The B+ Oscar Ballot: Guide to the 95th Academy Awards

It’s that time again.

Maybe it’s because I barely paid attention to awards season this year or maybe it’s because the Academy’s composition is changing and the long-held truths about how this body votes no longer hold as firm as they once did, but I’m coming into this having no idea what’s gonna happen. And that’s exciting. It might mean I’m gonna do horribly on the guesses, but I’m so far past the point of giving a shit about all of that. I’m all about the analysis, and I think anyone who’s read this post each year knows that. I’m just trying to get as close as I can to what’s most likely gonna happen and do my best to help you all make the most informed decisions you can when trying to win your office or party pools.

So let’s see how I do. Here’s 2022:

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

My Personal Rankings:

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. The Fabelmans
5. All Quiet on the Western Front
6. Women Talking
7. Triangle of Sadness
8. Elvis
9. Tár
10. Avatar: The Way of Water

My Thoughts: Perhaps it’s all too recent for me, but this felt like an underwhelming year in film. Almost all the nominees make sense as films that would be in this conversation, but it feels like a year without a lot of great stuff in it. And the way you know that is because voters fell back on the stuff they enjoyed the most from earlier in the year. Usually the allure of the awards bait is enough for them. But not this year. There’s a lot of good stuff, but I struggled to find anything I out and out loved. Even my favorite film of the year felt like a bit of a compromise and I probably won’t know my true opinion for a few years. That said — at couple of my Top Ten films were here, and I did like all of the films nominated. I don’t necessarily disagree with any of them, which is always a good start. In terms of voting, Avatar is the one film that absolutely does not need to win, and is the only film I straight up would never vote for. Otherwise — Triangle of Sadness and Women Talking I’d be okay with for reasons greater than my feelings about the films themselves, so I rate them higher than Elvis and Tár, which are solid but don’t need to win Best Picture. All Quiet I think would be a fine winner, and the other four films were in my Top Ten. So my vote ultimately comes down to where I’d vote within those four. And, since Banshees was my #2 film for the year, I guess that’s my vote for the moment. It’s not something I’d want to take most years, but it’s what I have for now. We’ll see how time changes things for this category.

My Vote: The Banshees of Inisherin

Should Have Been Nominated: Babylon

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

• PGA: Everything Everywhere All at Once
• BAFTA: All Quiet on the Western Front
• SAG: Everything Everywhere All at Once
• BFCA: Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Globes: The Fabelmans (Drama), Banshees of Inisherin (Comedy)

Most Likely to Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once. This is the only film with momentum. It’s the most widely liked film, it has the most nominations, won the most precursors and the only real downside to it is that it doesn’t feel like a movie guaranteed to be #2, #3 and #4 on the majority of ballots (which could potentially bite it in the ass in the end). Still, there’s no other film that can remotely be considered a favorite over this.

The Competition: All Quiet on the Western Front. Yes, it won BAFTA, but BAFTA is 3/10 in the past decade (Nomadland’s the only one they’ve matched since 2013). Plus (not that it really matters)… All Quiet won Best Picture in 1930 and that’s never happened before. Personally I think it’s a tall mountain to climb, and even with a strong section of support, I’m not sure I can call it anything more than a spoiler at most. Any love for this hasn’t been evident. And judging from recent winners, that strong love and support usually what carries them through. Plus, no Director or Editing nomination… the only thing really keeping it here is that BAFTA win.

Spoiler Alert: The Banshees of Inisherin. I honestly don’t even fully buy this a top choice, but what else is there? Nothing has momentum this year outside of Everything Everywhere. But it’s got a precursor, so I guess that counts.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. All Quiet on the Western Front

3. The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Top Gun: Maverick

5. The Fabelmans

6. Elvis

7. Tár

8. Triangle of Sadness

9. Women Talking

10. Avatar: The Way of Water

The Smart Choice: Everything Everywhere All at Once. It’s won everything you’d want to see it win, there’s no direct competition to be found, it’s winning guild awards left and right and has the most nominations. I can’t find even a halfway lucid argument for taking anything else here.

The Deal: Everything Everywhere is the obvious winner. You can try to go against it for whatever reason, but you’re basically just guessing at that point, because there really is no consensus second choice like there’s been in other years. I don’t think this is a category you take a shot with. I think your question is more ‘how much is it gonna win’ and try to vote against it in some of the questionable categories, because things typically don’t win more than 4-5 even in a consensus year. I see nothing else I can even make a case for in this one, save maybe Top Gun (seriously), because at least a bunch of people will have that second or third because of how much they enjoyed it. I can’t really say the same for much else. So I say go what what seems obvious (because oftentimes, that’s the answer).

The Vote: Everything Everywhere All at Once

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Best Director

Todd Field, Tár

Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

My Personal Rankings:

1. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Todd Field, Tár
5. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

My Thoughts: I don’t much like this category at all. I like the people in it, I just hate it as a category because I don’t have anyone I truly want to vote for. Östlund would be a good choice in terms of expanding the diversity of winners, but I don’t see what everyone else sees in the effort. I think it’s a good film among a bunch of other good films that easily could have been here instead. Field — I did very much appreciate how he made that story so compelling. I think it’s a great piece of filmmaking. All in all it’s probably third for me for effort and fourth for a vote. McDonagh does a really fine job with Banshees, and while he’s probably fourth best in terms of pure effort (and will likely fall to fourth over time for me), I do want to use this moment to point out that just because the effort isn’t flashy doesn’t mean it’s unworthy of being here. Past that, Spielberg is a master filmmaker and we know that. But this effort isn’t all that interesting to me. He’s at a point now where he’s really only competing with himself, and I don’t see this as something worth taking (not over West Side Story last year, for starters). In a better category, he’d probably be fourth. Which leaves the Daniels. I think they did an amazing job directing Everything Everywhere and deserve to be here, but I don’t think they should automatically be the vote. But, the category is what it is, so they become (almost automatically) the vote. At least I can look at this as embracing something different and weird and not going the ‘traditional’ route and feel good about that.

My Vote: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Have Been Nominated: Damien Chazelle, Babylon; Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

• DGA: Kwan & Scheinert
• BFCA: Kwan & Scheinert
• Globes: Spielberg

BAFTA went off the board with Edward Berger.

Most Likely to Win: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once. The DGA winner automatically becomes the most likely to win, because 8 times ever. This isn’t rocket science.

The Competition: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans. He’s got the Globe and he’s a respected veteran. If they’re gonna reject the Daniels, they’re gonna go for someone like him. Because think of the people who would reject that movie — they’re older, and whiter. Sure, some may just not like it, and those people will have a particular alternative. But the bulk of the rejection will come from stodgy, old, white voters who ‘don’t get it’. And Spielberg is their wheelhouse.

Spoiler Alert: Todd Field, Tár. I have no clue what to do with third. I can’t see it being Östlund (but I also feel like it almost has to be Östlund, if it’s anyone). McDonagh seems like they’ll just give him Screenplay instead (because they do vote like that), so I don’t think it’s him. Field makes the most sense on paper, just because of the profile of the film, but I also feel like the film is most likely gonna get shut out everywhere outside of Actress. So there’s no real good answer here, which just makes me double down on the fact that the winner is gonna be one of the top two.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

3. Todd Field, Tár

4. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

5. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

The Smart Choice: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once. I see no reason not to take them. There have been 75 DGA awards, and they’ve matched the Oscar 67 times. I’d say a 90% accuracy rate makes them the smart choice.

The Deal:  I can’t even consider who would win if not the Daniels. McDonagh they’ll give Screenplay as his reward (if anything). Field has lost consistently throughout the race (and will also just get Screenplay, if he gets anything) and Östlund is technically a wild card, not competing in any of the precursors… but he also didn’t get nominated at any of the precursors. Not even BAFTA. So I find it difficult to think everyone’s suddenly gonna switch to him. Spielberg’s the only one who makes sense in a last push from the old, white crowd. I don’t see it happening, though. I say just stick with the DGA winners and let the chips fall where they may.

The Vote: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

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Best Actor

Austin Butler, Elvis

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Bill Nighy, Living

My Personal Rankings:

1. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
3. Austin Butler, Elvis
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun

My Thoughts: Sneaky great category here. Even if I wanted to disagree with someone, this year felt like it was lacking in great male lead performances, so there’s really not too much else I could point to as being more worthy than these five. Now, figuring out who to vote for — I think Mescal is really great in Aftersun and does so much without ever speaking much of the time. He’s just not the choice for me. Nighy — always wonderful and I’m very glad he got a showcase that allowed him to finally get some recognition after all these years. Another I just wouldn’t vote for. Butler — he really knocks it out of the park as Elvis and overcomes a film that is so damn frenetic that it threatened to overshadow the great work he was putting in. That in itself is a win. But I wouldn’t vote for him over the other two performances. For me, it’s between Fraser and Farrell. Going in, I figured it would easily be Fraser. But the more I thought about it, the more I kept finding reasons to love Farrell’s performance. And, in the end, by a razor thin margin… I think I’m gonna take Farrell. This might change after some time and revisiting everything, but while they are both worthy of the win, I just feel like I like all the little subtleties of Farrell’s work more than the showcase of Fraser’s.

My Vote: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Should Have Been Nominated: I’m okay with this category.

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

• SAG: Fraser
• BAFTA: Butler
• BFCA: Fraser
• Globes: Butler (Drama), Farrell (Comedy)

Most Likely to Win: Brendan Fraser, The Whale. It was a close race until the end, but Fraser winning SAG tipped him over the edge as the favorite. SAG is still the big precursor here (even if you shouldn’t rule out BAFTA), so that puts him in this spot. It’s a great comeback story (they like those), and he’s got the precursors that have brought many a person up to that stage.

The Competition: Austin Butler, Elvis. BAFTA is big for him. The Globes win… Fraser’s history with the Globes makes me question that a little bit. But BAFTA still solidifies him as a top two choice. I think he’s a legitimate win contender here, especially because, at all the precursors, I’ve seen other actors go up to him and commend his work. Which is a sign that voters did like it. But, the precursors are such that he’s the competition and not the favorite.

