And the Nominees Are (2022)

This is so weird. Oscar nominations morning has been and is always appointment viewing for me. And this year, I almost didn’t even watch them live. I turned on the livestream seconds before it started. And rather than spend the morning poring over everything as I usually do, we’re almost 12 hours later and only now am I actually putting any thought into them, past my initial reactions texting with people as they happened. Weird times, this year.

Anyway, let’s go over all the nominations that were announced this morning. I remember only openly going “oh wow” once during all the names, and past that there was only one minor surprise (and not even so much a surprise as much as a slight eyebrow raise of ‘oh, you guys actually watched that movie/went there’ more than a ‘I didn’t see that coming’). Otherwise, most of this year felt chalk.

Put it this way — I listened to the Documentary and Shorts categories get announced and did just about as well as I do every year and I literally didn’t watch any of them before I guessed. So yeah, it’s a weird year (and apparently I’m just really good at this).

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin


Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans


Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

I believe I had most of that. I did say I didn’t think Black Panther or The Whale would make it on and I did say I think Triangle of Sadness was a potential Dark Horse. Eight of these most people should have had cold. It was a pretty easy list. It’s always those last two. And I figured on Women Talking. That made too much sense to not guess. So in the end, I got 9/10 and my Dark Horse made it on.

It was clear after the BAFTA omission that Aftersun wasn’t going anywhere. So it really came down to The Whale, Triangle of Sadness, Babylon and Black Panther for that final spot. And The Whale felt like the strongest on paper choice, and part of me still did potentially see that happening, but seeing how the Academy has voted in recent years, it feels insane to me to not have had Triangle of Sadness right there. So I feel great about all of this. Everybody misses one. I’m just glad the one I missed was one I did see as something right there.

Off to a good start.


Best Director

Todd Field, Tár

Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

This was an easy 4/5. You knew McDonagh, Spielberg, the Daniels and Field. You knew they were locked. It was really just that last spot. And Östlund had more cache built up than Berger. You also knew it was gonna be a foreign nominee. I said that all along. You’d have known if it was gonna be Cameron or Luhrmann. We’re 5 years in a row now with a foreign Director nominee. This is the 60s all over again. Östlund was my First Alternate and I just had Berger instead because at least his Picture nominee was a given, whereas Östlund’s was only possible. So no real surprises here for anyone truly paying attention to how these things have gone and how the year’s gone thus far.

Also a thrilling category because I legitimately don’t know how they’re gonna vote for this. Is Spielberg gonna get a third? Are the Daniels actually gonna win for this? I have no idea at the moment and that’s exciting as hell.


Best Actor

Austin Butler, Elvis

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Bill Nighy, Living

Everybody should have had 4/5 or 5/5 here. There were no other choices. If it wasn’t Mescal, who could it have been? There was literally no one on the horizon or even in a well-performing film you could have thrown on. My Dark Horse was Tom fucking Cruise. The idea that he had a legitimate shot (which he did, based on the year) is nuts. This was an easy one. All chalk.


Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Tár

Ana de Armas, Blonde

Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Andrea Riseborough is the big surprise this year. No one saw that coming (except Ed Norton, apparently). Honestly, I’m thrilled for her. I love Viola Davis, but I don’t need to see Viola Davis get another empty nomination where it’s clear she’ll never win. The fact that she got left off is the ultimate sign they didn’t think of that movie as anything more than an action film. It sucks, but to think positively — I’m very happy for Andrea Riseborough. She’s been so great for so long, it’s nice to see her get her flowers. We have one of those people in every category, and it’s really great to see.

As for the logistics of it all — I did say Michelle Williams was gonna get on, didn’t I? You never bet against Spielberg there. Plus, we know they love Michelle Williams. Danielle Deadwyler is not yet someone they’re gonna toss on an Actress list. Not with that film being basically ignored everywhere else. She’ll get there. After two years of the performances she’s had, I am fully confident she will be nominated within the next five years at this rate. So don’t worry about that. But Michelle Williams was the clear better choice there.

