They announced the Independent Spirit Award nominations today. And I, for one, am happy. Because as much as I’ve tried to get stuff done this year, nothing makes me amped more than the beginning of Oscar season. I don’t even have to try to come up with stuff to talk about. Pretty soon NBR is gonna announce, and then everyone’s gonna start forming real opinions and not half-cocked ones based on what movie came out first and made money, and we can start talking about stuff for real. Meanwhile I’m knee deep in watching everything and gearing up for end-of-the-year article bonanza.
But now, we can look at what the indies are doing, which I never find overly helpful, but it is fun to look at. So here we go. Your Independent Spirit Award nominees for 2018: (more…)
The Cinema Audio Society announced their awards tonight as well. In an over three-hour ceremony, they produced exactly one category of note for our purposes. Which is for Best Sound Mixing.
The winner was Dunkirk, which pretty much cements that as the winner of at least one of the two Sound categories at the Oscars. But you already probably knew that.
That’s the last precursor, guys. You now have all the information you need to guess what’s gonna win next Sunday. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t already 35,000 words into my giant picks article, but what can I say, this is my favorite thing to do each year. I can’t help it if I’m nuts.
See you guys on Sunday.
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The Eddie Awards were given out last night. Here are the winners:
Comedy/Musical: I, Tonya
Dunkirk makes sense. War movies do well in this category. See: Hacksaw Ridge last year. Gonna be tough to beat that one in the end. I, Tonya, also nominated for Editing, also makes sense as a winner. Baby Driver fares better if not for Dunkirk. The only movie that can jump up and win is Shape of Water, which I don’t think needs Editing or will win Editing. I think Dunkirk ends up taking it pretty easily.
Otherwise — Coco, we know is already locked for Animated. And Jane wasn’t nominated for Documentary. How’s that one looking now?
We’re breaking down categories in like a week, but this one seemed self-explanatory from the start.
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Oscar nominees were announced this morning. Let’s see what it all means.
What I love about this day is that we’re no longer guessing what can or will be. Now we’re left with what is, and this is the reality going forward. So now it’s a matter of figuring out what’ll win.
But, before we move onto that, let’s look at what happened and try to figure out why it happened. And, more importantly, how I did in guessing it. Because I am nothing if not narcissistic.
Here are the 90th Academy Award nominations: (more…)
The Oscar nominations were just announced. I’ll write them up later, but here they are:
Call Me by Your Name
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (more…)
This is the epitome of what I do. You’d think it would be the analysis of Oscar night. But by that point, so much of it feels anticlimactic. Then again, I guess you could say that about this year, where the damn PGA already announced a winner before nominations! (Though perhaps that made things even more interesting. We’ll see.)
I think I might be the only person on the internet who tries to straight up guess every single Oscar nominee. Not just the way other places do it, a simple list. I talk my way through the entire thing. History, precursors. You know why I make every decision I make. And I grade myself, percentages and all. Oscar nominations are bright and early tomorrow morning, and right now, we’re gonna run through all 24 categories and I’m gonna see if I can guess every one of them. I’m confident that I’m the only person who does it with this much detail because no one else is stupid enough to even bother doing it.
Every year, there are about 120 nominees. The maximum we can have is 123. Generally it’s 121 or 122, depending on how many Best Picture nominees there are (typically 8 or 9). For most people, you’d think correctly guessing 2/3 of them would be a really solid average. Me, I feel like I’m doing badly if I drop below 70%. I hit 77% and 78.5% the past two years, which was about 95 of the total 122 nominees. The worst I’ve done on this site is 68%, and that was the first year I did it. Every other year was 71% or above. No idea how I do it, and I don’t really care. It’s just fun for me. I don’t mind if I fail horribly (because I’m expecting to), but I am hoping to hit 80% one of these years. Or at least get the annual average up to 75%. Both of those things would be amazing. (more…)
This’ll be quick. The PGA Awards were last night. The Shape of Water won Best Picture. That, coupled with all the other wins — it’s the big favorite at the moment. We’ll see how things go from here on out (since they haven’t even announced nominations yet!), but it’s a huge favorite to win the whole thing.
The PGA’s been wrong the past two years, so it’s not a done deal yet. But this is a big step.
Also, Jane won for Documentary and Coco won for Animated. Which shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone.
The Visual Effects Society announced their nominees. I hate talking about them because there are just so many categories. I don’t even bother mentioning some of them because it gets really specific and doesn’t have a whole lot to do with guessing the Oscars. Good for them for giving the guild members their due, but it’s just too much for me to handle. Commercials, student films — too much.
