The DGA Nominations are here, and pretty much all the clay we’re gonna get to guess what the Oscar nominees are is in our collective possession.
Based on what the frontrunners are for Best Picture, I’d say they pretty much went chalk here. Though the DGA is notorious for only getting 4 of the 5 nominees, with at least one other entry making it on that feels more like a directors branch choice than a populist “frontrunner.” Think Lenny Abrahamson for Room last year, or Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher in 2014, or Michael Haneke and Benh Zeitlin in 2012. There should be something you don’t expect as much. It’s not like 2013 where all five nominees are major players (that year was Scorsese, David O. Russell, Alexander Payne, Alfonso Cuaron and Steve McQueen, established names or frontrunners based on their films).
So I’d feel safe saying not all of these five will make it on the final list, but it’s also a good measuring stick for where their heads are at.
Here are your 2016 DGA nominees: (more…)
The DGA has just announced their nominations.
I’m sure you all know that this is the most accurate predictor for the Oscars there is, the DGA winner having gone on to win the Best Director Oscar all but six times.
And as for the nominees — they’re actually really good about it. Last year, four out of five nominees matched, with David Fincher missing out and Terrence Malick getting on (most likely due to the latter’s Best Picture nomination and the former’s lack of one). 2010, four of five (the DGA had Christopher Nolan and the Oscars had the Coen brothers). 2009, all five. 2008, four of five (Nolan again. They replaced him with Stephen Daldry at the Oscars). 2007, four of five (DGA had Sean Penn, Oscars had Jason Reitman). 2006, only three of five (DGA missed Spielberg and Paul Greengrass in favor of Bill Condon and Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Ferris). 2005, all five. 2004, all five. 2003, four of five (DGA had Gary Ross, Oscars had Fernando Meirelles). 2002, four of five (DGA had Peter Jackson, Oscars had Pedro Almodovar). 2001, three of five (DGA had Baz Luhrmann and Christopher Nolan and the Oscars had Robert Altman and David Lynch). And 2000, four of five (DGA had Cameron Crowe and Oscars had Stephen Daldry).
So basically, they’re gonna get you at least four nominees. And when they do miss, it’s usually because either the Best Picture situation is murky (2006), a foreign director gets on (2003, 2002), really seasoned directors get on (2001), or they just fucking hate one particular director (2010, 2008).
That said, let’s look at this year’s DGA nominees: (more…)