Oscars 2022: The Shortlists

It’s shortlist time, folks.

These shortlists articles have become one of my favorite things to write up during the Oscar season. What’s funny about it is how we used to have almost all of these shortlists (Live Action Short, Animated Short, Documentary Feature, Documentary Short, International Feature, Visual Effects and Makeup & Hairstyling), plus we had the full list of eligible animated features and the full list of eligible scores and songs. All they did was add Score, Song and Sound to the list and drop them all at once and now all of a sudden Shortlist Day feels like a party. And I’m here for that party.

Anyway, what we do here is go through all the shortlists, try to watch everything, become more educated about what’s up for all the categories and do the work to make life easier for when I inevitably try to guess what’s gonna get nominated in all the categories. It’s a good time. Let’s go.

We’ll start with Best Animated Feature. Technically the only list that’s not a shortlist. But it’s essentially a shortlist, because every single year you can look at the full list of eligibles and narrow it down to about 8 films that have any kind of a chance (and it never goes past that 8).

There are 27 films eligible this year. And let’s see how quickly you can spot the 8.

Best Animated Feature

Apollo 10½ : A Space Age Childhood
The Bad Guys
The Bob’s Burgers Movie
Charlotte
DC League of Super-Pets
Drifting Home
Eternal Spring
Goodbye, Don Glees!
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Inu-Oh
Lamya’s Poem
Lightyear
Little Nicholas, Happy as Can Be
Luck
Mad God
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Minions: The Rise of Gru
My Father’s Dragon
New Gods: Yang Jian
Oink
Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Run, Tiger Run!
The Sea Beast
Strange World
Turning Red
Wendell & Wild

To begin, currently I have seen 22 of the 27 films. Here they are, ranked in terms of how much I enjoyed them:

  1. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
  2. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
  3. Mad God
  4. Turning Red
  5. Lightyear
  6. Wendell & Wild
  7. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
  8. My Father’s Dragon
  9. Apollo 10½ : A Space Age Childhood
  10. Charlotte
  11. Strange World
  12. Goodbye, Don Glees!
  13. Luck
  14. Drifting Home
  15. The Sea Beast
  16. The Bob’s Burgers Movie
  17. The Bad Guys
  18. Minions: The Rise of Gru
  19. Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank
  20. DC League of Super-Pets
  21. New Gods: Yang Jian

I still need to find and see Eternal Spring, Lamya’s Poem, Little Nicholas, Oink and Run Tiger Run. Not a bad start, though, considering how disconnected I’ve been.

If I’m picking the category I’d like to see… Marcel the Shell, Pinocchio and Mad God are automatic. And then I’d probably put Turning Red on as fourth. After that… it’s tough. Everything else is flawed. So I guess I’ll go Wendell & Wild, just because of the stop-motion artistry there. I don’t need to see Pixar nominated again. And Puss in Boots was fun, but I don’t need to see that on either. So let’s go 4/5 stop-motion. That would be pretty awesome.

In terms of what has a chance to be nominated — I’m gonna do this very quickly, since I think we all understand how this works by now. You can spot the obvious ones yourself. It’s not difficult.

Here’s all 27 films, broken down into the tiers of where they fit for a nomination:

Not Gonna Happen: The Bob’s Burgers Movie, D.C. League of Super-Pets, Drifting Home, Goodbye Don Glees, New Gods: Yang Jian, Oink, Paws of Fury, Run Tiger Run

Very Unlikely: Charlotte, Eternal Spring, Lamya’s Poem, Little Nicholas, Luck, Minions: The Rise of Gru

In Contention: Apollo 10½, The Bad Guys, Inu-Oh, My Father’s Dragon, The Sea Beast, Strange World

Most Likely Nominees: Lightyear, Mad God, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Pinocchio, Puss in Boots, Turning Red, Wendell & Wild

That’s basically your list, with maybe a swap or two here and there. You’re not going past those first two tiers for nominees. You just aren’t. Like most years, you’re really not going past eight real contenders, with maybe two you can force on as possible long shots. But again, knowing this branch, you know how they’re gonna vote.