That said, I went 4/5, which would have been what I went if Deadwyler got on instead of Williams. I didn’t think it would be Riseborough over Viola Davis, but here we are. And honestly — kinda more excited about this category because of that. I thought I didn’t even list her anywhere on my list, but it turns out I had her as a surprise. So good on me. That’s how thin this year was. I didn’t even think about anyone below my Dark Horse, which was Margot Robbie. But hey, I haven’t yet gotten down to my ‘shocker’ tier in a meaningful category. So I’m really off to a great start.

Also weird to think that Cate Blanchett is just gonna waltz away with this one, huh? Unless we go all in on Michelle Yeoh and her story, this should be Cate in a Cate-walk.


Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

This category was a mix of ‘oh, so you guys watched that movie, huh?’ and ‘I can’t believe you went and did it’. They fucking nominated Judd Hirsch for one scene. It’s literally what they did with Judi Dench last year, only worse. Judi at least had a presence throughout that movie. Judd Hirsch gets out of a cab, has a dinner scene and then a bedroom scene and then leaves the movie. It’s like what, six minutes of screen time, maybe? Insane. Paul Dano was right there. But Academy gonna Academy. So that wasn’t really a surprise as much as it was a bemused chuckle. Brian Tyree Henry is the one where I raised half an eyebrow. Because all he had was BFCA, which is notoriously unhelpful, and his film wasn’t really much talked about all season. And it was a Jennifer Lawrence movie. And nobody cared. So him jumping on was a bit of a minor surprise in the sense that… yeah, he was one of ten people with precursors, but where was any of the momentum for him? I’m thrilled, because he’s an amazing actor. Dude was good enough to have gotten a nomination here for basically one long scene in If Beale Street Could Talk. He’s consistently one of (if not the) best parts of his films. Love that he’s getting some appreciation. But honestly the nomination comes out of nowhere.

I will say, though, I’m happy Eddie Redmayne didn’t get nominated. I didn’t buy that was gonna happen and it really made no sense and would have been one of the laziest choices imaginable. So I’m glad it didn’t actually happen. Otherwise, the main three are still here and because of that, I went 3/5, with having mixed up one of the Fabelmans nominees. Hirsch was my Dark Horse and I did say not to guess Henry, so whoops. But whatever. 3/5 and a Dark Horse. That’s still fine.

Though, again — is Ke Huy Quan about to win an Oscar? That’s fucking dope, if that’s the case.


Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau, The Whale

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

I tell you, the scream I let out in the car when I heard Stephanie Hsu’s name get called. I am so fucking happy for her. She deserved that nomination so badly and I am so happy she got it. Also thrilled Kerry Condon is finally getting noticed for the acting powerhouse she is. Plus you get Hong Chau finally getting noticed for all the great work she’s been putting in (remember when she just missed out 5 years ago for Downsizing?), Jamie Lee Curtis getting her first nomination after 45 years of great work and Angela Bassett just being awesome. This is a great category on a lot of levels.

That said — kinda don’t want to see Bassett win here for what feels like a nothing role. But if that’s what they’re gonna do, that’s what they’re gonna do. Condon or Chau should win this, if I’m being honest. But that’s a discussion for a later date. Otherwise, I went 4/5 here and my Alternate made it on, so I was right there, and the only reason I didn’t go 5/5 is because I refused to be disappointed when they didn’t nominate Stephanie Hsu. So this is a 4/5 I will take every single time.


Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans


Triangle of Sadness

Complete and utter chalk. Almost everyone should have gone 5/5 here. The only reason for you to have gone 4/5 is if you thought maybe Aftersun would sneak on instead. This was blatantly obvious. All it took was seeing last year and The Worst Person in the World getting nominated here to know they would go for something like Triangle of Sadness. Especially when there was no surefire fifth choice.

