Usually I’m content to wait until nominations time after I initially talk about this category, but between the time they announced the list of eligible films and now (so… call it three weeks), I’ve seen just about every nominee. And now that I’m more educated on the category, I felt it was a good time to check in. Plus, as you can see, I’m building myself up to full-on Oscar season mode. Once that happens, I can talk about this stuff for hours.
There are 26 films eligible for the category this year. And as of this moment, I have seen 23 of them. And I now feel like I have a really good handle on what will and won’t be nominated. So I’m going to share that knowledge with you now. Because I’m nice like that. (more…)
It feels like it’s been forever since I posted on here. That’s entirely my fault. Life and time constraints getting in the way. I have like 50 years of top ten lists to write up, and I just can’t find the time and the brain space to actually finish doing so. Plus, my favorite time of year is coming up, and at this point I want to stall for time just so I can get to that. Most of my time has been dedicated to work, trying to write my own stuff, and furiously trying to attend as many screenings as I can and see stuff before it comes out.
Anyway, they announced the list of qualifying Animated Feature candidates today, and since it’s not 92 movies like the Foreign Language list, I can write about it quickly and not have to do crazy research. And also because I wanted to try to get ahead of all the articles that will undoubtedly be written that say “Is this the weakest year for animated films ever?” Because I saw this coming months ago and have been telling anyone who would listen to me about it. Because it is. The major studio animated output has been complete garbage this year and now you’re about to potentially get an Animated Feature category in which most people probably have really only heard of one of the nominees.
So without further ado, here are the 25 other movies that will automatically lose to Coco this year at the Oscars: (more…)
I’d like to remind everyone that it’s a wonderful thing to be reminded that we really don’t know shit. From the start of last night, I saw how badly I was doing and was going to do could not have been more happy about it. There’s something so reassuring about that. Knowing amazing things could happen that you weren’t anticipating. Knowing that in the end, nothing happens according to plan and that life throws you curveballs constantly.
It’s not what I’d have picked, and it’s not what I thought would happen, but I love everything that happened last night. All the way down the line. I loved everything about it. (more…)
This is my new measuring stick for how well I’m doing guessing the Oscars. Rather than simply being right or wrong, this is about how well you can guess everything.
What you do is take every category and rank all the nominees in terms of their likelihood of winning. If the nominee ranked #1 wins, you get 1 point. If #2 wins, you get 2 points. And you tally everything up. A perfect score would be a 24 (meaning your #1 in every category won). The only time it could be confusing is if a tie happens, but in 88 years it’s only happened six times. So we’ll deal with that should the situation arise.
Really what this does is interest someone like me, who likes to take an entire category and actually parse through what spot each of the nominees is in. To me, the words “that’s a #4” mean something. This is my way of quantifying that.
So here is my Scorecard Ballot for this year: (more…)
The giant ballot article went up this morning, and for those who don’t want to have to skim through that, here’s a cliff notes version for easy reference. This is everything you should be taking, and what I’m taking.
And in a bit, I’ll post my Scorecard as well, for those looking to attempt that as well. (Note: The rankings here my not be the ones I put on my Scorecard.)
Here are the quick picks for the 89th Academy Awards: (more…)
This is what you’ve all been texting me about for the past two weeks. This is all the info you wanted so you could win your Oscar pool. I probably should charge for this. But I’m stupid. So here you are. Hope you’re not all in the same pools!
As is always the case, in order to get the simple answers — what I think is gonna win and what you should pick — you have to deal with all the extra shit that only I’m interested in. But you know, at least I’m having fun, right?
Simply guessing the Oscars used to be fun for me. Betting people dinner in college if they could outguess me. (They couldn’t.) Now I’m on some next level shit. I’m not even about picking winners anymore. Now I’m all about picking nominees, and diagnosing the categories. I’m on a whole other scale of grading myself. Which means I’m gonna write a whole lot of nonsense here, and you can read as much or as little of it as you want. I make it as easy for you to ignore me as you possibly can. And then you have to live with yourself, you callous monster.
This article is both my personal ballot (an extension of all my Oscar Quest articles) and a full on analysis of Oscar night for everyone. That’s really the part you’re here for. You don’t care what I think. You wanna know what’s gonna win. (more…)
tonight last night. Three major guild awards being were given out. We’re gonna handle them in order of importance. This one being the least important. (Note: I wrote all these up last night, but was too drunk to actually make sure I actually wrote them up, so they waited until this morning. Nothing beats drinking too much like waking up super early and cooking chili for your Super Bowl party.)
Not that the Annie Awards aren’t important, but so many years it’s like — this year Pixar decided to take themselves out of contention and told nobody to vote for them. Or this year Pixar decided they wanted to win everything. It ultimately doesn’t really affect Best Animated Feature all that much. You typically know what the favorite is without knowing what happened here. They haven’t been particularly helpful in gauging the race, aside from when the obvious choice is gonna win (and even then. Toy Story 3 lost to How to Train Your Dragon at the Annies. And that movie was nominated for Best Picture).