Before we get into the nominees, a reminder of your shortlist:
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
War for the Planet of the Apes
Five of these ten will be nominated on Tuesday. So here are your VES nominees. Let’s see how these ten fare: (more…)
The Cinema Audio Society also announced their nominations today, so we’re gonna talk Best Sound Mixing as well.
Sound Mixing, to remind you if you’re not all up on your categories, is the entire sound design in the film. Musicals do great here, as do war movies. Basically, if you assume Dunkirk and Baby Driver and probably Star Wars, then you’re most of the way there already. (And this is before I’ve even seen the list.)
Here are your CAS nominees for this year:
The American Society of Cinematographers announced their nominees this year. Not a whole lot to say in the way of prologue — this is the big Cinematography precursor. This, BFCA and BAFTA are all we’re gonna get to figure it out. And this year, you’re basically guaranteed to get two of the nominees right. So really, I think you can probably cobble four, no-problem, and then be reasonably sure about the fifth.
Your 2017 ASC nominees are:
Blade Runner 2049
The Shape of Water (more…)
The PGA Award nominees were announced this morning. Cue all the people writing clickbait articles saying, “Can Wonder Woman get a Best Picture nomination?” I’m just guessing. I have no idea if the PGA nominated Wonder Woman, but knowing them, I can basically guarantee that they did.
So, in a minute, when I see what they nominated, just know that I’ve already said, “No, Wonder Woman will not be nominated for Best Picture.” When BAFTA nominates it for Best Picture, then let’s talk. Until then, come on, guys. Do you know who the Academy is?
Anyway, here are your PGA nominees: (more…)
Our second guild today is the American Cinema Editors. I love seeing which way they go, though the problem here is — the Academy is just gonna nominate whatever the hell they want for Best Editing, because the major Best Picture contenders have to be nominated for Best Editing (for whatever reason). So, unless they don’t really intend to vote for Call My By Your Name, it’s gonna be nominated for Best Editing, regardless of whether or not it appears on the ACE list. (I haven’t seen anything yet, by the way. We’re all gonna find this out together.)
They announce Dramatic and Comedic categories, which also doesn’t particularly help us, but does expand to more possibilities for them to eventually be right in the end. Isn’t that nice?
Here are your 2017 Eddie nominees: (more…)
They announced the Independent Spirit Award nominations a little while back. They got left a bit by the wayside until now because I had more important stuff to do and because I didn’t have the time to deal with Oscar stuff until it was the proper time. Well, the time is coming, so let’s take ten minutes.
I don’t put a lot of stock into them inasmuch as they are a nice representation of the kinds of films that ought to get acclaim and have a platform to be noticed. My usual gripe is that the big “Oscar” studio-pushed films get the majority of the nominations, but let’s not pretend like any awards show is anything other than the industry patting themselves on the back. I’m not really here to feel one way or another about them, I’m here to figure out what will or won’t be nominated.
So that said, here are your 2017 Indie Spirit nominations: (more…)
CAS announced their winner tonight.
It was La La Land.
The original musical that’s gonna win Best Picture is also gonna win Best Sound Mixing.
A bunch more precursors tomorrow.
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The ASC Awards were the second awards from last night we’re dealing with.
To start — they’re not the end-all, be-all for what’s gonna win the Oscar. Going back, they’re 13 for 30 all time. Of the past 24 years, they’re at an even 50%. 12/24. So they’re not something you need to listen to, necessarily.
This year in particular, it’s a pretty open category. You expect La La Land to be a favorite. You expect Silence and Arrival to get votes. Lion will get votes too. And I’m sure Moonlight will as well. It’s pretty open. This will be one of those categories you think about for a while, since so many of them feel practically locked already.
But anyway — your ASC winner this year was Grieg Fraser for Lion. Making that more of a favorite than it was. at this point that and La La Land have to be considered #1 and #2. We’ll see what BAFTA has to say next weekend (though they’re 50% over the past 20 years too, so that’s not gonna necessarily help us all that much).
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The Eddie Awards were given out last night.
Comedy/Musical: La La Land
Documentary: O.J. Made in America
So basically the same set that won the PGAs tonight. No surprises there. La La Land should take the Oscar pretty easily because there’s no incentive for them to vote anywhere else.
For better or worse, we’re kinda locked for a lot of the Oscars already, and we’re all gonna do pretty well overall. The only question is getting those middle of the road categories right. But we’ll get into that next week, when we start breaking down categories.
This will be quick.
The PGA Awards were tonight.
La La Land won. As if there were any doubt about that one.