Marcel the Shell and Pinocchio are clearly on, and of the three Disney/Pixar films, it’s Turning Red. Strange World got no traction at all and Lightyear feels like it’s underperforming, awards-wise. So you’ve got three to start. Puss in Boots has performed so strongly, I’m not sure you wanna vote against it here, especially since the first one got nominated (and in that 2011 year where they left things like Tintin off). Past that — how do you not guess Wendell & Wild? Mad God and Inu-Oh feel like reaches, based on what I’ve seen. My Father’s Dragon never got any momentum. The Bad Guys I’d need to see get a BAFTA nomination before I had any faith in that. I think we’ve got a pretty straightforward category this year. What’s the worst that’s gonna happen? They’ll get a second Pixar movie on? That’s unlike them (usually I’m arguing against that happening), but that’s about as crazy as I can see for this one.

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Turning Red

Wendell & Wild

Alternate: Lightyear

Dark Horse: Strange World

Surprise: Mad God, My Father’s Dragon, Inu-Oh

Shocker: The Bad GuysThe Sea Beast, Minions: The Rise of Gru

Don’t Guess: Anything else.

I’m sure I will have a final word on this by the time nominations-guessing comes around, since I haven’t really delved into the Annie nominations at all. But I’m not sure my guesses are gonna change all that much here. I think we’ve got a pretty set list and an obvious alternate if one of them gets left off.

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Best Animated Short

Black Slide

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

The Debutante

The Flying Sailor

The Garbage Man

Ice Merchants

It’s Nice in Here

More Than I Want to Remember

My Year of Dicks

New Moon

An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

Passenger

Save Ralph

Sierra

Steakhouse

I still have to watch these. Between what’s online and the Animation Showcase, I think I can probably manage to watch most of these fairly soon. But I’m not gonna pretend like I know anything about these at all. So we’ll just leave this here and move along for now. Maybe I come back and update this, maybe I save all my discussion for the nominations article. We’ll see how it goes.

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Best Documentary Feature

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Bad Axe

Children of the Mist

Descendant

Fire of Love

Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song

Hidden Letters

A House Made of Splinters

The Janes

Last Flight Home

Moonage Daydream

Navalny

Retrograde

The Territory

I also know nothing about this. I’ve watched Moonage Daydream and I at least am aware of what The Janes is about. Past that — aside from Leonard Cohen, I have no goddamn clue what any of these are and they’re all gonna be new to me when I watch them. I think I have at least half this list. I’ll probably watch most of them within the week and hopefully have some sort of opinion for when it comes time to guess nominees.

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Best Documentary Short

American Justice on Trial: People vs. Newton

Anastasia

Angola Do You Hear Us? Voices from a Plantation Prison

As Far as They Can Run

The Elephant Whisperers

The Flagmakers

Happiness Is £4 Million

Haulout

Holding Moses

How Do You Measure a Year?

The Martha Mitchell Effect

Nuisance Bear

Shut Up and Paint

Stranger at the Gate

38 at the Garden

I do have copies of most of these. I think I’m missing American Justice on Trial, How Do You Measure a Year and one other one. I know Happiness is £4 Million is online, so that I can watch. But there’s another one I don’t have. Maybe it’s As Far as They Can Run. But I’ll watch all these within the week and have an opinion next week when I guess.

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Best Live Action Short

All in Favor

Almost Home

An Irish Goodbye

Ivalu

Le Pupille

The Lone Wolf

Nakam

Night Ride

Plastic Killer

The Red Suitcase

The Right Words

Sideral

The Treatment

Tula

Warsha

This is the one category — I think I have like four of these, maybe? So I’m gonna be going in almost completely cold on this one, unless I can somehow get a hold of like seven of these within the next six days. But it is what it is. You can only do what you can do.

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Best International Feature

Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)

Corsage (Austria)

Close (Belgium)

Return to Seoul (Cambodia)

Holy Spider (Denmark)

Saint Omer (France)

All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

Last Film Show (India)

The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Mexico)

The Blue Caftan (Morocco)

Joyland (Pakistan)

EO (Poland)

Decision to Leave (South Korea)

Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden)

As of right now, I’ve only seen All Quiet and Bardo. I have copies of Argentina 1985, Corsage, Holy Spider, Last Film Show, The Quiet Girl and Decision to Leave. The rest I have to find. I can probably still guess the likely category without having seen any of them, but we’ll save that for a minute.