I say this all the time, but this year is proving — you don’t need to be a genius to do well guessing Oscar nominees. You just need a memory for what’s happened previously and the data of what the precursors are. The only intuition you need is being able to make a few inferences based on how you know the Academy votes, and that comes from doing it year in and year out. There’s no reason everyone can’t routinely guess 70% of these nominations if they care to. Which is why I almost immediately stopped looking at those Oscar predictions sites, because I constantly would see them make the most insane choices that clearly came from what the publicity said rather than reality. It’s not rocket science, guys.

Anyway, this category is awesome and I’m thrilled that one of two good scripts is gonna win this.


Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery


Top Gun: Maverick

Women Talking

This was an easy 4/5. The only surprise is Top Gun, and that’s because it’s an action movie and they typically don’t respect the writing of those. I’m happy for Chris McQuarrie. Sad that She Said got shut out entirely. One can’t help but consider the conspiracy theory notion of it being a movie about Harvey that they chose to shut out, but I digress. I can’t say Top Gun is a major surprise inclusion just because it was clearly gonna get nominated a bunch. The only reason it’s a slight surprise is just because of its genre. But, I think we can all agree — at least it wasn’t Avatar.

Also, a legitimate question now — what wins this? Where do the votes go here? I truly don’t know.

Also, smaller question — I have to assume Top Gun is getting nominated by the WGA tomorrow, which would have telegraphed this nomination. If not, boy is that gonna be interesting as hell.


Best Editing

The Banshees of Inisherin


Everything Everywhere All at Once


Top Gun: Maverick

I’m a little surprised All Quiet didn’t make it, but it underscores what I’ve been saying all along, how Editing is really just a vehicle for Best Picture. And by that I mean, the serious Best Picture nominees. It always has been. All five of these are Picture nominees, but it shows you how much they loved Banshees and Tár that they got on here. I had Tár as my First Alternate for that very reason (and I’m also glad I figured they wouldn’t go Fabelmans no matter what happened). I’m also glad I guessed Banshees. I figured that would be one to make it on.

This is another 4/5 for me, with the First Alternate on. No biggie. I thought they’d take Top Gun or Elvis off for Tár, not All Quiet. But whatever. You can’t argue with 4/5 in Editing in a year like this.


Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front

Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths


Empire of Light


I half-expected Tár to somehow make it on here. More so Editing, but also somehow here too. That’s always been the film where I went, “That’s gonna get like 6 nominations and people are gonna look back and wonder how that happened.” People forget, because Todd Field hasn’t made a movie in 15 years, how much his films were/are Oscar darlings.

Anyway, I went 3/5 here. Top Gun was a somewhat surprising omission (offsetting the Screenplay surprise inclusion), and The Batman got left off, which doesn’t shock me, as much as it slightly disappoints me. But Grieg Fraser’s doing okay. He won this category last year.

What this means is that Darius Khondji gets on. His first nomination since Evita, which is insane. But Bardo was lovely (even if it was a bit like Darius trying to do his best Chivo impersonation) and Darius is a great DP, so no complaints there. Otherwise, Deakins got on, as he always does, and All Quiet gets on, which you kinda figured. No Janusz, which I did expect, since they like to not nominate Janusz for some reason. Elvis has hit everything, so that wasn’t a surprise either. Bardo was the obvious Dark Horse there, the minute something got left off and they continued to not like Janusz. Tár over Top Gun is the only minor surprise (though I’ll be honest, I don’t necessarily think Top Gun needed that nomination, not that I’d have put Tár on in its place). I am glad Avatar didn’t make it on, though. So there’s that.

This category feels to me a bit like Editing did last year, where it’s not so interesting a category, but overall is pretty solid. I also have no idea what wins this. It seems like it’s gonna be All Quiet or Elvis. Nobody cares about Empire of Light. Bardo would be a bit surprising, with no other nominations, no? (You know the last movie to win Cinematography with less than 5 overall nominations? Legends of the Fall. That’s about to be 30 years ago.) And does anybody think cinematography when they think of Tár? So yeah, one of those two is almost certainly gonna win this category. And that’s nuts.


Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front


The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

This is the category where you knew they were all in on Everything Everywhere. This and Song. Once you saw those, you went, “Oh, they’re padding it.” They only do that when they like something. Like Shape of Water. Did that movie need 13 nominations that year? No. But when they like something, it gets on those extra categories.

This was an easy 4/5 for most people. You knew Babylon would get on. You knew Fabelmans would get on. All Quiet made a lot of sense too. Banshees also you had to figure just because Burwell got nominated for Three Billboards. I went 3/5, just because I thought for sure Desplat would get on for Pinocchio, having hit all the precursors. But hey, they loved Everything Everywhere. Shit happens.

It also again proves that nothing gets nominated in Score without precursors. And BAFTA had everyone here except John Williams. And John Williams is like Diane Warren in Song. You know that’s automatic. So, I did worse than I should have, but I’ll take it. I think they probably had the right scores on here (even if Hildur Guðnadóttir got a bit screwed between her Women Talking score and her disqualified Tár score. But it happens.

Now the question becomes — are they really gonna give Justin Hurwitz another one? Or is this an All Quiet surprise or an Everything Everywhere sweep? This’ll be interesting to track. I can’t call this one right now.


Best Original Song

“Applause,” from Tell It Like a Woman

“Hold My Hand,” from Top Gun: Maverick

“Lift Me Up,” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

“Naatu Naatu,” from RRR

“This Is a Life,” from Everything Everywhere All at Once

I knew 4/5 of these cold. You knew Diane Warren. You knew Gaga. You knew Rihanna. You knew RRR. What was #5? I figured Desplat, since that just seemed like an obvious choice, even if the song was just okay. But there was also J. Ralph, who had that run last decade. And then, in the end, the song from Everything Everywhere actually got on. Good for them. Also, David Byrne and Mitski just got nominated for Oscars. That’s fucking crazy. Anyway, I’ll take 4/5 in Song any day of the week. (Also worth noting — two songs got nominated without precursors this year, even though one is Diane Warren and doesn’t count.)


Best Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water



The Fabelmans

Avatar got nominated in Production Design. The film was a water tank, green screen and CGI. And it was nominated for production design. And Everything Everywhere was not. That feels disrespectful to the medium in so many ways. But I digress.

The big point I want to make here is — remember how I always make such a big point about Spielberg in Production Design? Yeah. This is why. I hope you all listened to me and guessed The Fabelmans here.

I went 4/5 here, with Avatar getting on (which I half-expected but left off just because it felt too cynical to guess) over The Batman. I didn’t necessarily believe The Batman would make it, but it had the right precursors and generally fit. I honestly thought they’d put Black Panther or Everything Everywhere on over Avatar. But whatever. It’s still a 4/5 and at least three of the right nominees got on. I can live with that.


Best Costume Design


Black Panther: Wakanda Forever


Everything Everywhere All at Once

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

I had 4/5 here cold, as should have most people. I put Amsterdam as my fifth choice because I didn’t know what they were gonna do. I didn’t buy that as a legitimate choice. I was just trying to pull a long shot out of my ass. The main thing is that they considered Everything Everywhere a fantasy over a contemporary film, and that’s what allowed it to get on (plus they loved it). It was a great inclusion. I just wasn’t sure they were going to make it. And they did. So we’re good. I’d rather see that here than The Fabelmans or All Quiet on the Western Front. So great choice, no notes, awesome category.


Best Makeup & Hairstyling

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever


The Whale

Babylon got left off here and Black Panther got on. No real surprise, given how no one seemed to like Babylon. I thought Blonde might sneak on, but that one makes sense, not making it. I think Babylon deserved a nomination here, but I can’t be mad, given the five that made it on. So I’ll take the 4/5 and be totally happy with whatever wins here (The Whale).


