Oscars 2019 Category Breakdown: Best Picture
Here’s how this works: every day leading up to the Oscars, I break down each of the 24 categories. The goal is to both familiarize everyone with the category itself (how it works, what its history is and how you go about figuring out what’s gonna win) while also making it easier to reference when I write my giant article with picks and everything. A lot of the leg work is already here. But really, the goal is to see if there’s anything to look for leading into Oscar night that could be a shortcut to me picking the category.
What we do is — I give you all the winners of the category throughout history, go over all the recent trends if there are any, discuss the precursors and whether or not they matter, and then we talk about this year’s category and how we got to it, and then just look at where we are and rank the nominees in terms of their likelihood of winning (at the current moment in time. Of course, things can and will change going into the ceremony). It’s all pretty simple. I’ve done this every year. Everyone should know the drill.
We end, as we always do, with Best Picture.
Year | Best Picture Winner | Other Nominees |
1927-1928 | Wings | The Racket
Seventh Heaven |
1928-1929 | The Broadway Melody | Alibi
The Hollywood Revue of 1929 In Old Arizona The Patriot |
1929-1930 | All Quiet on the Western Front | The Big House
Disraeli The Divorcee The Love Parade |
1930-1931 | Cimarron | East Lynne
The Front Page Skippy Trader Horn |
1931-1932 | Grand Hotel | Arrowsmith
Bad Girl The Champ Five Star Final One Hour with You Shanghai Express The Smiling Lieutenant |
1932-1933 | Cavalcade | A Farewell to Arms
42nd Street I Am a Fugitive from a Chain Gang Lady for a Day Little Women The Private Life of Henry VIII She Done Him Wrong Smilin’ Through State Fair |
1934 | It Happened One Night | The Barretts of Wimpole Street
Cleopatra Flirtation Walk The Gay Divorcee Here Comes the Navy The House of Rothschild Imitation of Life One Night of Love The Thin Man Viva Villa! The White Parade |
1935 | Mutiny on the Bounty | Alice Adams
Broadway Melody of 1936 Captain Blood David Copperfield The Informer The Lives of a Bengal Lancer A Midsummer Night’s Dream Les Misérables Naughty Marietta Ruggles of Red Gap |
1936 | The Great Ziegfeld | Anthony Adverse
Dodsworth Libeled Lady Mr. Deeds Goes to Town Romeo and Juliet San Francisco The Story of Louis Pasteur A Tale of Two Cities Three Smart Girls |
1937 | The Life of Emile Zola | The Awful Truth
Captains Courageous Dead End The Good Earth In Old Chicago Lost Horizon One Hundred Men and a Girl Stage Door A Star is Born |
1938 | You Can’t Take It with You | The Adventures of Robin Hood
Alexander’s Ragtime Band Boys Town The Citadel Four Daughters Grand Illusion Jezebel Pygmalion Test Pilot |
1939 | Gone With the Wind | Dark Victory
Goodbye Mr. Chips Love Affair Mr. Smith Goes to Washington Ninotchka Of Mice and Men Stagecoach The Wizard of Oz Wuthering Heights |
1940 | Rebecca | All This, and Heaven Too
Foreign Correspondent The Grapes of Wrath The Great Dictator Kitty Foyle The Letter The Long Voyage Home Our Town The Philadelphia Story |
1941 | How Green Was My Valley | Blossoms in the Dust
Citizen Kane Here Comes Mr. Jordan Hold Back the Dawn The Little Foxes The Maltese Falcon One Foot in Heaven Sergeant York Suspicion |
1942 | Mrs. Miniver | 49th Parallel
Kings Row The Magnificent Ambersons The Pied Piper The Pride of the Yankees Random Harvest The Talk of the Town Wake Island Yankee Doodle Dandy |
1943 | Casablanca | For Whom the Bell Tolls
Heaven Can Wait The Human Comedy In Which We Serve Madame Curie The More the Merrier The Ox-Bow Incident The Song of Bernadette Watch on the Rhine |
1944 | Going My Way | Double Indemnity
Gaslight Since You Went Away Wilson |
1945 | The Lost Weekend | Anchors Aweigh
The Bells of St. Mary’s Mildred Pierce Spellbound |