In the meantime, here’s how each country has fared since we’ve had shortlists:

  • Argentina — 7 nominations in 49 submissions (1974, 1984, 1985 (won), 1998, 2001, 2008 (won) and 2014). Every time they’ve been shortlisted since 2006, they’ve been nominated
  • Austria — 4 nominations in 46 submissions (1986, 2007 (won), 2008 and 2012 (won), and they were also shortlisted last year.
  • Belgium — 7 nominations in 47 submissions (1970, 1988, 1992, 1994, 2000, 2011, 2013), and they were also shortlisted in 2015 and last year.
  • Cambodia — 1 nomination in 11 submissions (2013). They’ve only been shortlisted once previously and got nominated from it.
  • Denmark — 14 nominations and 4 wins (including 2010 and 2020) in 60 submissions. Since shortlists began in 2006, this is their eleventh appearance. They’ve been nominated 8 out of 10 times, and have 7 times since 2010.
  • France — 41 nominations and 12 wins (3 honorary) in 70 submissions. This is their 8th shortlist since 2006. They’ve got 4 nominations during that time, and haven’t won this category since 1992.
  • Germany — 20 nominations in 66 submissions, with 3 wins (1979, 2002, 2006). This is their 11th shortlist since 2006. They’ve been nominate 5 times with the 1 win in 2006. It’s also worth noting that all of their nominations since 2006 have been from high profile films (such as this one).
  • India — 3 nominations in 55 submissions (1957, 1988, 2001). This is their first shortlist.
  • Ireland — This is their second shortlist in 9 submissions. They’ve never been nominated.
  • Mexico — They’ve got 9 nominations in 55 submissions and 1 win (Roma in 2018). This is their 7th shortlist since 2006. Three of the others were Pan’s Labyrinth, Biutiful and Roma, and Inarritu’s been nominated twice before.
  • Morocco — This is their second shortlist (2011 was the other) in 18 submissions. They’ve never been nominated.
  • Pakistani — This is their first shortlist in 11 submissions.
  • Poland — 12 nominations in 54 submissions with 1 win (2013). They’ve been shortlisted 5 other times since 2006 and have been nominated every time.
  • South Korea — They’ve got 1 nomination and 1 win (Parasite) in 34 submissions. They’ve made 2 other shortlists, both within the past 5 years.
  • Sweden — 16 nominations in 62 submissions with 3 wins (1960, 1961, 1983. All Bergman). This is their 6th shortlist since 2006. They’ve been nominated twice the previous five times (2016, 2017).

I’m thinking your most likely category is:

All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)

Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Mexico)

The Blue Caftan (Morocco)

Decision to Leave (South Korea)

Alternate: The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

Dark Horse: Close (Belgium)

Surprise: Holy Spider (Denmark), Joyland (Pakistan)

Shocker: Saint Omer (France), Return to Seoul (Cambodia)

Don’t Guess: EO (Poland), Last Film Show (India), Corsage (Austria), Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden)

I put a random one in there at #5, because that always seems to happen. Otherwise this is either gonna be one of the easiest categories to guess or one of the most difficult because crazy stuff is gonna happen. Once I get more educated on this I’ll have more of an opinion on it.

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Best Makeup & Hairstyling

All Quiet on the Western Front

Amsterdam

Babylon

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Blonde

Crimes of the Future

Elvis

Emancipation

The Whale

Sight unseen, I could have told you how this one was gonna go:

Babylon

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

The Whale

Alternate: Blonde

Dark Horse: All Quiet on the Western Front

Surprise: Amsterdam, Crimes of the Future

Shocker: Emancipation

This is pretty much a top 7 situation. No real surprises here, I wouldn’t suspect.

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Best Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Moonage Daydream

Top Gun: Maverick

These are all solid choices. The Northman could’ve made it on here. Thirteen Lives also.

