The BAFTA Awards were just announced. This is the last major awards show before the Oscars, and typically what you get when they announce is a sense of “okay, this is what’s locked, and this is what’s gonna be open ended on Oscar night.” A few guilds still have to announce, but by and large, we have a sense of the majority of the categories at this moment.
We still have MPSE tonight, which we don’t necessarily need, CDG on Tuesday, which we don’t need at all, and CAS next weekend, which is helpful but I think we have a good sense of that category too.
I don’t have much else, so let’s just get into who won and what it means: (more…)
Every year, as we lead up to the Oscars, I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category; what the trends are, how the guilds and stuff help (or don’t), etc. I also do it as a precursor to my giant Oscar ballot. I get most of the heavy lifting out of the way here, so that way when I get to the article, I’m just kind of riffing on how I think it’ll turn out and talking myself into all the bad decisions. It’s like college. And this is the pregame.
How these articles work is — I give you all the previous winners and nominees of each of the categories, then tell you how accurate each of the respective guilds and precursors are in what they vote for versus what wins the Oscar, tell you how each of them voted this year, then give you this year’s category, along with a quick rundown of how we ended up with that category (what was a surprise, etc). After that, I rank each of this year’s nominees in terms of how I see them right now in terms of their likelihood to win. Which is nothing more than my perception (notice that underline, even though you won’t) of how the category seems at the moment based on everything I know and have seen. Which will give you a general sense of the favorites.
Today is Best Visual Effects, which feels a lot like an afterthought this year, much like it did last year. (more…)