The SAG Awards were handed out tonight.
I actually missed part of the show because I figured they’d wait for the football to be done. But apparently not. Fortunately by the time I realized, the game was already a blowout, so I was able to watch both and not really have to pay full attention to either.
This is my least favorite awards show, but the results mean the most of just about any of them. Plus, going in, I could have told you every single film winner. So there wasn’t really a whole lot of surprise there or anything for me to want to see, and really it was just about seeing who gave the best speeches (Brad Pitt wins again on that front and De Niro had a great one too, specifically when he was speaking from the heart and not reading from his prepared words).
So let’s just get into it. Here are your SAG winners: (more…)
Okay, so Oscar nominations are out. The moment we’ve all been waiting for. I posted the list earlier, but by itself and without comment, because I woke up at 5:30 and typed the nominations As they were spoken. This is all from the time between then and now, as I’ve thought about it all and could talk somewhat coherently about it all.
Somehow I thought they started reading the nominations at 5:30. You know, like it said. So I woke up and saw Issa Rae and John Cho had already finished half the nominees. So I went back, hurriedly typed out twelve categories and caught it just as they started round two. At least I didn’t sleep totally through them, which has happened before.
Anyway, the thing I always say now is — we’ve just crossed that Autosave zone. There’s no going back now. No more talk about what can or will be nominated — this is the list. This is what we have now and in perpetuity. We get our ‘shouldn’t have been nominated’ stuff out now, but this is what we got. Now all that matters is what’s going to win. And that’s what we’ll be talking about for the next 24 days. Because literally I have to start category breakdowns TOMORROW due to the truncated schedule. We’re gonna go 24 days from tomorrow through all the categories and that takes us to two days BEFORE the Oscars. That’s how short this time period is.
But anyway, let’s see how it all went down. What the surprises were, where the snubs came, what this means for picking the winners. All that good stuff.
Here are your 92nd Academy Award nominations: (more…)
Ford v Ferrari
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Sam Mandes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (more…)
BFCA announced their awards tonight. I spent the whole day writing up my Nominations Ballot, so I’ve paid zero attention to this. Fortunately, though, the night before nominations, we get some precursor winners, which already has helped sway me in at least one category, and that was just me glancing at stuff. So let’s go down all the categories and see if the winners help change my opinion on stuff or further solidify how I feel about nominees / what’s probably going to win.
Here are your BFCA winners: (more…)
I get so excited for this article, but it feels like we’re just rushing right into it this year. Which is because it’s coming about a week earlier this year than it usually does, pushed up due to the fact that the Oscars are three weeks early this year. It doesn’t matter. I’m still gonna go all out and blather on forever. Because it’s what I do. This article only comes second to the actual Oscar night article in terms of how all out I go in talking about stuff that only matters to me and just about no one else.
Tomorrow morning, at 5:30am PST, they will announce the Oscar nominees. There will be anywhere from 120 and 125 nominees, owing to the sliding scale for Best Picture. There will be 120 for sure, and there can be up to 125. If previous years hold, expect either 123 or 124. I’m gonna try to guess all of them correctly. Because that’s what I do. Typically, if I can get to 90, I’m happy. If I can hit 75% or more, I’m thrilled. The goal is to, one of these years, get to 80%. But that’s all hypothetical. I’m really just here to guess shit and talk about Oscars. The rest is just personal goals to make it more interesting for myself.
The tens of you who read this site should know by now that I’m not just gonna give you the same shit everyone gives you. Most people just give you a list and don’t explain themselves or they guess based on what’s gonna get them clicks. You know I don’t do the latter ever and I refuse to give you the former. I’m gonna give you way more information than you could ever possibly need. My goal is to do well enough for you to be able to do better than me. I’m not just telling you, I’m showing you the thought process so you can hopefully find some creases that I don’t see (or refuse to acknowledge because of whatever shred of pride there is left in these cockles). It’s not about how well I do. It’s about empowering you to do better. (more…)
The Makeup & Hairstylist Guild Awards were given out last night. I’ll make this quick, because we have nominations to guess.
Bombshell won Contemporary Makeup, Contemporary Hair and Special Makeup Effects. Joker won Period/Character Makeup and Downton Abbey won Period/Character Hair.
