Oscars 2019: BAFTA Awards

Okay, finally, the last precursor has been announced. And it’s the biggest of them all. We’re a week out from the Oscars and we only just got the final piece of the puzzle. Usually we’re pretty set on all this stuff beforehand and all we’re waiting on is like, the Sound Editors guild or the Costume Designers guild. But, then again, most years the Oscar ceremony isn’t a week after the Super Bowl. It’s a weird year.

But anyway, this should lock in just about every category anyone was remotely iffy about (which for me at this point is like, two. It’s a pretty straightforward year, feels like).

Here are your BAFTA winners:

Best Film

1917
The Irishman
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Winner: 1917

I can’t imagine anyone is surprised by this development. This was its backyard. If it didn’t win here, that was gonna be a big red flag.

1917 has now won the PGA, BAFTA and the Globe for Drama, while Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won the other Globe and BFCA and Parasite has won only SAG. So you pretty much have a clear path to the top three, though I’m still worried about that lack of an Editing nomination for Once Upon a Time. But there’s a clear favorite, so all we’re really doing there is figuring out what the potential upset choice is between Parasite and Once Upon a Time.

Outstanding British Film

1917
Bait
For Sama
Rocketman
Sorry We Missed You
The Two Popes

Winner: 1917

Of course. Where else were they gonna go with it? Rocketman?

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Bait
For Sama
Maiden
Only You
Retablo

Winner: Bait

K. That cools the jets on any For Sama upset I could be smelling, not that it’s not fully in contention for Documentary, but if they went all in on it and it won multiple awards, then I’d start thinking more seriously about it.

Best Director

Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Winner: Sam Mendes, 1917

This was locked all the way through, no surprise there. It would actually have been worse if he lost and the film lost Best Picture.

Best Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Winner: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

As expected. Nothing to add here.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley, Wild Rose
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renée Zellweger, Judy

Winner: Renée Zellweger, Judy

That closes the door on this category. She’s got this locked.

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Winner: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Brad Pitt’s gonna win an Oscar, guys.

Best Supporting Actress

Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood

Winner: Laura Dern, Marriage Story

And that’s five of six big categories locked, and the last one seems pretty obviously locked too, for the most part. When’s the last time we had this? I’m shuffling through the memory banks… thinking at least one of the big categories was moderately in doubt most of the years of the past decade.

Trying to do this solely from memory so as not to go down a list rabbit hole… last year Best Actress surprised, so that’s out. 2017, Picture was kind of a 50/50, though the other five were locked. Though this feels more on solid ground than that was. 2016 Picture was a toss-up. 2015, we had no idea where Picture was going. 2014 was the Birdman/Boyhood year. You felt good about Birdman, but like 2017, you weren’t 100% sure. 2013 was the Picture toss-up, and Supporting Actress was pretty 50/50 too. 2012, Director was a question mark. 2011… oh, Meryl in Best Actress. 2010… oh, maybe 2010, as much as I wanted to pretend Social Network had a shot at it. Let’s see… Actor and Actress were locked. And I think Bale and Leo…oh, right, Leo. She didn’t get a BAFTA nomination. So even that wasn’t as locked as this.

Shit, this is the most locked top six in a while. We got close to this, but not as open and shut as five of these are, and as on-solid-ground as Best Picture seems to be as compared to those other ones.

Unless the Oscars go a wildly different way (or, you know, Parasite somehow wins), nobody has any excuse to miss any of these six categories.

Best Original Screenplay

Booksmart
Knives Out
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Winner: Parasite

So, this morning, as I set up this article, I wrote down what I expected to win in all the categories. And I’ll have you know that currently, I’m perfect on that ballot. (Though admittedly I didn’t fill in Outstanding Debut, because fuck if I know half those movies.)

I knew Parasite was winning this, because I just felt that momentum going for them to give this the Oscar over Quentin. The WGA win and this are big steps in that direction. Now all Quentin has in his corner is BFCA and the Globe, which… not a solid as those other two. Plus he wasn’t up for the WGA, so technically it could still happen. But it certainly looks like this is the favorite for Original Screenplay now, guys. We’ll see. This is one I actually have to think about during the week. It’ll be much easier knowing those other six I don’t have to bother with.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes

Winner: Jojo Rabbit

Yup, saw that one coming too. Little Women just did not feel like a BAFTA choice here. Greta sure looked like she could do it, but Taika does make the most sense in the end. Again, with a WGA win and now this, he’s gotta be the favorite to win. But hey, Greta’s still in there. You never know.

Best Editing

Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Winner: Ford v Ferrari

Pulled that one out of my ass too. That’s gonna make the final category really interesting. I’m really worried about this category, if I’m gonna be worried about anything this year.

This is the obvious editing choice, Parasite’s there, Irishman is Thelma, and I keep having this weird inkling toward Jojo as a contender. Joker, I don’t think can take it without a precursor. I’m guessing this probably wins the whole thing, but I’ve got this weird ‘2011’ feeling about this category and I can’t shake it.

BAFTA’s 6/10 in Editing on the decade, so not bad. But also, I’m pretty sure Parasite and Jojo won ACE, and then you can never really count out Thelma… so yeah. Definitely that 2011 feeling about this one, even if I suspect it’s probably a 50/50 choice.

Best Cinematography

1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
The Lighthouse

Winner: 1917

Of course. That’s seven locked categories going into the night.

