The American Society of Cinematographers announced their awards tonight. Roger Deakins won it for Blade Runner 2049.
Before we get all excited about how this makes him a favorite for the Oscar, know that this is his fourth ASC win (after Shawshank, The Man Who Wasn’t There and Skyfall), and he has exactly zero Oscar wins to show for it. So let’s not jump the gun on this one just yet. I’ve had my heart broken many times on the Deakins train, and I’m not about to let my hopes get dashed yet again without having all the facts.
Him winning is a big step in the right direction, however, ASC is not scripture when it comes to Oscar winners. Just last year, ASC gave their award to Lion, when it was La La Land that ultimately won the Oscar. ASC is only 6 out of the past 10 years and 9 of the past 20. So it’s not over yet. BAFTA announces tomorrow, and that’ll be a big help if he wins that on top of this and the BFCA award he’s already won.
Right now, I count him, Hoyte van Hoytema for Dunkirk and Dan Lautsen for Shape of Water as the three favorites to win. (Mudbound has almost no shot, unfortunately, as does Darkest Hour.) So if BAFTA goes Deakins’ way too, I’ll be real interested to see how this one turns out on Oscar night.
– – – – – – – – – – –
Every year, as we lead up to the Oscars, I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category; what the trends are, how the guilds and stuff help (or don’t), etc. I also do it as a precursor to my giant Oscar ballot. I get most of the heavy lifting out of the way here, so that way when I get to the article, I’m just kind of riffing on how I think it’ll turn out and talking myself into all the bad decisions. It’s like college. And this is the pregame.
How these articles work is — I give you all the previous winners and nominees of each of the categories, then tell you how accurate each of the respective guilds and precursors are in what they vote for versus what wins the Oscar, tell you how each of them voted this year, then give you this year’s category, along with a quick rundown of how we ended up with that category (what was a surprise, etc). After that, I rank each of this year’s nominees in terms of how I see them right now in terms of their likelihood to win. Which is nothing more than my perception (notice that underline, even though you won’t) of how the category seems at the moment based on everything I know and have seen. Which will give you a general sense of the favorites.
Today is Best Original Score. Aural-right, aural-right, aural-right. (Look guys, it’s been a long week, just let me have this one.) (more…)