Oscars 2022: Precursors 33 ⅓ — The Final Insult

Last set of precursors, guys. Oscar night is within a week now, and we’re in the final stretches.

Not gonna waste any time here, let’s just get into what won so we can finish our ballots:

CAS, the Sound Mixers, gave their award to Top Gun: Maverick. Of note here is that All Quiet actually was nominated against it. ACE, the Editors, gave their awards to Everything Everywhere All at Once (Comedy) and Top Gun: Maverick (Drama). No real surprises there. ASC, the Cinematographers, gave their award to Elvis, which is what I suspected, given their category vs. the Oscar category. The WGA Awards went to Everything Everywhere All at Once in Original and Women Talking in Adapted. Both of which are the presumed favorites, so nothing shocking. Women Talking also won the USC Scripter, if anyone puts stock into that

And now, to finish, the Independent Spirit Awards. They’re kinda meaningless, in my mind, but there are a bunch of categories and could potentially help you see where certain things are leaning.

Independent Spirit Awards

Best Feature

Bones and All

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Our Father, the Devil

Tár

Women Talking

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

I think we’d all have been shocked if this went anywhere else, the way this season has gone.

 

Best First Feature

Aftersun

Emily the Criminal

The Inspection

Murina

Palm Trees and Power Lines

Winner: Aftersun

No shit.

 

Best Director

Todd Field, Tár

Kogonada, After Yang

Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Sarah Polley, Women Talking

Halina Reijin, Bodies Bodies Bodies

Winner: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Again, were we expecting anything else? (Also, really awesome category.)

 

Best Lead Performance

Cate Blanchett, Tár

Dale Dickey, A Love Song

Mia Goth, Pearl

Regina Hall, Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.

Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Aubrey Plaza, Emily the Criminal

Jeremy Pope, The Inspection

Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie

Taylor Russell, Bones and All

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Winner: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

I’ve got an increasing feeling that she could win Best Actress. Remember last year? Power of the Dog won everything early but then you started to feel CODA charging hard at the end. That’s kind of how she feels. I think this could legitimately happen, guys. And I’m at the point where, even if it feels like it’s probably still gonna be Cate Blanchett in the end, I might just say ‘fuck it’ and put her on the ballot because I could care less about the results and just want to see if it happens.

 

Best Supporting Performance

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

Nina Hoss, Tár

Brian d’Arcy James, The Cathedral

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Trevante Rhodes, Bruiser

Theo Rossi, Emily the Criminal

Mark Rylance, Bones and All

Jonathan Tucker, Palm Trees and Power Lines

Gabrielle Union, The Inspection

Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

This has been a done deal from the start. He ended up in the best possible situation and he’s gonna ride this all the way to the stage.

 

Best Breakthrough Performance

Frankie Corio, Aftersun

Gracija Filipović, Murina

Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Lily McInerny, Palm Trees and Power Lines

Daniel Zolghadri, Funny Pages

Winner: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Happy for her (though also, Frankie Corio… amazing in Aftersun).

 

Best Screenplay

After Yang

Catherine Called Birdy

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Tár

Women Talking

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Oh, so they’re full on sweep voting. Okay then.

 

Best First Screenplay

Bodies Bodies Bodies

Emergency

Emily the Criminal

Fire Island

Palm Trees and Power Lines

Winner: Emily the Criminal

This makes a lot of sense. I did also quite enjoy Bodies Bodies Bodies, even though I do think they picked the right one.

 

Best Cinematography

Aftersun

Murina

Neptune Frost

Pearl

Tár

Winner: Tár

Well, it is nominated…

 

Best Editing

Aftersun

The Cathedral

Everything Everywhere All At Once

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Tár

Winner: Everything Everywhere All At Once

The category it deserves most.

 

Best Documentary

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Blodshed

A House Made of Splinters

Midwives

Riotsville USA

Winner: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Of the three nominees, this is the one most likely to win. So I guess that helps?

 

Best International Film

Corsage

Joyland

Leonor Will Never Die

Return to Seoul

Saint Omer

Winner: Joyland

I don’t hate this as a choice. I’m happy for it.

 

John Cassavetes Award

The African Desperate

A Love Song

The Cathedral

Holy Emy

Something in the Dirt

Winner: The Cathedral

Cool.

 

Producers Award

Liz Cardenas

Tory Lenosky

David Grove Churchill Viste

Winner: Tory Lenosky

Cool.

 

 Someone to Watch Award

Adamma Ebo, Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.

Nikyatu Jusu, Nanny

Araceli Lemos, Holy Emy

Winner: Nikyatu Jusu, Nanny

Cool.

 

 Truer Than Fiction Award

Isabel Castro, Mija

Reid Davenport, I Didn’t See You There

Rebeca Huntt, Beba

Winner: Reid Davenport, I Didn’t See You There

And cool.

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Okay, so that’s all your precursors. We’ve now got everything we’re gonna get, and the rest is picking a ballot.

At this point I’m like 98% done with everything and really am just at the point where I just need to read through it all to make sure it’s all coherent and then wait and see if I change my mind on anything between now and Sunday.

The great thing about having done all this as long as I have is that, by the time you get to this point, it’s all just kind of there. And you know exactly how almost all of it is gonna go, whether it’s locks or a toss up scenario. Seven years ago I’d have been up til 1am the day before just poring over everything, looking for some little statistic that would allow me to swap my #2 and #3 rank in Costumes and think that made all the difference. Now I’m a week out and am like, “Ehh, these seem fine.” The most I’ll do between now and Sunday is go, “You know what? Screw it. I know this is probably gonna win, but I’m happier guessing this.”

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