Best Original Score

1917
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Winner: Joker

And there’s a clean sweep of those precursors. Crazy that everyone just rallied around this score out of nowhere. The last time a score swept all three precursors and then lost the Oscar was 2005. So this is looking like our eighth locked category of the night. I’m not 100% sold on this as a lock as compared to all those other ones, but at this point, you can’t really justify taking anything else. I think this is more, could something else win — sure. Little Women or 1917 theoretically have a shot at it, more so the latter. But I think this is about as locked as one can ask for in Score.

Best Production Design

1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Winner: 1917

I was really waiting to see what happened here. This one I did get wrong. I considered this as the potential winner, and I put Once Upon a Time instead. But I forgot…. what the fuck do they care about Hollywood? They live in London. So yeah, makes total sense with this as a choice, and now that pushed Parasite back to third place and this as the alternate potential winner.

BAFTA’s 6/10 in this category, so they’re not perfect by any stretch. I think this is another 50/50. So what have we got so far? Eight basically locked categories, one clear favorite in Adapted Screenplay and then three (Editing, Original Screenplay and Production Design) that you have to think about. That’s NOT BAD. That really isn’t that bad, since I can pretty much boil all three of those down to a 50/50 choice and a clear third choice if it even gets there. I really am not anticipating some crazy outcome in any of them. It’s just a matter of whether or not I’ll get lucky and be right. Which, who cares at that point. It’s all about the analysis for me anyway.

Best Costume Design

The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Judy
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Winner: Little Women

Yeah, that’s one I was hoping would come in. I needed that big win for this to lock that down as the probable choice. Because what else made sense? Once Upon a Time looks shiny but doesn’t feel like the right winner. Irishman would have shocked me as a choice and still would if it wins the Oscar. Joker got on without precursors, so I can’t see anyone putting real votes behind that. And Jojo really needed a win here for me to seriously consider it as a winner. This makes the most sense and should be yet another confidence-inspiring favorite for us to take.

Best Makeup and Hair

1917
Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Rocketman

Winner: Bombshell

That’s nine locked categories. I was curious to see if they’d maybe go Judy here. But if they went in on the quintessentially American Fox News movie… that’s a wrap.

Best Visual Effects

1917
Avengers: Endgame

The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Winner: 1917

And there it is.

That eliminates Avengers and Star Wars for competition. Thanks for playing, guys. Lion King won big VES stuff, but it’s clear it doesn’t have the support to overcome the Best Picture nominees. So what you’re left with is Irishman vs. 1917. And boy, does that look like an interesting one to track. BAFTA obviously went all in on the war movie. Will the Oscars do the same? Will they avoid Irishman because maybe they didn’t like the effects. I’m not sure how much stock to truly put into this, but BAFTA’s been great here. This is definitely a category to watch, and a fourth 50/50 for us to deliberate over the next week.

Best Sound

1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Rocketman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Winner: 1917

Yeah, that was to be expected. So this wins BAFTA, Ford v Ferrari wins CAS and they split MPSE. You almost figure 1917 wins Editing and Ford v Ferrari wins Mixing. But you know the stupid road that leads down (aka “Don’t split the Sound categories, Mike”). So we’ll see what happens. But at this point you almost figure 1917 takes both Sound categories just on profile alone.

Which puts it at, what? Picture, Director, Cinematography, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, maybe Visual Effects, maybe Production Design? That’s five, maybe six, maybe seven. That makes sense to me. Anywhere from 5-7 is the usual total for Best Picture winners in the past decade. Let me think that through — no on Screenplay, no on Makeup & Hairstyling and I highly doubt Score. So yeah, I’m thinking it’s got 5 in the bag, and could sneak 6. Production Design still feels unlikely. Though hey, maybe it wins that and loses Visual Effects. Five or six makes sense.

Best Animated Film

Frozen II
Klaus
Shaun the Sheep: Farmageddon
Toy Story 4

Winner: Klaus

Yup, expected that one too. Just because I feel like that’s the only thing that makes the category interesting. Though shit, wouldn’t we all be shocked if this somehow beat Toy Story? But hey, I don’t give a fuck. There are two choices, and an overwhelming favorite based solely on reflex.

Best Foreign Language Film

The Farewell
For Sama
Pain and Glory
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Winner: Parasite

Ten locks.

Best Documentary

American Factory
Apollo 11

Diego Maradona
For Sama
The Great Hack

Winner: For Sama

That was pretty guaranteed, given the other nominations. The shocker would have been if American Factory somehow won here too. So yeah, that all makes sense.

Best Casting

Joker
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Personal History of David Copperfield
The Two Popes

Winner: Joker

K.

Best British Short

Azaar
Goldfish
Kamali
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)
The Trap

Winner: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)

That shores that one up in Doc Short. That’s nice.

Best British Animated Short

Granddad Was a Romantic
In Her Boots
The Magic Boat

Winner: Granddad Was a Romantic

K.

Rising Star Award

Awkwafina
Jack Lowden
Kaitlyn Dever
Kelvin Harrison, Jr.
Micheal Ward

Winner: Micheal Ward

Sure.

– – – – –

Okay. So that’s BAFTA. We’ve got everything we’re gonna get, and I, for one, feel really good about this year. There’s nothing overly throwing me for a loop, and my concerns are basically just there because I have to be nervous about something, otherwise things are very wrong.

So yeah, Oscar predictions in a week, meanwhile we’ll finish the categories over the next couple of days and do all the usual fun stuff.

– – – – – – – – – –

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