So here are your Annie Award winners for 2016: (more…)
Every year before the Oscars I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category, how it typically goes, voting-wise, historically and also as a precursor to my picks article, allowing me to get most of the heavy lifting out of the way beforehand.
What I do is go over each category’s history, give you all the previous winners and nominees, then list the current year’s nominees. And then I’ll go over how each of the guilds (if there is a corresponding guild) have voted, how that corresponds to the Oscars (some guilds mean a lot to how a category will play out. Others mean nothing). It’s basically everything you need to know in order to make an informed decision when you make your picks on Oscar night. And then I also rank the nominees at the end in terms of where I see them in terms of their likelihood to win. So you know what the general favorites are.
Today is Best Animated Feature. AKA which Disney/Pixar movie is winning this year? (more…)
They just announced the Annie Award nominations. Which I don’t particularly care about, because this is one guild that tends to not really be much of a help in gauging the Animated Feature category. Typically that category you can eyeball and get at minimum 4/5.
But it’s a guild, so I look at it. So here we go with this year’s Annie Award nominations: (more…)
The Academy announced the list of films that will compete for a nomination in the Best Animated Feature category and lose to Disney/Pixar. I think I speak for all of us when I say — where’s Norm of the North?
There are 27 films eligible this year, which is an all-time high. Most average people will recognize about ten of them. I think I’m at a 18 or 19. I happened to get fortunate on a few and come across them before the list was announced. There’s always a handful nobody’s ever heard of, but that’s fine, since those pretty much never get nominated anyway.
So we’ll do what we always do, break down the category even though we already know what at least 3/5 of it will look like, and then find some other cool shit to check out on top of that.
Here are your eligible films for Best Animated Feature: (more…)
So the Oscars were last night. A lot to talk about.
This is where we officially close the book on 2015 and move into 2016. I’ll try to give everything its due, but there was a point about an hour into the ceremony where I was just kind of over it and wanted to move on.
Overall it was a strange year. They really spread the wealth around. Mad Max won six, I think, and then The Revenant won 3 and Spotlight won 2 and then everything else only won 1. Crazy.
A lot of major stats fell and a lot of crazy shit happened. So let’s get into it: (more…)
My friend introduced me to this last year. I had no idea people did it, and I honestly think it’s the best way to pick the Oscars. Here’s how it works:
You take every category and rank all of the nominees in terms of order you think they’re going to win. If your #1 choice wins, you get 1 point. If #2 wins, you get to. Etc. And in the end, you tally your score up. And the lowest score (24 being the lowest) wins. It’s very simple, and the only time it gets confusing is if a tie happens, which is pretty rare in the history of the Academy (even though one did happen in 2012).
I prefer it because it’s based more on diagnosing the category than simply picking a winner. And diagnosing categories is my specialty.
Here’s my scorecard for this year’s Oscars: (more…)
My giant ballot article went up a few hours ago. This is the abridged version of that, for easy reference during the ceremony.
Here’s everything you should be taking, and what I’m taking. Very succinct, with cliff notes versions of all the categories.
And in a bit, I’m gonna post my scorecard for how I’m gonna rank myself on that. (Note: The rankings here may be slightly different from the ones I’m picking on the Scorecard.)
Here are the quick picks for the 88th Academy Awards: (more…)
Everything you need for Oscar night in one place. I make things as simple or as complex as you want them to be. You can read all 34,000 words like the insane person who wrote them, or you can skip through and look purely for my picks. It’s up to you. All I can promise is a respectable showing in your office/party pool and enough knowledge to make you look like you know what you’re talking about.
This article acts as both my own personal ballot as well as a tool for guessing what will win in every category. On the personal side, this acts as an extension of my Oscar Quest. I rank each category based on my thoughts having seen all the nominees and pick what I’d vote for if I were casting a ballot. That’s just for me. The practical side is more interesting. I run down every category, discuss the nominees in depth. I give you all the precursor information you need, then break down the categories. I tell you what’s most likely going to win, what its biggest competition is, and which nominee has a chance at sneaking up to surprise everyone with a win. I also link to all the category breakdowns I’ve been writing over the past couple of weeks (hint: you can click the name of each category to get to them) if you want every bit of information you can possibly get.
Then, at the very end, I plainly say “Here’s what I am taking on my ballot” and “Here is what you should take, because it is the safest and smartest decision, based on everything I’ve presented above.” I also color code everything, so you can easily find stuff. No one else goes this nuts with their coverage. Trust me. This is why you come to me. (more…)
The Annie Awards were also given out tonight. Surprise, Pixar won everything.
