Oscars 2021: BAFTA Longlists

Okay, so BAFTA has implemented this new thing where they announce longlists for all of their categories, basically telling you, “The category will be comprised from these 15 things.” Which is cool for people like me, who like to guess what’s gonna happen. And it’s just nice suspense. Like when they announce finalists for a prize or something. Rather than a vague notion of what feels like it has a chance, now you’ve got a list to react to. Sure, it makes things slightly easier for me, but it also makes things more fun an interesting for everyone. So I’m a fan.

Last year I remember we got shortlists and then the categories were all over the place in ways that turned some Oscar categories into pure chaos. I’m curious to see what happens this year from that. But, with the benefit of a handful of precursors, we should be able to start to hone what we think is gonna happen in most categories. So I’m curious to see what they’ve done.

What I also like about this is how, for every category, they clearly explain how the voting took place and what’s going to happen going forward. They say how many films were in consideration, what happened in each round of voting and how the rest of the voting is going to play out to get us the final category and winner. I like transparency.

Best Film

Being The Ricardos

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Dune

House of Gucci

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

No Time To Die

The French Dispatch

The Lost Daughter

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Tick… Tick…BOOM!

West Side Story

So basically this is a big ass list of every movie you’d expect to see near the top of a list of the best movies. It also says that last year was probably a bit of an aberration and overreaction to them being called out for racism. Or maybe this year really is just that thin and it’s the same movies for everyone. That one’s more of an ‘answered over time’ question. But, these are all basically the same movies everyone else had, save like two differences. No Time to Die is Bond, and that’s very much a BAFTA deal. And House of Gucci is there, because… I don’t know. Ridley? I guess? But if that’s the case, then where’s Last Duel? Guess they just liked it? I’d be pretty shocked if it made the final list anyway, but it’s still interesting that it got here and tells me that Gaga is almost assured a nomination at this point.

They’re gonna narrow this down to five, and until we know the five it’ll be hard to make any proclamations about anything. The obvious three here would be Belfast, Power of the Dog and West Side Story. Past that, they could go any which way based on what they liked most. I guess the Director longlist will help us out there, but so far this tells me that everything I’ve seen so far is still very much in play and it’ll just come down to numbers as to what makes the final 8-9.

 

Outstanding British Film

After Love

Ali & Ava

Belfast

Benediction

Boiling Point

The Colour Room

Cruella

Cyrano

The Duke

The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

Everybody’s Talking About Jamie

House of Gucci

The King’s Man

Last Night in Soho

Mothering Sunday

Munich: The Edge of War

No Time To Die

Operation Mincemeat

Passing

Spencer

Damn, that’s a big list. I can’t even begin to figure out how to pare that down. Some of these (King’s Man) are obviously not gonna make it while others (Belfast) are clearly going to. Best to just let them figure it out. They’re gonna nominate half of these anyway.

 

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

After Love

Boiling Point

Censor

Dying to Divorce

The Harder They Fall

Hostile

Keyboard Fantasies

Passing

The Power

Sweetheart

Honestly had no idea Jeymes Samuel was British, so that’s cool. Also, once again I am asking you to go see Boiling Point because it’s great.

 

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Janicza Bravo, Zola

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Audrey Diwan, Happening

Julia Ducournau, Titane

Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard

Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter

Rebecca Hall, Passing

Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

Sian Heder, CODA

Joanna Hogg, The Souvenir Part II

Aleem Khan, After Love

Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up

Kelly Reichardt, First Cow

Céline Sciamma, Petite Maman

Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God

Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Denis Villeneuve, Dune

Two things of note here: this category will have SIX nominees instead of five, and they specifically voted to ensure that the longlist would have ten male and ten female potential nominees. Which is cool. I actually like this system, because rather than just throwing on the dude who got the fourteenth most votes, they cut it off at ten, forced them to include ten women, and now with this list of 20, you still probably have the top people you’d have voted for anyway but now here are these women and films where you go, “Oh yeah, that was pretty good,” and maybe now you throw a vote somewhere else. I like this system a lot. Sometimes you see overcorrections for the sake of correction. This is forced inclusion in a way that just opens people’s minds a little bit and makes them consider a bit more than maybe they would have otherwise.

