Oscars 2019: BAFTA Nominations

Alrighty, then. He said, quoting Ace Ventura, a quintessentially British film.

It’s BAFTA morning, people. It’s bright and midday in the UK and the BAFTA nominations are out. This is the final piece to a lot of the category nominations. And the rest are also coming today, because apparently only WGA announced yesterday, which means that we’re getting PGA, DGA and VES nominations today, which means that literally every piece of help we’re going to get is gonna be in our greasy little mitts by the end of the day, and we will have exactly one week to figure out what gets nominated from there.

Okay, then, let’s get into nominations before I quote more Jim Carrey movies (somebody stop me).

Here are your BAFTA nominations:

Best Film

1917
The Irishman
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

No big surprises. These five are turning out to be the consensus top five across the board. Should make our Best Picture lives much easier. 1917 is the British film they’re gonna go all in on, so that’ll make seeing what wins across the board interesting.

Mostly what I’m interested in is how the second half of ballots are gonna look. If stuff like Jojo and Knives Out and Little Women and even Ford v Ferrari stand a chance. That’ll be PGA and DGA questions later today.

But otherwise, no surprises here. I’m happy to not see Marriage Story, which puts that about where I would have expected it to go… probably a Picture nomination, Screenplay, three acting nominations and then maybe Score. That feels about right. And then it wins Laura Dern and nothing else. Figuring out this stuff this early is like dealing with the NFL Draft. It’s all just noise and smokescreens and you have to figure out what’s actually gonna happen based on logic and experience. This is why I refuse to think about this stuff before mid-December. There’s too much nonsense out there.

Though also, we’re again at least six films deep on almost guaranteed Best Picture nominations based on the precursors. PGA will further steer us, but hey, can’t ask for more than that.

In terms of this category, I’ll be interested to see what wins. I really wonder if 1917 has a chance at sneaking in with some legitimate wins when all is said and done. There’s a lot of narratives that play out on this list. So I’m not quite ready to choose a winner just yet, even though I suspect Irishman and Joker are the two that stand the least amount of a shot with them.

Outstanding British Film

1917
Bait
For Sama
Rocketman
Sorry We Missed You
The Two Popes

Two Popes counts as a British film? Okay. The writer is British, I know that. And one of the producers is British. But also, Netflix. But sure. If you’re counting it, it counts. 1917 clearly gonna win this. Rocketman makes sense. For Sama is amazing and I’m kind of rooting for it here even though it stands no chance. Truly don’t know what Bait is, and Sorry We Missed You is Ken Loach, which… obviously. Guessing Bait is the ‘first-timer’ spot they like to throw in there to look diverse. But sure.

Unless they try to split the vote and go Rocketman here and 1917 in Picture, hard to believe the movie in both categories doesn’t win. I haven’t attempted to look to see how many times that split has happened and whether or not the film in the big category won or didn’t win here, because ultimately it doesn’t matter. We’re trying to guess Oscars, not BAFTAs.

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Bait
For Sama
Maiden
Only You
Retablo

There’s Bait, so that answers my question from above. Two documentaries, too. Good for them. Both were really good. No idea what the other two are, but happy they got on.

Best Director

Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

I mean, that’s your Best Picture list, so I’d hope no one is surprised there. Slightly surprised to see them so all in on Joker, but hey, float that boat. In a way, I’d rather see Joker than Marriage Story. But it’s a very particular way and really comes out to the same end. But hey, a 5/5 match means they’re set in their choices. So now it comes down to if they split the categories at the ceremony. But we’ve got a month for that, so until we have DGA nominees (which is a few hours from now), there’s not much to talk about with this one.

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Oh, well now this is interesting. They went all in on Two Popes. I can’t imagine the voting branch of the Academy gets Jonathan Pryce in there. The other four seem pretty locked at this point. Egerton winning the Globe over Leo and this (all-but-assured, admittedly) nomination put him across the board. So now the question is that fifth spot. Ford v Ferrari has gotten totally shut out thus far, and Bale didn’t get what seemed like it might have been an easy pickup with BAFTA. So now you gotta figure — is it Bale, is it Pryce, is it De Niro with only BFCA? Can someone from Parasite get in? Technically the person left with the most precursors is Antonio Banderas. This’ll be a fun one to think about over the next week.