Based on this — I can’t see Moonage Daydream or Pinocchio making it on. Avatar and Top Gun are locks. And probably All Quiet too, though that could go either way. Babylon should make it. Even before precursors, we can pretty much reason our way through most of this.

This is how I’m looking at it right now:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Elvis

Top Gun: Maverick

Alternate: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Dark Horse: Babylon

Surprise: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Pinocchio

Shocker: Moonage Daydream

I’m not totally certain these will be the 5, but they sure seem like the obvious five, based on the two sound guilds. BAFTA will tell us a lot. But these five seem like the safest bets at the moment.

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Best Visual Effects

We’ll begin with the longlist:

  • All Quiet on the Western Front
  • Avatar: The Way of Water
  • Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
  • The Batman
  • Black Adam
  • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
  • Devotion
  • Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
  • Elvis
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once
  • Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
  • Good Night Oppy
  • The Gray Man
  • Jurassic World: Dominion
  • Gigi & Nate
  • Nope
  • RRR
  • Thirteen Lives
  • Thor: Love and Thunder
  • Top Gun: Maverick

Just looking at this, before I look at the shortlist — Avatar, Batman, Black Panther, Doctor Strange, Jurassic World and Top Gun are guaranteed to make it on. That’s six right there. Which probably means Thor gets left off, since I doubt they go 3/3 on Marvel. Plus the effects there were the most iffy of the three films. Thirteen Lives… doubtful, but possible. They like Ron Howard, so it’s entirely possible. RRR… the effects branch doesn’t overlook iffy effects just because they liked the movie. They’re more likely to nominate a dog shit movie if the effects are good. So I doubt that makes it. Nope… maybe. Gigi & Nate, not happening. Gray Man… too much for them. Good Night Oppy, I don’t know what the effects are, so I guess it could. Oh, Fantastic Beasts… that can probably sneak on a shortlist, even though it won’t make the final category. Everything Everywhere I imagine should make it too. So those are probably 7 and 8. Elvis, no. Devotion… two plane movies? Doubtful. Black Adam, not a chance. And All Quiet… I can see that over the others.

So, before I scroll down and look, my guesses for the ten are All Quiet, Avatar, Batman, Black Panther, Doctor Strange, Everything Everywhere, Fantastic Beasts, Jurassic World, Top Gun, and… one more… I guess because I don’t know what it is, I’ll say Good Night Oppy (note: I have since watched it. I get why they longlisted it).

Anyway, here’s the actual shortlist:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore

Jurassic World: Dominion

Nope

Thirteen Lives

Top Gun: Maverick

Okay, so no Everything Everywhere (insane) and no Oppy. But Thirteen Lives gets on. Which is fine by me. And Nope gets on. Also okay. But Everything Everywhere’s effects are probably in the top three of most memorable effects this year. But I also know this category is basically just ‘best CGI’ nowadays, and they don’t seem to respect movies that do amazing effects practically and cheaply. So I guess I’m not too surprised it got left off. Also, Bardo’s effects are so hugely underrated, that deserved to at least make the shortlist. But I also know that we’re in the ‘most’ effects over ‘best’ effects era, so I’m not too surprised about that one.

Anyway, looking at this list, I can basically just guess the category right now:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Top Gun: Maverick

Alternate: The Batman

Dark Horse: Nope

Surprise: Jurassic World: Dominion, Thirteen Lives

Shocker: Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumledore

I wanna see which way the guild and BAFTA goes, but I can be almost certain they’ll get three of those on. They’ll probably nominate Black Panther this time because they know Avatar is gonna win this in a cake walk. Top Gun will also get on, no problem. That’s three. Those are automatic and no one’s not gonna guess those. The rest is gonna be figuring out which of the other obvious three are gonna make it. Because none of the Fantastic Beasts or Jurassic World movies made it on, so why would they randomly put on the third entries that were critically reviled? Thirteen Lives — not really a CGI fest, and the film doesn’t really have any other awards traction. Can’t see it. Nope — I can’t see it either. BAFTA didn’t longlist it, so I have no faith in that. Which leaves your three obvious contenders — All Quiet, Doctor Strange and The Batman. You’re picking two of the three. The category should almost certainly be 5 of those 6 films.

