and/or Marty. Not a chance. Marriage Story — it could win here, though Baumbach’s never really been nominated before. Not sure if they like it like that. But if it wins here, then you could see it win acting awards and then Picture too. Or it wins here and that’s it. Quentin… I feel like Quentin gets this as a substitute for not winning Director and losing to either Bong Joon Ho or Marty. And Parasite could win both or win neither. Hard to tell. It’s going to win Foreign Film, so there’s that. Not sure how pressured they’re gonna feel to give it anything else.
My gut says Quentin is the favorite, Parasite is second choice, Baumbach is a very solid third choice, with Irishman a minor surprise (mostly in that it would then be a sweep vote) and Two Popes being a surprise as a winner but a pretty boring choice that no one would care about and would mean very little (since even if it’s nominated, it’s not winning the Oscar).
They always go pretty off the board in this category with their choices. They’re the only voting body that’s nominated some of my favorite scores over the past 15 years. They nominated 25th Hour, The Fountain, Cloud Atlas, All Is Lost (which won!) — they’ve been pretty cool when it comes to scores. First Man won last year, even, and the Oscars totally ignored that one.
Looking at the composers — Thomas Newman is 1917, Randy Newman is Marriage Story, Alexandre Desplat is Little Women, Hildur Guðnadóttir is Joker and Daniel Pemberton is Motherless Brooklyn.
This is only Thomas Newman’s second Globe nomination, the first being for American Beauty (which he lost). Randy, meanwhile, has only been nominated three times for Score, including this one. The first two were Avalon and A Bug’s Life. This is Alexandre Desplat’s eleventh Globe nomination, all coming between 2003 and the present. He won in 2006 for The Painted Veil and again in 2017 for The Shape of Water. Hildur, meanwhile, is a first-timer for them. And Pemberton was nominated for Steve Jobs in 2015.
They’re very eclectic with their score tastes. And I can see them really going in any direction for this. Most people assume Joker is gonna win, but for me, this is either Motherless Brooklyn or Little Women. I just assume Desplat sweeps everything, but that’s because I love him and it feels like the kind of score that would win everything. I admittedly am only just now starting to listen to scores, so I haven’t quite picked my favorites just yet.
I should also point out that all five of these are on the Oscar shortlist for Score, so theoretically they could all be nominated (even though that’s never going to happen, since there is no way in blue hell that John Williams isn’t getting nominated for Star Wars).
But yeah, best guess is that Desplat wins. If not, it’ll either be Pemberton or Joker. Pemberton just feels like the kind of random choice that would win this category. Though admittedly, that’s also me just saying that. I’d honestly, if I were handicapping this, consider Joker a second choice and may even consider 1917 a third choice. I still think you gotta figure Desplat as the favorite, as much as this category could go in any different direction.
Best Original Song
“Beautiful Ghosts,” from Cats
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” from Rocketman
“Into the Unknown,” from Frozen II
“Spirit,” from The Lion King
“Stand Up,” from Harriet
Oh boy, the popularity contest. This means absolutely nothing for the Oscars, just FYI.
Four of these five are shortlisted for the final category, with only Taylor Swift getting ignored.
I assume they don’t go there, just because Cats is gonna be ridiculed by Ricky Gervais all night and there’s no way they’d lob that one right up there for him afterward.
50/50 as to whether or not Beyoncé is even in attendance, so I’m not sure they care enough to go there. The Harriet song… they’re just not gonna go there, I promise you.
It’s either Frozen winning again, or, the more likely choice, Elton winning and getting his big standing ovation. Dude wrote a song for a film about himself, which is also nominated in the big categories. Why would they not go there?
Elton or Frozen, that’s safe choice. If they want to be masochists, then they’ll vote for Taylor, but I don’t think they will.
Best Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
The Lion King
Toy Story 4
I kinda hope Lion King wins just to really make everyone wonder what the hell is gonna happen at the Oscars.
But, Dragon 2 won here in 2014, Frozen won here, Toy Story 3 won here. Laika has never won here.
Historically, the Globes are 10/13 in this category, but really you just have to guess Disney or Pixar almost every time and you’re gonna have that kind of percentage. Here you have Disney/Pixar three times. So good luck with that shit, guys.
The question to me is whether they go Frozen or Toy Story, because Lion King isn’t gonna be up for it and Missing Link and Dragon have zero chance at actually winning the award. Something tells me they’re gonna go Frozen even though Toy Story is the better of the two films. But either way, one of the two is gonna win it or else the winner is totally meaningless.
Rooting like hell for a Lion King win, though. That would be hilarious.
Best Foreign Language Film
Pain and Glory
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Good choices all around. Parasite is winning this.
The Farewell is a distant second, and it might as well be that nothing else exists, though Pain and Glory at least got another nomination.
Still, we all know which one is winning this.
– – – – – –
And now for the TV!
Now’s where I start randomly guessing because I’ve seen nothing, don’t know half of it and really could not give any less of a shit about any of it.
Best TV Series – Drama
Big Little Lies
The Morning Show
I assume Succession is the show du jour, so that’s the favorite.
The Crown or Big Little Lies could be a second choice, more so the former. Killing Eve is acting only, and The Morning Show feels like they don’t really care about it past having the cast at the show.
Succession or The Crown. Sir Indifference has spoken.
Best TV Series – Musical/Comedy
The Kominsky Method
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Fleabag or Maisel. I think we all understand this.
