Oscars 2019 Category Breakdown: Best Actress

Here’s how this works: every day leading up to the Oscars, I break down each of the 24 categories. The goal is to both familiarize everyone with the category itself (how it works, what its history is and how you go about figuring out what’s gonna win) while also making it easier to reference when I write my giant article with picks and everything. A lot of the leg work is already here. But really, the goal is to see if there’s anything to look for leading into Oscar night that could be a shortcut to me picking the category.

What we do is — I give you all the winners of the category throughout history, go over all the recent trends if there are any, discuss the precursors and whether or not they matter, and then we talk about this year’s category and how we got to it, and then just look at where we are and rank the nominees in terms of their likelihood of winning (at the current moment in time. Of course, things can and will change going into the ceremony). It’s all pretty simple. I’ve done this every year. Everyone should know the drill.

Today is Best Actress. And the only category that seemed like maybe it could have been interesting going into precursors… and then it turned out to be as locked as the rest of them.

Year	Best Actress Winners	Other Nominees
1927-1928	Janet Gaynor, Seventh Heaven & Street Angel & Sunrise	Louise Dresser, A Ship Comes In Gloria Swanson, Sadie Thompson
1928-1929	Mary Pickford, Coquette	Ruth Chatterton, Madame X Betty Compson, The Barker Jeanne Eagels, The Letter Corrinne Griffith, The Divine Lady Bessie Love, The Broadway Melody
1929-1930	Norma Shearer, The Divorcee	Nancy Carroll, The Devil’s Holiday Ruth Chatterton, Sarah and Son Greta Garbo, Anna Christie & Romance Norma Shearer, Their Own Desire Gloria Swanson, The Tresspasser
1930-1931	Marie Dressler, Min and Bill	Marlene Dietrich, Morocco Irene Dunne, Cimarron Ann Harding, Holiday Norma Shearer, A Free Soul
1931-1932	Helen Hayes, The Sin of Madelon Claudet	Marie Dressler, Emma Lynn Fontaine, The Guardsman
1932-1933	Katharine Hepburn, Morning Glory	May Robson, Lady for a Day Diana Wynyard, Cavalcade
1934	Claudette Colbert, It Happened One Night	Grace Moore, One Night of Love Norma Shearer, The Barretts of Wimpole Street Bette Davis, Of Human Bondage
1935	Bette Davis, Dangerous	Elisabeth Bergner, Escape Me Never Claudette Colbert, Private Worlds Katharine Hepburn, Alice Adams Miriam Hopkins, Becky Sharp Merle Oberon, The Dark Angel
1936	Luise Rainer, The Great Ziegfeld	Irene Dunne, Theodora Goes Wild Gladys George, Valiant is the Word for Carrie Carole Lombard, My Man Godfrey Norma Shearer, Romeo and Juliet
1937	Luise Rainer, The Good Earth	Irene Dunne, The Awful Truth Greta Garbo, Camille Janet Gaynor, A Star is Born Barbara Stanwyck, Stella Dallas
1938	Bette Davis, Jezebel	Fay Bainter, White Banners Wendy Hiller, Pygmalion Norma Shearer, Marie Antoinette Margaret Sullivan, Three Comrades
1939	Vivien Leigh, Gone with the Wind	Bette Davis, Dark Victory Irene Dunne, Love Affair Greta Garbo, Ninotchka Greer Garson, Goodbye, Mr. Chips
1940	Ginger Rogers, Kitty Foyle	Bette Davis, The Letter Joan Fontaine, Rebecca Katharine Hepburn, The Philadelphia Story Martha Scott, Our Town
1941	Joan Fontaine, Suspicion	Bette Davis, The Little Foxes Olivia de Havilland, Hold Back the Dawn Greer Garson, Blossoms in the Dust Barbara Stanwyck, Ball of Fire
1942	Greer Garson, Mrs. Miniver	Bette Davis, Now, Voyager Katharine Hepburn, Woman of the Year Rosalind Russell, My Sister Eileen Teresa Wright, The Pride of the Yankees
1943	Jennifer Jones, The Song of Bernadette	Jean Arthur, The More the Merrier Ingrid Bergman, For Whom the Bell Tolls Joan Fontaine, The Constant Nymph Greer Garson, Madame Curie
1944	Ingrid Bergman, Gaslight	Claudette Colbert, Since You Went Away Bette Davis, Mr. Skeffington Greer Garson, Mrs. Parkington Barbara Stanwyck, Double Indemnity
1945	Joan Crawford, Mildred Pierce	Ingrid Bergman, The Bells of St. Mary’s Greer Garson, The Valley of Decision Jennifer Jones, Love Letters Gene Tierney, Leave Her to Heaven
