All right. BAFTAs just got given out. This is the last major puzzle we have left for the Oscars. There are still five guilds left to announce. One of them is pretty important, two of them I can use but probably don’t need, one I definitely don’t need because the winner is obvious and the fifth is irrelevant. This is the one where the winners are gonna influence how I see certain races playing out.
I’ve got nothing else in the way of an introduction. So let’s just see how they voted.
Here are your 2018 BAFTA winners: (more…)
So what we do here each year as a warm up for the Oscars is, I break down each of the 24 categories. The idea is to both familiarize everyone with the category and its history. I look at what the major trends are throughout the past bunch of years, how the precursors tend to go, whether they matter or not, that sort of stuff. I look at how the category came to be this year, and just anything else that seems totally pertinent about it. Then I rank each of the nominees and tell you what their likelihood (at this particular moment in time) of winning is.
This is all prelude to my giant Oscar ballot that I’m gonna give you. But I figure, if you have these as the warmup, it’s not as intimidating. You’ll have seen a lot of the pertinent trends here and we’ll all be able to reference these as a sort of cheat sheet. Plus it shows you where my head is at for how I think each of the categories are gonna go, and you can see me working my way up to all the bad decisions I usually make while guessing. Pretty much, with this, you’ll have a pretty good idea of how the category is gonna turn out.
Today is Best Live Action Short. You know, that category you never pay attention to, that not even the ceremony will pay attention to this year, because they’re probably gonna announce it over a commercial break. (more…)
The ASC Awards were handed out last night.
Cold War won.
I’m not overly surprised, since the major competition was Alfonso Cuaron, who is by and large a director, and not a pure cinematographer. And ASC is not exactly perfect when it comes to being an Oscar prognosticator. So this doesn’t really change where the Oscar map lies just yet, but it does confirm that Cold War is the likely second choice behind Roma, barring what the BAFTAs do later on.
I don’t really think A Star Is Born, Never Look Away or The Favourite really has a huge shot at the moment. So it seems like it’s still Roma’s to lose, unless BAFTA goes a different way. So we’ll see.
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