The positives for All Quiet — critically beloved, almost certain to get an International Feature nomination, an outside shot at a Best Picture nomination, and war effects have been getting nominated in recent years. The negatives — not really a CGI fest, and Dunkirk did get left off. So it could go either way. The positives for The Batman — critically beloved, highly-thought-of, Matt Reeves’ team has been nominated a bunch (Planet of the Apes). The negative: more practical than CGI. They tend to like CGI here as of late. Doctor Strange — first one got nominated, a lot of trippy visual effects, feels like something that would get on even if people might not think it will based on the critical acclaim of the alternatives (remember The Lone Ranger? Snow White and the Huntsman?). Negatives — already a Marvel movie likely getting on (though maybe Black Panther isn’t such a lock. First one didn’t get nominated), and Marvel’s effects team has been… shall we say… under fire in recent years.

I’m leaving The Batman off right now just to make people realize how much of a contender Doctor Strange is. I don’t actually think I would guess the category I have up there if I were gonna have to do that today, but I did want to make the point. VES and BAFTA are gonna be the final word here later this week. You’ll know where things are trending after those two announce.

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Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Devotion

Don’t Worry Darling

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Nope

She Said

The Woman King

Women Talking

I’m in the process of finalizing my scores list now. I’ve done an initial listen (165 scores to start, currently have 65 left, with 25 making the final list). 12 of these 15 have made the cut for me (Don’t Worry Darling, Nope and The Woman King weren’t for me). But I’ll finalize all that hopefully this week.

As for figuring out who’s gonna get nominated here, here are the composers of all the scores:

  • All Quiet on the Western Front — Volker Bertelmann. AKA Hauschka. Previously nominated for Lion and previously shortlisted for Ammonite.
  • Avatar: The Way of Water — Simon Franglen. Never shortlisted, however he has worked with Cameron on previous films (he produced “My Heart Will Go On” and composed “I See You”).
  • Babylon — Justin Hurwitz. Two wins (La La Land, Score and Song) and a shortlist for First Man.
  • The Banshees of Inisherin — Carter Burwell. Only two nominations throughout his career, though the most recent was for Three Billboards. He’s been shortlisted twice already, for Ballad of Buster Scruggs and Tragedy of Macbeth.
  • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — Ludwig Göransson. Previous won for the first Black Panther and was also shortlisted for Tenet.
  • Devotion — Chanda Dancy. Newcomer. Never nominated or shortlisted.
  • Don’t Worry Darling — John Powell. Only nominated once, for How to Train Your Dragon. Never shortlisted.
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once — Son Lux. Never nominated, never shortlisted.
  • The Fabelmans — John Williams. I think we know the drill with him at this point. He gets nominated every time he makes a score. Just guess him and move along.
  • Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery — Nathan Johnson. Never nominated, never shortlisted (the first Knives Out was ineligible, and they ignored Nightmare Alley last year).
  • Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio — Alexandre Desplat. Surprisingly he hasn’t been nominated since 2019, despite 8 nominations last decade. He has been shortlisted every year there’s been one, though.
  • Nope — Michael Abels. Previously shortlisted for Us. Never nominated.
  • She Said — Nicholas Britell. Three nominations (Moonlight, Beale Street, Don’t Look Up), plus three shortlists (he only missed in 2020, when he didn’t have a credit).
  • The Woman King — Terence Blanchard. Two nominations in his two shortlists, both for Spike Lee joints (BlacKkKlansman and Da 5 Bloods).
  • Women Talking — Hildur Guonadottir. Previously won for Joker. That was her only shortlist (and this is her first score since then, along with Tár).

I hate that I can see how they shortlist. You can see which of these composers/scores are here for diversity reasons. Not that they’re bad scores, and not that these composers aren’t deserving. I can just see them forcing this when I know they’re not going to nominate these scores. I started tweaking to it when they nominated that one random movie no one had ever heard of a few years ago. And the only reason I could figure why it was nominated is because the composer was a woman. And again — admirable. But don’t telegraph that you have a template for how you nominate. It’s like… what was it, the Critics Choice TV Awards? Where you could see every category clearly had a token spot for a network show, and things of that sort.