Spoiler Alert: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin. I thought he’d be more competitive than he’s been. But he’s only got the other Globe win. Normally I’d look to someone else in that scenario, but we know Mescal has no shot and Nighy’s nomination is his reward. So it’s him for third. But that BAFTA loss was really telling.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

2. Austin Butler, Elvis

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Bill Nighy, Living

5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun

The Smart Choice: Brendan Fraser, The Whale. I think he’s the smart choice, just because I do have questions about Butler being so young and whether he’s really gonna get those extra votes that put one over the top. That said, Fraser’s film might not appeal to everyone the way Elvis did. So it’s a fairly legitimate 50/50. But I do think Fraser’s got the (ever so) slight edge here. (I was going to qualify that sentence with ‘knowing the Academy and how they vote’, but honestly, the same argument applies for Butler, with biopics.) SAG is still a big deal for the acting races that I’m not fully giving up on it just yet. But honestly, they’re both smart choices.

The Deal: I think you can take either Fraser or Butler. However, I will caution this one thing — if Fraser didn’t have the history with the Globes that he had, and he won that category, and he had three precursors to Butler’s one… would this be as big a 50/50 as it seems? (Plus, it’s the Globes, but that’s a separate argument.) I don’t know. The BAFTA win for Butler is legitimately huge, and does make me take him really seriously as a potential winner. Would I prefer this to be more like Natalie Portman and Black Swan, where it was clear from the jump she was gonna win? Of course. And has a similar scenario already play out in 2008 with Mickey Rourke and The Wrestler losing to a biopic performance? Sure has. But Austin Butler is not Sean Penn, and maybe it’s dumb, but that’s what I’m hanging my hat on here. Between the young actor in the biopic who most people haven’t seen before and the guy everyone likes who was away for a while and came back with a powerhouse piece of work… I feel like that’s more their speed. So, I think it’s like 55/45 Fraser, but you could take Butler if you think that’s where they’ll go (because they truly might. He’s more likely to get votes from the old, white crowd, which might even make him the more savvy choice). It’s one of the best places to take a shot on the entire ballot. Pure toss up here.

The Vote: Brendan Fraser, The Whale

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Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Tár

Ana de Armas, Blonde

Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

My Personal Rankings:

1. Ana de Armas, Blonde
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Cate Blanchett, Tár
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
5. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie

My Thoughts: Great actors here. The performances all very good, too. Riseborough is always amazing and I’m so happy that she’s finally getting some recognition, especially with a grassroots push that actively fought against the lazy, money-oriented campaigns most other films utilize. But I still only put that performance fifth. Williams is wonderful (as she always is), and while most would see the role as just another ‘mother’ performance, I do think there’s more going on there than just that. That said, I can’t really see putting it higher than fourth, if not outright fifth. I love her, and would like to see her win one day, but this isn’t the one. Blanchett is great in Tár (as she is in everything). Just wasn’t my favorite performance. Yeoh is really great in Everything Everywhere and could easily be the vote and might have been, in another year. But my favorite performance was Ana de Armas, just because of the level of difficult of that role and how the film quite literally rests on her shoulders. I think she embodies Marilyn Monroe enough that you don’t really consider that you’re watching Ana de Armas after about fifteen minutes of film. So, she’s my choice.

My Vote: Ana de Armas, Blonde

Should Have Been Nominated: I’m okay with this category, ultimately.

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

• SAG: Yeoh
• BAFTA: Blanchett
• BFCA: Blanchett
• Globes: Blanchett (Drama), Yeoh (Comedy)

Most Likely to Win: Cate Blanchett, Tár. Not a clean sweep, but she’s done enough to seem like the favorite. I’m not sure it’s automatic, but she’s definitely the clubhouse leader.

The Competition: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once. SAG, plus a Globes split. She’s got the precursors to make you think she has a shot. It’s clearly down to two people in this one.

Spoiler Alert: Ana de Armas, Blonde. I think you’d know if people were gonna take Williams. And Riseborough, for as many people as might take her because of the uproar about how she got nominated I can see just as many not taking her (trust me. A lot of them are old and set in their ways or just bitter assholes). Plus, let’s be honest… not enough people actually watched that movie. Which leaves the obvious third choice, the person playing MARILYN MONROE. She’ll get some votes. Probably not enough to truly contend, given how new she is (to them), but enough to make me think she’s third choice here (but honestly, the safer bet is probably Williams, if you really wanna cover your ass).

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Ana de Armas, Blonde

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

5. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie

The Smart Choice: Cate Blanchett, Tár. It’s not the lock it would be had she won SAG, but sweeps are hard to come by. I think, with the more concentrated sample of just the Academy, she makes the most sense as the ‘smart’ choice. BAFTA took her, and I assume a lot of SAG actors still voted for her. With the concentration of Academy voters, that feels like it almost has to work in her favor. But, I am also seeing more and more in recent years that the ‘makes sense’ option is starting to take a back seat to ardent support. So maybe it’s not her in the end.

The Deal: Cate Blanchett feels like she should probably win this, but SAG allows you to take Michelle Yeoh here with complete confidence. But I’m not even sure it’s an upset anymore. Sometimes a SAG win just feels like the result of an oversized voting body and love for a singular person. Other times you see an option everyone likes (Olivia Colman, CODA) beat a somewhat boring option that almost feels like it’s there because it was anointed as such at the beginning of the race (Glenn Close, Power of the Dog). I think this is a really tight race, and could legitimately go either way. The prudent option is still probably Blanchett, but I’m starting to get those CODA feelings and think I might just take Yeoh. To me, it comes down to which version you’re happiest with. Blanchett feels a smidge ‘safer’, while Yeoh has more upside. I’m wrestling with ‘would I rather have Blanchett and be pleasantly surprised by Yeoh winning or would I rather have Yeoh and potentially be a bit deflated if it actually is Blanchett in the end?’ And honestly? Fuck it. Let’s root for joy (and also Joy, but that’s a different category).

The Vote: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

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Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

My Personal Rankings:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
5. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

My Thoughts: Love the actors, ambivalent about the category. I’m thrilled Henry finally got some recognition, but I don’t see anything in that performance that I want to vote for. But him being here is awesome. Hirsch is a one-scene wonder (okay, he’s in like three scenes, but still, it’s 8 minutes of screen time). He’s memorable, but I don’t see enough to take him. Gleeson is wonderful as always, but the role’s not exactly a stretch for him. So I don’t have that extra bit of excitement that makes me want to take him. I’d only settle for him as a choice. Which I don’t need to do, since I’ve got the other two performances I’m more excited for. Keoghan, while he’s a less important part of his film, does have a few jaw-dropping moments. But I also think he’s missing about five minutes of screen time that would really put him over the top for me. Which means that the vote, almost by default, is Ke Huy Quan, who, in another year, would be a sentimental third choice (but fourth on performance). But here, he’s the vote. It’s a strong piece of work that is the emotional anchor of his film, plus the idea of him winning makes me happy. So I’m more than okay voting for him.

My Vote: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Have Been Nominated: Mark Rylance, Bones and All; Brad Pitt, Babylon

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

• SAG: Quan
• BAFTA: Keoghan
• BFCA: Quan
• Globes: Quan

Most Likely to Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once. He’s won almost everything and the comeback story is too good for them to pass up. He’s a pretty overwhelming favorite at this point.

The Competition: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin. He’s got BAFTA, which automatically makes him second choice. But I don’t think he’s the winner if it’s not Quan. I just don’t feel the momentum for him.

Spoiler Alert: Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans. Honestly if anyone’s the upset in this category, I think it’s him. They love a veteran in this category. Remember Alan Arkin over Eddie Murphy? I don’t think it’ll happen, but I do think there’s gonna be more votes for him than you’d think. If (the old white) people aren’t sold on Quan, think about where those votes are gonna go. Split among the remaining choices, or for someone they want to give an award to? Hirsch fits that bill. Just saying.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

4. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

5. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

The Smart Choice: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once. He’s won almost every precursor and there’s no consensus alternate choice. It’s not like Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett, where Yeoh is clearly the one getting the majority of non-Blanchett votes. This is Quan or maybe one of three people. So he’s the one the take.

The Deal: I think it’s gotta be Quan. The category isn’t even set up for an alternative. Henry’s just happy to be here and then you’ve got a vote split with no significant momentum behind either and Judd Hirsch, whose film is in jeopardy of getting fully shut out. So even if people aren’t sold on Quan… who’s gonna get the majority of those votes? You kinda just have to let him lose.

The Vote: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

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Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau, The Whale

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

My Personal Rankings:

1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Hong Chau, The Whale
3. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
5. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

My Thoughts: This category turned out pretty awesome, all things considered. I still cannot fathom that a Marvel performance got nominated (as much as Bassett is amazing, and probably deserved to win in ’93), especially considering how little Bassett has to do in that movie. She’s an easy fifth. Curtis — love her… not a performance I’d vote for. Happy she got her first nomination though. Hsu — amazing. Love that she’s nominated and love the performance. Sadly, she only rates third for me. Just too strong at the top. The vote for me is between Chau and Condon. Both performances are incredible and it’s really tough close. Ultimately I think I’d go Condon, since I think she leaves a bigger lasting impression once the film ends. So I’ll vote for her. But there’s no bad choice here.

My Vote: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Should Have Been Nominated: Lashanna Lynch and/or Sheila Atim, The Woman King

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

• SAG: Curtis
• BAFTA: Condon
• BFCA: Bassett
• Globes: Bassett

Most Likely to Win: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once. I mean, I guess? She has SAG, but really no one feels like a favorite here. So I guess with her being the biggest precursor and the most consensus ‘we like you’ person (I know, I know… Angela Bassett. But keep in mind what group we’re dealing with), I think she’s gotta be considered the favorite.

The Competition: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin. She’s got BAFTA. I prioritize the precursors with actual Academy members in them. So however you’re gonna look at this, I think you have to consider Curtis and Condon your two most likely winners.

Spoiler Alert: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. This feels a bit like Sylvester Stallone in 2015. He won the Globe and BFCA, was a sentimental choice… and then lost to Mark Rylance. She’s got two precursors… but they’re the least important precursors and are voted on by journalists. So she’s there and in contention, but there’s really no momentum to make me think it’s gonna happen, which makes her the spoiler and not a top choice.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4. Hong Chau, The Whale

5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Smart Choice: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once. SAG is 9/10 in the past decade, and the only miss was because the Oscar winner wasn’t nominated there. They’ve only missed 3 times in the past 20 years! And one of those was Kate Winslet for The Reader, for which she won BEST ACTRESS. Meaning they’ve only straight up picked incorrectly once in 20 years. So I think that makes the SAG winner the smart choice, even if it does seem like they just may have sweep-voted the film. But what else is there to hang your hat on this year other than what you want to see happen?

