The PGA Awards were handed out tonight. 1917 won Best Picture.
That’s two precursors for it now, after winning the Globe. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won BFCA and the other Globe. Interesting those are the two nominees that weren’t nominated for Editing at the Oscars (though one of them by design). I guess we’ll see where BAFTA goes (though at this point, it’s almost literally the difference between Europe and Hollywood). Of note is that the PGA, which used to be automatic and is seen as close to automatic, is 21/30 all-time (70%) and are 8/10 the past decade, missing only 2015 and 2016. So that’s a pretty big result. That about cuts the Best Picture race to three total films.
Meanwhile, Toy Story 4 won for Best Animated Feature and Apollo 11 won for Best Documentary. Which fits with every other result we’ve had thus far. Apollo 11 got left off (unsurprisingly), and the PGA Animated winner has not won the Oscar only four times ever, with two of them (Tintin and Lego Movie) not being nominated at the Oscars, one being Cars losing to Happy Feet and the other being Wreck-It Ralph losing to Brave. Which is essentially 10/12, one being a lesser Pixar losing to a runaway phenomenon hit and the other being a boring old Pixar choice. Given how little’s in the category and how little alternative there is to Pixar in there when voters look at that ballot, Toy Story should run away with that one.
SAG Awards are tomorrow night. So we should have (BAFTA pending) a lot of big stuff set by Monday morning.
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Okay, here we go. PGA nominations.
This is the last of the Best Picture help, and this will basically confirm what the Best Picture list is going to be. We’re all pretty certain about at least six of these (1917, Irishman, Once Upon a Time, Marriage Story, Joker, Parasite), and the BAFTAs told me what the seventh is gonna be (Jojo). How can you not expect Ford v Ferrari here, and I assume Knives Out is gonna make it too. So really it’s just that last spot. Which, Little Women, right? Can we really get that lucky with that list? That would be 8/10 my top ten, sans Motherless Brooklyn, which never had a shot, and Waves, which I can get over but won’t stop talking about as a horrendous snub across the board. I would be very happy if that were the list. But also… what else could it be?
Let’s find out together, shall we? Here are your PGA nominees: (more…)
The PGA Awards were last night. Green Book won Best Picture.
Roma had won BFCA. The Globe was split between Bohemian Rhapsody (Drama) and Green Book (Musical/Comedy).
I felt from the start that A Star Is Born wasn’t gonna have the legs to take everything down, so now here we are, with the two other seemingly “top” contenders starting to split all the awards.
Now we have to wait to see what BAFTA does, though I’m suspecting Roma takes that down. If Green Book wins there, then that might be a wrap. But I’m thinking the PGA didn’t go to Roma because they’re still not totally sold about that whole Netflix thing. I’m wondering if and how the Oscars will be different, but right now, you have to consider Green Book and Roma your two frontrunners.
I would automatically say it’s just Green Book, but you have to realize, two of the past three years the PGA was wrong (they had Big Short in 2015 and La La Land in 2016). So really it’s just gonna come down to what all your precursors are and the prevailing winds.
Plus, we still need nominations first on Tuesday. So let’s let those drop before we start proclaiming anything to be over.
Also of note, Won’t You Be My Neighbor? won in Documentary and Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse won for Animated, cementing those two’s statuses as frontrunners in their respective categories.
The Producers Guild announced their nominations today. I can already tell you like five of them. This is the year of the mainstream. All the obvious contenders will be there. The real question is how this ends up influencing the final list of contenders… and how many there are gonna be. That will be the most interesting part. Will they get 8 nominees?
We still have BAFTA to come before I really start looking at everything, but for now, this will be an interesting gauge of where we’re at.
Here are your PGA nominees: (more…)
This’ll be quick. The PGA Awards were last night. The Shape of Water won Best Picture. That, coupled with all the other wins — it’s the big favorite at the moment. We’ll see how things go from here on out (since they haven’t even announced nominations yet!), but it’s a huge favorite to win the whole thing.
The PGA’s been wrong the past two years, so it’s not a done deal yet. But this is a big step.
