Oscars 2022: PGA / DGA / SAG / CDG / MU+HS Guild Nominations

More precursors.

I’m doing my best to stay caught up here, but I’ll be honest, I’m probably not even gonna be actively putting any real thought into categories until it comes time to pick the nominees in… *checks imaginary watch* … nine days. So this is mostly just to have all the stuff in one place for when that happens.

I’m also gonna be traveling for the next week, which is either gonna be great for me catching up or the worst possible thing ever. Guess we’ll find out!

P.S. My Top Ten list is basically done (I’m down to like five movies left to see that might make any impact on it, and I don’t think any of them would make the top ten, so I can just add those as I see them). Now I just need to find the time to write the damn thing up. Which may not happen until after Oscar nominations.

We’ll start with the PGA, since this is ostensibly the primary list we’ll be using to look at Best Picture.

PGA Nominees

Best Picture

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Tale

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

The Whale

So, if I remember correctly, the Academy fully moved back to 10 set nominees for the year. Which means everything on this list is in play. None of that ‘not enough people will vote for it #1 to make it hit the threshold’ stuff.

And based on what I’ve seen throughout this year, I’d expect at least seven of these to make it on no problem. Avatar, Banshees, Elvis, Everything Everywhere, Fabelmans, Tár and Top Gun all seem like locks. On a set list of ten, I don’t see how any of them don’t make it.

That leaves Black Panther, Glass Onion and The Whale as the ones you gotta think about. Black Panther… I wonder if the reaction to that among voters is as strong as it was for the first one. I wouldn’t rule out a nomination, but I’m also not looking at that as a full on lock at the moment. Glass Onion I’m thinking is more likely not going to be nominated. Screenplay seems like the category there, like the first one. And The Whale is 50/50. I’m thinking more likely than not, but you never know with these voters. It seems like it could be divisive. But if I’m betting today, I say it makes it on.

I’d be looking at probably one of the foreign films for one of those last spots, either RRR or All Quiet on the Western Front. I’m not sure something like Triangle of Sadness has the legs to make Picture, unless BAFTA goes all in on it. Aftersun is an interesting one. That could sneak on as the darling indie (remember Winter’s Bone?) for the year. You also can’t fully rule out The Woman King or Women Talking. But that’s the usual ‘end of the list’ stuff. You’re only ever about 7 or 8 deep in terms of being confident and then you’re just hoping those last two work out.

Right now, if you asked me to put down the list I’d want to have if I were guessing (and this is based solely on nothing but my own experience and what I can remember seeing from the minimal work I’ve done on all of this), I’d say:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

The Whale

Alternate: Babylon

Dark Horse: Aftersun

Surprise: RRR, Women Talking

Shocker: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Tale, The Woman King, Triangle of Sadness

Maybe I’m forgetting something. But that’ll come when I actually sit down and think about all of this for real. But I’d imagine your full field is among these nominees.

 

Best Animated Feature

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Minions: The Rise of Gru

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Turning Red

This is just to have for Best Animated Feature. I think by now we all fully expect four of these to make it in, with probably Wendell & Wild the fifth choice over Minions (since we know the Academy tends to like stop-motion, whereas the PGA is much more ‘studio/mainstream’ based. So no big surprises here.

 

Best Documentary Feature

All That Breathes

Descendant

Fire of Love

Navalny

Nothing Compares

Retrograde

The Territory

I haven’t even begun to think about Documentary Feature yet, so this is just a placeholder for me. I think, if I remember correctly, six of these are shortlisted, so that’ll be somewhat helpful for me later on.

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And now the DGA. Sight unseen, I can tell you that, based on history, only four of these are gonna get nominated and one of them will be left off. There’s some insane number of years where that’s happened. So let’s see if it’s obvious who the outlier is gonna be.

DGA Nominees

Todd Field, Tár

Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick

Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Oh, well yeah, that is obvious. It’s Kosinski. Spielberg, McDonagh, Field and the Daniels should all make it on no problem. Which means your fifth spot will either be a foreign nominee like it’s been in previous years, Baz Luhrmann, or maybe they sneak James Cameron on (though that would surprise me a bit). I’m gonna look to see where BAFTA goes before I make any decisions, but I fully expect Kosinski to not make that final list.

Also… gonna be real interesting to see who starts winning these awards after nominations are out.

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And now SAG. Three major ones today. Picture, Director, acting. The trifecta.

SAG Nominees

Best Ensemble

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Women Talking

This all tracks. No real bad nominee in the bunch, and they probably could have had five more legitimate choices here to boot.

I think it’s been established how little stock I put into this award as an Oscar precursor, so mostly I’m just happy for everyone nominated.