This system also tells me — the ten dudes that made it (since let’s face it, dudes are largely what comprise the Oscar list) are the ten they liked the best. So there’s no use trying to make a case for someone like Wes Anderson (who I sadly would have liked to have seen here), since he probably was the fourteenth-highest vote-getter. If he couldn’t make the top ten initially, I’m fine with putting women on there instead to potentially catch votes. It’s not like someone who didn’t vote for Wes the first time was suddenly gonna see him and go, “You know… I think I’ll add him.” But, you see Janicza Bravo and think, “I did like Zola, and did’t even consider that the first time.” So yeah, big fan of this system

Anyway, onto the rambling…

If I had to break that down into two tiers of ‘more likely to get nominated’ and ‘less likely to get nominated’ based on absolutely nothing except my own gut instincts, this is what I’d say:

More likely: Anderson, Branagh, Campion, Coen, Gyllenhaal, Hamaguchi, Reichardt, Sorrentino, Spielberg, Villeneuve

Less likely: Bravo, Diwan, Ducournau, Green, Hall, Heder, Hogg, Khan, McKay, Sciamma

But, it’s BAFTA. I expect a surprise or two here. Really what I’m looking out for is to see if Hamaguchi gets nominated. Because then that tells me for sure Drive My Car has the legs to win International Feature easily. And I wanna see if Reichardt gets nominated for a film from last year’s Oscar race. Because that also feels like a very BAFTA thing to do. My gut says to expect Branagh, Campion, Spielberg, probably Villeneuve and then two more, which could be any two. I’d definitely expect at least two women on the final list and one foreign at minimum. The interesting inclusions would be people like Sian Heder or Reinaldo Marcus Green, who have close to surefire Best Picture contenders but aren’t really in the Director conversation. So that could give them a boost (though unlikely, since you kinda know how gatekeep-y the Directors branch has been in recent years).

Based solely on the Picture longlist, I expect Paul Thomas Anderson, Maggie Gyllenhaal and Joel Coen to be the favorites for those final spots, but I’m also not gonna rule out someone like Celine Sciamma, Julia Ducournau or even Paolo Sorrentino. There are options here, and with the wealth of choices and six nominees instead of five, we’ll get a good idea of what BAFTA liked most this year. Which is really what you want out of an awards show.

 

Best Actor

Riz Ahmed, Encounter

Adeel Akhtar, Ali & Ava

Mahershala Ali, Swan Song

Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Daniel Craig, No Time To Die

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up

Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

Adam Driver, House of Gucci

Andrew Garfield, Tick… Tick…BOOM!

Stephen Graham, Boiling Point

Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza

Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon

Will Smith, King Richard

Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Riz Ahmed. Jeez. People actually know that movie exists? I wonder if he got on purely because he’s Riz Ahmed. I’m not opposed to it necessarily, but I am curious.

The interesting note in how this voting went was that the top 12 vote-getters automatically got nominated and the final 3 were picked by the jury, which looked at the next 10 most-voted nominees and voted for what they thought should be there. And I’m real curious how that voting went. If they looked more toward inclusion or more toward, “Wow, no one voted for Javier Bardem, should we add him?” It doesn’t really matter, since if you have a big voting body, the top 12 is a pretty inclusive list. I’m just curious, logistics-wise, how that went. Also, there are gonna be six nominees here, which will be the case in every acting category.

Also, with six nominees, you’re pretty much gonna see your entire Oscar hopefuls list play out, with the only question being whether or not they give you two of the nominees for that fifth spot or none or what. Cumberbatch, Smith, Denzel and Garfield all seem assured nominations here. I might say they’ll leave Will off, but with the film doing well on the longlists, I think he’s fine even if that happens.

So it’s then two spots. Ali, Bardem and Dinklage are all here and all factor in heavily. I expect Daniel Craig to get one of the spots just because of his time as Bond, but maybe they won’t. Driver only gets on if they loved House of Gucci, which I don’t anticipate but am not ruling out. Graham makes a lot of sense as a nominee and I wanna see if enough people saw it to vote for him. Leo, Joaquin or Cooper Hoffman would surprise me, but they’re not out of the realm of possibility. Really this is gonna come down to how much this helps us with what we know so far past the obvious four. I don’t think any of the four get hurt by being left off this final category, so it’s really just waiting to see how they help us on that final spot.