Best Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Top Gun: Maverick

Oh my god, if you got less than 4/5 here, stop trying to guess the Oscars. Most people probably should have gotten 5/5. I just guessed Black Panther to get left off because I’m starting to see them turn away from Marvel. But I said it a week or two ago — they didn’t nominate the first one because they knew it would win and shouldn’t have. They nominated this one because they knew it had zero chance of winning next to Avatar. You saw this coming. I just thought we reached that tipping point where they started to say ‘fuck Marvel’. But Black Panther is too big to fail in that regard. So it wasn’t the right benchmark. It would have been a major shot across the bow if they did it, but I’m not surprised they didn’t. This one was completely straightforward and telegraphed the entire way and everyone should have done well here.


Best Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman


Top Gun: Maverick

I think most people should have gone 5/5 here. This was the most obvious category. I probably could have put this in the top five of categories I was most confident in getting spot on. These were the only choices. Moonage Daydream had no shot. Pinocchio was a pipe dream. Black Panther wasn’t happening, as much as it seemed like it could have. Babylon had no precursors and clearly was never gonna happen, given the reception to it (maybe in split Sound categories it could have managed one, but that’s all). It was only Everything Everywhere that could have made it on, and you couldn’t see them leaving almost any of these off in favor of it. The Batman was the only one. So yeah, this should have been an easy 5/5 for most people, except the ones predicting the sweep votes for Everything Everywhere.


Best Animated Feature

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Puss in Boots

The Sea Beast

Turning Red

So Wendell & Wild didn’t make it and The Sea Beast did instead. Okay. I guess I can live with that. The Sea Beast was just okay, but Wendell & Wild, while fun, didn’t necessarily wow me either. They got the right top 4, which is all that matters. The Sea Beast was also my First Alternate, which not only shows you how thin this year was, it also shows you how obviously telegraphed it was too. You knew Lightyear and Strange World had no shot, so unless they were gonna go weird and unknown, that was really the only big choice for them. So this was an easy 4/5 all around. You knew most of this category from the jump.


Best International Feature

All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)

Close (Belgium)

Eo (Poland)

The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

So three of these felt obvious. The Quiet Girl got two BAFTA nominations, so you figured that was on. Argentina won the Globe, so you had to guess that. And All Quiet was getting a Picture nomination. All easy. The last two — I think we all would have figured Chan-wook Park to make it. But honestly, in hindsight, it makes sense. The Handmaiden didn’t make it on either. I blame this on not having watched any of these. Like, at all. I watched All Quiet and Bardo and haven’t seen the other 13 shortlisted films. Had I seen them all (or most of them) like I normally do, I might have been able to think about that. But I’ll take the 3/5. Close and Eo were both high profile films (and I think I remember seeing that Poland has gotten nominated every single time they’ve been shortlisted. Stats don’t really mean anything, but it is interesting that they got it yet again). Close felt like a film I’d look to guess most other years. Mostly I’m happy that I knew Bardo wouldn’t make it. That’s the one I feel I did right by. It takes some guts to leave off a film of that stature. Also interesting that no ‘unknown’ choice got on this year. That’s rare for them.

Now, the interesting thing is gonna be about figuring whether All Quiet wins this or not. Because I’m not sure it’s a gimme (even though it’s like 85% a gimme). We’ll see, though.


Best Documentary Feature

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Fire of Love

A House Made of Splinters


I guessed 4/5 here and I expected to guess 4/5 here. I didn’t know what to do with that final spot and would have rather gone to bed than think about it. So it ended up being A House Made of Splinters. Cool. I knew it wouldn’t be the music docs and I knew it wouldn’t be most of what was left. I literally made my decision based on what had the most precursors. So I’ll take this 4/5 and be perfectly happy.

Honestly the only thing left for me to concern myself with for this category is how to get a hold of the two nominees I haven’t seen yet (the first two).


