Every year, as we lead up to the Oscars, I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category; what the trends are, how the guilds and stuff help (or don’t), etc. I also do it as a precursor to my giant Oscar ballot. I get most of the heavy lifting out of the way here, so that way when I get to the article, I’m just kind of riffing on how I think it’ll turn out and talking myself into all the bad decisions. It’s like college. And this is the pregame.
How these articles work is — I give you all the previous winners and nominees of each of the categories, then tell you how accurate each of the respective guilds and precursors are in what they vote for versus what wins the Oscar, tell you how each of them voted this year, then give you this year’s category, along with a quick rundown of how we ended up with that category (what was a surprise, etc). After that, I rank each of this year’s nominees in terms of how I see them right now in terms of their likelihood to win. Which is nothing more than my perception (notice that underline, even though you won’t) of how the category seems at the moment based on everything I know and have seen. Which will give you a general sense of the favorites.
Today is Best Cinematography, aka the Is This Finally Roger Deakins’ Year Award. (more…)
The Motion Picture Sound Editors announced their winners last night. Here are the winner:
Dialogue + ADR: War for the Planet of the Apes
Effects + Foley: Blade Runner 2049
Musical: The Greatest Showman
Interesting that Dunkirk wins for Music and now for Effects + Foley. And that Baby Driver wins nothing. This year is starting to sound a lot like last year, where either Dunkirk, the war film, wins both Sound categories, or there’s a split between it and Blade Runner or it and Baby Driver or some combination of the three. I don’t expect Star Wars to win either one, and Shape of Water… not sure it wins the Sound categories. CAS announces on Saturday. We’ll have a better handle on the Sound categories then.
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