 

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

Jennifer Hudson, Respect

Emilia Jones, CODA

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up

Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World

Claire Rushbrook, Ali & Ava

Joanna Scanlan, After Love

Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Tessa Thompson, Passing

Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

This is a full smorgasbord of who the major contenders in this category are. The only people who, if they get nominated here, don’t help us with Oscar guesses are Renate Reinsve (as much as I’d love to see it), Claire Rushbrook, Joanna Scanlan and Tessa Thompson. Even Jennifer Lawrence means something if they nominate her. Frances is the other one I want to see. Because if they nominate her, it’s hard, with the role, the film, her stature and the fact that Denzel is gonna get nominated, to not consider her for that final spot.

Right now, the pace setters are Chastain, Colman, Gaga and Kidman. The five who can gain the most ground with a nomination here are Haim, Hudson, Jones, Stewart and Zegler. The two who could really use it are Stewart and Zegler. Stewart is the one where, if I don’t see it here, I’m gonna be resigned to the fact that it probably won’t happen for her this year, but I do expect to see her. Zegler, if I see her get on, I’m gonna think she will for sure be nominated, just because it was her first film and I wonder how that might have worked with SAG (a lot of first-timers and foreign nominees never make SAG because it is, as I always say, a popularity contest).

I’m not sure I could hang my hat on Jones getting nominated if she gets on here. Haim is 50/50 but I’d lean toward probably not, but I’d also have to see how the rest of the category shakes out (she’s another one where SAG wasn’t really a guarantee given her lack of prior work) and how I think the film is gonna do with overall support. If Hudson gets on then I’ll have to take a long, hard look at whether I think she’s got a shot at it (but with the two largest actual voting bodies voting for her, you’d almost have to include her and wait for them to leave her off). For me, the three wild cards here are McDormand, Stewart and Zegler. Those are the three that raise the most eyebrows if they get nominated. Everyone else I can work with. Though I will say, if Gaga gets left off here, despite the clear support all over these longlists for that movie and six nominees, that’s a major red flag for me.

 

Best Supporting Actor

David Alvarez, West Side Story

Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

Benicio del Toro, The French Dispatch

Jamie Dornan, Belfast

Ciarán Hinds, Belfast

Mike Faist, West Side Story

Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Jared Leto, House of Gucci

Woody Norman, C’mon C’mon

Al Pacino, House of Gucci

Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up

J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

This is basically the set of performances you’re seeing everywhere, plus some obvious additions based on film and/or stature. The major takeaway for me seeing this list is, “So French Dispatch is longlisted for Picture, and you put Del Toro here, which means it wasn’t just a respect thing… and yet Wes couldn’t get a Director shout?” I thought the work here was actually better than Grand Budapest, and he got nominated for Grand Budapest. Just saying.

Right now, Smit-McPhee and Kotsur are the only two to hit everything, so they’re the clubhouse leaders. Leto, Dornan and Hinds have two precursors each, so getting on here would greatly increase their chances. J.K. Simmons and Bradley Coper both have one precursor, so they, too, would be greatly helped by a nomination here. The only person left out thus far is Ben Affleck, who got SAG and Globe noms and wasn’t even longlisted here (and the film was eligible, so that argument is out).

In terms of people that have nothing thus far — the only ones who can gain any kind of traction with a nomination… it might just be the West Side Story guys, Alvarez and Faist. Garfield’s gonna get nominated elsewhere (though good on them for recognizing the work. He is very good in that movie), Del Toro has no Oscar shot, Woody Norman is too young and would have needed to come along with Phoenix or the film (which clearly won’t happen), Pacino you’d have seen other precursors to anticipate it possibly happening, Rylance doesn’t move the needle (as great as he is), and Plemons… I don’t think there’s enough to that role to think they’d double up. If he gets nominated here, then maybe I’ll consider it. Until then, can’t see that going down.

