The Cinema Audio Society announced their awards tonight as well. In an over three-hour ceremony, they produced exactly one category of note for our purposes. Which is for Best Sound Mixing.
The winner was Dunkirk, which pretty much cements that as the winner of at least one of the two Sound categories at the Oscars. But you already probably knew that.
That’s the last precursor, guys. You now have all the information you need to guess what’s gonna win next Sunday. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t already 35,000 words into my giant picks article, but what can I say, this is my favorite thing to do each year. I can’t help it if I’m nuts.
See you guys on Sunday.
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The Eddie Awards were given out last night. Here are the winners:
Comedy/Musical: I, Tonya
Dunkirk makes sense. War movies do well in this category. See: Hacksaw Ridge last year. Gonna be tough to beat that one in the end. I, Tonya, also nominated for Editing, also makes sense as a winner. Baby Driver fares better if not for Dunkirk. The only movie that can jump up and win is Shape of Water, which I don’t think needs Editing or will win Editing. I think Dunkirk ends up taking it pretty easily.
Otherwise — Coco, we know is already locked for Animated. And Jane wasn’t nominated for Documentary. How’s that one looking now?
We’re breaking down categories in like a week, but this one seemed self-explanatory from the start.
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Oscar nominees were announced this morning. Let’s see what it all means.
What I love about this day is that we’re no longer guessing what can or will be. Now we’re left with what is, and this is the reality going forward. So now it’s a matter of figuring out what’ll win.
But, before we move onto that, let’s look at what happened and try to figure out why it happened. And, more importantly, how I did in guessing it. Because I am nothing if not narcissistic.
Here are the 90th Academy Award nominations: (more…)
The Oscar nominations were just announced. I’ll write them up later, but here they are:
Call Me by Your Name
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (more…)
This is the epitome of what I do. You’d think it would be the analysis of Oscar night. But by that point, so much of it feels anticlimactic. Then again, I guess you could say that about this year, where the damn PGA already announced a winner before nominations! (Though perhaps that made things even more interesting. We’ll see.)
I think I might be the only person on the internet who tries to straight up guess every single Oscar nominee. Not just the way other places do it, a simple list. I talk my way through the entire thing. History, precursors. You know why I make every decision I make. And I grade myself, percentages and all. Oscar nominations are bright and early tomorrow morning, and right now, we’re gonna run through all 24 categories and I’m gonna see if I can guess every one of them. I’m confident that I’m the only person who does it with this much detail because no one else is stupid enough to even bother doing it.
Every year, there are about 120 nominees. The maximum we can have is 123. Generally it’s 121 or 122, depending on how many Best Picture nominees there are (typically 8 or 9). For most people, you’d think correctly guessing 2/3 of them would be a really solid average. Me, I feel like I’m doing badly if I drop below 70%. I hit 77% and 78.5% the past two years, which was about 95 of the total 122 nominees. The worst I’ve done on this site is 68%, and that was the first year I did it. Every other year was 71% or above. No idea how I do it, and I don’t really care. It’s just fun for me. I don’t mind if I fail horribly (because I’m expecting to), but I am hoping to hit 80% one of these years. Or at least get the annual average up to 75%. Both of those things would be amazing. (more…)
This’ll be quick. The PGA Awards were last night. The Shape of Water won Best Picture. That, coupled with all the other wins — it’s the big favorite at the moment. We’ll see how things go from here on out (since they haven’t even announced nominations yet!), but it’s a huge favorite to win the whole thing.
The PGA’s been wrong the past two years, so it’s not a done deal yet. But this is a big step.
Also, Jane won for Documentary and Coco won for Animated. Which shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone.
The Visual Effects Society announced their nominees. I hate talking about them because there are just so many categories. I don’t even bother mentioning some of them because it gets really specific and doesn’t have a whole lot to do with guessing the Oscars. Good for them for giving the guild members their due, but it’s just too much for me to handle. Commercials, student films — too much.
Before we get into the nominees, a reminder of your shortlist:
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
War for the Planet of the Apes
Five of these ten will be nominated on Tuesday. So here are your VES nominees. Let’s see how these ten fare: (more…)