The Deal: Hsu’s just happy to be here and Chau has no momentum (it’s not even a Marcia Gay Harden situation. Harden wasn’t nominated by the precursors; Chau lost all the precursors). So that leaves the obvious three. And I’ve said all along, I don’t believe Bassett’s gonna win. It’s a Marvel movie, and this is the Academy. They just… don’t do blockbuster. If Stallone couldn’t win for Creed, I don’t see how Bassett stands any chance. (But you can do as you like. She’s as reasonable a choice as the other two based on what’s happened thus far.) That leaves Curtis and Condon, which is such a tossup that after a certain point your only justification is just to make up reasons that bolster your argument. Curtis, a beloved actor, won the award voted on by actors (who also sweep-voted her film) and Condon, Irish, won the award voted on by UK voters. The knock against Curtis is that the performance isn’t really all there. Yet, Condon is a relative unknown for them. Some may just say ‘let’s just give Jamie Lee something’ (though they may also say that for Bassett). Others may focus on the work (in which case, it almost has to be Condon, right?). Curtis’ film is more popular (but does that matter?). This is one of the few categories this year where no one truly knows who’s gonna win. In the end, I guess I’ll say take Jamie Lee, but legitimately, neither her nor Condon would surprise me as a winner. Hsu or Chau would surprise me as a winner, because that means voting was really tight all around. Bassett would surprise me only because they don’t respect Marvel and it means they truly overlooked all of that just to vote for her. My gut says they’ll vote Condon, but logic says it’s smarter to take Jamie Lee. So I’ll take Condon and see what happens.

The Vote: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

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Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Triangle of Sadness

My Personal Rankings:

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. The Fabelmans
4. Tár
5. Triangle of Sadness

My Thoughts: Awesome category. This one’s pretty simple for me, in that, while I liked the scripts for Triangle of Sadness, Tár and The Fabelmans, I wouldn’t vote for any of them. And Everything Everywhere, while I think it’s a great and original piece of writing, so much of that film is dependent on the visuals and editing, and I think the writing only goes so far. Not that it couldn’t be the choice, I’m just saying that it’s not automatically the choice for me. Especially when we have Martin McDonagh here, who, after In Bruges and Three Billboards has yet to win a writing Oscar. So even if Banshees weren’t a top two film for me (it is) and even if it weren’t my favorite script in the category (it is), it would probably still be the choice for me. But both choices there are fantastic so I’m happy either way.

My Vote: The Banshees of Inisherin

Should Have Been Nominated: Babylon, The Menu

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

• WGA: Everything Everywhere All at Once
• BAFTA: Banshees of Inisherin
• BFCA: Everything Everywhere All at Once
• Globes: Banshees of Inisherin

Most Likely to Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once. It’s the Best Picture favorite. That gives it the edge in a split precursor scenario.

The Competition: The Banshees of Inisherin. Seems pretty clear it’s the choice if Everything Everywhere doesn’t win.

Spoiler Alert: Tár. They’re not gonna give it to Spielberg and Triangle of Sadness feels like a real long shot, even with the Picture nomination. So it’s this. Some people will look to reward Field here instead of Director or Picture.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Tár

4. Triangle of Sadness

5. The Fabelmans

The Smart Choice: Everything Everywhere All at Once. It’s usually smart to assume the Picture winner is also a favorite in Screenplay, unless it’s one of those years where it’s clear it isn’t (like when Shape of Water clearly wasn’t beating either Three Billboards or Get Out). This feels like a category it could lose, but I have concerns about Banshees’ chances. Plus, it won the two most accurate precursors. BFCA is 10/12 since 2010 and WGA, in that same time, when they missed, all but twice was because the winner wasn’t eligible there (and one of those was because Moonlight was in the wrong category). So by all accounts, this is the smart choice.

The Deal: It should pretty easily be Everything Everywhere. The reasons for Banshees being the vote feel questionable. It won the Globe (a singular category and not wholly accurate. They’re 5/10 the past decade and have only matched winners twice since 2015) and BAFTA (which feels more like a hometown win than anything. McDonagh has three BAFTAs and zero Oscars. Plus, they’re also 5/10 the past decade). Your main argument for it is ‘if it were nominated at WGA, it would have won’. So, to quote Meryl Streep, I have such doubts. Plus (stat time) Picture winners are 62/94 all-time winning Screenplay. That’s roughly two-thirds of the time. Of the 32 losses, 14 came before the 50s. Another 6 came before the 70s. Meaning, in the past 50 years, Picture winners have won a Screenplay category all but 12 times (76%). I look at the two choices and think, “There’s no real heat for Banshees anywhere. Meanwhile everyone fucking loves Everything Everywhere.” It’s like last year. You saw Power of the Dog and CODA and you went, “I feel like I know what people are gonna vote here.” So… you could take Banshees. It’s not unreasonable. I’m just not sure that’s the most prudent decision unless you think there are enough people out there who are either going to say ‘fuck Everything Everywhere’ or go ‘Picture and Director is enough. They don’t Screenplay too’ (which, the hat trick has only happened 8 times ever. So there’s one of your reasons against it winning). Like I said, I don’t see it (in the specific sense, but broadly this is a category I can see flipping among the tossups), but you could go there.

The Vote: Everything Everywhere All at Once

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Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Living

Top Gun: Maverick

Women Talking

My Personal Rankings:

1. Women Talking
2. Living
3. All Quiet on the Western Front
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

My Thoughts: I look at this category and immediately think, “Man, what the hell are they gonna vote for?” Because there’s no obvious runaway winner. Which is a recipe for disaster for voters who only know how to color between the lines the publicity departments drew at the start of the season. And then, for my purposes, I look at it and go, “I don’t really have a whole lot of options here.” Because while I loved Glass Onion, I just can’t bring myself to want to vote for it. If the first Knives Out didn’t win, why would I vote for the one that’s less about the writing and more about the whole vibe of the film? And then Top Gun… I think it’s great as a film, but the writing isn’t one of the first six things I’d single out about it. Then, All Quiet — great work there. But the success of the film is more about the direction and tone. We know the novel. You can’t really adapt that story in 2022 in a way that makes me think it should win a writing Oscar. Which leaves two choices — Living and Women Talking. Neither of these I’d probably want to take on their own terms (despite the great work there), but the category is what it is. So basically I’m deciding — do I give a vote to the great Kazuhiro Ishiguro, or the great Sarah Polley? And, for many reasons, I think I’d rather give a vote for Polley. So I’ll take Women Talking and feel good knowing that at least some good came out of what I feel is a flawed category.

My Vote: Women Talking

Should Have Been Nominated: Catherine Called Birdy, The Batman

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

• WGA: Women Talking
• BAFTA: All Quiet on the Western Front
• BFCA: Women Talking

Most Likely to Win: Women Talking. Two out of three precursors. That makes it the favorite. We’ll discuss the rest in a minute.

The Competition: All Quiet on the Western Front. It has the other precursor and has 9 overall nominations. It’s clearly the other choice.

Spoiler Alert: Top Gun: Maverick. It’s not Glass Onion and it’s probably not Living, and this is a Best Picture nominee. Empirically this is third choice, even though I don’t think anyone who’s done this for more than a minute actually thinks this can win.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Women Talking

2. All Quiet on the Western Front

3. Top Gun: Maverick

4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

5. Living

The Smart Choice: The short answer — I don’t know. You’d think it’s Women Talking. But I’m not so sure it isn’t All Quiet on the Western Front. Here’s my reasoning — first, only three times ever did a non-Best Picture nominee win this category. That’s ever. So that automatically means you’ve got three options. And I think we all know it’s not gonna be Top Gun. (Also, for trivia purposes, the three non-Picture nominees that won were The Bad and the Beautiful, Sling Blade and Gods and Monsters.) Second — only once ever did something win this category with just 2 overall nominations (Sling Blade). Even further, there are only 4 more winners that had even just 3 nominations. The joke about ‘they don’t actually watch that many movies and vote for the same six things’ kinda holds true in this category. Plus All Quiet was ineligible at the WGA, so we don’t really know how these two would fare against one another. So I don’t know what the smart choice is here. My experience and gut tell me it’s Women Talking but history says it’s All Quiet.

(Also, wanna hear a crazy fact? Only 8 times ever has a script won this category and not gotten an acting nomination. And because I have to tell you, the 8 are Bad Girl, Little Women, A Letter to Three Wives, Around the World in 80 Days, Gigi, The Last Emperor, Return of the King and Slumdog Millionaire. Only 3 of those happened in the past 60 years. But unless Living wins, it’s guaranteed to happen this year for the first time in 15 years.)

The Deal: If you just gave me the nominees and asked me to handicap this category, I’d tell you that Glass Onion is just happy to be here (like Knives Out was), that Living has no shot, and that the only reason to even consider Top Gun a possible winner for half-a-second is because the category is so weak. And I’d tell you that All Quiet is a war film and that’s not something they vote for. Which only leaves Women Talking as the choice. Picture nominee, Sarah Polley, socially progressive choice they can feel good about. However, looking at how the Academy usually votes… they really don’t stray too far from the beaten path. And while I know Women Talking is a Picture nominee… how many of them really watched it? Let’s be honest here (not that they don’t vote for stuff they didn’t see all the time). But does that mean they take All Quiet automatically? Or are they just gonna throw a vote to what they assume should probably win? It’s a really tough choice. Because the cynical move is to assume it’s All Quiet. But just thinking about this for real… take a guess how many war films have won for their screenplays. In EITHER Screenplay category. Just guess. What would you think the number could be? And I’m talking combat war films. None of that ‘Gone With the Wind has war sequences’ stuff, or From Here to Eternity. You know what I mean. I’m talking WAR. Being lenient, the number is four. I just don’t see it happening, even though everything says it’s the ‘safe’ choice here, knowing how limited their field of voting is. But I’m just not that cynical. Plus, every fiber of my being says that Women Talking is going to win. And after all this time, I’ve learned to listen to that instinct. So I’ll just be wrong.

