The WGA Awards were announced tonight. A few guilds announced tonight. But they got done first, so they get first dibs.
Moonlight won for Original Screenplay. Arrival won for Adapted Screenplay.
Which basically dominoes that one. Moonlight is nominated Adapted at the Oscars. So that’s a wrap, and now we don’t need to concern ourselves with whether or not Arrival is gonna win.
And all that leaves is Original Screenplay, which is plain old guesswork. And a 50/50 choice, so it’s not too bad.
Though what this does tell me is — for those who want to make the case that Moonlight is a legitimate upset choice for Best Picture, this goes a long way to helping make that argument.
I’d also highly recommend checking out the video of the speeches that were made. Particularly Aaron Sorkin, Oliver Stone and Richard Curtis.
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Every year before the Oscars I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category, how it typically goes, voting-wise, historically and also as a precursor to my picks article, allowing me to get most of the heavy lifting out of the way beforehand.
What I do is go over each category’s history, give you all the previous winners and nominees, then list the current year’s nominees. And then I’ll go over how each of the guilds (if there is a corresponding guild) have voted, how that corresponds to the Oscars (some guilds mean a lot to how a category will play out. Others mean nothing). It’s basically everything you need to know in order to make an informed decision when you make your picks on Oscar night. And then I also rank the nominees at the end in terms of where I see them in terms of their likelihood to win. So you know what the general favorites are.
Today is Best Animated Short. A fun category to watch — not so much for picking. (more…)