Every year before the Oscars I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category, how it typically goes, voting-wise, historically and also as a precursor to my picks article, allowing me to get most of the heavy lifting out of the way beforehand.
What I do is go over each category’s history, give you all the previous winners and nominees, then list the current year’s nominees. And then I’ll go over how each of the guilds (if there is a corresponding guild) have voted, how that corresponds to the Oscars (some guilds mean a lot to how a category will play out. Others mean nothing). It’s basically everything you need to know in order to make an informed decision when you make your picks on Oscar night. And then I also rank the nominees at the end in terms of where I see them in terms of their likelihood to win. So you know what the general favorites are.
Today is Best Foreign Language Film. The category that is either locked or you’re just kinda like “…. this one?” (more…)
Damien Chazelle won for La La Land. Shit’s locked, folks. In case you didn’t know already.
I figured I wouldn’t waste your time with a bullshit introduction and all that stuff.
Damien Chazelle won the DGA Award for La La Land, the award that is so accurate that only seven times in the history of the Oscars has it ever differed from the eventual Best Director winner. And two of those times, the person wasn’t even nominated. So we’re looking at 90% confirmation, and then taking into account the two times the winner wasn’t nominated (and assuming the next obvious choice), 93%.
Shit’s locked, guys. Good night, let’s go home, Picture and Director are sealed and now we just gotta figure out how many Oscars La La Land is winning and focus on some of the technical categories and acting categories to try to get some of the more contentious ones right.
– – – – – – – – – – –
The ASC Awards were the second awards from last night we’re dealing with.
To start — they’re not the end-all, be-all for what’s gonna win the Oscar. Going back, they’re 13 for 30 all time. Of the past 24 years, they’re at an even 50%. 12/24. So they’re not something you need to listen to, necessarily.
This year in particular, it’s a pretty open category. You expect La La Land to be a favorite. You expect Silence and Arrival to get votes. Lion will get votes too. And I’m sure Moonlight will as well. It’s pretty open. This will be one of those categories you think about for a while, since so many of them feel practically locked already.
But anyway — your ASC winner this year was Grieg Fraser for Lion. Making that more of a favorite than it was. at this point that and La La Land have to be considered #1 and #2. We’ll see what BAFTA has to say next weekend (though they’re 50% over the past 20 years too, so that’s not gonna necessarily help us all that much).
– – – – – – – – – – –
tonight last night. Three major guild awards being were given out. We’re gonna handle them in order of importance. This one being the least important. (Note: I wrote all these up last night, but was too drunk to actually make sure I actually wrote them up, so they waited until this morning. Nothing beats drinking too much like waking up super early and cooking chili for your Super Bowl party.)
Not that the Annie Awards aren’t important, but so many years it’s like — this year Pixar decided to take themselves out of contention and told nobody to vote for them. Or this year Pixar decided they wanted to win everything. It ultimately doesn’t really affect Best Animated Feature all that much. You typically know what the favorite is without knowing what happened here. They haven’t been particularly helpful in gauging the race, aside from when the obvious choice is gonna win (and even then. Toy Story 3 lost to How to Train Your Dragon at the Annies. And that movie was nominated for Best Picture).
So here are your Annie Award winners for 2016: (more…)