Best Documentary Short

The Elephant Whisperers


How Do You Measure a Year?

The Martha Mitchell Effect

Stranger at the Gate

I’ll be honest, when they announced these I went, “I don’t even know how I did,” because I saw 0 of these docs before I guessed and guessed purely off the cuff, based solely on log lines and immediately forgot what I guessed right after I guessed them. I went 2/5. But you can go 2/5 even if you’re informed of what you’re doing. So I don’t much mind that. I have no real opinions about any of these because, again, I have watched none of these as of this moment. I have 13/15 (still need to find, I believe, Angola Do You Hear Us and American Justice. Or maybe there’s one more. I honestly can’t remember), so I’ll watch them all soon and eventually have an opinion about what they did here, but right now, I went 2/5 knowing absolutely nothing. Which feels slightly better than if I went 2/5 pretending like I knew what I was doing (which still happens more years than not).


Best Live Action Short

An Irish Goodbye


Le Pupille

Night Ride

The Red Suitcase

Ha ha. I went 3/5 not having seen any of these. That’s insane. I thought I went 4/5, but I didn’t put Ivalu on. Still, 3/5 is awesome. I don’t think I have copies of many of these shorts at all, so it might be a while before I can be fully versed in what should have been nominated here. But for now, cool. Good for all of these.


Best Animated Short

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

The Flying Sailor

Ice Merchants

My Year of Dicks

An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

So I’ll tell you this — if you were just guessing from afar, not seeing anything and not knowing anything, and you saw two shorts whose titles were ‘My Year of Dicks’ and ‘An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It’, wouldn’t you just instinctively guess they’d probably make it on? That’s how I think voters work too. There was no way I wasn’t guessing those two (it also helps that they’re two of the best shorts on the shortlist). Ice Merchants visually just seemed like an easy on a well, and everyone should have known The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse was getting on. So this was an easy 4/5. The Flying Sailor felt like something they’d nominate, as much as I didn’t want to believe it (there were much better options there). But it makes sense. If a few others made it on, I’d have been surprised. This one I’m like, “Yeah, I kinda knew better there.” So that’s fine. I’ll happily take this 4/5.

– – – – –

Nominee Breakdown:

  • Everything Everywhere All at Once — 11 nominations (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress x2, Original Screenplay, Editing, Score, Song, Costume Design)
  • All Quiet on the Western Front — 9 nominations (Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Score, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Sound, International Feature)
  • The Banshees of Inisherin — 9 nominations (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor x2, Editing,  Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score)
  • Elvis — 8 nominations (Picture, Actor, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Sound)
  • The Fabelmans — 7 nominations (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Score, Production Design)
  • Tár — 6 nominations (Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography)
  • Top Gun: Maverick — 6 nominations (Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Song, Visual Effects, Sound)
  • Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — 5 nominations (Supporting Actress, Song, Costume Design,  Makeup & Hairstyling, Visual Effects)
  • Avatar: The Way of Water — 4 nominations (Picture, Production Design, Visual Effects, Sound)
  • Babylon — 3 nominations (Score, Production Design, Costume Design)
  • The Batman — 3 nominations (Makeup & Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Sound)
  • Triangle of Sadness — 3 nominations (Picture, Director, Original Screenplay)
  • The Whale — 3 nominations (Actor, Supporting Actress, Makeup & Hairstyling)
  • Living — 2 nominations (Actor, Adapted Screenplay)
  • Women Talking — 2 nominations (Picture, Adapted Screenplay)
  • Aftersun — 1 nomination (Actor)
  • Argentina, 1985 — 1 nomination (International Feature)
  • Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths — 1 nomination (Cinematography)
  • Blonde — 1 nomination (Actress)
  • Causeway — 1 nomination (Supporting Actor)
  • Close — 1 nomination (International Feature)
  • Empire of Light — 1 nomination (Cinematography)
  • Eo — 1 nomination (International Feature)
  • Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery — 1 nomination (Adapted Screenplay)
  • Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio — 1 nomination (Animated Feature)
  • Marcel the Shell with Shoes On — 1 nomination (Animated Feature)
  • Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris — 1 nomination (Costume Design)
  • Puss in Boots: The Last Wish — 1 nomination (Animated Feature)
  • The Quiet Girl — 1 nomination (International Feature)
  • RRR — 1 nomination (Song)
  • The Sea Beast — 1 nomination (Animated Feature)
  • Tell It Like a Woman — 1 nomination (Song)
  • To Leslie — 1 nomination (Actress)
  • Turning Red — 1 nomination (Animated Feature)

