I used to do two articles each year. One breaking down all the Best Picture winners by box office performance, which I’m finding much less important and interesting each year, and the other, this one. I’ve decided to get rid of the box office one, because it’s nothing more than just throwing out facts with no real substance. This one, at least, is interesting because it’s just random numbers and using a predictive model.
The idea is — I take all the Big Six Oscar categories, list them alphabetically each year, tally how many times each position has won, and through that, predict based on that model what nominees “should” win this year. I don’t know why I do it, but it amuses me.
Based on the numbers, here’s what’s gonna win: (more…)
Every year before the Oscars I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category, how it typically goes, voting-wise, historically and also as a precursor to my picks article, allowing me to get most of the heavy lifting out of the way beforehand.
What I do is go over each category’s history, give you all the previous winners and nominees, then list the current year’s nominees. And then I’ll go over how each of the guilds (if there is a corresponding guild) have voted, how that corresponds to the Oscars (some guilds mean a lot to how a category will play out. Others mean nothing). It’s basically everything you need to know in order to make an informed decision when you make your picks on Oscar night. And then I also rank the nominees at the end in terms of where I see them in terms of their likelihood to win. So you know what the general favorites are.
Today is the big one, Best Picture. I’m gonna talk a lot and then tell you to ultimately take the favorite. Because I’m not stupid. (more…)