Inside Out won Best Animated Feature, Directing, Writing, Voice Acting (for Sadness), Production Design, Character Animation, Music, Character Design, Editorial and Storyboarding. The only category it lost was for Animated Effects, which went to The Good Dinosaur. So Pixar swept all the Animated film categories.
The two Live-Action awards went to The Revenant, which won for Character Animation, and Avengers: Age of Ultron, which won for Animated Effects.
World of Tomorrow won for Animated Short.
So that’s what we got. Inside Out can’t lose, in case you didn’t know that already.
There are 16 films eligible for Best Animated Feature. Fortunately for us, they changed the category a few years ago, guaranteeing five nominees as long as there are 16 qualifying films. So we got in just under the wire on this one.
They may have fudged it a little bit too, since I see a TV movie on here. But I don’t care. 5 nominees is better than 3 because it affords more opportunities for cool stuff to get in.
Anyway, here are the films that will beget your Best Animated Feature category in 2 months: (more…)
Well, that’s another year in the books. Goodbye, 2014, hello 2015.
I have no idea how many I got wrong or right. I think I was in the 18 range or so. Which is admirable. I don’t even care. Because not a single category threw me for a loop. I was right there with either the winner or runner up in every single category. That’s all I can ever ask for.
I was also extremely pleased that the majority of the Oscars went to three of my top four films of the year. And you throw in an extra win for my #6 film and another win for my #10 film. So I’m pretty pleased overall.
We’ll tally everything up tomorrow. In the mean time. I was typing up the Oscars as I watched it with my Chinese food and alcohol.
I was also feverishly texting throughout the whole thing. It’s actually kind of a miracle that I managed to get all of it done.
So, here’s my live blog of the Oscars, as I was watching: (more…)
My giant picks article went up a few hours ago. This is the abridged version of that, for easy reference during the ceremony.
Here’s everything you should be taking, and what I’m taking.
Oh, and rankings for that new system I’m trying to see how truly accurate I am at all of this. That is, I’m ranking them in terms of the order they will win. And the closest the winner is to my rankings, the better I do.
Here are the quick picks:
I used to call this Picks, Votes, Analysis, Rankings. But that’s not a fun title.
This article has everything you need for Oscar night. I run down every single category, tell you what’s nominated, how I felt about each of the nominees, tell you what wasn’t nominated that might have been, what I’d vote for, then break down the category and let you know what’s most likely going to win, what its biggest competition is, and what, if anything, has a chance to sneak in and surprise everyone. It has links to all the category breakdowns I’ve written over the past three weeks, and I even say, at the very end, “Here’s what I’m taking, and here’s what you should take, because it’s the smartest and safest decision.” I also color code everything, so you can find stuff incredibly easy.
If you want to sound remotely like an expert at your Oscar party and know very little about the overall goings on apart from having seen some of the movies, read this article. You’ll be fine. (more…)
This is a tradition for me. Every year, before the Oscars, I break down every single one of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with each category, how it works, what its history is, how it usually turns out, and also as a precursor to my picks article, allowing me to get most of the heavy lifting out of the way beforehand.
How these work is — I go over each category’s history, give you all the previous winners and nominees, then list the current year’s nominees. And then I’ll go over how each of the guilds (if there is a corresponding guild) have went, and how that corresponds to the Oscars (some guilds mean a lot to how a category will play out. Others mean nothing). It’s basically everything you need to know in order to make an informed decision when you make your picks on Oscar night. And then I also rank the nominees at the end in terms of where I see them in terms of their likelihood to win.
Today is Best Animated Feature. A category that has pretty much dropped off the face of the earth this year. (more…)
The Annie Awards were last night. I’ll be brief, because they have a lot of categories and don’t really mean that much overall.
The one thing to note with guilds is that typically they will try to gear their voting toward what was nominated. So, going into these results cold, I expect a fairly poor showing from The Lego Movie. Since, clearly they didn’t nominate it, so they didn’t love it as much as the public did, and the people who would have voted for it here are more apt to not because it seems like a lot of guilds really want to be in line with what’s gonna happen at the Oscars a lot of the time.
So here are your Annie Award winners: (more…)
We also have a shortlist for Best Animated Feature.
There are 20 films on it. That seems higher than what it’s been the last two years. I won’t look, of course, since it’s not that big a deal. I remember 21 once, but mostly I’m remembering 17 to 18 most years. It’s usually around this number, though.
The key is, as long as 16 movies are nominated, there will be 5 nominees. So we know there will be 5 nominees this year, and typically you can guess exactly what they’re gonna be based on the shortlist.
So that’s what we’re gonna do.
Here is your shortlist (though technically it’s the entire list of eligible. Or rather, films submitted) for Best Animated Feature: (more…)
So I sat down to watch the Oscars and decided to live-blog it.
So, here is everything I wrote down while watching the Oscars:
Monologue was all right. Mostly safe, but it worked. Not a fan of Ellen as a host.
The crowd is lively. I like it.
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Classy speech. Good job. (more…)