They also announced these last week. These are closer to being slightly meaningful for the Oscars, but the fact that I waited this long to talk about them should tell you how little they truly matter. Mostly it’s just indie people promoting indies, and usually the indies that are the real Oscar contenders end up shining. But mainly it’s just an excuse for everyone to get drunk in a giant tent in Santa Monica the day before the Oscars. Which I approve of wholeheartedly.
I honestly blindly copy-pasted these categories the day they were announced and didn’t even look at them until now, so, as usual, this is just gonna be my gut reaction based on seeing everything as we go through the article. I suspect nothing here will be particularly surprising or helpful, but mostly I’ll go, “Oh, good for them,” because stuff I know will never get any Oscar attention will get some love here, which at least gives it something.
Anyway, here are your 2019 Indie Spirit Award nominees: (more…)
The CAS Awards were also given out tonight. Hooray, Sound Mixing.
The winner was Bohemian Rhapsody, which paints a really interesting picture for Oscar night. I suspected this would be the case for the guild, but with First Man being nominated in both categories, and my everlasting mantra of “Don’t split the Sound categories, Mike,” I’m really wondering how this one is gonna turn out. There’s a chance First Man wins Editing and this wins Mixing. But we’ll see. I’m still figuring out my final thoughts on everything and preparing my giant 45,000 word Oscar article (I’m wondering if we approach 50,000 words this year). Apparently that’s about what a decent-sized novel would be. That sounds about right for the nonsense I spew.
Oh, and Isle of Dogs won for Animation and Free Solo won for Documentary. The latter makes sense at first glance. I assume Isle of Dogs beat Spider-Verse, which I kinda get. Music tends to be a factor in Mixing more than the other categories. But honestly anything outside of the big category is meaningless to me. Let’s not pretend either of those factor into their races.
Tomorrow night is WGA and MPSE, and then CDG is the last precursor on Tuesday, and then we’re totally done in terms of precursors and it’s just straight up guessing at that point. We’re in the final stretch, guys. This is it. The Endgame. Shit’s about to start turning into dust and stuff.
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Funny story — I forgot VES was handing out awards today. I was writing up my Best Visual Effects category breakdown and went to look up when VES would be announcing so I’d have an idea… turns out, it was tonight. So here’s your VES write-up.
This guild is a function of what your Oscar nominees are. Really they help only so far. You look to BAFTA to confirm where you think things are leaning, and the Oscar category is a mixture of that plus just looking at it, because a lot of the time the answer is obvious.
Here’s your Visual Effects Oscar category, to make things easier:
Avengers: Infinity War
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
There are seven major VES awards. Avengers: Infinity War won four of them, Best Effects, Animated Character, Composting and Effects Simulations. Ready Player One won two, Created Environment and Virtual Cinematography. First Man won for Supporting Effects. Also worth noting, Mortal Engines won for Models, and in Animated, Into the Spider-Verse swept everything, winning for Best Animated Effects, Animated Character, Created Environment and Effects Simulations.
So, on this alone, you might say Avengers is the frontrunner for the Oscar. I’m not going there just yet. I want to see what BAFTA does. Especially since the Oscar tends to go to the “classier” film with more of a pedigree, and that clearly seems like First Man in this case. If BAFTA goes Ready Player One then we have a decision on our hands. If Avengers manages to win BAFTA, then I may be swayed. And if First Man wins BAFTA, then you pretty much know exactly how this one’s gonna turn out.
I’m not calling this a huge win for Marvel just yet, only because they’ve yet to win the actual Oscar category. So let’s see where we’re at on Sunday once BAFTA announces and then regroup. I feel like, if anything, this might be a big Avengers red herring when First Man is staring us in the face all along as the probable winner of the category.
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The Eddie Awards were handed out last night. Your winners:
Dramatic: Bohemian Rhapsody
Comedy: The Favourite
Animated: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Documentary: Free Solo
So there you go. Can’t say I’m overly surprised. In Dramatic, only BlacKkKlansman and Bohemian Rhapsody made the final Oscar list, so if you were going on that alone, Rhapsody was the choice. And Comedy had the other three Editing nominees. I would have suspected Green Book, but The Favourite makes sense. I want to see what BAFTA does. Because if they go First Man or something off the board, then we’re really in a nice little pickle in picking this category. BFCA already went First Man and that’s now off the board. I’m thinking these two are the main two at the Oscars. BlacKkKlansman always felt like “nominee, not winner” in most of its categories and Green Book feels like it only wins Editing if they’re making a decisive statement on Picture. I guess Vice could sneak in, but I don’t know if it’ll rally that kind of support. I guess we’ll find out. But honestly, I think Bohemian Rhapsody is looking like your frontrunner for Best Editing at the Oscars. Look out, guys. This movie’s got support.
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The Oscar nominees were announced this morning. I posted the nominees, but without comment. Now’s the time when we actually see how it all went and what it all means.
What I say every year about this day is — there’s no more “what if” or “could be.” This is it. This is what we have. These are the Oscar nominees. All that is done. Now the reality is figuring out what’s gonna win.
But before that, let’s analyze it all. See what surprised, see what the totals are, and, selfishly, see how well I guessed all the nominees. Why else?
Here are your 91st Academy Award nominations: (more…)
Here are your 91st Academy Award nominations:
A Star Is Born
If you were to list my three favorite articles to write each year, it would be — 3) Top Ten List, 2) Nominations Ballot, 1) Oscar picks article. I love this day. I love it so much.
And, in a way, while I do enjoy writing up the Oscar picks article slightly more than writing up this one, this article means more to me. I much prefer doing better here than on Oscar night. There are gonna be about 120 nominees announced tomorrow. If I can guess 90 of them, I’m happy. And if I can guess 90 of them and be right there on the alternates, I’m even happier. Forget going 20/24 on Oscar night. This is where it’s at. This is what takes skill.
And yes, this is going to be an article where I attempt to guess every single Oscar nominee. I’ve done it every year since I started this site, and I’ve always been above 2/3. The worst I did was 68% in my first year. Since then I’ve been above 70. Last year was 74.5% and my personal best was 78.5%. My next goal is to get either above 80% or over 100 total correct, whichever comes first.
I also, unlike a lot of the other sites (I know, because I used to read them before I realized I could make the same mistakes on my own), won’t just give you a list. I will talk you through my entire thought process. I’ll show you how I get to my decisions. The idea being it will give you all the information you need to do this too, should you want to. And hopefully you can all go forth and pick better than I can and make me proud. (I’m like a middle school teacher, but for useless stuff.) (more…)