As a reminder, your shortlist is:
Dolemite Is My Name
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Once upon a Time in Hollywood
So that probably helps us out for later. Even though I think you could have probably figured a lot of that out just by looking at the shortlist.
Nominations Ballot coming at you in a few hours. I’m toiling away on it as you read this.
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Okay, so I waited on this one until morning just because I knew there were gonna be ones that didn’t make the shortlist because they were deemed ineligible. So I went and looked that up first before getting into this article. Because of course we were gonna talk about that part of it.
There were 170 scores eligible to be on this list. The major ones that were not eligible were Knives Out, Ad Astra, The Irishman, Captain Marvel and A Hidden Life. Knives Out was apparently because someone fucked up while submitting it, Ad Astra is because there are two credited composers, but only one of them did the majority of the score, which is apparently against the rules. Irishman and Hidden Life are because of the appearance of too much non-score. Captain Marvel wasn’t submitted at all. Not that I thought it would have gotten on, but it’s worth noting.
Anyway, of all the things submitted, here are the 15 that made it on the shortlist: (more…)
We’ll finish up today with this one, since I went over this list a few hours ago. I wanted to save it for the end, but the other stuff requires actual effort for me to speak intelligently about them, so we’ll finish with the last easy one. (Score is also kinda easy, but I also have to look at what wasn’t eligible and all that, so I’ll just save it for the morning when I’m fresh.)
There were 75 films eligible to get on this and they shortlisted 15 of them. It seems like a weak year, so I’m expecting at least ten of these to go to the ones I tossed on my list. Honestly, let’s just see what they did.
Here’s your shortlist for Best Original Song: (more…)
Let’s do Makeup & Hairstyling next. Because I’m thinking I wanna end the night on some easy ones and save all the shorts for tomorrow when I can properly do my homework on all of them and be prepared.
The new development with this category is that there are not ten films on the shortlist instead of eight and the category will be five films instead of three. So that’s new. Guessing they announced that during the months I don’t really pay attention to Oscar stuff. But hey, this category is coming to play with the big boys.
Wonder what that means for guessing a category and the winner, since now it’s allowing for broader stuff to get on that might not necessarily be as good a fit but could get votes because of broader support. But whatever. That’s what we have.
Here’s your shortlist for Best Makeup & Hairstyling: (more…)
Let’s do Foreign Language Film next.
They changed it to International Feature, but I hate that distinction. It’s trying to be politically correct when it just sounds like a euphemism designed to make them sound more inclusive when we know they’re same ass people we get mad at every damn year.
Anyway, we went over the 91 eligible films two weeks ago. So this is really just cleaning up all of that and making my life easier. Let’s get into what they shortlisted and then we’ll figure out the rest as we go.
Here’s your shortlist for Best International Feature: (more…)
Let’s start with Best Documentary Feature. Since this is a category I decided to half-give a shit about this year. They announced their list of 159 films eligible for the category and I skimmed it to see which ones seemed important/would be interesting for me personally and pulled those and tried to watch as many as I could before now. I’m still working. I have two or three left from my original list and will likely add a few more from this.
But hey, I’m trying to care. And that’s new. Normally I can only be bothered about documentaries after they’re in contention. So look at that. Growth. Only took a decade. Doubt it’ll last, but hey, we got somewhere.
Anyway, they narrowed down the list to 15 contenders, of which 5 will eventually be nominates. So let’s see what mistakes the Documentary branch made this year. Here is your shortlist: (more…)
That’s right, people. It’s back!
Okay, so no, it’s not officially back. The Academy is pulling that same bullshit that they did last year and only releasing a shortlist instead of all the eligible songs and then the shortlist (cowards). In fact, that shortlist is due any time now, so I’m not even gonna look for it or any of the others until I finish this article.
All — and I mean all credit to The Wrap, who managed to get a hold of the eligibles list and released an article going over their opinions of each of the nominated songs, cannily putting the titles of all of them in the article, giving us a nice tidy list without officially releasing the list. Good on you, guys.