The Vote: Women Talking

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Best Editing

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

My Personal Rankings:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Elvis
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Tár

My Thoughts: It’s always good when a handful of the best edited films of the year get nominated for Best Picture, since this category is almost solely about the Picture nominees, and sometimes you get some… less interesting choices, especially in terms of editing. This year turned out okay, though. Tár and Banshees are the two ‘classical’ choices for this category, and don’t really inspire much desire to vote for them out of me. Elvis is a typical Baz Luhrmann visual orgy, but flash doesn’t necessarily mean ‘best’. I think it’s a great piece of work, but I wouldn’t take it over the other choices. Top Gun — standard action film, plane stuff… solid effort. Not really something that feels like it needs to win. Don’t really want it to be my second choice, but here we are. The clear winner though, even if there were some more interesting choices here, is Everything Everywhere. It’s not necessarily the amount of editing, it’s the effectiveness of that editing too that makes it feel like the proper winner. Even when I saw this for the first time back in April, I said, “Oh, this is gonna get nominated.” Because you can just see it. There’s a lot there, but it all has a purpose. It’s the choice.

My Vote: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Have Been Nominated: All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

• ACE: Everything Everywhere All at Once
• BAFTA: Everything Everywhere All at Once
• BFCA: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Most Likely to Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once. Clean sweep, the entire film is built around its editing. This is incredibly straightforward.

The Competition: Elvis. I had this third for a minute, below Top Gun, and realized, “They don’t actually like popcorn flicks in Editing.” It’s probably not second choice in the end, but… it’s Baz, there’s a lot of music, energy, plus makeup and stuff… it’s kinda the total package for them. I don’t necessarily think it’ll happen, but I do think it’s worth noting that this could actually get the second most amount of votes.

Spoiler Alert: Top Gun: Maverick. Of the three movies left, do you really think they’re gonna vote the other two for Editing? If it’s anything besides the top two, it’s this (and this still is probably the second choice. I only put it third to keep you from fully discounting Elvis, which you definitely should not do).

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Top Gun: Maverick

3. Elvis

4. The Banshees of Inisherin

5. Tár

The Smart Choice: Everything Everywhere All at Once. It swept the precursors and, if I’m going to give the film any award on this entire show, it’s this one. They handle like 30 different universes in this movie and seamlessly cut between them. It’s clearly the best option.

The Deal: This feels about as close to a lock as you can get, though I still wouldn’t fully rule out Top Gun, since I do think they’re gonna look to get that something (whether it actually works out for them or not). I don’t expect Everything Everywhere to win as many as I’m projecting it to, and outside of the acting categories, this is one of the top spots where I can see it losing. So Top Gun could be a savvy choice if you’re looking to take a targeted shot somewhere.

The Vote: Everything Everywhere All at Once

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Best Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front

Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

Elvis

Empire of Light

Tár

My Personal Rankings:

1. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Elvis
4. Empire of Light
5. Tár

My Thoughts: This one really became less interesting than it could have been. No Top Gun, no Batman, no Babylon. You knew Empire of Light would get on because it’s Deakins, and all his films are beautifully shot, but it’s clearly one of those ‘Diane Warren/John Williams’ nominations where it’s more about the person than the effort. So he’s not the choice. Tár looks great, but also… not the choice for me. Elvis… lot of color, a lot of movement… doesn’t feel like something I want to vote for. All Quiet looks amazing, and that could be the choice, given the rest of this category. But I think I’m gonna stick with Bardo. Sure, Darius is basically doing a Chivo impression for a lot of the film, but it looks great and I don’t really care in the end. It’s the most visually interesting film in the category for me and feels like the only thing I’d feel comfortable voting for.

My Vote: Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

Should Have Been Nominated: Babylon, The Batman

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

• ASC: Elvis
• BAFTA: All Quiet on the Western Front

BFCA went off the board with Top Gun.

Most Likely to Win: All Quiet on the Western Front. I mean, I guess? Forget the precursors — isn’t this the option that just makes the most sense looking at the category? But if you’re looking for empirical evidence, BAFTA (9/10) has been more accurate than ASC (7/10) this past decade.

The Competition: Elvis. It’s the only other nominee with a precursor. And yet, in almost any other year would you think this would even go higher than fourth choice on a ballot? Crazy, right?

Spoiler Alert: Tár. I can’t see them voting for Deakins for such a minor effort (especially when he couldn’t win for years for major ones), and I can’t imagine Bardo wins its only nomination. No winner since Legends of the Fall has had less than 5 nominations (and even that had 3). You know the last winner was with less than 3 nominations? She Wore a Yellow Ribbon. 1949. And there were two categories then. So, if it’s gonna be anything, it’ll be this.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front

2. Elvis

3. Tár

4. Empire of Light

5. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

The Smart Choice: All Quiet on the Western Front. BAFTA is 9/10 the past decade, and this is a war film in a category without a true standout. I feel like most people could tell you this is the likely winner just glancing at the category. That’s how you know it’s the smart choice.

The Deal: It’s pretty much gonna be All Quiet or Elvis here. Academy voters like easy choices. They don’t look at stuff without a lot of nominations. And Tár doesn’t scream cinematography. So it’s gonna be one of the flashy two. Logic says it’ll be All Quiet, but Elvis makes a legitimate case for itself, simply by being the other choice in an underwhelming category. That said, doesn’t everything about this category scream ‘easy win’ for All Quiet? I say follow that instinct. 9 nominations means it’ll win a few places. This is clearly one of those places.

The Vote: All Quiet on the Western Front

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Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

My Personal Rankings:

1. Babylon
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. The Fabelmans
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once

My Thoughts: Lovely scores, all (and there are at least 2-3 more scores from the shortlist that could easily also be here). Everything Everywhere’s score feels like it gets overwhelmed by the energy and action of the film, as solid as it is. Banshees is a solid piece of work and, all things considered, I’d probably take Burwell (who’s never won) over John Williams (who doesn’t need another one), if I had to. Fabelmans is a wonderful score and is John Williams doing something that feels a little different for him, compared to most of his other work with Spielberg. Still, not something I’d take. To me, the two best and most effective scores are All Quiet, with that loud, driving motif that will stay with you once the film is over, and Babylon, which is another Justin Hurwitz bacchanal of jazz and energy. That was my favorite score of the year, so that’s my vote. That sound just works for me.

My Vote: Babylon

Should Have Been Nominated: Women Talking, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

• BAFTA: All Quiet on the Western Front
• Globes: Babylon

BFCA went off the board with Tár.

Most Likely to Win: Babylon. Two scores split the precursors. How did I decide between them? One of the composers scored La La Land and wrote a big score for a film about Classical Hollywood. When in doubt, skew toward what the old white people like.

The Competition: All Quiet on the Western Front. It’s the only other score with a precursor, and the film has 9 overall nominations. It’s clearly one or the other.

Spoiler Alert: The Banshees of Inisherin. I don’t think they have any real desire to vote for John Williams again, and I’m not sure they’re looking to sweep vote Everything Everywhere. So if we somehow get down this far, it’s probably Carter Burwell who’s gonna get those votes.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front

2. Babylon

3. The Banshees of Inisherin

4. The Fabelmans

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Smart Choice: I think it’s gotta be All Quiet on the Western Front. Of the winning scores of the past 20 years, all but 3 were nominated for Best Picture (and of them, one had 6 nominations and the others had 3). That tells me, given the tossup, to lean toward the film with more nominations and the Picture nomination as the likelier winner.

The Deal: We’ve gotten spoiled in Score the past decade. 6/10 years had one score sweep, plus at least one other year with an obvious choice at the top. Fortunately for us, this year’s two obvious choices split the precursors. So it’s a reasonable heads up and not too bad. There are downsides to both — Babylon clearly wasn’t particularly liked (and no recent winner has had such a ‘mixed’ reaction). And All Quiet isn’t a score that screams ‘music’ the way a lot of winners do, plus there’s questions about the BAFTA sweep-vote (other recent BAFTA sweeps: 1917 and The Favourite. Total Oscars between them: 4). The precursors separately aren’t super helpful. Each is ~60% accurate since 2000. So there’s no real rationale for one choice over the other, and I think you can legitimately make a case for both. I think All Quiet is the safer choice, just because I feel like the collective dislike of Babylon is stronger than the love for All Quiet, but it’s easy to rationalize taking either. But I’ll give the edge to All Quiet’s 9 nominations to Babylon’s 3 and side with that. It’s hard to trust taking a film I know they didn’t particularly love.

The Vote: All Quiet on the Western Front

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Best Original Song

“Applause,” from Tell It Like a Woman

“Hold My Hand,” from Top Gun: Maverick

“Lift Me Up,” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

“Naatu Naatu,” from RRR

“This Is a Life,” from Everything Everywhere All at Once

My Personal Rankings:

1. “Hold My Hand,” from Top Gun: Maverick
2. “Lift Me Up,” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
3. “This Is a Life,” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. “Naatu Naatu,” from RRR
5. “Applause,” from Tell It Like a Woman

My Thoughts: While this was, in large part, the most obvious category we were gonna get, it still feels uninspiring. “Applause” is another Diane Warren special — a forgettable song that’s only nominated because of who wrote it. Almost none of her songs they’ve force onto categories in recent years has been interesting. “Naatu Naatu” — I get that it’s gonna win and I love the energy of the song, but it’s just not for me. I don’t even think it’s the best song in the film. That said, no issues with it winning, I just wouldn’t vote for it. “This Is a Life” is a nice song, but also kinda forgettable and would instantly be one of the weakest winners ever if it won. Nominee but not a winner. Which leaves only two choices, “Lift Me Up” and “Hold My Hand,” two songs that seem more about who sings them and what film they’re in more than anything else. They’re both good songs, but neither feels like a proper winner. If you made me choose, I’ll take Gaga. But this is one of the most “…sure” votes I’ve ever had in this category. There’s no real great choice here.

My Vote: “Hold My Hand,” from Top Gun: Maverick

Should Have Been Nominated: “New Body Rhumba,” from White Noise

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

• BFCA: “Naatu Naatu”
• Globe: “Naatu Naatu”

Most Likely to Win: “Naatu Naatu,” from RRR. It won both of the precursors, the film was a runaway smash and has hardcore fans. It’s the favorite.

The Competition: “Hold My Hand,” from Top Gun: Maverick. What else could it be? Sweep votes don’t happen anymore, so “This Is a Life” would come out of nowhere, and Diane Warren didn’t win for actual hits, so why would she win for the song no one’s listened to from the movie no one even knows exists? The only other choice you could put here is Rihanna, but… this is still the Academy. Which person do you think they’re more likely to vote for here, Gaga or Rihanna? That’s why I ranked them the way I did.