1946 | The Best Years of Our Lives | Henry V It’s a Wonderful Life
The Razor’s Edge The Yearling |
1947 | Gentleman’s Agreement | The Bishop’s Wife
Crossfire Great Expectations Miracle on 34th Street |
1948 | Hamlet | Johnny Belinda
The Red Shoe The Snake Pit The Treasure of the Sierra Madre |
1949 | All the King’s Men | Battleground
The Heiress A Letter to Three Wives Twelve O’Clock High |
1950 | All About Eve | Born Yesterday
Father of the Bride King Solomon’s Mines Sunset Boulevard |
1951 | An American in Paris | Decision Before Dawn
A Place in the Sun Quo Vadis A Streetcar Named Desire |
1952 | The Greatest Show on Earth | High Noon
Ivanhoe Moulin Rouge The Quiet Man |
1953 | From Here to Eternity | Julius Caesar
The Robe Roman Holiday Shane |
1954 | On the Waterfront | The Caine Mutiny
The Country Girl Seven Brides for Seven Brothers Three Coins in the Fountain |
1955 | Marty | Love is a Many-Splendored Thing
Mister Roberts Picnic The Rose Tattoo |
1956 | Around the World in 80 Days | Friendly Persuasion
Giant The King and I The Ten Commandments |
1957 | The Bridge on the River Kwai | Peyton Place
Sayonara 12 Angry Men Witness for Prosecution |
1958 | Gigi | Auntie Mame
Cat on a Hot Tin Roof The Defiant Ones Separate Tables |
1959 | Ben-Hur | Anatomy of a Murder
The Diary of Anne Frank The Nun’s Story Room at the Top |
1960 | The Apartment | The Alamo
Elmer Gantry Sons and Lovers The Sundowners |
1961 | West Side Story | Fanny
The Guns of Navarone The Hustler Judgment at Nuremberg |
1962 | Lawrence of Arabia | The Longest Day
The Music Man Mutiny on the Bounty To Kill a Mockingbird |
1963 | Tom Jones | America America
Cleopatra How the West Was Won Lilies of the Field |
1964 | My Fair Lady | Becket
Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb Mary Poppins Zorba the Greek |
1965 | The Sound of Music | Darling
Doctor Zhivago Ship of Fools A Thousand Clowns |
1966 | A Man for All Seasons | Alfie
The Russians are Coming the Russians are Coming The Sand Pebbles Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? |
1967 | In the Heat of the Night | Bonnie and Clyde
Doctor Dolittle The Graduate Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner |
1968 | Oliver! | Funny Girl
The Lion in Winter Rachel Rache lRomeo and Juliet |
1969 | Midnight Cowboy | Anne of the Thousand Days
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid Hello Dolly! Z |
1970 | Patton | Airport
Five Easy Pieces Love Story MASH |
1971 | The French Connection | A Clockwork Orange
Fiddler on the Roof The Last Picture Show Nicholas and Alexandra |
1972 | The Godfather | Cabaret
Deliverance The Emigrants Sounder |
1973 | The Sting | American Graffiti
Cries and Whispers The Exorcist A Touch of Class |
1974 | The Godfather Part II | Chinatown
The Conversation Lenny The Towering Inferno |
1975 | One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest | Barry Lyndon
Dog Day Afternoon Jaws Nashville |
1976 | Rocky | All the President’s Men
Bound for Glory Network Taxi Driver |
1977 | Annie Hall | The Goodbye Girl
Julia Star Wars The Turning Point |
1978 | The Deer Hunter | Coming Home
Heaven Can Wait Midnight Express An Unmarried Woman |
1979 | Kramer vs. Kramer | All That Jazz
Apocalypse Now Breaking Away Norma Rae |
1980 | Ordinary People | Coal Miner’s Daughter
The Elephant Man Raging Bull Tess |
1981 | Chariots of Fire | Atlantic City
On Golden Pond Raiders of the Lost Ark Reds |
1982 | Gandhi | E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial
Missing Tootsie The Verdict |
1983 | Terms of Endearment | The Big Chill
The Dresser The Right Stuff Tender Mercies |
1984 | Amadeus | The Killing Fields
A Passage to India Places in the Heart A Soldier’s Story |
1985 | Out of Africa | The Color Purple
Kiss of the Spider Woman Prizzi’s Honor Witness |
1986 | Platoon | Children of a Lesser God
Hannah and Her Sisters The Mission A Room with a View |
