The Costume Designers Guild Awards were tonight.
To absolutely no one’s surprise, The Favourite won in Period, Black Panther won in Fantasy and Crazy Rich Asians won in Contemporary. I could have written all of that before the ceremony, that’s how obvious those selections were.
So that’s it. That’s the last of the precursors. We’re done here. Oscar voting closed today at 5, and you’ve got every piece of information you’re gonna get. Oscars are on Sunday, and I’ve got a 50,000 word article ready to be uncorked. So get ready for that.
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So what we do here each year as a warm up for the Oscars is, I break down each of the 24 categories. The idea is to both familiarize everyone with the category and its history. I look at what the major trends are throughout the past bunch of years, how the precursors tend to go, whether they matter or not, that sort of stuff. I look at how the category came to be this year, and just anything else that seems totally pertinent about it. Then I rank each of the nominees and tell you what their likelihood (at this particular moment in time) of winning is.
This is all prelude to my giant Oscar ballot that I’m gonna give you. But I figure, if you have these as the warmup, it’s not as intimidating. You’ll have seen a lot of the pertinent trends here and we’ll all be able to reference these as a sort of cheat sheet. Plus it shows you where my head is at for how I think each of the categories are gonna go, and you can see me working my way up to all the bad decisions I usually make while guessing. Pretty much, with this, you’ll have a pretty good idea of how the category is gonna turn out.
Today is Best Adapted Screenplay. One of the races that should leave me happy no matter which way it goes. (more…)