The only chance Moonlight really had was to pull off a win here. But theoretically if BAFTA and SAG were to go for it, we could mount a decent argument that they’d go there, even though the PGA is always the thing. (more…)
Now that we have our Oscar nominations, we can stop dealing in one form of guesswork, and engage in another.
But before we do that, let’s take a minute to react about what is or isn’t nominated this year, what decisions they made that will change how I go about this in the future, what surprises the shit out of me, and just what we think about this list, because this is the only time I really get to sit here and do this. Because from here on out, it’s all about figuring out who from these lists will win, since these are the nominees, and nothing will change that.
Except a good disqualification and scandal. And that’s always fun. (more…)
It’s not yet 6am in Los Angeles, and the Oscar nominations are announced.
As I do, I get up and type the list up as they say it. I could wait and copy/paste it, but I do not. Because I am stupid.
So here are your 89th Academy Award Nominations: (more…)
This is the article I build toward every year. You’d think it was the Top Ten list, or Oscar night picks. Nope. This is the one I look forward to most. Because I think I might be the only person that straight up tries to pick all the Oscar nominees, from Best Picture on down to Best Live-Action Short.
Typically each year there are about 120 nominees. Give or take one or two. The fluctuation on the Best Picture list is what decides what the final number is going to be. The max we can have is 123. Generally we have either 121 or 122. I try to get 2/3 of them right, but I feel good if I hit around 70%. Which is around 85. Last year I got 95, which was 78.5%. I have no illusions about getting anywhere near that number again. I tend to hit low 70s — which is 85/86. That I’d feel happy with. 75% as an average would be amazing. If I can crack 80%, I’d be ecstatic.
The way I do this is break down, category by category, go over all the precursors and all the little details that most people overlook/all the stuff I’ve learned from experience, and I tell you why I think everything I pick will be nominated.
I feel very confident in saying that no one gives you as in depth coverage on this as I do. Which is to stay that no one is stupid enough to pick 123 potential nominations and grade themselves on how they do. (more…)
The DGA Nominations are here, and pretty much all the clay we’re gonna get to guess what the Oscar nominees are is in our collective possession.
Based on what the frontrunners are for Best Picture, I’d say they pretty much went chalk here. Though the DGA is notorious for only getting 4 of the 5 nominees, with at least one other entry making it on that feels more like a directors branch choice than a populist “frontrunner.” Think Lenny Abrahamson for Room last year, or Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher in 2014, or Michael Haneke and Benh Zeitlin in 2012. There should be something you don’t expect as much. It’s not like 2013 where all five nominees are major players (that year was Scorsese, David O. Russell, Alexander Payne, Alfonso Cuaron and Steve McQueen, established names or frontrunners based on their films).
So I’d feel safe saying not all of these five will make it on the final list, but it’s also a good measuring stick for where their heads are at.
Here are your 2016 DGA nominees: (more…)
Okay, and now for the one guild I hate writing up, because they have too many categories and I have to cut most of them out just to deal with them. Visual Effects Society.
I cut most of the categories out because visual effects is such a major part of filmmaking now, in order for them to do their members justice, they need to have a million categories. But only like six to ten matter for me, so I only deal with the six to ten. And even then it’s a fucking chore, since there are all these categories, and a shortlist, and you don’t know which categories mean more than others — it’s chaos.
So here are your VES nominees: (more…)
Our next shortlist today is the one that’s easiest for me to deal with. Cinema Audio Society. AKA Sound Mixing. We all love us some sound mixing, don’t we?
Quick, what’s the difference between sound editing and sound mixing? Yeah, I know. That’s like when people ask you if you think their baby is cute. And you have to on the spot try not to look like an idiot because you think the baby looks like a garden gnome in a onesie.
Sound mixing is the entire sound design of the film. We’ll deal with sound editing when we get to it. Basically all you need to know this year for sound mixing — this is the one that includes musicals. Which means that La La Land ain’t gonna lose.
Here are your CAS nominees: (more…)
A lot of shortlists today. They’re coming fast and furious in time for nominations day next week. We begin with the American Society of Cinematographers and their nominations.
I haven’t particularly clocked what the best shot films were this year, and without a mental checklist of the big names of the past few years/most years (no Chivo, no Deakins) having films this year, I’m feeling like the list they chose is pretty much chalk. It feels like the obvious choices. But when pressing myself for alternatives, I couldn’t really think of a whole lot. I’m sure I could if I really thought about it, but on an initial attempt, I feel like they did okay.
Here are your ASC nominees: (more…)