Also, Jane won for Documentary and Coco won for Animated. Which shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone.
The PGA Award nominees were announced this morning. Cue all the people writing clickbait articles saying, “Can Wonder Woman get a Best Picture nomination?” I’m just guessing. I have no idea if the PGA nominated Wonder Woman, but knowing them, I can basically guarantee that they did.
So, in a minute, when I see what they nominated, just know that I’ve already said, “No, Wonder Woman will not be nominated for Best Picture.” When BAFTA nominates it for Best Picture, then let’s talk. Until then, come on, guys. Do you know who the Academy is?
Anyway, here are your PGA nominees: (more…)
This will be quick.
The PGA Awards were tonight.
La La Land won. As if there were any doubt about that one.
The only chance Moonlight really had was to pull off a win here. But theoretically if BAFTA and SAG were to go for it, we could mount a decent argument that they’d go there, even though the PGA is always the thing. (more…)
The PGA Awards were announced this morning. They are the one group that best predicts what is going to happen for Best Picture.
To get it out of the way, for all the idiots writing articles today and tomorrow to get clicks — no, fucking Deadpool is not going to be nominated for Best Picture. Don’t be stupid.
Typically they’re good for seven or eight nominees out of their list, depending on how many nominees there are. If there are 8 overall nominees, I figure they will guess 7 of them right and miss one. They always miss one. (more…)
Well now isn’t this interesting.
The PGA announced their awards tonight, and those in the Oscar know keep a close eye on this since this basically tells you which way Best Picture is gonna go.
A lot of people assumed Spotlight was going to take it because it was the slow-chugging frontrunner up to this point. A bunch of people figured The Revenant was going to win because of the Globes win and all the nominations it got.
And then the PGA went with The Big Short. And now everyone’s starting to see the reality of it actually winning Best Picture set in. (more…)
The PGA announced their nominations this morning. The PGA has been the largest prognosticator in knowing where the preferences for Best Picture lay within the majority of the Academy. The winner of the PGA goes on something like 75% of the time to win Best Picture (and has been the same every year for the last eight years).
But that’s not what we need to talk about now. We need to talk about nominations. Typically the PGA matches up at least 90% to what the Oscar nominees are. Last year was 7 of 8, and most years it’s 8 of 9 or 8/9 of 10, depending on how many nominees there are.
This year, there’s such a strong field, I’m more interested in which way they went, because I’m figuring they’re gonna mostly be in line with what I’m feeling, and I think they’re gonna have some cool shit on there.
Here are your 2015 PGA nominees: (more…)
Well, folks, the PGA Awards were tonight.
As we all should know, they’re a pretty good prognosticator for picking the Oscars. The PGA Awards began in 1989, making this the 26th time they’ve given out the award. In the previous 25 times, only 7 times did the PGA winner differ from the Best Picture winner.
They were: 1992. The Crying Game wins the PGA and Unforgiven wins the Oscar. 1995. Apollo 13 wins the PGA and Braveheart wins the Oscar. 1998. Saving Private Ryan wins the PGA and Shakespeare in Love wins the Oscar. 2001. Moulin Rouge wins the PGA and A Beautiful Mind wins the Oscar. 2004. The Aviator wins the PGA and Million Dollar Baby wins the Oscar. 2005. Brokeback Mountain wins the PGA and Crash wins the Oscar. 2006. Little Miss Sunshine wins the PGA and The Departed wins the Oscar. Meaning there’s a 72% chance the winner will win Best Picture, based on the history. The PGA also has a seven year streak going where they’ve gotten it right (including the tie last year, which was unprecedented).
The other reason it’s a big precursor is that it shares the type of voting system the Academy does. Which means that it’s based on the most people liking a film rather than just voting for it #1. It’s a big deal, and actually can tell you which film is most likely to win.
And folks… the film that won the PGA Award this year… was Birdman. (more…)
The Producers Guild announced their nominations today. This is the biggest guild that announces, more so than the Directors Guild, because what wins the PGA is an overwhelming favorite to win Best Picture. And on top of that, what they nominate is also close to being assured to a nomination at the Oscars as well.