 

Best Actor

Austin Butler, Elvis

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Bill Nighy, Living

Adam Sandler, Hustle

Sandler. Okay then. I did think he was great here, but I am always surprised when a voting body like SAG picks a performance like that, when no one else seems to have even acknowledged the film existing.

I’ve been saying with increasing regularity the past couple of years how much of a popularity contest SAG has become, and how much less of a harbinger of an impending Oscar win it is. And I suspect that will only continue this year, though that’s more about who wins than it is here. We all know (at least I hope we do) how to spot the obvious ‘SAG nominee that has zero chance of actually getting nominated’, and that’s really all we need to be doing at the moment.

I think we all realize Sandler has no chance here, but these other four have been mainstays throughout the other places. Which leaves 4 locks and the 5th spot open. The Globes, I believe, had Hugh Jackman. But I’m not sure his film has any traction at all and don’t think he’s a serious contender. Paul Mescal’s been getting raves for Aftersun, but I’m not sure, unless BAFTA is fully all in on him, he’s a guaranteed lock. Cruise has been getting raves, but I think he needed SAG to be taken fully seriously. I’m not sure the acting branch is gonna nominate him. But what’s interesting is how there’s no real consensus for that fifth spot. Which means I’m gonna be looking for that Antonio Banderas type person to come in and get that spot. Which… in another year, that might have been Bill Nighy. But he seems like a given here. Felix Kammerer is an intriguing one for me, but part of me thinks he’s too young to actually make some noise. I’d probably go with Mescal over him if you asked me right now to pick a category.

 

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Tár

Viola Davis, The Woman King

Ana de Armas, Blonde

Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

At first glance, this sure seems like a final category, huh? But then you realize there’s almost no way they’re gonna leave Michelle Williams off. Which means that, sadly, Danielle Deadwyler is the likely exclusion there. I’m not sure even a BAFTA nomination can save her on that one. But we’ll see. I’m also never gonna fully rule out Margot Robbie, just because of how much they like her, but given how she missed here and wasn’t longlisted at BAFTA, I’m not sure she’s someone you can guess (though the Babylon exclusion here hurts her chances less than people might think. I’ve seen SAG reject films entirely before, only to see multiple performances end up nominated in the end. So don’t put too much stock in that). But we’ve certainly got a pretty set list of contenders here, so it’s really just a matter of who they leave off (and oh boy, the reaction that’ll happen if it’s Michelle Yeoh).

 

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

The good news about this category is that we go in knowing with absolute certainty who three of the five nominees will be. I’m not sure Dano gets it in the end, as nice as it would be to see. He feels like one of those SAG nominees the Academy leaves off. That’s just a hunch. Pitt seems like someone who will likely make it, though you never know. Redmayne has hit like every precursor and/or shortlist at this point, but the entire time I haven’t seen him as a legitimate contender. In a boring year, yes. But have people really seen that film enough to vote for him? I have questions. I want to see if BAFTA actually nominates him.

For now, I think your category is Gleeson, Keoghan, Quan, Pitt and then either Redmayne or Dano. And personally, I’d trust Spielberg over a film guaranteed to get zero other nominations, but that’s just me. I also wouldn’t fully rule out Judd Hirsch, even though he’s literally only got one scene in the movie. This is the body that voted for Judi Dench last year despite very little screen time in Belfast, over Caitriona Balfe, who clearly was the supporting performance to nominate there. We know how the Oscars love a veteran.

 

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau, The Whale

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Thank god Stephanie Hsu made it on here. I still don’t fully believe they’re gonna nominate her, but I sure hope they do. Also thrilled for Hong Chau, who absolutely deserves a nomination this year.

Trying to think about the totality of this one — Bassett, Chau, Condon, Curtis, Hsu, Janelle Monáe. That’s pretty much it, right? Dolly De Leon got a Globe nomination, as did Carey Mulligan, and BAFTA could enhance them into ‘legitimate contender’ status. Other than that, where are we looking? Sadie Sink out of nowhere for The Whale? I doubt it. I’d be looking to see who from The Fabelmans they could sneak on as well. But there’s really no one there. I’d be rooting for Li Jun Li, but that’s me.

This one seems pretty straightforward, but I’m still looking for that fifth spot to see what they do. I think three of these (Bassett, Condon and Curtis) seem pretty set, with Chau likely and then the fifth spot open. But again, we’ll see. The Supporting categories tend to be the ones where some stuff goes down. We’ll have to monitor it.

 

Best Stunt Ensemble

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Top Gun: Maverick

The Woman King

Cool. Always happy when stunt people get their flowers.

