This is the epitome of what I do. You’d think it would be the analysis of Oscar night. But by that point, so much of it feels anticlimactic. Then again, I guess you could say that about this year, where the damn PGA already announced a winner before nominations! (Though perhaps that made things even more interesting. We’ll see.)
I think I might be the only person on the internet who tries to straight up guess every single Oscar nominee. Not just the way other places do it, a simple list. I talk my way through the entire thing. History, precursors. You know why I make every decision I make. And I grade myself, percentages and all. Oscar nominations are bright and early tomorrow morning, and right now, we’re gonna run through all 24 categories and I’m gonna see if I can guess every one of them. I’m confident that I’m the only person who does it with this much detail because no one else is stupid enough to even bother doing it.
Every year, there are about 120 nominees. The maximum we can have is 123. Generally it’s 121 or 122, depending on how many Best Picture nominees there are (typically 8 or 9). For most people, you’d think correctly guessing 2/3 of them would be a really solid average. Me, I feel like I’m doing badly if I drop below 70%. I hit 77% and 78.5% the past two years, which was about 95 of the total 122 nominees. The worst I’ve done on this site is 68%, and that was the first year I did it. Every other year was 71% or above. No idea how I do it, and I don’t really care. It’s just fun for me. I don’t mind if I fail horribly (because I’m expecting to), but I am hoping to hit 80% one of these years. Or at least get the annual average up to 75%. Both of those things would be amazing. Read the rest of this page »