Precursors 2: Electric Boogaloo

Hey look, we’ve got some winners.

I considered just not talking about these at all until Oscar ballot time, but BAFTAs were today and it seemed worthwhile. I’ll probably wait until the end of the month to update again, just because everything going forward, save maybe SAG, is just ‘here’s what won’ and there’s really not much to talk about. But hey, it’s something, right?

ADG — Babylon won Period Film, Everything Everywhere won Fantasy Film and Glass Onion won Contemporary Film. Oh, and Pinocchio won Animated Film. Almost none of this matters (even though they did make the right choices), since Babylon is the only winner nominated at the Oscars and has swept all the precursors thus far. So it’s basically confirmation bias as to what’s gonna happen there.

DGA — the Daniels won for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Which is huge, as only 8 times ever has the DGA winner lost the Oscar. Could it happen here? Sure. But given the Director category… seems unlikely.

And now, the BAFTAs:

Best Film

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Tár

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

This is a bit of a surprise, but also… BAFTA is 3/10 in matching Best Picture in the past decade, and 2 of those 3 came in the first two years of the ten. Nomadland is their only matched winner since 2013. So I’m not putting a whole lot of stock in this past — they really liked this movie. Which is fine. Support is there and it means that you probably want to side with it over not in some tossup tech categories. But I’m not sure this changes my Best Picture thinking whatsoever.

 

Outstanding British Film

Aftersun

The Banshees of Inisherin

Brian and Charles

Empire of Light

Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Living

Matilda: The Musical

See How They Run

The Swimmers

The Wonder

Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin

Well, they gave it this. Which is something. It means they did still like it quite a bit (though honestly, what the hell else were they truly gonna vote for here?), and it means it’s still nominally in Picture contention, depending on what PGA and SAG do in the coming weeks. So it’s not nothing, even if it is a bit of an obvious outcome.

 

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Aftersun (Charlotte Wells)

Blue Jean (Georgia Oakley, Hélène Sifre)

Electric Malady (Marie Lidén)

Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (Katy Brand)

Rebellion (Maia Kenworthy & Elena Sánchez Bellot)

Winner: Aftersun (Charlotte Wells)

No shit. Who the hell else was gonna win this? I mean, I’m thrilled for her and she absolutely deserves it, but still.

 

Best Director

Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front

Gina Prince-Bythwood, The Woman King

Todd Field, Tár

Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Chan-wook Park, Decision to Leave

Winner: Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front

They sure did go all in on this movie. Good for them. Does nothing to help us for the actual category, but considering the Daniels won the DGA and BFCA and Spielberg only has the Globe and wasn’t even nominated here, I think we can probably work our way through that one pretty easily even without this. They had the chance to nominate and/or vote for the rest of the Oscar category, so there shouldn’t be many shenanigans happening there.

 

Best Actor

Austin Butler, Elvis

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Daryl McCormack, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Bill Nighy, Living

Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis

The only non-Brit wins. That’s… it’s weird to think this could happen. I wanna see where SAG goes. I assume SAG will go Brendan Fraser, but even that’s not a gimme. If they go Colin Farrell or Butler, it’s probably over for Butler. I don’t think they’ll go anywhere else, but you never know. It’s gonna come down to SAG, but this is a huge win for Butler and his chances at winning.

 

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Tár

Viola Davis, The Woman King

Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Ana de Armas, Blonde

Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once

Winner: Cate Blanchett, Tár

She’s basically swept the season so far. I expect SAG to probably take Michelle Yeoh, but even if they do (and especially if they don’t), Cate basically has the category on lock at this point.

 

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once

Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Albrect Schuch, All Quiet on the Western Front

Micheal Ward, Empire of Light

Winner: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Well doesn’t that make things interesting? Granted, it’s BAFTA, and they do that sort of thing. But Ke Huy Quan really does only have BFCA and the Globe at this point, and we’ve seen races swing wildly in one direction at the start of the precursors only to go a completely different way by the end. So it’s definitely not over. SAG will probably go Quan’s direction, and he’ll probably still be the favorite in the end, but this does make the category more interesting. Especially since you’d figure BAFTA would vote Gleeson over Keoghan. Which tells you they actually really liked the performance. I’m not sure he’s a legitimate option for the win without SAG, but it’s more open than it was a day ago, I’ll tell you that.