You know what’s interesting about this? I look at everything except maybe the top three films and go, “Yeah… that feels like the number of nominations I’d have expected from them.” +/-1. Everything Everywhere feels like it would have capped out around 8 or so most other years. All Quiet feels like 6. Banshees feels like 6/7, and Elvis feels like 6/7 as well. But they watch such a small pool of films that there’s always bound to be inflated totals at the top. So I’m not surprised.

– – – – –

Now, let’s see how I did, guessing:

  • 9/10 in Picture
  • 5/5 in Actor, Original Screenplay, Sound
  • 4/5 in Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Song, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Animated Short
  • 3/5 in Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Score, International Feature, Live Action Short
  • 2/5 in Documentary Short

Out of 120 nominees, I guessed 93 of them correctly.

HA HA HA HA HA. That’s 77.5%. I did better than I normally do, knowing what I’m doing and actually paying attention. Amazing. You really can roll out of bed and guess these things if you have even half an idea of what you’re doing.

Look at these previous years:

Previous totals:

  • 2021: 72.5% (87/120)
  • 2020: 75.4% (89/118)
  • 2019: 76.6% (95/124)
  • 2018: 74.4% (90/121)
  • 2017: 74.5% (91/122)
  • 2016: 77% (94/122)
  • 2015: 78.5% (95/121)
  • 2014: 71.9% (87/121)
  • 2013: 76% (92/121)
  • 2012: 71% (87/122)
  • 2011: 68% (81/119)

This is legitimately my second best year ever, behind 2015. Insane. AND I WATCHED ZERO OF THE LIVE ACTION SHORTS AND DOCUMENTARY SHORTS. Actually zero. And I’ve seen only two International Feature films off the shortlist. And I still managed my second best total ever. Craziness.

The only thing that rates as a surprise for me this year is Andrea Riseborough getting nominated. As I said, Brian Tyree Henry is more curious than a surprise (and only because of the Academy being who they are and for no other reason). Otherwise everything else is situational. Pinocchio missing out on the categories it seemed strong in, All Quiet missing out in Editing, Tár getting a couple of extra nominations like Cinematography, random stuff like that. Nothing there really rates the level of ‘discussion’ in the macro sense. Overall it’s been a pretty chalky year. A lot of the obvious stuff made it on.

I had 5 Dark Horses and 6 First Alternates make it on. I did have one major nominee in the ‘don’t guess’ category, which is really the only major note for structuring what I didn’t guess. It’s hard to argue with ‘second best total ever’, so there’s really not much I’m gonna quibble about in terms of how I guessed. I did my usual thing. Sure, I could have gotten 3-4 other ones right if I were willing to go with what I figured would happen, but if I did that, I wouldn’t have guessed some of the ones I got right. It all balances out and I did great for someone who barely paid attention before like three weeks ago and still isn’t even fully caught up now.

I’m going to update my Oscar Trivia page with these new nominations within the week, and will check in soon with the last of the precursors. Otherwise, after this, it’s back to actually writing up my damn Top Ten list, because at this point I really am basically done with watching everything from this year and am only missing about one major movie. So now that I don’t have this article to worry about and 6 weeks til Oscar night, I can definitely get that Top Ten list up sooner rather than later.

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