Okay, now we’re at the last two shortlists, and I deliberately saved these for last because they’re the two newest and the two I’m least familiar with.
They narrowed down Score and Song? What? Sure, Score, it just makes it easier to guess, but do I want that? I had more fun when it was harder. And I had to guess from 120 scores. I’d go through, eliminate all but like, 35, and then I’d say “here’s fifteen that I guess could, but probably not,” and then end up with 20 that I think are the main contenders and then sort of rank what I think their chances are and narrow it down that way. Here, they do all the work for me! That’s not fun! And we’ll get to Song later. That’s just a travesty.
There were 156 eligible scores, and they’ve narrowed it down to 15. So 1/3 of this will be your category. Here is your shortlist for Best Original Score: (more…)
Our next shortlist is Best Documentary Feature. If we’re gonna get into the ones that require effort, let’s at least go for the one that requires the most first.
There were 166 films submitted, and they’ve whittled us down to 15. I’ve watched more documentaries over the past couple of years, and have even gotten over some of my aversion to them. That said, I still prefer ones about nonsense to important ones, but that’s just my own personal taste.
Still, I feel like this year, there are at least two or three that are really obvious major contenders, so it’s really only gonna come down to whether or not they leave them off, or if this one’s gonna be cut and dry all the way through. Only one way to find out.
Here’s your shortlist for Best Documentary Feature: (more…)
Okay, Best Makeup & Hairstyling is next. Why? Because it’s easy. And I can knock it out in like, four minutes.
This is pretty simple: they decide whatever their criteria are, and they shortlist seven films. Of the seven, three will be nominated.
That’s about it, really. We get seven, we guess three. And there we are.
Here is your shortlist for Best Makeup & Hairstyling: (more…)
Our second shortlist is Best Foreign Language Film.
This is the one they do every year and it makes my life so much easier. This year, in particular, they’ve made it easier for people to see more of the eligible films by having screenings throughout the process. However, they did kind of narrow the field down with those screenings, and while I don’t care enough to do this, I’d be really interested to see if these films were featured in those screenings.
That said, there were 87 eligible films (all of which I previewed here), and now they’ve whittled it down to nine. Well… the branch voted in the top six, and then a committee added three more, which is always how you end up with the countries that are submitting for the first time. You gotta wonder why no one’s called them out on that. They straight up just shortlist three movies based on a board of people going, “Yeah, put that one on.”
But anyway, we have 9 films left, and 5 of them will be nominated. Here is your Best Foreign Language Film shortlist: (more…)
Okay, so SAG announced today. Which means this is it. The extent of the acting contenders is just about told to us. BAFTA might illuminate some more in a month, but until then — this is what we’ve got. These are the contenders we have to chew on until then. Shit’s getting real, guys. Which is good, because now I can finish watching stuff and really be ready to go in January.
So without further ado, here are your SAG nominees: (more…)
Critics Choice time.
After the Globes, which pretty much told me this is a wide open race, BFCA is here to give us a little more clarity. They’re generally pretty populist, but do tend to hit a good deal more than not. They feel like they get most of the Best Picture nominees a lot of the time, and they always have six-to-seven acting nominees in a category, which gives us the broad lay of the land.
Usually a fair amount of where the Academy is going is laid out on this table, and it’s just a matter of which ones are gonna end up being extraneous. So I’m interested to see what they’ve done.
Here are your Critics Choice nominees for 2018: (more…)
They announced the Makeup & Hairstylist Guild Awards tonight. You know, just like you’ve all been waiting for.
I won’t waste time, because I know you’re all so eager to find out who won. So here they are:
Best Period and/or Character Makeup: Darkest Hour
Best Period and/or Character Hairstyling: I, Tonya
Best Contemporary Makeup: Pitch Perfect 3
Best Contemporary Hairstyling: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Best Special Makeup Effects: Darkest Hour
Only one of these winners is nominated at the Oscars, in case there was any doubt what’s gonna win there.
I think the biggest surprise out of all of this is that you found out they had a guild for this category.
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Oscar nominees were announced this morning. Let’s see what it all means.
What I love about this day is that we’re no longer guessing what can or will be. Now we’re left with what is, and this is the reality going forward. So now it’s a matter of figuring out what’ll win.