Though they do love the random newcomer, so based on that alone, The Politician could win. Because random shit wins somewhere. Usually in Musical/Comedy, be it series or an actor. Kominsky Method won this last year, which was insane, but I assume the big two take this. Fleabag is almost too big to ignore for them.
Best Actor in a TV Series – Drama
Brian Cox, Succession
Kit Harrington, Game of Thrones
Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
Tobias Menzies, The Crown
Billy Porter, Pose
It’s Billy Porter, right? Isn’t that the one who we assume will win everything? Menzies won’t win unless they want people to turn off their TVs. Harrington has zero chance. Cox won’t win unless they really love the show, just because he won’t give a great speech. Malek has a shot because he won last year, though.
I think Porter, then Malek, then Cox on a sweep vote.
Best Actor in a TV Series – Musical/Comedy
Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Bill Hader, Barry
Ben Platt, The Politician
Paul Rudd, Living with Yourself
Ramy Youssef, Ramy
Douglas won this last year, and there’s a pretty good chance he wins again. Not sure they even know who Ramy Youssef is enough to actually vote for him, and Hader seems to be 0-fer in this category. So unless they’re going double-in on The Politician or Paul Rudd wins, then I’m looking at Douglas two years running.
Douglas then Rudd or Platt.
Best Actress in a TV Series – Drama
Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show
Olivia Colman, The Crown
Jodie Comer, Killing Eve
Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies
Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show
How do you pick between Jen and Reese? I assume because it’s supposed to be Jen’s show she’s the most likely?
How can you not give it to Olivia Colman after last year?
Or Jodie Comer, I guess. Since I know people love Killing Eve and she just won something else.
Kidman feels like an afterthought, but maybe?
I’m thinking Colman, then Jen, then Comer.
Best Actress in a TV Series – Musical/Comedy
Christina Applegate, Dead to Me
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Kirsten Dunst, On Becoming a God in Central Florida
Natasha Lyonne, Russian Doll
Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Fleabag
It’s the same two as the big one — Phoebe or Rachel. (If only there were a Monica nominated.)
Russian Doll didn’t get the big nomination, so I’m not sure how much they’d care to vote for Natasha Lyonne, though she does feel like a third choice, since as much as I feel like they like Kirsten Dunst, I don’t think anyone’s actually watched that show. Or even knows what the Christina Applegate show is.
I think it’s clearly Phoebe Waller-Bridge and then Brosnahan here. They’re gonna wanna get Phoebe up there at least once.
Best Limited Series or TV Movie
The Loudest Voice
Chernobyl feels like the winner if only because it’s foreign-oriented. I’d love to see them go Fosse/Verdon, but I don’t know if they will. Unbelievable feels like a boring choice, Catch-22 is only there to get George there and Loudest Voice is a yawner.
Chernobyl will win, even though I’m rooting like hell for Fosse/Verdon.
Best Actor in a Limited Series or TV Movie
Christopher Abbott, Catch-22
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Spy
Russell Crowe, The Loudest Voice
Jared Harris, Chernobyl
Sam Rockwell, Fosse/Verdon
They love Sacha Baron Cohen, so I’d never rule that one out.
Maybe it’s Crowe on the performance, but I think they’d feel okay being able to drink with him without feeling pressured to vote for him. Abbott won’t win. Harris feels like the favorite, and who doesn’t love Rockwell.
Actually, you know what? I think this is Cohen or Rockwell, with Harris a solid contender but not the favorite, since I think it’s more of a popularity contest than one would realize.
Best Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie
Kaitlyn Dever, Unbelievable
Joey King, The Act
Helen Mirren, Catherine the Great
Merritt Weaver, Unbelievable
Michelle Williams, Fosse/Verdon
How is this not Michelle Williams? Dever is there to get the Booksmart table filled out. Joey King won’t win. Helen Mirren is there because she’s Helen Mirren. She could win, but only because of that and not because they actually saw it. And Merritt Weaver I’m guessing is more of a supporting character they just nominated.
It’s Michelle Williams and then Helen Mirren, I’m thinking. Michelle should have it easily. Though knowing them, watch it be Merritt Weaver. They’re weird like that.
Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Limited Series or TV Movie
Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Andrew Scott, Fleabag
Stellan Skarsgard, Chernobyl
Henry Winkler, Barry
Will they pass up the hot priest? I’m thinking no. But Arkin won last year, so it’s one or the other. Maybe they’re all in on Succession though, and Kieran Culkin wins this. Doubt it’s Skarsgard and Winkler’s been up so many times and never won I can’t see that just happening out of nowhere. Even though it would be cool.
Thinking Scott or Arkin. Feels like Scott, since Arkin won this last year.
Best Supporting Actress in a Series, Limited Series or TV Movie
Patricia Arquette, The Act
Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown
Toni Collette, Unbelievable
Meryl Streep, Big Little Lies
Emily Watson, Chernobyl
Doesn’t really matter, though something tells me it’s not Meryl. This is only her third TV nomination at the Globes. She won for Angels in America and lost in 1997 to Alfre Woodard. She’s got 8 wins though in the past 40 years, so you can never rule her out. I feel like Helena Bonham Carter is the choice, based on nothing. Though they love Patricia Arquette, and she always seems to win when she’s nominated.
Honestly, don’t really care, and I’m just happy to be done with all the TV shit.
– – – – –
Show’s on in three-and-a-half hours. We’ll get some answers then and I’ll be back tomorrow to talk about what this all means for the Oscars. Happy drinking, folks.
– – – – – – – – –