This is a ridiculous little thing I do every year because it’s amusing to me. It’s not about what’s actually going to happen and the perception around the categories — it’s simply trying to boil each category down to a formula based purely on basic statistics.
The idea is to take every Oscar category in the big six, list them alphabetically, tally how many times each position has won, and then predict how the Oscars are going to go this year.
Why do I do this? I don’t know. But I love statistics, and reading something like this appeals to me more than campaigning and talking about how racist the Academy is does. So I keep doing it.
So here’s what’s gonna win this year based on random statistics: (more…)
Every year before the Oscars I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category, how it works, what its history is, how it usually turns out, and also as a precursor to my picks article, allowing me to get most of the heavy lifting out of the way beforehand.
How these work is — I go over each category’s history, give you all the previous winners and nominees, then list the current year’s nominees. And then I’ll go over how each of the guilds (if there is a corresponding guild) have went, and how that corresponds to the Oscars (some guilds mean a lot to how a category will play out. Others mean nothing). It’s basically everything you need to know in order to make an informed decision when you make your picks on Oscar night. And then I also rank the nominees at the end in terms of where I see them in terms of their likelihood to win.
Today is the big one, Best Picture. Which is supposed to be worth a thousand words. But I’m writing 2000. Because fuck you. (more…)