1946	Olivia de Havilland, To Each His Own	Celia Johnson, Brief Encounter Jennifer Jones, Duel in the Sun Rosalind Russell, Sister Kenny Jane Wyman, The Yearling
1947	Loretta Young, The Farmer’s Daughter	Joan Crawford, Possessed Susan Hayward, Smash-up, the Story of a Woman Dorothy McGuire, Gentleman’s Agreement Rosalind Russell, Mourning Becomes Electra
1948	Jane Wyman, Johnny Belinda	Ingrid Bergman, Joan of Arc Olivia de Havilland, The Snake Pit Irene Dunne, I Remember Mama Barbara Stanwyck, Sorry, Wrong Number
1949	Olivia de Havilland, The Heiress	Jeanne Crain, Pinky Susan Hayward, My Foolish Heart Deborah Kerr, Edward, My Son Loretta Young, Come to the Stable
1950	Judy Holliday, Born Yesterday	Anne Baxter, All About Eve Betty Davis, All About Eve Eleanor Parker, Caged Gloria Swanson, Sunset Boulevard
1951	Vivien Leigh, A Streetcar Named Desire	Katharine Hepburn, The African Queen Eleanor Parker, Detective Story Shelley Winters, A Place in the Sun Jane Wyman, The Blue Veil
1952	Shirley Booth, Come Back, Little Sheba	Joan Crawford, Sudden Fear Bette Davis, The Star Julie Harris, The Member of the Wedding Susan Hayward, With a Song in My Heart
1953	Audrey Hepburn, Roman Holiday	Leslie Caron, Lili Ava Gardner, Mogambo Deborah Kerr, From Here to Eternity Maggie McNamara, The Moon is Blue
1954	Grace Kelly, The Country Girl	Dorothy Dandridge, Carmen Jones Judy Garland, A Star is Born Audrey Hepburn, Sabrina Jane Wyman, Magnificent Obsession
1955	Anna Magnani, The Rose Tattoo	Susan Hayward, I’ll Cry Tomorrow Katharine Hepburn, Summertime Jennifer Jones, Love is a Many-Splendored Thing Eleanor Parker, Interrupted Melody
1956	Ingrid Bergman, Anastasia	Carroll Baker, Baby Doll Katharine Hepburn, The Rainmaker Nancy Kelly, The Bad Seed Deborah Kerr, The King and I
1957	Joanne Woodward, The Three Faces of Eve	Deborah Kerr, Heaven Knows, Mr. Allison Anna Magnani, Wild is the Wind Elizabeth Taylor, Raintree County Lana Turner, Peyton Place
1958	Susan Hayward, I Want to Live!	Deborah Kerr, Separate Tables Shirley MacLaine, Some Came Running Rosalind Russell, Auntie Mame Elizabeth Taylor, Cat on a Hot Tin Roof
1959	Simone Signoret, Room at the Top	Doris Day, Pillow Talk Audrey Hepburn, The Nun’s Story Katharine Hepburn, Suddenly, Last Summer Elizabeth Taylor, Suddenly, Last Summer
1960	Elizabeth Taylor, BUtterfield 8	Greer Garson, Sunrise at Campobello Deborah Kerr, The Sundowners Shirley MacLaine, The Apartment Melina Mercouri, Never on Sunday
1961	Sophia Loren, Two Women	Audrey Hepburn, Breakfast at Tiffany’s Piper Laurie, The Hustler Geraldine Page, Summer and Smoke Natalie Wood, Splendor in the Grass
1962	Anne Bancroft, The Miracle Worker	Bette Davis, What Ever Happened to Baby Jane? Katharine Hepburn, Long Day’s Journey Into Night Geraldine Page, Sweet Bird of Youth Lee Remick, Days of Wine and Roses
1963	Patricia Neal, Hud	Leslie Caron, The L-Shaped Room Shirley MacLaine, Irma La Douce Rachel Roberts, This Sporting Life Natalie Wood, Love with the Proper Stranger
1964	Julie Andrews, Mary Poppins	Anne Bancroft, The Pumpkin Eater Sophia Loren, Marriage, Italian Style Debbie Reynolds, The Unsinkable Molly Brown Kim Stanley, Séance on a Wet Afternoon
1965	Julie Christie, Darling	Julie Andrews, The Sound of Music Samantha Eggar, The Collector Elizabeth Hartman, A Patch of Blue Simone Signoret, Ship of Fools
1966	Elizabeth Taylor, Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?	Anouk Aimée, A Man and a Woman Ida Kaminska, The Shop on Main Street Lynn Redgrave, Georgy Girl Vanessa Redgrave, Morgan!
1967	Katharine Hepburn, Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner?	Anne Bancroft, The Graduate Faye Dunaway, Bonnie and Clyde Edith Evans, The Whisperers Audrey Hepburn, Wait Until Dark
1968	TIE Katharine Hepburn, The Lion in Winter Barbra Streisand, Funny Girl	Patricia Neal, The Subject Was Roses Vanessa Redgrave, Isadora Joanne Woodward, Rachel, Rachel
1969	Maggie Smith, The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie	Geneviève Bujold, Anne of the Thousand Days Jane Fonda, They Shoot Horses, Don’t They? Liza Minnelli, The Sterile Cuckoo Jean Simmons, The Happy Ending