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TV

Best Ensemble in a Drama Series

Better Call Saul

The Crown

Ozark

Severance

The White Lotus

These all feel like obvious choices.

 

Best Actor in a Drama Series

Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul

Jason Bateman, Ozark

Jeff Bridges, The Old Man

Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul

Adam Scott, Severance

They’re gonna give it to Bridges, aren’t they?

 

Best Actress in a Drama Series

Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus

Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown

Julia Garner, Ozark

Laura Linney, Ozark

Zendaya, Euphoria

Is it Coolidge or do they go Zendaya?

 

Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series

Abbott Elementary

Barry

The Bear

Hacks

Only Murders in the Building

Oh, this will be interesting. Do they go for trend, for the culture or for what they all really liked?

 

Best Actor in a Comedy Series

Anthony Carrigan, Barry

Bill Hader, Barry

Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building

Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building

Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

I assume White, but I’m not ruling out Hader either.

 

Best Actress in a Comedy Series

Christina Applegate, Dead to Me

Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary

Jenna Ortega, Wednesday

Jean Smart, Hacks

I imagine this will also be Quinta in a landslide, but I always wonder with them.

 

Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Steve Carell, The Patient

Taron Egerton, Black Bird

Sam Elliott, 1883

Paul Walter Hauser, Black Bird

Evan Peters, Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

Peters, right? Isn’t that the SAG thing?

 

Best Actress in a Miniseries or TV Movie

Emily Blunt, The English

Jessica Chastain, George & Tammy

Julia Garner, Inventing Anna

Niecy Nash-Betts, Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

Amanda Seyfried, The Dropout

I’d imagine Seyfried, but knowing SAG, this will either be Niecy Nash or, randomly, Emily Blunt.

 

Best TV Stunt Ensemble

Andor

The Boys

House of the Dragon

The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power

Stranger Things

Cool.

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Okay, now for the hardcore guild stuff. AKA the more interesting stuff to talk about, because we’re fully in the weeds on everything, and that’s where the Oscars get fun.

 

CDG Nominees

Period Film

Babylon

Don’t Worry Darling

Elvis

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

The Woman King

Solid nominees, also would make a good category in and of itself. Even though I know at least one nominee is gonna come from this next category.

 

Sci-Fi / Fantasy Film

Avatar: The Way of Water

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Hocus Pocus 2

Thor: Love and Thunder

Oh wow. Only the one. Just Black Panther. The rest don’t really have a shot. But for the guild, good category.

 

Contemporary Film

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Nope

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Women Talking

Glass Onion makes me wonder if it can break the ‘no contemporary Costume nominees’ curse. It’s rare. La La Land technically was contemporary, but that also had the musical/fantasy elements there that sort of made it not. And then before that, I think the last truly contemporary nominee was Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert. So this will be interesting. Those costumes were memorable, but I think, barring a BAFTA nomination, it’s an uphill climb.

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Makeup & Hairstylist Guild Nominees

Best Period and/or Character Makeup

Amsterdam

Babylon

Blonde

Elvis

Till

Till is the only one not shortlisted, so that’s pretty standard stuff.

Best Contemporary Makeup

The Batman

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Menu

Nope

Spirited

The Batman is the only shortlisted film here.

Best Special Makeup Effects

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

The Whale

Matilda is the only non-shortlisted film.

 

Best Period and/or Character Hairstyling

Amsterdam

Babylon

Blonde

Elvis

The Woman King

The Woman King is the only non-shortlisted film.

 

Best Contemporary Hairstyling

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

The Menu

The Batman and Black Panther are shortlisted.

So, where does that leave us? Barring what BAFTA does (and 9/10 shortlisted films are on their shortlist), if I were guessing a category right now, here’s what I’d say:

Babylon

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

The Whale

Alternate: Blonde

Dark Horse: All Quiet on the Western Front

Surprise: Amsterdam, Emancipation

Shocker: Crimes of the Future

That one seems really straightforward, honestly. Maybe Blonde gets on and kicks something else off. But The Batman and The Whale have the character makeup that they love. Elvis seems really obvious. Babylon has so much stuff going on it’s hard to imagine they leave that off. So that leaves Black Panther vs. Blonde. And unless they are fully rejecting Black Panther out of nowhere, I think we’ve got an obvious category to guess.

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Okay, that’s all I have for now.

The Critics Choice awards are on tomorrow night. They’re announcing the VES nominations sometime this week and then BAFTA nominations are on Thursday. I’ll probably do one article for all of those and then be fully working on my Oscar guesses and stuff for the 24th. Which also includes all the shortlisted stuff, which I haven’t even begun to watch yet. I’m telling you, guys. I’m so far behind this year.

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