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

The Fabelmans

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Women Talking

Alternate: Avatar: The Way of Water

Dark Horse: All Quiet on the Western Front

Surprise: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Woman King

Shocker: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, She Said

Don’t Guess: Devotion, Don’t Worry Darling, Nope

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Best Original Song

“Time,” from Amsterdam

“Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength),” from Avatar: The Way of Water

“Lift Me Up,” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

“This Is a Life,” from Everything Everywhere All at Once

“Ciao Papa,” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

“Til You’re Home,” from A Man Called Otto

“Naatu Naatu,” from RRR

“My Mind and Me,” from Selena Gomez: My Mind & Me

“Good Afternoon,” from Spirited

“Applause,” from Tell It Like a Woman

“Stand Up,” from Till

“Hold My Hand,” from Top Gun: Maverick

“Dust & Ash,” from The Voice of Dust and Ash

“Carolina,” from Where the Crawdads Sing

“New Body Rhumba,” from White Noise

I’m gonna be doing my whole Song eligibles article separately, but even without not listening to most of these, I can still pretty much tell you the category.

There are only two precursors here, and they’re flimsy at best, even though they’ve been good in recent years. “Naatu Naatu,” “Carolina,” “Ciao Papa,” “Hold My Hand” and “Lift Me Up” all got nominated by both (BFCA also nominated “New Body Rhumba”). Which, normally you’d say that’s your category right there, those five. But hold up there.

We’ve got not only Diane Warren in the mix here… and we all know that Diane Warren in Song is like John Williams in Score — it’s happening. Just guess her and hope maybe they don’t do it. But she was nominated for Four Good Days last year — does anyone know what that movie even is? So yeah, she’s on. And J. Ralph is also there. Remember, he’s got three previous nominations that seemingly came out of nowhere, for Chasing Ice, Racing Extinction and Jim: The James Foley Story. So he’s also someone you have to take very seriously.

Which basically means — probably put those two on and take people off. Taylor Swift is the obvious first castoff. They’re not at the point of nominating her for awards. Not for a movie nobody saw. There are people who have the profile to power a song on. She’s not one of them. The Globes have been nominating her for years. They didn’t even nominate her for fucking Cats. It’s not happening. I’d be really surprised if it did. The other one… that’s questionable. I can see “Naatu Naatu” getting left off as easily as I can see Rihanna getting left off. I’m gonna lean toward Rihanna getting left off just because I don’t know how they feel about her. But the first film got a song nominated, so I imagine the name can power that along. Plus she’s sort of elevated her stature. It’s like Beyoncé. Ten years ago she’d never have gotten nominated. But last year she did. And it was for a high profile film that got like six nominations. And what’s Wakanda Forever gonna get? Probably like 5 or 6 nominations. Maybe Picture, Supporting Actress, Visual Effects, Costumes, maybe Makeup, maybe Score. It’s all in that mix.

Anyway, point is — you have six clear contenders here and it’s just a matter of what or who they leave off. You’ll have to do your own calculus on this one before guessing.

“Applause,” from Tell It Like a Woman

“Ciao Papa,” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

“Dust & Ash,” from The Voice of Dust and Ash

“Hold My Hand,” from Top Gun: Maverick

“Naatu Naatu,” from RRR

Alternate: “Lift Me Up,” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Dark Horse: “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength),” from Avatar: The Way of Water

Surprise: “Carolina,” from Where the Crawdads Sing; “Stand Up,” from Till

Shocker: “New Body Rhumba,” from White Noise; “This Is a Life,” from Everything Everywhere All at Once; “Til You’re Home,” from A Man Called Otto

Don’t Guess: “Good Afternoon,” from Spirited; “My Mind and Me,” from Selena Gomez: My Mind & Me; “Time,” from Amsterdam

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And now BAFTA too. Took so long for me to actually look at this article that BAFTA’s almost ready to announce. So I’m appending them to the bottom of these, since technically they are also shortlists.

BAFTA Longlists

Best Film

Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Living
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness

Not a bad film in the bunch. I suspect the final five will be Banshees, Everything Everywhere, Fabelmans, Top Gun and one other, depending on which way their tastes lie this year (I imagine Aftersun, but we’ll see). It’s hard to imagine a bad category based on this list.