Spoiler Alert: “Lift Me Up,” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Her and Gaga are a toss up for second and third. But I’m keeping this here because, even with the expanded membership, I still fall back on ‘old, white Academy’ tastes until they prove they’re not that anymore.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. “Naatu Naatu,” from RRR

2. “Hold My Hand,” from Top Gun: Maverick

3. “Lift Me Up,” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4. “This Is a Life,” from Everything Everywhere All at Once

5. “Applause,” from Tell It Like a Woman

The Smart Choice: “Naatu Naatu,” from RRR. Do you wanna pick the split between Gaga and Rihanna? I sure don’t. This seems like one of the biggest gimmes on the night. They’ll give it this and feel like they did something good.

The Deal: I don’t see how “Naatu Naatu” loses. And if it does, it means they specifically voted against the Indian song and voted for Lady Gaga. Because let’s be honest — does anyone really think they’re gonna vote for the song from the Marvel movie? And do you really think the majority of the Academy is gonna vote for Rihanna just because she’s Rihanna? If you’re going elsewhere, it’s gotta be Gaga. But why would you do that? Given what RRR has been all year… people in the Academy know that. And they will reward it with this, because it’s a meaningless category to them (plus Gaga just won, so she’s not ‘overdue’). I say take the favorite. It feels like an absolute gimme.

The Vote: “Naatu Naatu,” from RRR

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Best Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

Elvis

The Fabelmans

My Personal Rankings:

1. Babylon
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Elvis
5. The Fabelmans

My Thoughts: To start, Avatar has to be dealt with. Because yes, the entire film is basically animated and you’d think the production design is really just visual effects. But they did actually build the majority of sets in the film so the actors could have something real to work with and then animated over them. You have to make your choice about that before you can decide where to rank it. I came out on — I’m fine with it being nominated but wouldn’t vote for it since I’m more about tactile sets. It just doesn’t feel the same to me, but admittedly I would take it over The Fabelmans, which feels like a pretty standard fare kind of period piece, and Elvis, which feels like its production design is great (because with Baz it usually is), but I don’t remember any of the sets in it. Not a single one. All Quiet — World War I. You know I love me some World War I, and most of the time would just be taking it on that alone. But… 1920s Hollywood, man. You know I can’t pass that up. It’s Babylon for me.

My Vote: Babylon

Should Have Been Nominated: The Banshees of Inisherin

– – – – –

The Analysis:

Precursors:

• ADG: Babylon (Period)
• BAFTA: Babylon
• SDSA: Elvis (Period)
• BFCA: Babylon

Most Likely to Win: Babylon. It basically swept the precursors. Also, it’s set in Hollywood. They love voting for home. This is the clear favorite.

The Competition: Elvis. They love Baz. Moulin Rouge and Gatsby both won. He’ll be a reflex vote. The precursors dictate this isn’t the favorite, but it’s clearly a contender.

Spoiler Alert: All Quiet on the Western Front. War movie, loads of nominations. Definitely in contention. But, if 1917 lost to a film about Hollywood…

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Babylon

2. Elvis

3. All Quiet on the Western Front

4. The Fabelmans

5. Avatar: The Way of Water

The Smart Choice: It’s Babylon. Come on. Don’t you know this voting body? They love shouting out themselves. LA LA LAND won this category! This is the smart choice.

The Deal: It’s 80/20 Babylon. It’s not guaranteed, since they clearly liked Elvis a lot (plus Baz films win this category) and were ambivalent toward Babylon. But I’m not sure you want to guess Elvis unless you really think they’re gonna reject Babylon. But even then… the lure of Hollywood is usually too strong for them. I say they’ll toss it this regardless. If you really think they’re gonna reject it that strongly, you best also vote against it in Score and Costumes Still, I don’t see how it loses here (even though clearly I do, because I just told you how).

The Vote: Babylon

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Best Costume Design

Babylon

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

My Personal Rankings:

1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

My Thoughts: This is a solid category, even if it may not jump out as one. Mrs. Harris — delightful film, lovely costumes. Not the most interesting choice. Everything Everywhere I think has a lot of ingenuity going on in it, even if it does feel like it should win. Black Panther deserves to be here, and they upped their game by having all the unique looks on all the underwater people. So that’s fine. Babylon sounds like it should be the winner here, but the film really doesn’t go nuts with its costumes. They’re great, and they’re memorable, but they don’t go all out the way films of this period normally would, and they’re not showy to the point where you have to vote for it. Meanwhile, Elvis… kinda hard not to vote for it, the way they recreate all those classic outfits he wore. So I think I gotta take that.

My Vote: Elvis

Should Have Been Nominated: The Banshees of Inisherin

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

• CDG: Elvis (Period), Everything Everywhere (Fantasy)
• BAFTA: Elvis
• BFCA: Black Panther

Most Likely to Win: Elvis. It won the precursors with Academy voters, and Baz films usually win here. It’s a clear favorite.

The Competition: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. The first one won and it’s got a precursor. I don’t feel the kind of love for this that was there for the first one. So it’s at best second choice.

Spoiler Alert: Babylon. It’s probably Everything Everywhere, but I really need people to be mindful that the Academy just does not sweep vote anymore. Mrs. Harris wasn’t seen by enough people, and Babylon is at least classical Hollywood and will get some votes. I don’t think we get down this far for it to matter.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Elvis

2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

3. Babylon

4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Smart Choice: Elvis. It won the precursors with actual Academy voters, Baz films almost always win Costumes, and… oh yeah, it’s also ELVIS. I don’t see how you can truly consider anything else as the right choice here.

The Deal: It should be Elvis in a landslide. I know Black Panther is still there and the other one won and all of that. I just don’t see them doing it. It’s not an insane thing to guess, if you want to take a shot. I just think you want to be on the side of the film with the precursors that contain voters and the director whose films always win for their costumes that’s also about one of the most uniquely and memorably dressed people in the past century. Just feels like the smart move.

The Vote: Elvis

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Best Makeup & Hairstyling

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

The Whale

My Personal Rankings:

1. The Whale
2. The Batman
3. Elvis
4. All Quiet on the Western Front
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

My Thoughts: Black Panther is fine. More of the same from the previous film. No complaints there. All Quiet is great war stuff. There’s always a place for that. Elvis… lotta hairstyles. Understandable. The Batman… Colin Farrell as the Penguin… that would be the choice most years. But Brendan Fraser in all that makeup, on screen for the majority of that movie… this is no contest.

My Vote: The Whale

Should Have Been Nominated: Babylon

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

• MU+HS: Elvis x2, The Whale, Black Panther, Everything Everywhere
• BAFTA: Elvis
• BFCA: Elvis

Most Likely to Win: Elvis. It won at all the precursors and it’s Elvis hair. Simple as that.

The Competition: The Whale. It’s a (potentially winning) actor in a physically transformative role. If not for the precursors losses, this is the odds-on favorite.

Spoiler Alert: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. This probably should be All Quiet, given it being a major Picture nominee, but I feel like a lot of voters will, if they even make it this far down the ballot (spoiler: they absolutely won’t), will default to this as a choice.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. The Whale

2. Elvis

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4. All Quiet on the Western Front

5. The Batman

The Smart Choice: The Whale. I know Elvis. I do. And if Austin Butler is gonna win Actor, then Elvis is probably the choice. But, look at recent winners — Tammy Faye, Ma Rainey, Vice, Darkest Hour (and that’s only going back five years) — nominated actors physically transformed. That’s what they like. Brendan Fraser as a 600 pound man… that feels too good for them to pass up.

The Deal: I think you can make a legitimate case for both The Whale and Elvis. This category will likely tip their hand as to who’s more likely to win Actor. Elvis does have the fat suit toward the end and has all the hair. But the transformation of Brendan Fraser is so damn baity, I don’t know if they can pass on that. But it’s a legitimate 50/50. If you’re taking Fraser, you probably want The Whale here. If you’re taking Butler, you probably want Elvis here. Could there be a split? Sure. There always could. But you’ve got a situation where one effort won most of the precursors, but the other is tied to a likely acting winner and is a transformative performance. Both of these fit the mold of winners, so you pretty much just have to pick your poison and hope for the best. Both are legitimately good options. I say pair this to Actor and cross your fingers.

The Vote: The Whale

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Best Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Top Gun: Maverick

My Personal Rankings:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. The Batman
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

My Thoughts: Avatar wins this by a mile, and we all know that. So I’m not even gonna talk about that. You know what the deal is there. Black Panther I don’t think needed to be here. Marvel’s effects have always been just kind of ‘ehh’. Plus there’s the whole thing about their mistreatment of their VFX artists. So even if I somehow were gonna rate that higher than fifth, I’d still never vote for it because of that. They don’t deserve a reward on any level. Top Gun — great practical effects. But it’s not really an effects-driven film. A lot of the film takes place on land and is character-based. It doesn’t really rate that highly for me, in the end. The Batman — great effects in a smaller way. Not something that wins, but a great nominee. All Quiet — great stuff there. War stuff, practical. I’m glad this category is largely filled with films that strive for more practical effects than CGI effects. That said… Avatar is the winner.

My Vote: Avatar: The Way of Water

Should Have Been Nominated: Thirteen Lives (but I’m fine with these five)

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

• VES: Avatar (9 wins, Best Effects)
• BAFTA: Avatar
• BFCA: Avatar

Most Likely to Win: Avatar: The Way of Water. It literally swept the guild. The only times it lost was to itself. I’m not sure that’s ever happened before.

The Competition: Top Gun: Maverick. Always look to the Picture nominees. And of the two left, I’ll take the major box office hit everyone loves.

Spoiler Alert: All Quiet on the Western Front. If it’s not second, it’s third. It’s not a difficult year.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

2. Top Gun: Maverick

3. All Quiet on the Western Front

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

5. The Batman

The Smart Choice: Avatar: The Way of Water. I hope you don’t require an explanation for this.

The Deal: Avatar is gonna win.

The Vote: Avatar: The Way of Water

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Best Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Elvis

Top Gun: Maverick

My Personal Rankings:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. Elvis
5. The Batman

My Thoughts: All great choices. They’re doing quite well with one category. The Batman is probably the lesser of these choices, which is saying something. It’s great. I just think the other choices play with sound in more interesting ways. Elvis, of course, is all about the music, and there’s a lot of great stuff there. Top Gun, of course, is the planes, and that speaks for itself. All Quiet… war film. Love me some war film sound design. But Avatar… the water-based narrative alone… you can feel how you want about the overall film and the writing and all of that, but you cannot argue with the technical aspects of it. I feel like I’ll come off this as a choice over time, but for now, I’m taking it.