I’m also really interested to see if they go all in on Joaquin like everyone else is doing, or if we’re seriously staring down Taron Egerton winning half the precursors.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley, Wild Rose
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy

RIGHT, Jessie Buckley. I knew there was a quintessentially British nominee that was gonna make this list. I forgot she was the obvious choice. Good for her. Cynthia Erivo, also British, but playing an American slave in an American movie… also one that wasn’t very good, but that’s beside the point… they weren’t putting her on here.

But yeah, that tracks. That is 4/5 the usual expected category. Saoirse shores up a spot on the list, and now it’s looking like Lupita vs. Erivo for that last spot, and BAFTA gave us no help. Which then begs the question… can Awkwafina pull out the surprise nomination? Is there a Parasite nomination to be had? They’ve been cagey about not pushing anyone from the film in specific categories, which has seemed like a weird choice. Usually they telegraph where they want you to vote people. So I’m wondering if that does anything other than hurt its chances for a specific acting nomination. I guess we’ll see.

Either way, we’ve got 4/5 of Best Actress in front of us, and to this point, only two other people have hit major precursors, and then Awkwafina is also there. But considering she’s 30, didn’t seem overly grateful when she won the Globe (and trust me, the old guard of the Academy for sure considers that) and is in a foreign-ish movie… that can be a problem for some people. Though Erivo’s film most people might not have actually watched either and Lupita’s in a movie they might consider more ‘popcorn’ than an Oscar movie. So there’s really no concrete help anywhere with this. Everyone’s got their downsides. I guess we’ll see what happens in a week.

Otherwise, in terms of the category, we’ve got yet another matchup between Renée and Scarlett. And until Scarlett actually wins something (we’ll see what BFCA does. I can’t imagine Renée beats Scarlett there, though who knows), we’ve gotta assume Renée wins all the way through.

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

I mean, yeah, that’s basically your category. Literally no one else has had meaningful support across multiple bodies. Willem Dafoe got a BFCA nomination, but alongside these five, and Jamie Foxx got a popularity SAG nod instead of Tony Hopkins. This shit is basically locked.

It’s gonna be so great seeing Brad win everything.

Best Supporting Actress

Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood

A HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA.

Oh my god. What a joke. You guys liked Margot that much you nominated her for that nothing of a role? Holy shit.

Holy shit.

So Margot and Scarlett are double-nominated.

The interesting thing is… Scarlett actually looks to be double nominated at the Oscars.

But again, we see the trouble with this category. No one can settle on a batch of nominees. Kathy Bates missed everything but BFCA (but she does have the NBR win and a couple of random critics nominations), Nicole Kidman only has SAG (which feels like a popularity nomination over anything else), Jennifer Lopez of course misses this, because does anyone really think she’s gonna get nominated? And Florence gets on here, actually bolstering her chances of coming along with Saoirse.

Unless someone from Parasite or Zhao Shuzhen gets on for The Farewell, this is gonna be a real tough category to figure out. Apart from the fact that Laura Dern is winning it, of course.

But holy shit. Margot for Once Upon a Time… what the fuck, guys?

Best Original Screenplay

Booksmart
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Well, four of these should for sure be the Oscar category. Interesting to not see 1917 on this list. Booksmart picks up two big wins in a row, getting WGA and this in consecutive days. That means that’s right there in the top six. Seems like we’re figuring Booksmart, 1917, The Farewell and Ford v Ferrari for that last spot (and I’m keeping one eye open for that Rian Johnson snub, because you can just feel that one coming).

I suspect Quentin or Bong Joon-ho wins this, as one would suspect at the Oscars too. That’ll be an interesting race to track.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes

I mean, yeah, those are five of the six that we’ve been seeing everywhere. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood got on WGA, but that’s because Two Popes went Original there and missed out in the stronger category. Otherwise we’ve literally had the same list all the way through, so there really are only six choices with this one. Glad to see them confirming that much.

This will be an interesting litmus test to see what wins. I feel like they might go Two Popes. Which really makes the Oscar conversation more interesting. Because do they care enough to vote Joker for Screenplay? Do they vote en masse for Two Popes? Or is it one of the other three? Which, at that point, becomes a real interesting scenario. Think of all the pressure USC is under right now.

Best Editing

Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

There’s Ford v Ferrari, finally. Under its UK title — Le Mans ’66. Interesting to not see Parasite here. 1917 I knew, because it’s doing the Birdman thing. But Parasite though… the Academy shouldn’t make that mistake, one wouldn’t think. But also… Ford v Ferrari, Irishman, Joker, Once Upon a Time, Parasite… sure feels like an Oscar Editing category to me. Unless, of course, something else is considered more of a contender for Picture other than Joker. But with 1917 being a big contender and not needing an Editing nomination, that frees them up. So really it’s just about whether Marriage Story gets in or not or something else like Jojo or Knives Out overperforms based on what we’ve seen to this point.