1987 | The Last Emperor | Broadcast News
Fatal Attraction Hope and Glory Moonstruck |
1988 | Rain Man | The Accidental Tourist
Dangerous Liaisons Mississippi Burning Working Girl |
1989 | Driving Miss Daisy | Born on the Fourth of July
Dead Poets Society Field of Dreams My Left Foot |
1990 | Dances with Wolves | Awakenings
Ghost The Godfather Part III Goodfellas |
1991 | The Silence of the Lambs | Beauty and the Beast
Bugsy JFK The Prince of Tides |
1992 | Unforgiven | The Crying Game
A Few Good Men Howards End Scent of a Woman |
1993 | Schindler’s List | The Fugitive
In the Name of the Father The Piano The Remains of the Day |
1994 | Forrest Gump | Four Weddings and a Funeral
Pulp Fiction Quiz Show The Shawshank Redemption |
1995 | Braveheart | Apollo 13
Babe Il Postino Sense and Sensibility |
1996 | The English Patient | Fargo
Jerry Maguire Secrets & Lies Shine |
1997 | Titanic | As Good as It Gets
The Full Monty Good Will Hunting L.A. Confidential |
1998 | Shakespeare in Love | Elizabeth
Life is Beautiful Saving Private Ryan The Thin Red Line |
1999 | American Beauty | The Cider House Rules
The Green Mile The Insider The Sixth Sense |
2000 | Gladiator | Chocolat
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon Erin Brockovich Traffic |
2001 | A Beautiful Mind | Gosford Park
In the Bedroom The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring Moulin Rouge! |
2002 | Chicago | Gangs of New York
The Hours The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers The Pianist |
2003 | The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King | Lost in Translation
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World Mystic River Seabscuit |
2004 | Million Dollar Baby | The Aviator
Finding Neverland Ray Sideways |
2005 | Crash | Brokeback Mountain
Capote Good Night and Good Luck Munich |
2006 | The Departed | Babel
Letters from Iwo Jima Little Miss Sunshine The Queen |
2007 | No Country for Old Men | Atonement
Juno Michael Clayton There Will Be Blood |
2008 | Slumdog Millionaire | The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon Milk The Reader |
2009 | The Hurt Locker | Avatar
The Blind Side District 9 An Education Inglourious Basterds Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire A Serious Man Up Up in the Air |
2010 | The King’s Speech | Black Swan
The Fighter Inception The Kids Are All Right 127 Hours The Social Network Toy Story 3 True Grit Winter’s Bone |
2011 | The Artist | The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close The Help Hugo Midnight in Paris Moneyball The Tree of Life War Horse |
2012 | Argo | Amour
Beasts of the Southern Wild Django Unchained Les Misérables Life of Pi Lincoln Silver Linings Playbook Zero Dark Thirty |
2013 | 12 Years a Slave | American Hustle
Captain Phillips Dallas Buyers Club Gravity Her Nebraska Philomena The Wolf of Wall Street |
2014 | Birdman or: (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) | American Sniper
Boyhood The Grand Budapest Hotel The Imitation Game Selma The Theory of Everything Whiplash |
2015 | Spotlight | The Big Short
Bridge of Spies Brooklyn Mad Max: Fury Road The Martian The Revenant Room |
2016 | Moonlight | Arrival
Fences Hacksaw Ridge Hell or High Water Hidden Figures La La Land Lion Manchester by the Sea |
2017 | The Shape of Water | Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour Dunkirk Get Out Lady Bird Phantom Thread The Post Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri |
2018 | Green Book | Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman Bohemian Rhapsody The Favourite Roma A Star Is Born Vice |
We always have the most information about this one over all the others, so it’s the least surprising, typically. Very rarely do we get anything other than a 50/50 tossup. The only year I can think where it was remotely in doubt and had a couple of contenders was 2015. Otherwise, you kinda know where it’s going.