Outstanding British Film

Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Blue Jean
Brian And Charles
Emily
Empire of Light
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Lady Chatterley’s Lover
Living
The Lost King
Mrs Harris Goes To Paris
Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical
See How They Run
The Swimmers
The Wonder

Some good stuff here. I’m wondering what the overlap is gonna be. I hope they manage to get a nice diverse list between the two categories rather than having a lot of repeats.

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Aftersun
Blue Jean
Donna
Electric Malady
Emily
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Nothing Compares
Rebellion
See How They Run
Wayfinder

Aftersun will win this in a walk, and that’s okay. Emily was quite solid as well and I hope they nominate it. I also really liked Leo Grande and See How They Run.

Best Director

Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Corsage
Decision To Leave
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Fire of Love
The Quiet Girl
Saint Omer
She Said
Tár
Till
Top Gun: Maverick
The Woman King
Women Talking

No Triangle of Sadness. I thought they might try to sneak that on, en route to a surprise Picture or Director nomination. Also interesting that Spielberg wasn’t longlisted. Curious to see which five they choose. I suspect McDonagh, Wells, Field, the Daniels and one other, probably one of the foreign language ones.

Best Leading Actor

Austin Butler, Elvis
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Harris Dickinson, Triangle of Sadness
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kaluuya, Nope
Felix Kammerer, All Quiet on the Western Front
Daryl McCormack, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living

Sure seems like this year is just gonna be about Butler, Cruise, Fraser, Farrell, Mescal and Nighy, with Cruise probably the one left off in the end. But we’ll see. I’m keeping an eye out for Kammerer. He’s the only one that could sneak in that Oscar list with the right push.

Best Leading Actress

Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance With Somebody
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Lesley Manville, Mrs Harris Goes To Paris
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once

Blanchett, de Armas, Davis, Deadwyler, Williams and Yeoh. That’s the bunch I’m seeing as the primary contenders so far. I suspect that either Deadwyler or Yeoh gets left off in the end, but again, we’ll see. They’ve had some interesting lists the past two years.

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Tom Hanks, Elvis
Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Albrecht Schuch, All Quiet on the Western Front
Micheal Ward, Empire of Light
Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

Seems like Gleeson, Keoghan, Pitt, Quan and Redmayne as the primary Oscar frontrunners so far. I’m not convinced that’s the category just yet, though. But I also don’t know how much they’re gonna help if they nominate someone outside that category. So we’ll just take it as it comes. (What if Tom Hanks gets nominated? What will we all do then?)

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Lashana Lynch, The Woman King
Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Emma Thompson, Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical
Aimee Lou Wood, Living

Bassett, Chau, Condon, Curtis, Monáe, with maybe Lynch or Mulligan (but I’m not so sure about them). These seem like who’s gonna go forward with this.  Justice for Stephanie Hsu. Also keeping an eye out for Dolly De Leon as a surprise nominee.

Best Original Screenplay

Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Decision To Leave
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
The Menu
Tár
Triangle of Sadness

Good category. I haven’t even begun to think about these yet. I’m curious what the WGA does. They have some good choices this year. I have no idea what BAFTA’s gonna do, but looking at this… Banshees, Everything Everywhere, Fabelmans, Tár and one more as your final category. Aftersun will probably get on here, and they’ll probably leave Fabelmans off in favor or something else like Triangle of Sadness and/or Decision to Leave, but the Oscars won’t. So I’m curious how that fifth spot will go. I need to see what WGA does, because I’m fully out of the Screenplay loop this year.

Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Living
The Quiet Girl
She Said
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
Women Talking
The Wonder

Well, I can guess the majority of the Oscar category right now. But there’s still some interesting twists that can happen (some of which I’m starting to see develop). So I wanna see what WGA does.

But, just so it’s documented — All Quiet, Glass Onion, The Whale, Women Talking, +1. There’s still some maneuverability there too. But it feels pretty straightforward. Shouldn’t be too difficult to guess once all the precursors are in.

Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Batman
Empire of Light
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Tár
Women Talking
The Wonder

All of these are good choices. Not overly crazy about The Wonder, but I don’t think they’re gonna nominate it. All Quiet, Babylon, Banshees, Everything Everywhere, Glass Onion, Pinocchio and Women Talking are all shortlisted. So those are the only 7 that help us guess the category. But I will say… some of the exclusions here do make me feel more strongly about what I’m expecting the final category to be.

Best Editing

Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Decision To Leave
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Moonage Daydream
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness

Great choices here. Impossible to have a bad category. But Everything Everywhere above all else deserves a nomination. The rest I wouldn’t lose sleep over if they got left off.

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Athena
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Batman
Elvis
Empire of Light
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick

Batman, Babylon and Top Gun are the three that I hope get nominated. The rest (except Athena, which I’ve not seen), all look lovely and I’d have no real issues with them. But those first three in particular (with Banshees fourth) I hope make it on.

Best Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Batman
Elvis
Empire of Light
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Absolutely terrific choices here. Also, this is the first Avatar sighting on these longlists. They just did not go in for that movie, huh? That’s interesting (not that I expected it to do well at the Oscars past the tech categories anyway). But it’s funny how the first one was this sensation, nominated for awards, and this one… just kinda there.

 

Best Costume Design

All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Corsage
Elvis
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Mrs Harris Goes To Paris
Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical

Babylon, Black Panther and Elvis will walk onto this category. Mrs. Harris deserves a nomination too. Curious to see if Glass Onion can sneak on as a contemporary nominee (which — in case this isn’t clear, I’m talking about the eventual Oscar category for all of these. I can care less what BAFTA itself does).

Best Make Up & Hair

All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Blonde
Elvis
Emancipation
Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical
The Whale

The entire Oscar shortlist is on here except Crimes of the Future. So what they choose should tell us a lot. Though does anyone not think The Whale wins this in a landslide come Oscar night?

Best Special Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange In The Multiverse Of Madness
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Jurassic World Dominion
Top Gun: Maverick

Close to the exact Oscar shortlist. The Oscars left off Everything Everywhere and Pinocchio in favor of Thirteen Lives and Nope, otherwise all the obvious ones are there. BAFTA Visual Effects is always the place to find that nominee you wouldn’t expect to make it on but does. Look out for a Doctor Strange or something here that doesn’t appear anywhere else to make the final category.

Best Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Batman
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Tár
Thirteen Lives
Top Gun: Maverick

Very close to the Oscar list. I suspect we’ll have a pretty uniform set of nominees this year (especially since I can’t imagine at least three of these getting left off).

Best Animated Film

The Amazing Maurice
The Bad Guys
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Lightyear
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Minions: The Rise of Gru
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red

I think they only nominate three here (sometimes 4 in a tie situation). So I fully expect to see Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell and Turning Red, with maybe Puss in Boots or Lightyear sneaking on. If I see Bad Guys, that’ll raise an eyebrow. Otherwise I think this will just be standard fare.

Best Film Not in the English Language

All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Close
Corsage
Decision To Leave
EO
Holy Spider
The Quiet Girl
RRR

They got all the major ones here. No surprises. Curious to see what they leave off, though.

Best Documentary

All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
A Bunch Of Amateurs
Fire of Love
The Ghost of Richard Harris
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song
Louis Armstrong’s Black & Blues
McEnroe
Moonage Daydream
Navalny

A fair amount of shortlisted ones on here, plus a few quintessentially British ones. Makes sense. But I haven’t even looked at these yet, so I know literally next to nothing past the titles of these.

Best Casting

Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Living
Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical
Tár
Triangle of Sadness

Cool.

Best British Short Film

The Ballad Of Olive Morris
Bazigaga
Bus Girl
A Drifting Up
A Fox in the Night
An Irish Goodbye
Little Berlin
Love Languages
Too Rough
WanderLand

Only one shortlisted film. So this won’t be too helpful for us this year.

Best British Short Animation

Beware of Trains
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Christopher at Sea
Middle Watch
Salvation Has No Name
Your Mountain is Waiting

One of these is shortlisted. And it’s the one I suspect will muscle its way onto the category regardless. So not much help.

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