My Vote: Avatar: The Way of Water

Should Have Been Nominated: Babylon

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

• BAFTA: All Quiet on the Western Front
• CAS: Top Gun
• MPSE: Top Gun (SFX+Foley), Elvis (Music), All Quiet on the Western Front (Foreign Language)

Most Likely to Win: All Quiet on the Western Front. BAFTA is king here. Since 2007, they are 14/15 straight up in guessing at least one Sound winner. Plus, oh yeah, WAR FILM.

The Competition: Top Gun: Maverick. CAS, SFX+Foley, plus it’s a monster hit and everyone loves it. Statistically, it’s not the favorite, but it’s real close.

Spoiler Alert: Elvis. It’s the only other nominee with a precursor. The Batman’s not in contention, and if the first Avatar lost Sound, what chance does this one have. Though, they also haven’t really gone for something music-related since going to one Sound category, so even this is a longshot at best.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front

2. Top Gun: Maverick

3. Elvis

4. Avatar: The Way of Water

5. The Batman

The Smart Choice: You can make a case for both All Quiet on the Western Front and Top Gun: Maverick. Both Picture nominees with a bunch of nominations. The plus for All Quiet is more nominations and BAFTA, which is 14/15 since 2007 (it also won MPSE Foreign Language, too). The drawback is that it lost CAS and isn’t as openly loved as Top Gun. The plus for Top Gun is that it’s a popular movie that made a boatload of money and a lot of very important people think that movie singlehandedly saved the future of theatrical distribution. They will probably look to try to get it a win somewhere, and this is one of the two categories that makes the most sense for it. When I think about how the Academy as a group would vote, and which film is most likely to catch those stray votes that put it over the top in a category like this… it’s probably Top Gun more so than All Quiet. So, they’re both smart choices, and it really comes down to what you view as the most important piece of information.

The Deal: It’s a 50/50. Both Top Gun and All Quiet are great choices. The CAS loss for All Quiet is the thing that’s fully keeping me from 1000% telling you that’s gonna win. But it won BAFTA, and 14/15 is nothing to sneeze at, whether they sweep-voted the film or not. And the Foreign Language MPSE win isn’t nothing either. If only it could’ve been nominated at MPSE ‘proper’, then we’d have a much better idea of what we’re looking at. Still, Top Gun has CAS, SFX+Foley and is clearly a film everybody likes a lot. It’s gonna be a tight race and it could go either way. I’m gonna lean slightly toward All Quiet, but this feels like 2019 with Ford v Ferrari and 1917, where the precursors split and both were great options. We just have one category instead of two now. So pick your poison and hope for the best.

The Vote: All Quiet on the Western Front

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Best Animated Feature

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

The Sea Beast

Turning Red

My Personal Rankings:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
3. Turning Red
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
5. The Sea Beast

My Thoughts: Not a great year for animation, but they salvaged it with some good choices. The Sea Beast was nice enough, but feels like a weak nominee compared to some other films that could’ve been here. Puss in Boots is actually quite good. It clearly learned something from Into the Spider-Verse and took care to make its animation style interesting rather than doing the same old CGI crap all the other films do. Which helps make the storytelling feel like more than just the regular old thing (which it still kind of is). I’m glad it’s not a throwaway #5 for me. Turning Red is lesser Pixar, but still good Pixar, and it rates solidly here. Problem is, it’s up against two amazing pieces of work. Marcel the Shell is just… I love that movie so much. And honestly it’s probably my favorite of the films on this list, but I think the artistry on display in Pinocchio is too good to pass up as a choice. Marcel is taking real places and animating within them, but Pinocchio is full on stop-motion and creates every inch of its world by hand. I know it shouldn’t matter in the end, but in a 50.1 to 49.9 toss up, I’ll take Pinocchio.

My Vote: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Should Have Been Nominated: Mad God

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The Analysis:

Precursors:

• PGA: Pinocchio
• BAFTA: Pinocchio
• BFCA: Pinocchio
• Globes: Pinocchio
• Annies: Pinocchio (5 wins + Best Feature), Marcel the Shell (3 wins + Indie Feature), Puss in Boots (2 wins)

Most Likely to Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. Look at those precursors. I’d call it a lock, but, you can’t ever rule out Disney here (remember Brave? Big Hero 6?). But even so… goddamn.

The Competition: Turning Red. We’ve seen this before. They will default to Disney/Pixar if they don’t agree with an alternate choice. There’s a reason the studio has only lost this category six times ever (and only twice in the past 15 years). So don’t just discount this as an option, even though it seems pretty clear all the momentum is with Pinocchio.

Spoiler Alert: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On. It’s the only film left that feels like it’ll have strong support from a dedicated group of people. The Sea Beast doesn’t seem like it can hang, and Puss in Boots would truly shock me if it won. This is the one that will have people who love it and will vote for it over the other choices. If we get this far, this will win.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

2. Turning Red

3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

5. The Sea Beast

The Smart Choice: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. It’s won everything, and everyone loves Guillermo. This seems like a done deal all around.

The Deal: I should call this one of the biggest locks of the night, but you really don’t understand just how much they try to default to Disney/Pixar. You have to give Turning Red at least a 10% chance at this and take that 10% seriously. I don’t think enough people actually saw Turning Red to matter and I think Guillermo is a strong enough presence to carry Pinocchio to an easy win. But don’t just assume it, because you can’t.

The Vote: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

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Best International Feature

All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)

Close (Belgium)

Eo (Poland)

The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

My Personal Rankings:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
2. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
3. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
4. Close (Belgium)
5. Eo (Poland)

My Thoughts: A solid category, though almost anything they nominated here was gonna have to live in the shadow of All Quiet. That’s the clear and obvious vote, so I won’t even waste time on it. Instead, I’ll talk about the rest of the category, which I suspect most people wouldn’t even bother watching on their own. Eo is essentially Au Hasard Balthazar made today. It’s got a lot of visual flourishes on it and is catered to today’s audiences, but it’s a story that’s been made before. A good story, but if you’ve seen Au Hasard Balthazar, this isn’t really giving you anything new. Close is a very beautiful story and well-told. It just unfortunately ends up fourth for me in a category with strong choices. Argentina 1985 is a trial movie, and those, as we know, are always interesting. It’s a strong film, just not the vote. The Quiet Girl is one of those movies that is so much bigger than it seems. The emotional weight of that movie is astounding. It might not click for everyone, but I loved it. It’s a beautiful film. It’s a good category this year, and all are worth seeing. But we know what the vote is.

My Vote: All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

Should Have Been Nominated: Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Mexico), Holy Spider (Denmark)

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The Analysis:

I don’t much think we need to talk about precursors here, do we?

Most Likely to Win: All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany). It’s nominated for Best Picture and has 9 nominations. This isn’t a trick.

The Competition: Argentina, 1985 (Argentina). It won the Globe. That’s something. I don’t think it quite matters what you have second, but this feels like the right choice. The Globes tend to get it right 2/3 of the time.

Spoiler Alert: The Quiet Girl (Ireland). It’s the only other film with major nominations, getting multiple BAFTA noms. One could put Close here, having won NBR, but I don’t think we get this far down the ballot for it to matter.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

2. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)

3. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

4. Close (Belgium)

5. Eo (Poland)

The Smart Choice: All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) is gonna win this. When it’s nominated for Best Picture, it’s gonna win here. 9 nominations overall means you can’t even entertain the notion that it might lose. You just have to let it happen.

The Deal: It’s the biggest lock of the night. Take the easy one and move along.

The Vote: All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

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Best Documentary Feature

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Fire of Love

A House Made of Splinters

Navalny

My Personal Rankings:

1. Fire of Love
2. Navalny
3. All That Breathes
4. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
5. A House Made of Splinters

My Thoughts: What an uninspiring year for documentaries. I didn’t even particularly like much on the shortlist either. A House Made of Splinters was just okay. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed felt like two documentaries in one, neither wholly interesting to me. All That Breathes is well-made but feels too… staged. Navalny I liked just because the story is awesome, but doesn’t feel like something I’d want to actually vote for. So I guess I’ll take, as my choice, the documentary about the couple who just liked traveling to volcanoes. Why not? Didn’t like anything else, so let’s take the love story.

My Vote: Fire of Love

Should Have Been Nominated: Moonage Daydream, Bad Axe

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The Analysis:

Most Likely to Win: Navalny. I’m glad a consensus started to emerge as we got closer to the ceremony. Because when nominations were announced I had zero idea what would win. But this has started winning categories left and right (including the PGA) and really is the only doc that makes sense as a winner, based on how they usually vote.

The Competition: Fire of Love. It’s a love story. Doesn’t feel like a proper winner, but typically if they don’t like the ‘heavy’ subject matter, they’ll go for something lighter that makes them feel good. That’s (kinda?) this.

Spoiler Alert: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed. The director has won before (for Citizenfour), and it’s about the opioid crisis. So there are reasons to think it could (and even might) win, but the subject matter isn’t totally their speed and I haven’t seen the types of precursor wins I’d want to see for me to see it as a winner. It’s there, just not a favorite.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Navalny

2. Fire of Love

3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

4. All That Breathes

5. A House Made of Splinters

The Smart Choice: Navalny. It’s gotta be. It won the PGA, has a couple of other notable wins and is the only subject matter I could see this branch actually voting for. They will look at voting for this as a vote against Putin. And they love that shit. So I think it’s the smartest option in a category that doesn’t have anything that jumps out as a clear choice.

The Deal: You’ve got options here. I don’t think A House Made of Splinters or All That Breathes fit the profile of a winner, but the other three feel choosable. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed has some precursors and is from a previous winner, but typically it’s not about what won prior awards for them. It’s stature or subject matter. And while it’s is partially about the opioid epidemic, I’m not really sure it fits the profile of what they usually vote for, so I’m skeptical of its chances. Fire of Love fits as a winner only in the sense of them sometimes liking something lighter fare. But even then, ‘lighter’ for them is 20 Feet from Stardom. So it’s nominally checking a box, but I’m not really sure it’s something they’re gonna flock to as a choice. Which leaves Navalny, the only thing that actually does fit the profile of something they tend to vote for. You have the procedural narrative of “they tried to poison me, now I’m out to uncover that it was actually them” and you have the built in ‘vote against Putin’, which you know they’ll eat up. It’s right up their alley and I think that’s more than enough to make it the best option in this category. But, as I said, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed and Fire of Love also feel like reasonable choices. Documentary is always a crapshoot when there’s no clear #1.

The Vote: Navalny

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Best Documentary Short

The Elephant Whisperers

Haulout

How Do You Measure a Year?

