This is now an annual thing. Because it’s so ridiculous and improbable that it’s fun. To me, I’d rather have this article than all those bullshit “state of the race” articles the Oscar sites all have. I don’t care how things are looking based on perception and whatever people wanted to write. I want random things based on nothing but random statistical probability that doesn’t take circumstances into account whatsoever.
The idea is — take every Oscar category in the big six, write them all out in alphabetical order, and see how often each of the positions has win. How many times has the first film listed won? How many times has the last one won?
Why do I do this? I don’t know. But I love statistics, and reading something like this appeals to me more than campaigning and talking about how racist the Academy is does. So I keep doing it.
So here’s what’s gonna win based on random statistics this year: (more…)
This is a tradition for me. Every year, before the Oscars, I break down every single one of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with each category, how it works, what its history is, how it usually turns out, and also as a precursor to my picks article, allowing me to get most of the heavy lifting out of the way beforehand.
How these work is — I go over each category’s history, give you all the previous winners and nominees, then list the current year’s nominees. And then I’ll go over how each of the guilds (if there is a corresponding guild) have went, and how that corresponds to the Oscars (some guilds mean a lot to how a category will play out. Others mean nothing). It’s basically everything you need to know in order to make an informed decision when you make your picks on Oscar night. And then I also rank the nominees at the end in terms of where I see them in terms of their likelihood to win.
We finish our categories with Best Picture, which, at this point, is all but sewn up. (more…)