So that tells me it’s, again, a pretty straightforward category and is just gonna come down to which five it ends up being. The people to really watch for here are Cooper, Dornan, Hinds and Simmons. With six nominees, you should see at least two of these four, if not three. Smit-McPhee is set regardless (and should get nominated here anyway). Kotsur can afford to miss out here, but also probably won’t. Leto, if he misses, I’m gonna think twice about it, but that’s also gonna depend on what they do nominate. I think Dornan and Hinds need nominations here to be truly considered likely (and both being UK actors, I expect both to get nominated, Hinds more so). Cooper, if he gets on, might almost assure him a nomination. And if Simmons gets on, you gotta look twice at him as a contender, even though I’m not sure it actually happens. But we have seven contenders and should be able to get four pretty easily. So it’s not so bad.

 

Best Supporting Actress

Caitríona Balfe, Belfast

Cate Blanchett, Don’t Look Up

Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

Ana de Armas, No Time To Die

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Ann Dowd, Mass

Judi Dench, Belfast

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Rita Moreno, West Side Story

Ruth Negga, Passing

Vinette Robinson, Boiling Point

Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up

Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho

Please, and I cannot stress this enough, nominate Vinette Robinson. I know she’s got no shot anywhere but here, but for god’s sake, guys, you have six spots. Put her on. She’s so damn good in that movie. Okay, off the soapbox.

This category’s been pretty straightforward all along. There have only been five people who’ve gotten the majority of the nominations (outside of a few stragglers catching one here and there): Balfe, DeBose, Dunst, Ellis and Negga. So you go into this assuming that’s your category unless BAFTA throws a molotov into the fray. Even so, the only person that can truly be hurt by missing out here is Aunjanue Ellis. So once she gets on, I think your category is basically locked at that point.

The only other people with precursors are Rita Moreno (BFCA), Ann Dowd (BFCA) and Cate Blanchett (SAG, but for a completely different movie). And knowing that Ann Dowd has no shot because no one saw her movie and that Blanchett only got SAG because it’s a popularity contest, Moreno is the only person who gets real traction with a nomination. Ana de Armas, while great in No Time to Die, won’t make me think she has a chance if they nominate her. Kathryn Hunter I doubt can catch enough votes even with a nom here. Meryl I think is just there because she’s Meryl. Anya Taylor-Joy has no shot. Even Judi… it’s not 2002. I don’t think even with a BAFTA nomination I can consider her anything more than a dark horse.

The only person I’m gonna get that sly twinkle about if I see them get nominated (that, “You know… that’s not a bad sleeper pick” look), is Jessie Buckley. I haven’t watched the movie yet, so I’ll have a much better idea after I do, but just on paper she feels like someone who could so easily sneak right in there with Olivia Colman in a… well, coincidentally enough in a Maggie Gyllenhaal situation from Crazy Heart. Though I guess the better comp is Laura Dern from Wild. Keep an eye out for that, and if all that ends up somehow happening, just know that you heard it here first on January 12th. Odds are against it, of course, but that’s why I do what I do. To try to telegraph surprises and make it so we can all go, “Yeah, that was a possibility,” and seem all smart because we at least acknowledged it ahead of time even if we didn’t guess it.

But yeah, I think the only major domino here is if they leave Ellis off. Past that, I think we’ve got our five, and Moreno is the only person who can gain any ground (maybe Judi, but that would only be because of how thin the field really is past the obvious five). So, once more, with six nominees in this category, I again say: just nominate Vinette Robinson, guys. She deserves it.

Best Original Screenplay

After Love

Being The Ricardos

Belfast

The Card Counter

C’mon C’mon

Don’t Look Up

The Duke

The French Dispatch

The Hand of God

King Richard

Last Night in Soho

Licorice Pizza

Parallel Mothers

Petite Maman

The Worst Person in the World

Yup. All the scripts with precursors got on here. No real surprises. We gotta wait for the guild on this to know for sure. This could go any number of ways from completely helpful to absolutely unhelpful. Too early to tell on this one. The most likely Oscar category at this point is Being the Ricardos, Belfast, Don’t Look Up, King Richard and Licorice Pizza. Looking at this list and depending on what the guild does, the only scripts I can see gaining any sort of ground with nominations here and/or at the guild are Card Counter, C’mon C’mon and Hand of God. Otherwise it feels like a pretty solid five.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

CODA

Cyrano

Drive My Car

Dune

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

The Green Knight

House of Gucci

The Last Duel

The Lost Daughter

No Time To Die

Passing

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Tick… Tick…BOOM!

