CAS announced their winner tonight.
It was La La Land.
The original musical that’s gonna win Best Picture is also gonna win Best Sound Mixing.
A bunch more precursors tomorrow.
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The ASC Awards were the second awards from last night we’re dealing with.
To start — they’re not the end-all, be-all for what’s gonna win the Oscar. Going back, they’re 13 for 30 all time. Of the past 24 years, they’re at an even 50%. 12/24. So they’re not something you need to listen to, necessarily.
This year in particular, it’s a pretty open category. You expect La La Land to be a favorite. You expect Silence and Arrival to get votes. Lion will get votes too. And I’m sure Moonlight will as well. It’s pretty open. This will be one of those categories you think about for a while, since so many of them feel practically locked already.
But anyway — your ASC winner this year was Grieg Fraser for Lion. Making that more of a favorite than it was. at this point that and La La Land have to be considered #1 and #2. We’ll see what BAFTA has to say next weekend (though they’re 50% over the past 20 years too, so that’s not gonna necessarily help us all that much).
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The Eddie Awards were given out last night.
Comedy/Musical: La La Land
Documentary: O.J. Made in America
So basically the same set that won the PGAs tonight. No surprises there. La La Land should take the Oscar pretty easily because there’s no incentive for them to vote anywhere else.
For better or worse, we’re kinda locked for a lot of the Oscars already, and we’re all gonna do pretty well overall. The only question is getting those middle of the road categories right. But we’ll get into that next week, when we start breaking down categories.
This will be quick.
The PGA Awards were tonight.
La La Land won. As if there were any doubt about that one.
The only chance Moonlight really had was to pull off a win here. But theoretically if BAFTA and SAG were to go for it, we could mount a decent argument that they’d go there, even though the PGA is always the thing. (more…)
Now that we have our Oscar nominations, we can stop dealing in one form of guesswork, and engage in another.
But before we do that, let’s take a minute to react about what is or isn’t nominated this year, what decisions they made that will change how I go about this in the future, what surprises the shit out of me, and just what we think about this list, because this is the only time I really get to sit here and do this. Because from here on out, it’s all about figuring out who from these lists will win, since these are the nominees, and nothing will change that.
Except a good disqualification and scandal. And that’s always fun. (more…)
It’s not yet 6am in Los Angeles, and the Oscar nominations are announced.
As I do, I get up and type the list up as they say it. I could wait and copy/paste it, but I do not. Because I am stupid.
So here are your 89th Academy Award Nominations: (more…)
This is the article I build toward every year. You’d think it was the Top Ten list, or Oscar night picks. Nope. This is the one I look forward to most. Because I think I might be the only person that straight up tries to pick all the Oscar nominees, from Best Picture on down to Best Live-Action Short.
Typically each year there are about 120 nominees. Give or take one or two. The fluctuation on the Best Picture list is what decides what the final number is going to be. The max we can have is 123. Generally we have either 121 or 122. I try to get 2/3 of them right, but I feel good if I hit around 70%. Which is around 85. Last year I got 95, which was 78.5%. I have no illusions about getting anywhere near that number again. I tend to hit low 70s — which is 85/86. That I’d feel happy with. 75% as an average would be amazing. If I can crack 80%, I’d be ecstatic.
The way I do this is break down, category by category, go over all the precursors and all the little details that most people overlook/all the stuff I’ve learned from experience, and I tell you why I think everything I pick will be nominated.
I feel very confident in saying that no one gives you as in depth coverage on this as I do. Which is to stay that no one is stupid enough to pick 123 potential nominations and grade themselves on how they do. (more…)