The main precursor is the PGA, whose winner has gone on to win the Oscar all but nine times:
- 1992, The Crying Game wins the PGA, Unforgiven wins the Oscar.
- 1995, Apollo 13 wins the PGA, Braveheart wins the Oscar.
- 1998, Saving Private Ryan wins the PGA, Shakespeare in Love wins the Oscar.
- 2001, Moulin Rouge! wins the PGA, A Beautiful Mind wins the Oscar.
- 2004, The Aviator wins the PGA, Million Dollar Baby wins the Oscar.
- 2005, Brokeback Mountain wins the PGA, Crash wins the Oscar.
- 2006, Little Miss Sunshine wins the PGA, The Departed wins the Oscar.
- 2015, The Big Short wins the PGA, Spotlight wins the Oscar.
- 2016, La La Land wins the PGA, Moonlight wins the Oscar.
(Technically they were both right and wrong in 2013, as they had a tie. But one of the tied films won, so we’ll just consider that as being right and just a quirk.)
Then there’s BAFTA, who tends to do whatever they want, and generally won’t give you a winner when the PGA falters. But they will help confirm a likely choice. They’re 12/30 over that same PGA stretch, which is only 40%. The only winner they picked up that the PGA did not have was Shakespeare in Love in 1998. Otherwise they were just as wrong.
BFFCA, meanwhile, is 14/24 all-time, and also generally are about as wrong as all the others. The only three they picked up that nobody had were A Beautiful Mind in 2001, The Departed in 2006 and Spotlight in 2015.
Next is SAG Ensemble. I generally don’t look at them as a helpful precursor, but I did look to see how much of the PGA slack they picked up. Which is the same as BFCA — three times. Shakespeare in Love, Crash and Spotlight.
And finally, the Globes. They have two Best Picture categories, which generally allows them to hedge their bets and have two top contender and two chances to get it right. They’re 18/30 in the PGA era. Which is the most solid of anyone else, though still only 60%. They picked up A Beautiful Mind in 2001 and Moonlight in 2016 (though it should be noted that La La Land also won at the Globes, which is kind of a hedged bet by them).
So really all it means is, you have a lot of information, and when the PGA cross-lists with other things, you’ve probably got a winner. Otherwise, the others are not always gonna get it right. But also, use common sense. If something has a lot of wins, it’s probably a good alternate if you’re doubting the PGA.
Best Picture
1917
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
This category was exactly the category I was expecting and probably the best possible category we could have gotten. I’ve said from the start that I wasn’t crazy about Joker or Marriage Story as nominees, but I knew they were gonna be there and so I made peace with the fact that they were gonna be. The other seven nominees are all amazing and all in my top ten favorite films of the year, so I’m thrilled they all got on. I’d have been happier seeing Knives Out as a tenth nominee, though none of the precursors really had anything other than these nine films. Really the only question was whether or not there were gonna be nine nominees or just eight. And so when we got all nine, I was very pleased with the overall list.
Precursors:
- PGA: 1917
- BAFTA: 1917
- BFCA: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- SAG Ensemble: Parasite
- Globe (Drama): 1917
- Globe (Comedy): Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rankings:
9. Ford v Ferrari — Okay, so if we’re trying to reason how all the ballots are gonna look, it’s probably not the least likely to win, but… it’s got 4 nominations and everything else has 6, 10 or 11. It didn’t get a Director nomination, the rest of its nominations are all technical (Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing) and it’s got no precursors. Even if you think it’ll get more votes than something, it’s not a contender to win. So just leave it at the bottom and move on.
8. Marriage Story — No Directing nomination, no Editing nomination, no precursor win. Oh, and it’s Netflix. And remember last year when people made the big deal about not counting a Netflix movie as a ‘real’ movie? Do you really expect them to backtrack on that in just a year? And if they’re gonna do that, it’s not gonna be for this one. In the end, I suspect Ford v Ferrari will get more overall #3 and #4 votes than this will, though in the end I suspect it helps neither of them get very far in the voting process.