1970	Glenda Jackson, Women in Love	Jane Alexander, The Great White Hope Ali MacGraw, Love Story Sarah Miles, Ryan’s Daughter Carrie Snodgress, Diary of a Mad Housewife
1971	Jane Fonda, Klute	Julie Christie, McCabe & Mrs. Miller Glenda Jackson, Sunday Bloody Sunday Vanessa Redgrave, Mary, Queen of Scots Janet Suzman – Nicholas and Alexandra
1972	Liza Minnelli, Cabaret	Diana Ross, Lady Sings the Blues Maggie Smith, Travels with My Aunt Cicely Tyson, Sounder Liv Ullmann, The Emigrants
1973	Glenda Jackson, A Touch of Class	Ellen Burstyn, The Exorcist Marsha Mason, Cinderella Liberty Barbra Streisand, The Way We Were Joanne Woodward, Summer Wishes, Winter Dreams
1974	Ellen Burstyn, Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore	Diahann Carroll, Claudine Faye Dunaway, Chinatown Valerie Perrine, Lenny Gena Rowlands, A Woman Under the Influence
1975	Louise Fletcher, One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest	Ann-Margret, Tommy Isabelle Adjani, The Story of Adele H. Glenda Jackson, Hedda Carol Kane, Hester Street
1976	Faye Dunaway, Network	Marie-Christine Barrault, Cousin, cousine Talia Shire, Rocky Sissy Spacek, Carrie Liv Ullmann, Face to Face
1977	Diane Keaton, Annie Hall	Anne Bancroft, The Turning Point Jane Fonda, Julia Shirley MacLaine, The Turning Point Marsha Mason, The Goodbye Girl
1978	Jane Fonda, Coming Home	Ingrid Bergman, Autumn Sonata Ellen Burstyn, Same Time, Next Year Jill Clayburgh, An Unmarried Woman Geraldine Page, Interiors
1979	Sally Field, Norma Rae	Jill Clayburgh, Starting Over Jane Fonda, The China Syndrome Marsha Mason, Chapter Two Bette Midler, The Rose
1980	Sissy Spacek, Coal Miner’s Daughter	Ellen Burstyn, Resurrection Goldie Hawn, Private Benjamin Mary Tyler Moore, Ordinary People Gena Rowlands, Gloria
1981	Katharine Hepburn, On Golden Pond	Diane Keaton, Reds Marsha Mason, Only When I Laugh Susan Sarandon, Atlantic City Meryl Streep, The French Lieutenant’s Woman
1982	Meryl Streep, Sophie’s Choice	Julie Andrews, Victor Victoria Jessica Lange, Frances Sissy Spacek, Missing Debra Winger, An Officer and a Gentleman
1983	Shirley MacLaine, Terms of Endearment	Jane Alexander, Testament Meryl Streep, Silkwood Julie Walters, Educating Rita Debra Winger, Terms of Endearment
1984	Sally Field, Places in the Heart	Judy Davis, A Passage to India Jessica Lange, Country Vanessa Redgrave, The Bostonians Sissy Spacek, The River
1985	Geraldine Page, The Trip to Bountiful	Anne Bancroft, Agnes of God Whoopi Goldberg, The Color Purple Jessica Lange, Sweet Dreams Meryl Streep, Out of Africa
1986	Marlee Matlin, Children of a Lesser God	Jane Fonda, The Morning After Sissy Spacek, Crimes of the Heart Kathleen Turner, Peggy Sue Got Married Sigourney Weaver, Aliens
1987	Cher, Moonstruck	Glenn Close, Fatal Attraction Holly Hunter, Broadcast News Sally Kirkland, Anna Meryl Streep, Ironweed
1988	Jodie Foster, The Accused	Glenn Close, Dangerous Liaisons Melanie Griffith, Working Girl Meryl Streep, A Cry in the Dark Sigourney Weaver, Gorillas in the Mist
1989	Jessica Tandy, Driving Miss Daisy	Isabelle Adjani, Camille Claudel Pauline Collins, Shirley Valentine Jessica Lange, Music Box Michelle Pfeiffer, The Fabulous Baker Boys
1990	Kathy Bates, Misery	Anjelica Huston, The Grifters Julia Roberts, Pretty Woman Meryl Streep, Postcards from the Edge Joanne Woodward, Mr. and Mrs. Bridge
1991	Jodie Foster, The Silence of the Lambs	Geena Davis, Thelma & Louise Laura Dern, Rambling Rose Bette Midler, For the Boys Susan Sarandon, Thelma & Louise
1992	Emma Thompson, Howards End	Catherine Deneuve, Indochine Mary McDonnell, Passion Fish Michelle Pfeiffer, Love Field Susan Sarandon, Lorenzo’s Oil
1993	Holly Hunter, The Piano	Angela Bassett, What’s Love Got to Do with It Stockhard Channing, Six Degrees of Separation Emma Thompson, The Remains of the Day Debra Winger, Shadowlands
1994	Jessica Lange, Blue Sky	Jodie Foster, Nell Miranda Richardson, Tom & Viv Winona Ryder, Little Women Susan Sarandon, The Client