West Side Story

All the obvious choices are here. CODA, Dune, Lost Daughter, Power of the Dog and West Side Story all got nominated at BFCA (and Power of the Dog hit the Globes too). The guild is gonna tell the tale here. I’m not sure Cyrano gets help without a guild nomination. Drive My Car I can’t see happening even if it gets on here. Gucci would surprise the shit out of me and really only tell me how much they liked the movie (which does have a ripple effect once you move to the Academy at large). Tick Tick Boom can get some traction if it gets on here (and especially at the guild). Last Duel needs the guild more than anything but this would be a big help if they go there. Tragedy of Macbeth… 50/50. Gotta see how everything looks before I can decide. But also, it’s a Coen brother. They love nominating them. So yeah, wait on the guild but anticipate the big five being the major players.

 

Best Editing

Belfast

Don’t Look Up

Dune

The French Dispatch

The Hand of God

House of Gucci

Last Night in Soho

Licorice Pizza

The Lost Daughter

No Time To Die

The Power of the Dog

Summer of Soul (Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

Tick… Tick…BOOM!

Titane

West Side Story

It’s Editing, which is more tied to Best Picture than anything else, so there’s no point in even considering anything here until we see the nominees (and the guild). The only intriguing films on this longlist are Hand of God, Summer of Soul and Titane. I wanna see if any of those get nominated here (and if Hand of God especially gets into those major categories like Director). Otherwise, we’re in wait and see mode until the guild announcesand we have a final five.

 

Best Cinematography

Belfast

C’mon C’mon

Cyrano

Don’t Look Up

Dune

The French Dispatch

House of Gucci

The Last Duel

Last Night in Soho

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

No Time To Die

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

Well this is a lot of good choices. Right now all we have is the BFCA list (Belfast, Dune, Nightmare Alley, Power of the Dog, Tragedy of Macbeth and West Side Story, all of which are here), so we pretty much have to wait on the guild and what this category ends up being to know more. Mostly it’s gonna be the guild. Cinematography has been an overall great category the past decade, so I feel like no matter what happens we’re gonna end up with good choices.

 

Best Original Score

Being The Ricardos

Don’t Look Up

Dune

The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

The French Dispatch

The Green Knight

The Harder They Fall

King Richard

The Last Duel

Last Night in Soho

The Lost Daughter

Nightmare Alley

No Time To Die

The Power of the Dog

Spencer

11/15 of the Oscar shortlist is represented here, with the four outliers being Candyman, Encanto, Parallel Mothers, and The Tragedy of Macbeth. All of those make total sense to me, honestly, and would be the four I’d probably have assumed would get left off. This is gonna come down to which ones they do nominate.

Dune and Power of the Dog are the only two scores with two precursors thus far (and if they get on here, they’re automatic guesses). Don’t Look Up, French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley and Spencer all have one precursor (as does Encanto, but that’s gonna stay at one). So obviously a nomination here could only help them. This is all a wait and see scenario. They could just as easily not help us at all, with the amount of scores here. We gotta wait for them to nominate five.

 

Best Production Design

Being The Ricardos

Belfast

Cruella

Cyrano

Dune

The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

The French Dispatch

House of Gucci

The Last Duel

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

No Time To Die

The Power of the Dog

The Tragedy of Macbeth

West Side Story

No shortlist here. All we have is the BFCA list, which was Belfast, Dune, French Dispatch, Nightmare Alley and West Side Story, all of which are here. These are all solid choices and we pretty much need to wait to see what they nominate and what the guild nominates before we can know anything about what’s gonna happen here. But honestly, looking at this… all solid choices to be had.

 

Best Costume Design

Being The Ricardos

Belfast

Cruella

Cyrano

Dune

The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

The French Dispatch

House of Gucci

Last Night in Soho

Licorice Pizza

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

Spencer

West Side Story

We don’t have a shortlist for this category and the guild hasn’t announced yet, so the only other help we have so far are the BFCA nominees, which were Cruella, Dune, House of Gucci, Nightmare Alley and West Side Story, all of which are represented here. Every movie here on this longlist belongs here, so it’s gonna come down to which five they choose, and then once we have the guild we should be able to narrow this one down fairly easily (though Costumes is historically always a crap shoot).