7. Little Women — I’d love to see it higher, but I can’t tell where the votes are coming from. It showed up late, and people love it, but not enough people, and not the right people. Six nominations, but no Director or Editing. And no precursor wins. It’s kind of an empty Best Picture nominee, even though it looks respectable. I just can’t see this being higher than #5 on most ballots. You think the old white dudes are gonna have this in the spot to catch stray votes? Or are they gonna have Ford v Ferrari and The Irishman? You know? The old people know this movie. They’ve seen it three other times before. That’s not a good sign for Best Picture votes, no matter how amazing it is.
6. Joker — It’s got everything, and it’s got the most nominations… but where are the wins coming from? It’s got probably two awards in the bag, but other than that, where are they rushing to vote for this? MAYBE in Makeup? Maybe? If they can overlook Bombshell and Judy? No one’s rushing to give this statues, and the lack of precursor wins basically tells you this is destined to go home with a modest number of wins but not seriously contend for either Picture or Director. I can’t make a case for this being #2 or #3 on enough ballots. Even if people loved this movie, it’s not going that high on enough ballots. Not with those top three there and these other two hanging around. I can’t see it any higher than sixth or fifth.
5. Jojo Rabbit — Yes, probably Joker should be higher. But they both got Editing nominations, and the Director nomination is fungible to me. Doesn’t really matter. To me, the thing that matters when looking at this… especially when you’re parsing stuff that has no precursors… is what movies have fervent support? Stuff like Joker, Marriage Story… people like it, people respect it, but it’s not gonna get a shit ton of rabid support. This feels like it could. Which is why I bumped it up to fifth. People really adore this movie. Of course, some really don’t. So that’ll hurt it and clearly won’t help it in the end to seriously contend. But I think this will get some serious votes. But honestly, wanna swap it with Joker? Be my guest. Not gonna matter in the end unless something utterly shocking comes down the pike.
4. The Irishman — Doesn’t this feel like such a distant fourth? I mean, Martin Scorsese movie with 10 nominations, you’d think it’s right there in contention. And it felt like it was gonna be before this all got started. But then it just won nothing. Zero precursors and basically the film is just kind of there. That’s kind of what Wolf of Wall Street did too. This one at least could win Visual Effects and possibly Editing to salvage a potential 0-10 situation, like what happened with Gangs of New York. But there’s no urgency to vote for this whatsoever. It’ll get the requisite Marty ‘respect’ votes, but I can’t see it happening. No precursors, no real smoke for this. Very distant fourth and just highlights how small a race this one turned out to be.
3. Parasite — On pure precursors, this is the third choice. All it has is SAG Ensemble. HOWEVER… when I’m looking at the potential for how ballots are gonna go, I’m not ruling out a possible surprise win by this. I don’t think it’s likely, but I think it’s possible. And in the end, I may have this as a second choice. We’ll see. I’ve got a few days to finalize those thoughts. But this isn’t a distant third by any means, and at least there is a precursor there to be had. Though it’s worth noting that only once did something win Best Picture with SAG Ensemble as its only precursor. And that was Crash. So just keep that in mind before you pick anything. But I do think there’s a case to be made for this.
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood — On paper, this is the second choice. It’s got BFCA and it’s got the Globe for Comedy. Which is the second most precursors. And A Beautiful Mind did win the Oscar with only those two same precursors. Though the only other time something had those two precursors opposite something that won the PGA and BAFTA was The Social Network. King’s Speech also had SAG, though, which 1917 doesn’t have. Still, it’s one of those… could happen, but no one thinks it probably will, situations. But it could! It’s kind of a three-horse race with one clear favorite. So you kind of have to play the odds and then hope for the best. Most people don’t do the Scorecard ballot, so for me, I’m set at the top, I just need to guess what’ll happen if #1 goes down. For most people, you’ve got a clear #1 choice and this should be an easy guess unless you really think an upset is coming through. In which case, that’s a rationalization that only you can do. Either way, this can only be second choice at best based on what we’ve seen.
1. 1917 — PGA win. BAFTA win. Globes win for Drama. Mendes won the DGA. It’s sure set up for this to win Picture and Director. Picture, Director, Cinematography and the two Sound categories. That’s 5, that’s a respectable number and that feels like a Best Picture winner when you go back and look at it. Can something beat it? Sure. But you’ve got three days to prepare your arguments for that. Until then any time something with the PGA and BAFTA, it’s the automatic favorite to win Best Picture.
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