Oscars 2018: DGA Awards
The DGA Awards were handed out tonight. As a reminder, your nominees were:
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice
Your Oscar category has Yorgos Lanthimos and Pawel Pawlikowski instead of Cooper and Farrelly, so basically you went into this knowing that Alfonso Cuaron was going to win and had absolutely no doubts about any other outcome.
And surprise, Alfonso Cuaron won. So now with the DGA alone, he becomes something like a 90% odds-on winner of the Oscar. But we didn’t really need the DGA to tell us that, did we? This one seemed pretty obvious all the way through, no matter what way Best Picture winds up going.
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Oscars 2018: DGA Nominations
And your DGA nominations were announced today. Typically they match 4/5 with the Oscars, so one of these people most likely will not end up being nominated. The last time they went 5/5 was 2009. And before that, 2005. And before that, 1998. So three times in twenty years.
Oh, and because I’m nuts — it only happened two times before that: 1981 and 1977. So five times ever. Well… since the DGA went to five nominees in 1970. Before that, the DGA had ten to fifteen nominees a year, which made it way easier to have all five be nominated. And you know what? It still only happened three times in those years: 1953 (12 DGA nominees), 1954 (15 DGA nominees) and 1967 (10 DGA nominees).
So yeah, 5 times in almost 50 years. Odds are, one of these people will not be nominated at the Oscars, and I think we all know who it’s gonna be.
Here are your DGA nominees for 2018: (more…)
Oscars 2017: DGA Awards
The DGA announced their winner last night. As a reminder, the nominees were:
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
And the winner… was Guillermo Del Toro.
The DGA has matched the Oscar winner all but seven times, ever (and three of those times, the DGA winner wasn’t even nominated). So, at this very moment, there is a 90-94% chance that Guillermo Del Toro will win Best Director at the Oscars. He’s won all the precursors so far, and if he wins the BAFTA, I think it’s completely 100% locked. Look at it — four of these five are up for the Oscar. Paul Thomas Anderson is on the final list over Martin McDonagh, but otherwise they’re the same. BAFTA didn’t spark to Lady Bird or Get Out the way the other groups have, so unless Christopher Nolan is gonna try to pull a fast one (which seems unlikely), I think Guillermo has it in the bag.
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Oscars 2017: DGA Nominations
DGA nominations announced today. Not surprisingly, this will be big in determining who gets nominated for Best Director.
Without further ado, here they are:
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Oscars 2016: DGA Awards
Damien Chazelle won for La La Land. Shit’s locked, folks. In case you didn’t know already.
I figured I wouldn’t waste your time with a bullshit introduction and all that stuff.
Damien Chazelle won the DGA Award for La La Land, the award that is so accurate that only seven times in the history of the Oscars has it ever differed from the eventual Best Director winner. And two of those times, the person wasn’t even nominated. So we’re looking at 90% confirmation, and then taking into account the two times the winner wasn’t nominated (and assuming the next obvious choice), 93%.
Shit’s locked, guys. Good night, let’s go home, Picture and Director are sealed and now we just gotta figure out how many Oscars La La Land is winning and focus on some of the technical categories and acting categories to try to get some of the more contentious ones right.
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Oscars 2015: DGA Awards
They gave out the DGA Awards earlier tonight. Or, I guess yesterday, since it’s like 3am now.
Alejandro G. Inarritu won for The Revenant.
So Best Director is pretty much a wrap. The DGA is the most accurate precursor of all of them.
The back-t0-back Best Director feat has only happened once before: Joseph L. Mankiewicz in 1949 and 1950, for A Letter to Three Wives and All About Eve. Mankiewicz also won Best Screenplay for both of those efforts on top of that. The Revenant wasn’t nominated for Screenplay this year, otherwise that also would have been in play.
BAFTA announces in a week. They’re the only ones that could potentially pull for an alternate winner. Though at this point, who could that even be?
Oscars 2015: DGA Nominations
The last major guild we were waiting for has announced. It’s DGA time.
Typically, the DGA matches the Oscars four out of five. This year, they theoretically could go five out of five.
Nothing seemed overly surprising with their choices. There was only one moderately surprising entry, but even that was a film that’s looking to be a major player. So really it’s just gonna be about figuring what could knock any of these nominees off the final list.
Here are your DGA nominees for 2015: (more…)