But, before we move onto that, let’s look at what happened and try to figure out why it happened. And, more importantly, how I did in guessing it. Because I am nothing if not narcissistic.
Here are the 90th Academy Award nominations: (more…)
The Oscar nominations were just announced. I’ll write them up later, but here they are:
Call Me by Your Name
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (more…)
This is the epitome of what I do. You’d think it would be the analysis of Oscar night. But by that point, so much of it feels anticlimactic. Then again, I guess you could say that about this year, where the damn PGA already announced a winner before nominations! (Though perhaps that made things even more interesting. We’ll see.)
I think I might be the only person on the internet who tries to straight up guess every single Oscar nominee. Not just the way other places do it, a simple list. I talk my way through the entire thing. History, precursors. You know why I make every decision I make. And I grade myself, percentages and all. Oscar nominations are bright and early tomorrow morning, and right now, we’re gonna run through all 24 categories and I’m gonna see if I can guess every one of them. I’m confident that I’m the only person who does it with this much detail because no one else is stupid enough to even bother doing it.
Every year, there are about 120 nominees. The maximum we can have is 123. Generally it’s 121 or 122, depending on how many Best Picture nominees there are (typically 8 or 9). For most people, you’d think correctly guessing 2/3 of them would be a really solid average. Me, I feel like I’m doing badly if I drop below 70%. I hit 77% and 78.5% the past two years, which was about 95 of the total 122 nominees. The worst I’ve done on this site is 68%, and that was the first year I did it. Every other year was 71% or above. No idea how I do it, and I don’t really care. It’s just fun for me. I don’t mind if I fail horribly (because I’m expecting to), but I am hoping to hit 80% one of these years. Or at least get the annual average up to 75%. Both of those things would be amazing. (more…)
The Critics Choice Awards were
last Thursday night. Gonna be honest, I had more important shit to do, so I paid no attention to them whatsoever. (I’m nothing if not up front about stuff.) My way of thinking about it is, you come here for the quality* (*rambling) than the news. So I haven’t been able to look at any of this until now.
BFCA is generally helpful in figuring out how things are gonna go. Oftentimes when something ‘surprising’ happens at the Oscars that seem to not have been prefaced by the major precursors, chances are BFCA had it. I like them. They have way too many categories, but I generally like looking at them. They are a bit more mainstream than the Academy, but they definitely are a good weather vane to see which way the winds are blowing.
So, without further ado (and because I really only know like, three winners on this whole list and I wanna know who won), here are the winners: (more…)
So they announced the Makeup & Hairstylist Guild nominees a few days ago, which I totally spaced on because, with a shortlist, and a guild that only really started handing out awards in the last five years, what help is it really for guessing the Oscars?
But hey, I like them, and they randomly found out I type this up and send me press releases, which is cool, so I’m all down for this guild and these awards. I like when craft people get noticed for the great work they do.
So anyway, let’s get into what the guild nominated. (more…)
I don’t know why it always comes out on December 19th, but that’s always the internal marker I have to check for the Best Original Song list.
There are 70 songs eligible for Best Original Song this year (IT’S NOT A SHORTLIST). What I do is run each of them down, link to as many as I can, and just sort of familiarize myself with them and see how I think voting is gonna go. I also rate them and stuff, to make it fun for me. Last year there were 91, so we’ve got our work cut out for us this year.
This is one of my favorite articles of the year to write, so let’s jump right into it. (more…)
They announced the Best Makeup & Hairstyling Shortlist today. I’m never quite sure how they figure these out, but that’s not my job. My job is figuring out what they’re gonna nominate.
They give you seven options, and from there, three get nominated.
Here’s what we got:
Ghost in the Shell
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Victoria & Abdul
There are 141 scores eligible for Best Original Score this year.
As I do every year, I list them all, then just rip right through an eliminate 75% of them right off the bat. Because let’s be serious — you know what the contenders are and what the contenders aren’t. This is not the most surprising category.
Last year, there were 145 eligible scores. So we’re right in line with that. Only like a quarter of them really stand any legitimate chance at the nomination anyhow.