 

Best Makeup & Hair

Being the Ricardos

Coming 2 America

Cruella

Cyrano

Don’t Look Up

Dune

The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

The Eyes of Tammy Faye

The French Dispatch

House of Gucci

The King’s Man

The Last Duel

Last Night in Soho

No Time To Die

West Side Story

Nightmare Alley and Suicide Squad are the only two shortlisted films to not make it on here. Suicide Squad wasn’t nominated here the first time and won the Oscar, so that doesn’t mean a whole lot. And Nightmare Alley I wouldn’t expect to make the final category, so that’s also not all that surprising.

We’ve got the guild already and BFCA, so it’s just gonna come down to what they nominate. The major players here are gonna be Coming 2 America, Cruella, Cyrano, Dune, Eyes of Tammy Faye. West Side Story gets a huge boost by being included. Cyrano needs this to be seriously considered. House of Gucci… I still don’t know. If they don’t include it then I feel confident voting against it. But even if it is, I still feel like it could be left off. So we’ll see. There’s a lot of permutations here. Seeing the five they pick will tell us a lot.

 

Best Visual Effects

Black Widow

Cruella

Don’t Look Up

Dune

Eternals

Free Guy

The French Dispatch

Ghostbusters: Afterlife

The King’s Man

Last Night in Soho

The Matrix Resurrections

No Time To Die

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

The Suicide Squad

Venom: Let There Be Carnage

You entire Oscar shortlist is represented here except Godzilla vs. Kong and Spider-Man, which they announced wasn’t eligible for BAFTA because of some shit (I think they didn’t screen it. Honestly it doesn’t matter, because it wasn’t gonna get nominated anywhere except Sound or here anyway). No real surprise there. Skull Island got nominated without BAFTA so I’m not ruling that out based on an exclusion here. But without a BFCA nomination either, it’ll have to do strongly at the guild for me to see it definitely getting on.

This is all gonna be predicated on what the guild does anyway. Because it’s hard to think that Dune and Matrix won’t get nominated regardless. And then No Time to Die is very much in that conversation (though historically unlikely). Then you gotta figure out what to do with the four Marvel movies that are up there….

You gotta wait for the guild. There’s too much to figure. Though seeing this now does make me wonder what BFCA was seeing with Nightmare Alley (or if they just reflexively voted for it because it’s Guillermo).

 

Best Sound

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Dune

The French Dispatch

Ghostbusters: Afterlife

The Harder They Fall

The Last Duel

Last Night in Soho

The Matrix Resurrections

No Time To Die

The Power of the Dog

A Quiet Place Part II

Tick… Tick…BOOM!

West Side Story

Your entire Oscar Sound shortlist is here except Spider-Man. So really it’ll just come down to which five they choose, and how that cross lists with the two sound guilds. The fact that everything managed to get on here tells me the only thing that matters is what gets nominated.

 

Best Animated Film

Encanto

Flee

Luca

The Mitchells vs the Machines

Raya and the Last Dragon

Ron’s Gone Wrong

Sing 2

They’re only gonna nominate four movies from this list. So basically, if somehow Sing 2 or Ron’s Gone Wrong can make it on, then we recalibrate what we expect. Otherwise, pretty much any combination of four only enhances my thinking in the category. The most telling outcome would be the three Disney/Pixar movies and Flee (or even Mitchells, but more so Flee), since then only intrigue in the category this year will be whether or not they’re gonna nominate all three of the Disney movies, and then you’ll have BAFTA basically saying ‘yeah, we liked all three of these the best’. Gonna get real interesting around these parts over the next month.