The Martha Mitchell Effect

Stranger at the Gate

My Personal Rankings:

1. How Do You Measure a Year?
2. The Martha Mitchell Effect
3. Stranger at the Gate
4. Haulout
5. The Elephant Whisperers

My Thoughts: I like when a Shorts category almost entirely matches the category I’d have nominated. I don’t necessarily think it’s a strong category, but I do think they mostly got it right. I’m not the biggest fan of The Elephant Whisperers (it feels too polished and too much like a feature doc for me), but I get why it’s here. Haulout is awesome, but ultimately, for a category that is more about the message than the substance, I feel like this one is largely just awesome shots of walruses with a message tacked on at the end. Stranger at the Gate I think is an interesting story and is one of those things I can see them turning into a feature, but I don’t know if the doc fully comes together. It feels like it stretches a bit to make the run time. The Martha Mitchell Effect is a great story (and feels like it could easily have been a feature doc), and the subject is something that should win this category. But my personal favorite doc here is How Do You Measure a Year. Not wholly substantive on the surface, but I do love the concept and I do think, in a year without a major issue to vote for, I’ll take the one that moved me the most on a personal level.

My Vote: How Do You Measure a Year?

Should Have Been Nominated: Nuisance Bear

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The Analysis:

There are no real precursors here. Most years it comes down to looking at what the subject matter is for all the shorts and seeing what subject matters have won in recent years so you can see how they usually vote (because they do have a type in this category).

Most Likely to Win: The Elephant Whisperers. I mean, sure? This category is always about the issue. Problem is, there’s no major issue this year for them to vote for. And there’s nothing like The Queen of Basketball for them to rally around as a good story either. So I guess we’ll go with the short that’s the most designed for people to like that has the most money behind it as the favorite.

The Competition: How Do You Measure a Year?. I love the concept, and I think, if people watched all five of these, there’s no way this wouldn’t be one of the top two vote getters. And without the usual stuff in this category, that’s really the only way to try to parse this.

Spoiler Alert: Stranger at the Gate. Haulout doesn’t feel right, and maybe it’s The Martha Mitchell Effect. But this one feels like it best fits into the kind of broad subject matter people might like to vote for. Plus Malala was an EP, which may mean something to them. So let’s put it here.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. The Elephant Whisperers

2. How Do You Measure a Year?

3. Stranger at the Gate

4. The Martha Mitchell Effect

5. Haulout

The Smart Choice: I guess it’s The Elephant Whisperers. I don’t fucking know. Some years Doc Short is easy, other years it can be anything. I got a 5 in this category 2 years ago. You never really know. But this is the one that feels most geared toward getting people to vote for it. It’s also the most overly uplifting doc, which, absent a major issue they can vote for, feels like the smartest way to go in a time when there’s a lot to be depressed about in the world.

The Deal: Most years, I’d say, “Elephant Whisperers is designed to be the one they vote for, but I don’t think it’s gonna win, so let’s try to find an alternate.” This year, I don’t fucking care. I’m just gonna take it and see what they vote for. Because honestly, any of these could win. I’d probably say don’t vote for Haulout, because that would surprise me if it won. The rest, all fair game. The Martha Mitchell Effect has the whole gaslighting and not believing women theme, but it feels like two years past the point where they’ll feel like they’re accomplishing something by voting for it. Stranger at the Gate kinda fits — it’s got the message of learning to let go of hate and get along with other people — but the doc isn’t really that great. But… Malala. So I don’t know. Maybe. How Do You Measure a Year is just a nice little doc that I’m probably overrating, since there’s no real message there (if anything the impact comes from viewers thinking about their own kids getting older and the emotions that stem from that), but it’s kind of a feast/famine option that I do think has a legitimate chance here. But Elephant Whisperers is the doc that feels engineered to win this. Most other years, I’d tell you it’s not gonna win. And if and when it doesn’t, I’ll think (and say), “Yeah, that makes sense, because they never vote for stuff like this.” But honestly, I don’t know what the fuck they’re gonna do, so just give me the easy one and let’s see what happens. Give me a 4 or a 5. It’s fine. I don’t base my worth around how I do in this thing. I just try to do my best to parse the categories. And this category is one of the nearly impossible ones. So whatever happens is fine. (Personally, were this a year or two ago, I’d probably be putting How Do You Measure a Year on my ballot. Just saying.)

The Vote: The Elephant Whisperers

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Best Live Action Short

An Irish Goodbye

Ivalu

Le Pupille

Night Ride

The Red Suitcase

My Personal Rankings:

1. The Red Suitcase
2. An Irish Goodbye
3. Le Pupille
4. Ivalu
5. Night Ride

My Thoughts: A solid category. I’d personally only have made one major change to it, so I think they did about as well as they could have done. Night Ride is a nice short, but aside from the particulars, you’ve seen it before. Nothing groundbreaking there. Ivalu is also nice, and quite well made, but it just isn’t the choice for me. Le Pupille is incredibly well-made and very delightful, just also not something I want to vote for. A bit too overdone by half. Irish Goodbye — again, you’ve seen it before and it’s very likable. It’s the exact thing that wins this category most of the time. But, The Red Suitcase is the short that landed most for me. That’s the one that actually made me feel something. So that’s my vote.

My Vote: The Red Suitcase

Should Have Been Nominated: The Right Words

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The Analysis:

There are no precursors here. The most you can do with this category is see as many of the shorts as you can and go by what they normally vote for. Usually you can kind of reason it out between one or two, though sometimes it can be tough.

Most Likely to Win: An Irish Goodbye. This is so entirely up their alley that it almost feels unfair. If it wasn’t so on the nose, I would call this a lock. It feels like a trick, this is so entirely the kind of thing they vote for.

The Competition: Le Pupille. This is also up their alley, but it’s very stylized. I’m not sure what that means for it. But if for some reason An Irish Goodbye isn’t gonna win, this should almost certainly (based on their history) be the one that does.

Spoiler Alert: The Red Suitcase. Looking at what else is here, Ivalu doesn’t fit the mold of what they tend to vote for and Night Ride maybe could be a spoiler, but it doesn’t have the hallmarks of a winner. This at least carries some emotion to it and that might carry it to a few votes to moderately contend. I don’t really see us getting past those first two, though.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. An Irish Goodbye

2. Le Pupille

3. The Red Suitcase

4. Night Ride

5. Ivalu

The Smart Choice: An Irish Goodbye and Le Pupille are so incredibly their vibe that I can’t fathom guessing anything else but one of those two. The idea that neither of those will win goes against everything I’ve seen the Academy do in this category for the past 20+ years. An Irish Goodbye is much more of an obvious winner here, with Le Pupille being a bit more stylized and more likely to potentially turn some people off. Irish Goodbye is much more of a boring, safe choice for them, which is why I’m pretty convinced it’s winning. They look for a particular type of short here, and it wins basically every time it’s nominated. Plus, it’s a Shorts category. You don’t really know what’s gonna happen (since it’s based on whoever actually watches the category and votes), so you might as well take the thing that tends to win like 90% of the time.

The Deal: Either An Irish Goodbye or Le Pupille will certainly win this. The ‘obvious’ choice between them is An Irish Goodbye, but it almost feels too obvious, so I think you could potentially aim for Le Pupille to go against the grain. I will also say that The Red Suitcase is the only other potential spoiler you want to look at (and if you’re doing a Scorecard, don’t put it lower than third). Anything else winning here would really surprise me, as it means their voting methods actually have changed as deeply as a Shorts category, which has not been the case for a long time.

The Vote: An Irish Goodbye

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Best Animated Short

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

The Flying Sailor

Ice Merchants

My Year of Dicks

An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

My Personal Rankings:

1. An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
2. Ice Merchants
3. My Year of Dicks
4. The Boy, the Mole the Fox and the Horse
5. The Flying Sailor

My Thoughts: Another category where I think they largely did well. I fully and wholeheartedly think three of these five are the three best shorts that were on their shortlist. The Flying Sailor is a great short visually but felt like it lacked enough substance to be the vote. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse looks amazing, but is another one of those ‘storybook’ type shorts you see nominated a bunch. Those rarely do much of anything for me, as much as I love the hand-drawn animation. My Year of Dicks is wonderful. Full stop. It just unfortunately is my third favorite of the three best shorts. Ice Merchants is a beautiful short and looks incredible and, in another year, could be the vote. But I love the anarchic stop-motion energy of An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It. It’s so creative and I love when shorts aren’t afraid to get weird and meta. That’s easily my vote.

My Vote: An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

Should Have Been Nominated: Passenger

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The Analysis:

No real precursors here. You can usually guess the favorite just by looking at the category most years. We don’t even have to factor in Disney/Pixar here. So really this one’s simpler than most years.

Most Likely to Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse. It’s the highest profile nominee and all the smart money is on it and precursors and yada yada yada. You know how this works. There’s always a clear #1 going in and this is this year’s.

The Competition: An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It. Clearly the title stands out. And, if people actually sat down and watched all five of these shorts, I suspect a fair amount would really like this. And now, maybe I’m overrating its chances. Maybe it’s too clever for its own good. But I think this is the closest to filling the center of the Venn diagram that is ‘things they vote for in this category’.

Spoiler Alert: My Year of Dicks. The title obviously also stands out. Though, narratively, this isn’t something that actually wins for them. But it’s also a Shorts category, and at this point, you never truly know how they’re gonna vote. So it’s definitely in the top three an could easily win. But for this section, looking at how they normally vote, it’s gotta only be the spoiler.

Scorecard Ballot Rankings:

1. Ice Merchants

2. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

3. My Year of Dicks

4. An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

5. The Flying Sailor

The Smart Choice: Honestly, the smart choice is probably The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse. But, you know what? I remember when the ‘smart’ choice was Room on the Broom and Mr Hublot won, or when Revolting Rhymes was a major choice and Dear Basketball won. Or LAST YEAR, when Robin Robin was nominated (by Aardman, no less!) and lost to The Windshield Wiper. These storybook style shorts are nominated constantly and they never win. So I don’t know how much longer I can keep pretending like these things are actually the favorite. Personally, if you asked me, I think the winner is more likely to be either An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It or My Year of Dicks. And I’d go further to say that even Ice Merchants has a legitimate shot at winning too. Because Ice Merchants, narratively, is closer to what they like here than The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse. The other two, ‘An Ostrich’ and My Year of Dicks, have very memorable titles. And I think that might get them votes on that basis alone. But, if you want to go the ‘traditional’ route, then yeah, The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse is the smart choice.