Here are the all the eligible scores for this year: (more…)
The SAG Awards were announced this morning. As always, I mention that they are the body that helps tell you which way the acting categories are gonna go at the Oscars. But that’s winners. Nominees — usually you get a good sense of where they’re leaning, but the main caveat that no one ever really follows the major caveat with these awards, which is — SAG is a huge voting body. Like ten times the size of the acting branch of the Academy, if not more. There are going to be more populist choices here, and just because the Globes and SAG have nominated certain people does not mean they’re locks for the Oscar. (Or do we not remember The Butler, Jennifer Aniston in that movie, or that year Sarah Silverman got all the guild nominations?)
My process with this is to see who they’ve nominated, appreciate everything, but wait and see how everything plays out before I start making wild claims. This year, I’m pretty sure we’re gonna end up with pretty standard fare, and I can probably guess where the major ‘populist’ nominations are gonna go. But we’ll see.
Here are your 2017 SAG nominations: (more…)
We have our Critics Choice nominations. My general perception of them is — I usually like hearing their opinion, there are far too many categories, and they’re generally fairly helpful in seeing how the Oscars are gonna turn out. They always announce early, so they become the de facto signpost of where things are headed, more so than the Golden Globes, who are gonna announce next week.
Generally, BFCA gets most, if not all of the Best Picture nominees on their list. Last year, all they missed was Hidden Figures and had the rest. Typically they only miss one, if that. Which is pretty cool, especially since in recent years the Oscars have generally had solid taste.
Anyway, let’s get into it. The Critics Choice nominations for 2017: (more…)
The SAG Awards were tonight. This puts all the acting categories into focus. We can still look at BAFTA next week, but this pretty much will tell you how things are gonna go.
We’re gonna roll through categories the way they handed them out, and then at the bottom we’ll talk about what, if anything, it means for the acting categories going forward.
Here are your SAG Award winners: (more…)
Now that we have our Oscar nominations, we can stop dealing in one form of guesswork, and engage in another.
But before we do that, let’s take a minute to react about what is or isn’t nominated this year, what decisions they made that will change how I go about this in the future, what surprises the shit out of me, and just what we think about this list, because this is the only time I really get to sit here and do this. Because from here on out, it’s all about figuring out who from these lists will win, since these are the nominees, and nothing will change that.
Except a good disqualification and scandal. And that’s always fun. (more…)
It’s not yet 6am in Los Angeles, and the Oscar nominations are announced.
As I do, I get up and type the list up as they say it. I could wait and copy/paste it, but I do not. Because I am stupid.
So here are your 89th Academy Award Nominations: (more…)
This is the article I build toward every year. You’d think it was the Top Ten list, or Oscar night picks. Nope. This is the one I look forward to most. Because I think I might be the only person that straight up tries to pick all the Oscar nominees, from Best Picture on down to Best Live-Action Short.
Typically each year there are about 120 nominees. Give or take one or two. The fluctuation on the Best Picture list is what decides what the final number is going to be. The max we can have is 123. Generally we have either 121 or 122. I try to get 2/3 of them right, but I feel good if I hit around 70%. Which is around 85. Last year I got 95, which was 78.5%. I have no illusions about getting anywhere near that number again. I tend to hit low 70s — which is 85/86. That I’d feel happy with. 75% as an average would be amazing. If I can crack 80%, I’d be ecstatic.
The way I do this is break down, category by category, go over all the precursors and all the little details that most people overlook/all the stuff I’ve learned from experience, and I tell you why I think everything I pick will be nominated.
I feel very confident in saying that no one gives you as in depth coverage on this as I do. Which is to stay that no one is stupid enough to pick 123 potential nominations and grade themselves on how they do. (more…)
The Makeup and Hairstylists Guild announced their nominations today.
However, because the Makeup & Hairstyling Oscar category is so bizarre in their voting methods, we really don’t have a whole lot to talk about.
Here are your nominees: (more…)
They announced the Best Makeup & Hairstyling Shortlist today.
This is the one shortlist I don’t question. I don’t know how they figure it out, and I don’t really care what they left off, because you could spend days trying to figure out the methodology. All I know is — they give me seven, so I work with those seven. The rest is a fool’s errand.
Here are your shortlisted films for Best Makeup & Hairstyling: (more…)