 

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau, The Whale

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once

Carey Mulligan, She Said

Winner: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

I wasn’t sold on Bassett actually being the winner, and am still not. That said, Condon is Irish and this is BAFTA, so this isn’t as big a feather in her cap as maybe it would be if it were SAG. But SAG is still open. And while I suspect they’ll likely take Angela Bassett (or Jamie Lee Curtis for that matter. SAG is, after all, just a popularity contest at this point), I still don’t think this category is as sewn up as the precursors may make it seem. I think Condon has a legitimate chance at this. But we’ll wait for SAG to truly try to parse this one. It’s fairly wide open still.

 

Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Triangle of Sadness

Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin

I’d fucking hope so. I mean they could have went for the Daniels, but this is their hometown boy. He’s won this category three times now. He needed his win for the Oscars. I wanna see what the WGA does (not that it ultimately matters, since McDonagh isn’t a member and the script is ineligible there). If it’s not Everything Everywhere that wins there, it’ll cement the notion that this is probably gonna win the Oscar. Still, after having lost to Get Out with Three Billboards, I think this might be that Charlie Kaufman scenario, where people were like, “Well, we didn’t give him Malkovich, or Adaptation, we kind of have to do it for Eternal Sunshine, right?” I suspect he’s your likely winner, especially if Everything Everywhere isn’t the big Picture favorite. But it’s still a 50/50.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front

Living

The Quiet Girl

She Said

The Whale

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

There are only two Oscar contenders here, and one of the two won like 8 or 9 awards tonight. Clearly, this was gonna be their winner. Now, what’s interesting is that Oscar category, since 1) All Quiet is WGA ineligible, and 2) the rest of the category doesn’t have a major contender in it. So, with Living and Top Gun not being legitimate choices and Glass Onion feeling extremely unlikely, the winner is basically either this or Women Talking… and I think, based on history, it almost has to be this that wins.

 

Best Editing

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Top Gun: Maverick

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Makes sense. Seems to be headed toward becoming one of the locks of the night come Oscar night. Though I guess we’ll see what the guild does. All Quiet, Top Gun and Elvis are in one category and Banshees and Everything Everywhere are in the other. So we could catch another precursor for All Quiet and make things interesting.

 

Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Batman

Elvis

Empire of Light

Top Gun: Maverick

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Yeah, that makes sense. I wasn’t sold on Elvis actually being the winner there. Because the Oscar category has Empire of Light (not happening. If Deakins couldn’t win all those years for Fargo, O Brother, Assassination of Jesse James, No Country, True Grit, Skyfall, Sicario… what makes you think he’s gonna win for this?) and Tár (does that scream ‘cinematography’ to the casual voter?). Oh, and Bardo, which stands no chance, since you have to go back about 75 years to find something that won Cinematography as its only nomination. Meaning your winner is either All Quiet or Elvis. And I just have a hard time thinking it’s Elvis. So, depending on what the guild does, this goes a long way to telling me this is probably gonna be as intuitive as it seems.

 

Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Big win. Though, given the precursor situation and what the actual category is, it was pretty much always gonna be this vs. Babylon for the win. And I’m not fully convinced this isn’t the result of a sweep vote. Maybe it holds up in the Academy at large, but I’m not assuming this is a harbinger of a guaranteed win. I can’t see them taking Fabelmans and Everything Everywhere winning Score would really surprise me. And Banshees has lost in all the precursors, and it’s extremely rare for something to get swept in the precursors and still win. So you’ve got a 50/50 choice in the end. I’m leaning Babylon now, but we’ll see if I can convince myself otherwise over the next three weeks.

 

Best Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon

The Batman

Elvis

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Winner: Babylon

It’s swept everything to this point. As much as they hated the movie, they can never resist the siren song that is 1920s Hollywood sets and scenery. This is a lock.

