Every year, as we lead up to the Oscars, I break down each of the 24 categories. I do this to familiarize everyone with the category; what the trends are, how the guilds and stuff help (or don’t), etc. I also do it as a precursor to my giant Oscar ballot. I get most of the heavy lifting out of the way here, so that way when I get to the article, I’m just kind of riffing on how I think it’ll turn out and talking myself into all the bad decisions. It’s like college. And this is the pregame.
How these articles work is — I give you all the previous winners and nominees of each of the categories, then tell you how accurate each of the respective guilds and precursors are in what they vote for versus what wins the Oscar, tell you how each of them voted this year, then give you this year’s category, along with a quick rundown of how we ended up with that category (what was a surprise, etc). After that, I rank each of this year’s nominees in terms of how I see them right now in terms of their likelihood to win. Which is nothing more than my perception (notice that underline, even though you won’t) of how the category seems at the moment based on everything I know and have seen. Which will give you a general sense of the favorites.
Today is Best Sound Editing. AKA the one that’s not Sound Mixing. Because everyone knows the difference, right? (more…)
The Costume Designers Guild handed out their awards last night.
The Period award went to The Shape of Water.
The Fantasy award went to Wonder Woman.
The Contemporary Award went to I, Tonya.
For those who think this is a big blow against Phantom Thread’s chances in this category on Oscar night, just know that the Oscar winner in three of the past six years straight up lost this category at the guild. All this really tells you is that The Shape of Water is now something you gotta factor into the Costumes race a little bit more (which I’d hope you’d end up doing anyway, given the 13 overall nominations).
One more major guild left to announce — CAS on Saturday (and the Makeup & Hairstylists Guild as well, but I don’t think we need them just yet to gauge that category). We’re two weeks out and we’re just about all set, guys.
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