Best Cinematography

1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
The Lighthouse

This is the ASC list with Lighthouse swapped on (from just special award to actual nominee) and Once Upon a Time off. There is no way Bob Richardson isn’t getting on that final list. So the question is what gets left off in the end. That’ll be interesting, but that’s yet another category where it’s six films for five spots, unless we think Parasite somehow sneaks on there. Though I’m not sure people are raving about the cinematography there and I’m pretty sure they’ve got five respected DPs here and a black and white nominee, which they love. They’re set on shit they like. I don’t think we need to look further past those six.

Best Original Score

1917
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

There’s John Williams, reminding you that he’s gonna get that Oscar nomination because he’s literally never not been nominated in a Star Wars year (granted, he was nominated for other stuff during the prequels, but he was always nominated).

Otherwise, Little Women, Joker and 1917 also seem pretty locked, which just means that fifth spot we’re figuring out. Jojo doesn’t feel like the answer, but I’m thinking that Marriage Story probably does, just because it’s Randy. But we’ll see.

At this point, I see no reason Hildur doesn’t go win everything, but Thomas Newman could also finally win his first one or Desplat could win his third in six years.

Best Production Design

1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Whoa. Editing, Production Design. They like Jojo a lot. That’s four nominations so far. That’s a good thing to note, guys. The UK contingent has swung nominations in the past. Do not discount that Jojo love. This might help me, assuming the PGA nominates it, put that in my top seven or eight, even. That’s good to know.

Other than that, these exact five showed up in ADG Period, with Ford v Ferrari as a sixth nominee. Four of these five hit BFCA, save Jojo. The only real other big contenders are Little Women and Parasite. Downton I thought would get on here, but I guess BAFTA, of all people, know it’s a real castle they’re using. Or maybe the bigger profile stuff just overtook it. Either way, we’re pretty set here too. We’ve got eight choices for five spots and four of them seem pretty locked. Gotta feel good about where we are in this one too.

Best Costume Design

The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Judy
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

There’s Jojo again, guys. That must have just missed the Best Picture list.

Slightly surprised to not see Rocketman here. They went Judy instead. Which is interesting. That’s the first time that’s hit anything. Also absolutely no Downton Abbey here. I had to check to make sure it was even released in the UK and was eligible. It was, they just didn’t nominate it at all.

Once Upon a Time is literally the only movie to hit every precursor this year. Which is a really interesting turn of events. We’re gonna have a fun time figuring this out. Welcome to the dicey waters of Costumes that I remember so well.

Best Makeup and Hair

1917
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Rocketman

These are all on the shortlist, so at least we’ve got that. So is Downton Abbey, I’ll note. Which means they straight up ignored it at the place where it should have had the best chances at nominations.

But yeah, that’s half the shortlist, Dolemite hit some other precursors, as did Once Upon a Time. Little Women’s missed everything, Maleficent got one measly throwaway nomination and then there’s Downton Abbey. I’m feeling pretty good about 3 of the eventual nominees, but not the last two. Which, surprise, this is the first year we’ve got 5 nominees in the category, so I guess that’s how we all should be feeling about the category.

Best Visual Effects

1917
Avengers: Endgame

The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

All of these are shortlisted and this sure as hell looks like your final category. You know what the rest of the shortlist is? Cats — never gonna happen after that reception. Terminator — highly doubt that one. Alita — maybe. Legitimately maybe, though tall order given the stature of everything else there. Captain Marvel — highly doubt it. Gemini Man — not a goddamn chance in hell. So it’s these five, and maybe Alita. VES should confirm most of this later today, but we’ll see what, if anything else, makes the big Effects category for them. 1917 could be considered Supporting, which opens the door for a fifth choice to get on there and become that alternate nominee. If it’s not Alita, then it’s Captain Marvel. I can’t imagine they nominate any of the other three there. But we’ll see. BAFTA is also historically very good with this category, so I’m gonna trust them to have gotten most, if not all, of this right, straight up.