 

Best Costume Design

All Quiet on the Western Front

Amsterdam

Babylon

Elvis

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Winner: Elvis

Yeah… gonna be hard to think this doesn’t win. I wanna see what the guild does, but I think this is your clear favorite to win (with Black Panther a potential alternate, even though I don’t think they’re gonna go back there again). Maybe Babylon sneaks a guild win to make it interesting, but I think we all know what they’re gonna do in the end.

 

Best Make Up & Hair

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Batman

Elvis

Matilda The Musical

The Whale

Winner: Elvis

I thought The Whale had this on lock going in, but now I’m not so sure. If Brendan Fraser isn’t gonna win Actor and Austin Butler is… sure looks like this wins the Oscar. It’s won like everything. Plus it’s Elvis. Which means hair and fat suit… it’s got everything you’d want out of a winner. Seems like it’s approaching lock status.

 

Best Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar The Way of Water

Elvis

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

BAFTA Sound is a huge precursor to an Oscar win. In the past 20 years, only 3 films won the Sound BAFTA and not won at least 1 Sound Oscar. And it’s only happened once in the past 15. So yeah, this is huge. Both Sound guilds still have to announce, so if All Quiet wins CAS and wins MPSE’s foreign category, I think it’s a done deal. If CAS goes differently, I want to see what they pick (and if it matches with MPSE), because CAS has missed 5 of the past 15 years. So we’ll see. But this feels like an easy Sound winner right now.

 

Best Special Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Top Gun: Maverick

Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water

The biggest lock of the night, and we didn’t even need a precursor to tell us that.

 

Best Animated Film

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Turning Red

Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Another lock of the night. Easy winner all around and every guild and precursor has been telling us this for months now.

 

Best Film Not in the English Language

All Quiet on the Western Front

Argentina, 1985

Corsage

Decision to Leave

The Quiet Girl

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

No shit.

 

Best Documentary

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Fire of Love

Moonage Daydream

Navalny

Winner: Navalny

Now this is interesting. It’s not a guarantee, but it’s something. I look at the previous BAFTA Documentary winners: Summer of Soul (won), Octopus Teacher (won), For Sama (lost to American Factory), Free Solo (won), I Am Not Your Negro (lost to Icarus), 13th (lost to O.J.), Amy (won), Citizenfour (won), The Act of Killing (lost to 20 Feet from Stardom), Searching for Sugar Man (won). Sure seems like a pretty solid precursor. Maybe this really is the favorite. Seems like it would be, just having watched it among the other nominees, but this is the first I’m actually starting to feel like it can win.

 

Best Casting

Aftersun

All Quiet on the Western Front

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Triangle of Sadness

Winner: Elvis

Damn. That… tells me something. Or does it? Are they just rewarding, “Hey, you found the right guy to play Elvis”? Guess it doesn’t matter in the end, really, does it?

 

Best British Short Animation

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

Middle Watch

Your Mountain Is Waiting

Winner: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

It is nominated for an Oscar, after all.

 

EE Rising Star Award

Aimee Lou Wood

Daryl McCormack

Emma Mackey

Naomi Ackie

Sheila Atim

Winner: Emma Mackey

Wait, what? Wow. And the public votes on this? Damn. Good for them. She was incredible in Emily and I honestly didn’t think enough people even saw that performance to take her. Good for them. And for her. She’s a star.

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Okay, so that’s what I’ve got for now. A bunch more precursors are happening next week, so I’ll check in probably at some point once those are in. Otherwise, my Oscar Ballot is like, half filled out already and really I’m just waiting for the rest of the precursors to come in to fill out the rest. I may have been late to the party at the start, but I’m all over the rest of it. I’m at the point now where I’ve seen every single nominee but one (and I think I’m down to… three films off the International Feature shortlist (one of which will be watched in the next few days), two off Doc Feature, one off Doc Short, and like five or six off the Animated Feature eligibles list and then I’ve seen everything). So I’m fully educated and ready to have absolutely no idea what’s gonna happen on Oscar night.

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