1995	Susan Sarandon, Dead Man Walking	Elisabeth Shue, Leaving Las Vegas Sharon Stone, Casino Meryl Streep, The Bridges of Madison County Emma Thompson, Sense and Sensibility
1996	Frances McDormand, Fargo	Brenda Blethyn, Secrets & Lies Diane Keaton, Marvin’s Room Kristin Scott Thomas, The English Patient Emily Watson, Breaking the Waves
1997	Helen Hunt, As Good as It Gets	Helena Bonham Carter, The Wings of the Dove Julie Christie, Afterglow Judi Dench, Mrs. Brown Kate Winslet, Titanic
1998	Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love	Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth Fernanda Montenegro, Central Station Meryl Streep, One True Thing Emily Watson, Hilary and Jackie
1999	Hilary Swank, Boys Don’t Cry	Annette Bening, American Beauty Janet McTeer, Tumbleweeds Julianne Moore, The End of the Affair Meryl Streep, Music of the Heart
2000	Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich	Joan Allen, The Contender Juliette Binoche, Chocolat Ellen Burstyn, Requiem for a Dream Laura Linney, You Can Count on Me
2001	Halle Berry, Monster’s Ball	Judi Dench, Iris Nicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge! Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom Renée Zellweger, Bridget Jones’s Diary
2002	Nicole Kidman, The Hours	Salma Hayek, Frida Diane Lane, Unfaithful Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven Renée Zellweger, Chicago
2003	Charlize Theron, Monster	Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give Samantha Morton, In America Naomi Watts, 21 Grams
2004	Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby	Annette Bening, Being Julia Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
2005	Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line	Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents Felicity Huffman, Transamerica Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice Charlize Theron, North Country
2006	Helen Mirren, The Queen	Penèlope Cruz, Volver Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada Kate Winslet, Little Children
2007	Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose	Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age Julie Christie, Away from Her Laura Linney, The Savages Ellen Page, Juno
2008	Kate Winslet, The Reader	Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married Angelina Jolie, Changeling Melissa Leo, Frozen River Meryl Streep, Doubt
2009	Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side	Helen Mirren, The Last Station Carey Mulligan, An Education Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire Meryl Streep, Julia and Julia
2010	Natalie Portman, Black Swan	Annette Bening, The Kids are All Right Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
2011	Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady	Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs Viola Davis, The Help Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
2012	Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook	Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty Emmanuelle Riva, Amour Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild Naomi Watts, The Impossible
2013	Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine	Amy Adams, American Hustle Judi Dench, Philomena Meryl Streep, August: Osage County Naomi Watts, The Impossible
2014	Julianne Moore, Still Alice	Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl Reese Witherspoon, Wild
2015	Brie Larson, Room	Cate Blanchett, Carol Jennifer Lawrence, Joy Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
2016	Emma Stone, La La Land	Isabelle Huppert, Elle Ruth Negga, Loving Natalie Portman, Jackie Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
2017	Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water Margot Robbie, I, Tonya Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird Meryl Streep, The Post
2018	Olivia Colman, The Favourite	Yalitza Aparicio, Roma Glenn Close, The Wife Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Another acting category, which means that it’s SAG as the main precursor and then BAFTA, BFCA and the Globes to back it up like the Pips.