I don’t know what the Academy is thinking, not releasing the list anymore. It’s like what the NBA did that one time where they were like, “You know, we’re not gonna televise that All Star Game draft where the players pick each other for the teams.” And a lot of people were like, “What the hell are you talking about? We love that!” Because, if people like something, they can’t get enough of it. They want more. Though something tells me that was them trying to cover their asses so they don’t look bad when the branch does something stupid (as they usually do) and doesn’t nominate one of the big songs. But trust me, guys, Original Song is not the branch you need to worry about in terms of that happening. It’s Documentaries first and International Film second. Song is a distant third at this point, and potentially could even fall out of that spot, given how generally good they’ve been over the past couple of years since they updated that archaic voting system.
Anyway, let’s get into this article, because it damn well may be the last time we ever get this again, so let’s enjoy it while we can.
Here are all 75 eligible songs for Best Original Song this year: (more…)
Well, this is early. Okay, sure, this is exactly the same time we get the SAG nominations every year. But it feels early. Mostly because I’m not gonna bother to really pay attention to this list for another month. But hey, here we are. This is it. This is all we’re gonna get, outside of BAFTA to help us with the acting categories. So, let’s just see what we’ve got, rather than try to waste time.
Here are your 2019 SAG nominees: (more…)
The Critics Choice Award nominations were announced today. Somehow I thought they were mid-week, but I’ll take them now. I wonder if they wanted to get a jump on the Golden Globes, which are getting announced tomorrow. BFCA is usually the first to announce winners and always sort of sets the pace for everything else, even if the others feel slightly more important, results-wise. Either way, I’m happy to see them.
This is our first step to Oscar season. After tomorrow, we’re gonna basically have half the puzzle. After tomorrow, we’re just waiting on each of the individual guilds (which includes SAG and PGA) and BAFTA. But, today we’ve got the critics, so let’s see what they nominated.
Here are your 2019 Critics Choice nominees: (more…)
They announced this shortlist about three weeks ago, but I wanted to wait until I was mentally ready to start thinking about Oscar season before I posted it. (Because even though I don’t read that stuff, I’m already sick and tired of what I know are the countless articles out there talking about whether or not Endgame or Joker are gonna be nominated for and win Best Picture. Hearing people ask me about that stuff is like when your relative quotes something they heard on Fox News. Spare me, please.)
But, it’s almost that time, folks. And what better way to move into Oscar season than by talking about the Makeup & Hairstylists Guild!?
It’s gonna be another two weeks or so until we get our shortlist, so for now we’re operating in a vacuum. Plus, this is the one guild that is most meaningless to the proceedings because they’re gonna shortlist seven choices and only three will be nominated, and if previous years are any indication — what wins here means nothing there. A lot of times things get left off the shortlist and a lot of times you know from the jump what’s gonna get nominated and win. But hey, the season is starting. Think of this as the first almost-snowfall before the Oscar blizzard is upon us.
Here are your 2019 Makeup & Hairstylist Guild nominees: (more…)
Hey everyone. The Makeup & Hairstylist Guild Awards were tonight. I remember a few years ago they offered me accreditation to attend their awards as a journalist and I thought, “Man, are you guys that desperate for coverage of your event that you think I’m a journalist?” That was fun. Almost wish I’d taken them up on it. I’m still here if you guys wanna invite me next time. I’m completely meaningless, but I’m all about what you guys do. You’re all unsung heroes of the craft.
Anyway, they gave out five awards that matter. Vice won for Period and/or Character Makeup and Special Makeup Effects, Mary Queen of Scots won for Period and/or Character Hairstyling. A Star Is Born won for Contemporary Makeup (sure, I guess?) and Crazy Rich Asians won for Contemporary Hairstyling.
So yeah. Not much of what we didn’t already know. Vice and Mary Queen of Scots, both of which are nominated in the Oscar category with Border. It’s pretty clear how the category is gonna turn out. But you know what, these people got their due and they deserve it.
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So the SAG Awards were last night. I almost didn’t watch. That’s how little I really expected the results to mean anything. At this point they’re almost like every other guild. I almost just looked at the results after the fact.
BUT… had I done that, I would have missed the really important thing that happened during the show, which is — Scott Bakula showed up. And boy, am I glad I got to see Scott Bakula.
Here are your SAG winners: (more…)
I’d call this a SAG preview, but let’s face it — we know what this article is about.