 

Best Foreign Language Film

A Hero

Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn

Compartment No. 6

Drive My Car

Flee

The Hand of God

I’m Your Man

Lamb

The Most Beautiful Boy in the World

Parallel Mothers

Paris, 13th District

Petite Maman

Riders of Justice

Titane

The Worst Person in the World

8 of these 15 films are shortlisted for the Oscar: A Hero, Compartment No. 6, Drive My Car, Flee, The Hand of God, I’m Your Man, Lamb and The Worst Person in the World. They’re only gonna nominate five, so really it just comes down to which five they pick. Those 8 are really the only films that matter here, even though I fucking loved Riders of Justice and would love to see them nominate that.

I have to imagine that Drive My Car, Hand of God and Titane all stand good chances, given their shortlisting in Director. But a lot of this list is filmmaker heavy (Almodovar, Sciamma, Audiard, Farhadi), so it will be interesting to see where they go.

Biggest takeaway from this list: if Compartment No. 6, Flee, I’m Your Man, Lamb or The Worst Person in the World get nominated, then I will way more seriously consider them for the final category (maybe less so Lamb, but I don’t really expect to see that get nominated). Because if they, without having that major director and against all those higher profile movies, can get nominated, that means they have support. That carries a lot of weight.

 

Best Documentary

14 Peaks: Nothing Is Impossible

Becoming Cousteau

Billie Eilish: The World’s A Little Blurry

Cow

Flee

JFK Revisited: Through The Looking Glass

Lady Boss: The Jackie Collins Story

The Lost Leonardo

The Most Beautiful Boy in the World

The Real Charlie Chaplin

The Rescue

The Sparks Brothers

Summer of Soul (Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

Tina

The Velvet Underground

The only shortlisted docs here are Billie Eilish, Flee, The Rescue, Summer of Soul and Velvet Underground. So they’re really the only ones that matter for guessing the Oscars. I assume Summer of Soul and Flee will for sure make it regardless of what happens here, but the other three can definitely make me feel better about their chances if they get on.

 

Best Casting

After Love

Belfast

Boiling Point

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Dune

The Hand of God

House of Gucci

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

The Lost Daughter

Passing

The Power of the Dog

tick tick…BOOM!

West Side Story

I think you have to nominate West Side Story and Belfast above anything else. Licorice Pizza and King Richard also deserve spots as well. Tick Tick Boom, Don’t Look Now, Power of the Dog, Passing, House of Gucci and Dune… they’re all star-heavy at the top. So basically you’re congratulating them on casting recognizable people. CODA would be nice to see, as would Boiling Point. Hand of God also would be a great choice as well. Honestly, the main two really are the ones that need to be here. And probably King Richard. I can even maybe be okay without Licorice Pizza on the final list. As long as they hit those three, I’m fine with whatever way they wanna go past that.

 

Best British Short Film

The Black Cop

Three Meetings of the Extraordinary Committee

Femme

The Palace

Play It Safe

Rough

Roy

Stuffed

Punch-Drunk

The Tunnel

I don’t believe any of these are shortlisted at the Oscars, so I bid them all good luck and a hearty congratulations.

 

Best British Short Animation

Affairs of the Art

Do Not Feed The Pigeons

A Film About A Pudding

Homebird

Night of the Living Dread

Robin Robin

Affairs of the Art and Robin Robin are both shortlisted, and both are quintessentially British, so I’m not sure them getting nominated carries much weight (though them not being nominated might).

– – – – –

So those are the BAFTA longlists. I basically just spent all this time talking about what it would mean based on what could get nominated a month from now. And you guys are worried about never hearing from me again. Where else do I have the space to ramble on about this crap and actually have people listen?

Other news… I’m still working on seeing the last of the stuff I missed from the end of the year (the main three being Tender Bar, Lost Daughter and Tragedy of Macbeth, all of which I’ll have seen by the end of the week. And Cyrano I’ll see whenever it comes out in theaters), as well as finalizing stuff for my own personal lists and from the shortlists (currently working through about 130 film scores, finishing up watching all the shortlisted documentaries and about to start the International Feature shortlist, followed by the doc shorts and live action shorts. So the quicker I can get all that watched, the quicker I can post about it. Otherwise, it’s pretty light for the next ten days, only like two guilds are announcing, and then we get like 8 guilds announcing in a four day span at the end of the month before BAFTA nominations. So barring me getting the lists ready, it’s gonna be fairly quiet here for the next ten to twelve days.

– – – – – – – – –

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