The Deal: I don’t fucking know what’s gonna win. If you wanna play it industry standard safe, take The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse. Everyone seems to think that’s gonna win. But again, I’ve seen this story play out before. So I’m not fully buying it until it happens. Personally, I’d take ‘An Ostrich’ or ‘My Year of Dicks’ as the crazy choices. But you know what? I’m feeling nuts this year — let’s vote for Ice Merchants. I don’t really care anymore. And I think that it best approximates what they like in a short, so let’s take that and see what the hell happens. Smart money’s on The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse, but I’ve seen them vote against that type of short so many times that I need to see it win before I can put it on my own ballot. Plus, it’s a Shorts category. Expect a 4, be happy with anything less.

The Vote: Ice Merchants

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Here’s a breakdown of how I see each film performing:

 

Everything Everywhere All at Once
11 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing
Could win: Actress, Supporting Actress (Curtis)
Won’t win: Supporting Actress (Hsu), Score, Song, Costume Design

It’s gonna win the most awards. The only question is how many. 4 seems like a minimum. Picture, Director, Supporting Actor are all gimmes. And between Editing or Screenplay I suspect it’ll win at least one of those (if not both). Actress and Supporting Actress are both very much in play too. I don’t think Costumes, Score or Song are happening (and obviously it’s not winning the same category twice). So anywhere from 4-7 wins seems right, with 5-6 being the most likely. 7 are also very doable, if it pulls off both extra acting wins. But also, no Picture winner has won more than 4 awards since 2011, and nothing’s won more than 6 since 2008. So do expect this to lose somewhere in one of the ‘favorable’ categories. I can’t really see this ending up with more than 6. The question is really what’s going to happen in those two acting categories. I feel like it’ll balance in the end, I just can’t tell you specifically how.

 

All Quiet on the Western Front
9 nominations

Will win: International Feature
Will likely win: Cinematography
Could win: Adapted Screenplay, Score, Production Design, Sound
Won’t win: Picture, Makeup & Hairstyling, Visual Effects

This is an interesting one. It’s gonna win 1 for sure, because International Feature. Past that… could be 4 more wins, could be 0. Picture won’t happen, nor will Makeup or Visual Effects. But everything else is firmly in play. Production Design is the most unlikely, but it’s a top two option in Screenplay, Cinematography, Score and Sound. So, 1 is the floor, 5 is the ceiling, with 2-4 being the most likely spot. I suspect Cinematography will happen, and then Screenplay, Score and Sound all could go either way. I think 3 wins or 4 wins are the likeliest outcomes here. International Feature, Cinematography and then Sound and/or Score.

 

The Banshees of Inisherin
9 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win:
Could win: Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score
Won’t win: Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor (Gleeson), Supporting Actor (Keoghan), Editing

It feels weird to think this is going to go 0-9… but it looks like it can go 0-9. It has no traction in Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor (for either nominee) OR Editing. Score is a long shot at best. Which means automatically 2 wins is the absolute ceiling on this without a major surprise. And those two (Supporting Actress, Screenplay) are 50/50s where it’s the underdog in both. I feel like it almost has to pull something off, since there have only been 8 films ever with at least 9 nominations that went home empty-handed. But between Screenplay and Supporting Actress, could I tell you which it’s more likely to be? Absolutely not. Supporting Actress makes more sense, given that category, but Screenplay somehow feels more likely to happen. I’d pencil this in for 0 wins or 1 win.

 

Elvis
8 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win: Costume Design
Could win: Actor, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Makeup & Hairstyling
Won’t win: Picture, Sound

Take away Picture and it’s theoretically in contention for everything. I don’t expect Sound, Editing or Cinematography to come through at all. Actor is a 50/50, Makeup is 50/50 (and tied to Actor), and Production Design is possible, but 60/40 against. Costume Design seems pretty assured though. 1 win is the floor for this. And 3 wins seems like the alternate case, since if it wins Actor it’s likely also winning Makeup. 2 wins would be a surprise, because that means either an Actor/Makeup split or that it won Production Design. Keep an eye out for this to overperform, but I think we’d all be surprised if this ended up with more than 3 wins total even on a good night.

 

The Fabelmans
7 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win:
Could win: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Score, Production Design
Won’t win: Actress, Original Screenplay

Since Saving Private Ryan, Spielberg’s films have only won a combined 4 Oscars, 3 of which were for acting. The only stray win it picked up was Lincoln for Production Design (which I’ve talked about for a decade as a major surprise). This film feels in line to follow that trajectory. I can’t see it winning Actress or Screenplay in any scenario. Score feels really unlikely. John Williams hasn’t won in 30 years, despite 22 nominations in that time. Supporting Actor would be a major upset but is theoretically possible if people decide they don’t want Ke Huy Quan to win. Production Design, after Lincoln, you can’t fully rule out, but given the competition, would be a huge shocker. Which only leaves Picture and Director as its only real chances, and based on how the season’s played out, those feel unlikely too. So I’m thinking 0-7 here with 1 surprise win being the ceiling for this. But even then, I couldn’t really tell you where the surprise win would come from.

 

Tár
6 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win:
Could win: Actress, Original Screenplay
Won’t win: Picture, Director, Editing, Cinematography

I can’t see this winning anything except Actress. Screenplay is the only other contender there, and that’s a tall order. Cinematography would shock all of us, as would Picture, Director and Editing. So it’s Actress as the likeliest candidate (which isn’t the guarantee it seemed to be a month ago and almost feels like it might even be a slight upset at this point) and then Screenplay in a major upset scenario. So it’s 0 wins or 1 win for this.

 

Top Gun: Maverick
6 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win:
Could win: Song, Editing, Visual Effects, Sound
Won’t win: Picture, Adapted Screenplay

It’s not winning Picture or Screenplay. Visual Effects only happens on a major upset of Avatar. Song is theoretically possible, but unlikely. Which leaves Editing and Sound as its only real chances, and it’s in a figurative dogfight for those. I think this is an 0-6 ‘nominations are the reward’ situation, but it’s possible this ekes out a win somewhere, with Sound being the most likely place. 0 wins or 1 win for this. 2 wins would be a surprise, but isn’t impossible.

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
5 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win:
Could win: Supporting Actress, Song, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling
Won’t win: Visual Effects

This is in contention for everything, but unlike 2018 where they rushed to vote for it, I don’t think they have much of a need or desire to do so again here. Visual Effects absolutely will not happen. Song feels very unlikely. Supporting Actress would be a surprise. Costumes and Makeup are the only two real shots it has, and both feel unlikely given the competition. So I’m expecting a comfortable 0-5 for this.

 

Avatar: The Way of Water
4 nominations

Will win: Visual Effects
Will likely win:
Could win:
Won’t win: Editing, Production Design, Sound

Visual Effects is a done deal, so that’s 1 win minimum. I’d be shocked if it won Production Design, and Editing and Sound feel like they aren’t happening. So I think this is the 1 obvious win and that’s all.

 

Babylon
3 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win: Production Design
Could win: Score
Won’t win: Costume Design

It’s clear they didn’t much care for this film, which should mark it as something very likely to lose all three of its categories. But it also feels in contention for most of them. It’s the favorite in Production Design (but could lose to Elvis overperforming) and is in a 50/50 for Score. Costumes feels like a full no go. So 1 win feels likely, 2 wins is very possible, 3 wins seems insane, and 0 wins isn’t out of the question. It’s really going to come down to if they give it Score or if they decide they don’t want it anywhere. I think it’ll take the token Production Design win and stay there.

 

The Batman
3 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win:
Could win:
Won’t win: Makeup & Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Sound

This is going 0-3, but that’s fine. 3 nominations is still a victory for this.

 

Triangle of Sadness
3 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win:
Could win: Original Screenplay
Won’t win: Picture, Director

It’s not winning Picture or Director, but if they’re feeling frisky, Adapted Screenplay is possible. Unlikely though. So this should end up with 0 wins.

 

The Whale
3 nominations

Will win:
Will likely win: Actor, Makeup & Hairstyling
Could win: Supporting Actress
Won’t win:

It’s the favorite in Actor and Makeup, but can easily lose both of those to Elvis. Supporting Actress is out. So 2 wins is the ceiling and 0 wins is also possible. It seems unlikely to split. In the broad sense, 0 wins feels more likely, given their history with Aronofsky, but in context, the 2 wins feel likely. I’d be fascinated to see how a 1 win split goes.

 

The rest:

• Women Talking should win Adapted Screenplay.
• RRR will win Song.
• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio will win Animated Feature.
• Navalny will most likely win Documentary. Fire of Love has an outside shot, as does All the Beauty and the Bloodshed.
• In Doc Short, The Elephant Whisperers is the favorite but How Do You Measure a Year? could surprise (as could Stranger at the Gate).
• For Live Action Short, my money’s on An Irish Goodbye. Le Pupille also fits their vibe and could also win (and don’t sleep on The Red Suitcase either).
• Animated Short will likely be won by The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse. But legitimately either Ice Merchants, An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It and My Year of Dicks all feel like legitimate contenders.

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Final tally as I see it:

• Everything Everywhere All at Once — 6 wins (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing)
• All Quiet on the Western Front — 4 wins (Cinematography, Score, Sound, International Feature)
• The Whale — 2 wins (Actor, Makeup & Hairstyling)
• Avatar: The Way of Water — 1 win (Visual Effects)
• Babylon — 1 wins (Production Design)
• The Banshees of Inisherin — 1 win (Supporting Actress)
• Elvis — 1 wins (Costume Design)
• Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio — 1 win (Animated Feature)
• Navalny — 1 win (Documentary Feature)
• RRR — 1 win (Song)
• Women Talking — 1 win (Adapted Screenplay)
• And then, The Elephant Whisperers in Doc Short, An Irish Goodbye in Live Action Short and Ice Merchants in Animated Short.

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What a fascinating year. I feel like I can easily get 9-10 categories straight up wrong. But, on the other hand, I feel like there’s only about 3 categories I can see going more than 2 nominees deep. So I think, no matter what happens, I’ll do just fine on the Scorecard Ballot and am not really all that concerned. I think I’ve got the major contenders pretty down and I think there aren’t gonna be any ‘out of nowhere’ surprises (past the few obvious places they always come from). I think the only surprises are gonna be ‘this won over that’, which I can live with. Honestly I’m just curious to see if they make things interesting or it all goes the obvious route, as it usually does.

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