So without wasting any time, let’s list the nominees for the 2014 PGA Awards:
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
So, the Producers Guild announced their awards tonight.
Always a big deal. Typically, whatever wins their award almost always wins Best Picture.
Examples: Argo, The Artist, The King’s Speech, The Hurt Locker, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Chicago, Gladiator, American Beauty, Titanic, The English Patient, Forrest Gump, Schindler’s List, The Silence of the Lambs, Dances with Wolves, Driving Miss Daisy.
The only times the PGA and Best Picture didn’t match were with (PGA winners in parentheses, and not bolded and italicized) The Departed (Little Miss Sunshine), Crash (Brokeback Mountain), Million Dollar Baby (The Aviator), A Beautiful Mind (Moulin Rouge!), Shakespeare in Love (Saving Private Ryan), Braveheart (Apollo 13), and Unforgiven (The Crying Game).
So that’s 7 times in 24 years. Typically, when the PGA announces a winner, you can pretty much call off the Best Picture race and know what’s going to win. Since they use the same voting system that the Academy does. So if something makes it through the PGA, you can count on it making it through the Academy.
Unless what happened tonight happens: (more…)
The Producers Guild announced their nominations today.
To not waste time, we all know that the film that wins this award is pretty much the film that’s gonna win Best Picture. But it’s also very accurate at gauging what the nominees are going to be as well. Last year, they guessed 8 of the 9 nominees. They missed only Amour. In 2011, they guessed 7 of 9, missing Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and The Tree of Life. In 2010, they had 9 of the 10, missing Winter’s Bone. And 2009, they had eight of ten, missing A Serious Man (more on that in a second) and The Blind Side.
So this is a pretty accurate indicator. That said, here are this year’s PGA nominees: (more…)
The PGA Awards were held last night.
As anyone who knows the Oscars knows — this is a huge deal. Huge deal.
The film that has won at the Producers Guild has gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar 16 out of 23 times. (The PGA only started announcing their awards in 1989.) Since 1989, all of the Best Picture winners have matched the PGA winner except:
2006 — PGA gives it to Little Miss Sunshine and The Departed wins Best Picture
2005 — PGA gives it to Brokeback Mountain and Crash wins Best Picture
2004 — PGA gives it to The Aviator and Million Dollar Baby wins Best Picture
2001 — PGA gives it to Moulin Rouge! and A Beautiful Mind wins Best Picture
1998 — PGA gives it to Saving Private Ryan and Shakespeare in Love wins Best Picture
1995 — PGA gives it to Apollo 13 and Braveheart wins Best Picture
1992 — PGA gives it to The Crying Game and Unforgiven wins Best Picture (more…)
When trying to guess what’s going to be nominated (and especially win) Best Picture, the Producers Guild is typically the most important guild to look at. Since 1990, when they started giving out awards, they’ve been wrong on the Best Picture winner six times (which we’ll talk about when they actually hand out a winner). So that’s a pretty good compass for that.
As for nominations — it’s more helpful now that we have (up to) ten nominees to gauge their effectiveness. Example: In 2009 (the first year of the increased nominees), the PGA nominated what ended up being eight of the ten Best Picture nominees (the two they didn’t get were A Serious Man — which had major guild support — and The Blind Side — which nobody saw coming. They nominated Star Trek and Invictus instead). In 2010, they had nine out of ten the same. The one difference was that they nominated The Town instead of Winter’s Bone (which got major guild support). And last year, they got 7 out of 9, which is a bit more problematic, since they nominated ten films. But, the three they had nominated that weren’t nominated for the Oscar were Bridesmaids, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and The Ides of March. And most people consider Dragon Tattoo the one that would have been the #10 nominee had they not done the sliding scale thing. They missed Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (which, like The Blind Side, no one really saw coming) and Tree of Life (which, again… guild support).
So that’s the set up here. After the jump (look at me… all professional-like. I fucking hate how much I love that), we’re gonna list what was nominated and what that probably means for the Oscars. (more…)