I considered not even putting one out there, but you know what? For me it’s not about the predictions. I don’t even care about guessing half these awards. For me it’s all about the result and what it means for the race. So really all I’m doing is talking about where the race is now and what outcomes seem most likely and how things will be affected based on who wins and who doesn’t.
And it’s a good way to bullshit another article that takes less than twenty minutes to write. Look, I don’t need extra content, but when it’s this easy, screw it, right?
So here’s your SAG Awards “Preview”. (more…)
The Oscar nominees were announced this morning. I posted the nominees, but without comment. Now’s the time when we actually see how it all went and what it all means.
What I say every year about this day is — there’s no more “what if” or “could be.” This is it. This is what we have. These are the Oscar nominees. All that is done. Now the reality is figuring out what’s gonna win.
But before that, let’s analyze it all. See what surprised, see what the totals are, and, selfishly, see how well I guessed all the nominees. Why else?
Here are your 91st Academy Award nominations: (more…)
Here are your 91st Academy Award nominations:
A Star Is Born
If you were to list my three favorite articles to write each year, it would be — 3) Top Ten List, 2) Nominations Ballot, 1) Oscar picks article. I love this day. I love it so much.
And, in a way, while I do enjoy writing up the Oscar picks article slightly more than writing up this one, this article means more to me. I much prefer doing better here than on Oscar night. There are gonna be about 120 nominees announced tomorrow. If I can guess 90 of them, I’m happy. And if I can guess 90 of them and be right there on the alternates, I’m even happier. Forget going 20/24 on Oscar night. This is where it’s at. This is what takes skill.
And yes, this is going to be an article where I attempt to guess every single Oscar nominee. I’ve done it every year since I started this site, and I’ve always been above 2/3. The worst I did was 68% in my first year. Since then I’ve been above 70. Last year was 74.5% and my personal best was 78.5%. My next goal is to get either above 80% or over 100 total correct, whichever comes first.
I also, unlike a lot of the other sites (I know, because I used to read them before I realized I could make the same mistakes on my own), won’t just give you a list. I will talk you through my entire thought process. I’ll show you how I get to my decisions. The idea being it will give you all the information you need to do this too, should you want to. And hopefully you can all go forth and pick better than I can and make me proud. (I’m like a middle school teacher, but for useless stuff.) (more…)
The Critics Choice Awards were tonight.
They don’t mean a whole lot to me now, since I’m in the middle of figuring out what’ll get nominated for the Oscars. Sure, this helps a little bit, but winners really only matter after we get nominees. So some of it will factor into my decision-making, but I suspect a lot of this will confirm what I already suspected to be the prevailing winds.
Generally what I’m looking for here is to see if some things win that I think may potentially be left off the Oscar list, which could help shore up a nomination (at least spiritually). Otherwise, I expect this all to be confirmation bias.
Here are your Critics Choice winners: (more…)
Here we go, the one guild you’ve all been waiting for — Makeup & Hairstyling!
We have a shortlist for this, so really all these nominations are going to be viewed through the lens of that. But hey, a few years ago we didn’t have this guild to help us out, so really anything helps.
Just as a reminder, your shortlist is: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, Border, Mary Queen of Scots, Stan & Ollie, Suspiria and Vice. BAFTA nominated Bohemian Rhapsody, Mary Queen of Scots, Stan & Ollie and Vice and BFCA nominated Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, Mary Queen of Scots, Suspiria and Vice. All worth knowing if you’re trying to guess which three will end up being nominated. This is the final piece of that puzzle, because it’s all the help we’re gonna get.
Here are your 2018 Makeup & Hairstylist Guild nominees: (more…)
Okay, your final shortlist, and the one that hurts the most.
Do you know how much I loved going through all 90-some-odd Original Song eligibles each year and working my way through them? At least give me the full list before you reduce it to 15! Where’s the fun in this?!
Now I just have 15, and it’s gonna be really obvious what the major contenders are, and we’re all working off a curve, and it’s so much easier. Where’s the skill in guessing this? Man, they are fucking up, all in the name of… I don’t even know what.
There were 90 songs eligible this year, and they deprived us of 75 of them before we had a chance to find out. (Disgusting.) I can’t even sit there and do the votes and figure things out, and have fun with it. Now it’s just boring. Thanks, Academy.
Here is your shortlist for Best Original Song: (more…)