Best Sound

1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Rocketman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BAFTA always treats Star Wars better than the Academy does. But also, three of those are locks for the Sound categories. The question is if Rocketman gets both, but other than that, you’re pretty set. Once Upon a Time will get one or both, and Joker will get one or both… honestly, you’re looking good on Sound. And that’s before I’ve even gone back to look at what he guilds did. This feels like it helped shore up a lot of things about the category.

Best Animated Film

Frozen II
Klaus
Shaun the Sheep: Farmageddon
Toy Story 4

Shaun the Sheep wasn’t eligible (or submitted) for the Oscar, but the other three were. I think we’re all expecting Frozen and Toy Story to be on. Klaus is an interesting one, and tells me that one has a legitimate case to be the fifth nominee. Which is interesting. Not sure it happens, but it’s right there. I haven’t checked in with Animated in a while, but I think it’s Toy Story, Frozen, Missing Link, How to Train Your Dragon, and then that fifth spot. Which I think is between Klaus, I Lost My Body and Abominable, and I’m also not discounting Spies in Disguise, just because it did do decent enough reviews to broadly be considered ‘okay’ for a nomination. So this changes none of my opinions about the category other than makes Klaus a legitimate contender for that spot, and possibly even the favorite. So that’s gonna be interesting to think about over the next week.

Best Foreign Language Film

The Farewell
For Sama
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Love the For Sama love. That’s really great for them. I’m really happy about that. I also was gonna talk about how a broad ‘other language’ category allows more ‘known’ stuff to get on, but on the other hand, the Academy’s drawn out process does allow other countries to get into the mix outside of the same usual crap. So it’s a bit of a give and a take. And also, we all know Parasite is sweeping everything this year. This is the first foreign language film I’ve seen in a long time that feels like it might have a legitimate shot at winning Picture. But we’ll see. We’re a long way from that yet.

Best Documentary

American Factory
Apollo 11

Diego Maradona
For Sama
The Great Hack

That’s 3 for 3 for the Maradona guy. He won for Senna (which won Editing here and was nominated in big categories) and for Amy. They love him. The other four were shortlisted, and I suspect three of them look pretty solid for eventual Oscar inclusion. Though documentary is probably the most broken current category, so I put nothing past them there. They make some fucked up choices most years.

Best Casting

Joker
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Personal History of David Copperfield
The Two Popes

This is a new category. That’s cool. Shout out the casting directors. Casting and Stunts are the two categories that could use more appreciation. Though I’m not sure we want or need them being televised at the ceremony. But what if you did a thing where they became Oscars but were announced during the red carpet or something? Get more viewers that way. Or, I guess, that’s because they only do a short red carpet on the actual channel that airs the show, and every other red carpet thing is a competing network? But at this point, all these corporations own all the same shit anyway. I’m sure you can find a way to make it work without further bogging down the actual show. But also… if you’re gonna eventually consolidate the two Sound categories into one like they want to and like BAFTA does, there is room for one more category on the show. You can get away with a Casting award at the Sci-Fi and technical awards — or maybe you put Stunts there and then Casting becomes a big one? I don’t know. But whatever you do, don’t put that Best Popular Film bullshit in there. That was one of the worst ideas I’ve ever heard.

Best British Short

Azaar
Goldfish
Kamali
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
The Trap

Hey, I actually know one of these! Learning to Skateboard is shortlisted for Documentary Short. So there’s at least that and we’re not completely skipping this category like we usually do

Best British Animated Short

Granddad Was a Romantic
In Her Boots
The Magic Boat

This is an example of a category we’re skipping because nobody knows the nominees and because none of them are shortlisted for the Oscar category. Good for all of you, but this isn’t my show. So I hope you all win, and I’ll be moving along now.

Rising Star Award
Awkwafina
Jack Lowden
Kaitlyn Dever
Kelvin Harrison, Jr.
Micheal Ward

I guess I can accept Awkwafina. Harrison is the true rising star of the group. Dever’s already broke. You’re way late on her. Ward fits in the ‘never heard of him’ spot. And Lowden — dude, he was in Dunkirk and Mary Queen of Scots in the past two years. We know who he is. No one even really clocked him in Fighting with My Family. But sure, consider him a rising star now.

– – – – –

So anyway, that’s BAFTA. My thoughts are all pretty much there and they’re all basically as everything relates to the Oscars, because obviously that’s my main concern here. PGA ad DGA come later today and we’ll get Visual Effects help, even though we don’t really need it. PGA and DGA are gonna tell the tale for us, so this’ll be an interesting day.

– – – – – – – – – –

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