SAG is 18/25 all-time in this category. Here are the seven times they missed:

1994, Jodie Foster won SAG, Jessica Lange won the Oscar.
1999, Annette Bening won SAG, Hilary Swank won the Oscar.
2002, Renée Zellweger won SAG, Nicole Kidman won the Oscar.
2007, Julie Christie won SAG, Marion Cotillard won the Oscar.
2008, Meryl won SAG, Kate Winslet won the Oscar. (Though she also won SAG Supporting for that same performance.)
2011, Viola Davis won SAG, Meryl won the Oscar.
2018, Glenn Close won SAG, Olivia Colman won the Oscar.

They were stone cold locks in recent years and then last year they missed. Though granted, most of us figured Glenn Close had it. But it turns out, just being a veteran doesn’t mean anything anymore if no one saw your movie. Olivia Colman was actually in a movie people saw and loved. But yeah, otherwise, you wanna listen to SAG. Pretty sure we’re not gonna have that doubt this year.

I won’t fully cross-list with BAFTA and BFCA. We pretty much know where this one’s going. Though I will say, since 2000… BAFTA has had every single SAG miss.

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

Charlize Theron, Bombshell

Renée Zellweger, Judy

These were the five that hit the most precursors. It was kinda boring, honestly. Still is. Thought they’d find someone cooler to put on over Erivo, but instead, nope. We got this category. Can’t say I love it, but at least it’ll be easy enough to pick.

Renée Zellweger’s won SAG, the Globe and BFCA so far. BAFTA will make it a clean sweep, and honestly, at this point, she doesn’t even need it, does she?

Rankings:

5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet — I’m still not entirely sure how she got nominated. But here she is. It’s one thing to get votes to get in this category, it’s another to get them to actually contend for the win. And this is the film of the five that nobody’s seen. Nobody cares, and if they have seen it, I don’t know if anyone actually thinks it’s a great movie. There’s no way she gets any sort of votes to contend for this one. The nomination is the reward here.

4. Charlize Theron, Bombshell — People like her a lot, and maybe she’ll get a few votes on that and on performance. But it’s hard seeing her as anything higher than a third choice. I’m putting her fourth because the film has the least overall support. Maybe you can consider her the third choice, but it’s hard going higher than that. We know where this one’s going.

3. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women — Six nominations for the film, people love her and, for people like me, she’s really the only person we’d vote for. That last part means absolutely nothing, but I think there’s a case to be made for her as third choice here. In terms of overall votes, I’m sure she’s no more than a fourth choice, but when one person has run away with every single precursor, it doesn’t really matter, does it?

2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story — Double nominations means clear support, and some people actually think she gave the best performance. I can’t see her having enough to win this, especially absent a single precursor win. But she feels like the second choice here, all things considered.

1. Renée Zellweger, Judy — She’s won every precursor to this point, and it’s hard to think that she’s gonna lose BAFTA. She’s the frontrunner until the end. Also, it should be noted, a clean sweep winner has never lost the Oscar. So if she wins BAFTA too, it’s over.

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This entry was posted on January 21, 2020 by B+ Movie Blog. It was filed under Movies, Oscars and was tagged with 2019, 92nd Academy Awards, Best Actress, Category Breakdown, Film, Movies, Oscar, Oscars.

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