Posts tagged “Oscar Nominations

And the Nominees Are: Analyzing the 92nd Academy Award Nominations

Okay, so Oscar nominations are out. The moment we’ve all been waiting for. I posted the list earlier, but by itself and without comment, because I woke up at 5:30 and typed the nominations As they were spoken. This is all from the time between then and now, as I’ve thought about it all and could talk somewhat coherently about it all.

Somehow I thought they started reading the nominations at 5:30. You know, like it said. So I woke up and saw Issa Rae and John Cho had already finished half the nominees. So I went back, hurriedly typed out twelve categories and caught it just as they started round two. At least I didn’t sleep totally through them, which has happened before.

Anyway, the thing I always say now is — we’ve just crossed that Autosave zone. There’s no going back now. No more talk about what can or will be nominated — this is the list. This is what we have now and in perpetuity. We get our ‘shouldn’t have been nominated’ stuff out now, but this is what we got. Now all that matters is what’s going to win. And that’s what we’ll be talking about for the next 24 days. Because literally I have to start category breakdowns TOMORROW due to the truncated schedule. We’re gonna go 24 days from tomorrow through all the categories and that takes us to two days BEFORE the Oscars. That’s how short this time period is.

But anyway, let’s see how it all went down. What the surprises were, where the snubs came, what this means for picking the winners. All that good stuff.

Here are your 92nd Academy Award nominations: (more…)


And the Nominees Are… (2019)

Best Picture

1917

Ford v Ferrari

The Irishman

Jojo Rabbit

Joker

Little Women

Marriage Story

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

 

Best Director

Bong Joon Ho, Parasite

Sam Mandes, 1917

Todd Phillips, Joker

Martin Scorsese, The Irishman

Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (more…)


Oscars 2019: The B+ Nominations Ballot

I get so excited for this article, but it feels like we’re just rushing right into it this year. Which is because it’s coming about a week earlier this year than it usually does, pushed up due to the fact that the Oscars are three weeks early this year. It doesn’t matter. I’m still gonna go all out and blather on forever. Because it’s what I do. This article only comes second to the actual Oscar night article in terms of how all out I go in talking about stuff that only matters to me and just about no one else.

Tomorrow morning, at 5:30am PST, they will announce the Oscar nominees. There will be anywhere from 120 and 125 nominees, owing to the sliding scale for Best Picture. There will be 120 for sure, and there can be up to 125. If previous years hold, expect either 123 or 124. I’m gonna try to guess all of them correctly. Because that’s what I do. Typically, if I can get to 90, I’m happy. If I can hit 75% or more, I’m thrilled. The goal is to, one of these years, get to 80%. But that’s all hypothetical. I’m really just here to guess shit and talk about Oscars. The rest is just personal goals to make it more interesting for myself.

The tens of you who read this site should know by now that I’m not just gonna give you the same shit everyone gives you. Most people just give you a list and don’t explain themselves or they guess based on what’s gonna get them clicks. You know I don’t do the latter ever and I refuse to give you the former. I’m gonna give you way more information than you could ever possibly need. My goal is to do well enough for you to be able to do better than me. I’m not just telling you, I’m showing you the thought process so you can hopefully find some creases that I don’t see (or refuse to acknowledge because of whatever shred of pride there is left in these cockles). It’s not about how well I do. It’s about empowering you to do better. (more…)


And the Nominees Are: Analyzing the 91st Academy Award Nominations

The Oscar nominees were announced this morning. I posted the nominees, but without comment. Now’s the time when we actually see how it all went and what it all means.

What I say every year about this day is — there’s no more “what if” or “could be.” This is it. This is what we have. These are the Oscar nominees. All that is done. Now the reality is figuring out what’s gonna win.

But before that, let’s analyze it all. See what surprised, see what the totals are, and, selfishly, see how well I guessed all the nominees. Why else?

Here are your 91st Academy Award nominations: (more…)


And the Nominees Are… (2018)

Here are your 91st Academy Award nominations:

Best Picture

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

A Star Is Born

Vice (more…)


Oscars 2018: The B+ Nominations Ballot

If you were to list my three favorite articles to write each year, it would be — 3) Top Ten List, 2) Nominations Ballot, 1) Oscar picks article. I love this day. I love it so much.

And, in a way, while I do enjoy writing up the Oscar picks article slightly more than writing up this one, this article means more to me. I much prefer doing better here than on Oscar night. There are gonna be about 120 nominees announced tomorrow. If I can guess 90 of them, I’m happy. And if I can guess 90 of them and be right there on the alternates, I’m even happier. Forget going 20/24 on Oscar night. This is where it’s at. This is what takes skill.

And yes, this is going to be an article where I attempt to guess every single Oscar nominee. I’ve done it every year since I started this site, and I’ve always been above 2/3. The worst I did was 68% in my first year. Since then I’ve been above 70. Last year was 74.5% and my personal best was 78.5%. My next goal is to get either above 80% or over 100 total correct, whichever comes first.

I also, unlike a lot of the other sites (I know, because I used to read them before I realized I could make the same mistakes on my own), won’t just give you a list. I will talk you through my entire thought process. I’ll show you how I get to my decisions. The idea being it will give you all the information you need to do this too, should you want to. And hopefully you can all go forth and pick better than I can and make me proud. (I’m like a middle school teacher, but for useless stuff.) (more…)


And the Nominees Are: Analyzing the 90th Academy Awards Nominations

Oscar nominees were announced this morning. Let’s see what it all means.

What I love about this day is that we’re no longer guessing what can or will be. Now we’re left with what is, and this is the reality going forward. So now it’s a matter of figuring out what’ll win.

But, before we move onto that, let’s look at what happened and try to figure out why it happened. And, more importantly, how I did in guessing it. Because I am nothing if not narcissistic.

Here are the 90th Academy Award nominations: (more…)


And the Nominees Are… (2017)

The Oscar nominations were just announced. I’ll write them up later, but here they are:

Best Picture

Call Me by Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Get Out

Lady Bird

Phantom Thread

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (more…)


Oscars 2017: The B+ Nominations Ballot

This is the epitome of what I do. You’d think it would be the analysis of Oscar night. But by that point, so much of it feels anticlimactic. Then again, I guess you could say that about this year, where the damn PGA already announced a winner before nominations! (Though perhaps that made things even more interesting. We’ll see.)

I think I might be the only person on the internet who tries to straight up guess every single Oscar nominee. Not just the way other places do it, a simple list. I talk my way through the entire thing. History, precursors. You know why I make every decision I make. And I grade myself, percentages and all. Oscar nominations are bright and early tomorrow morning, and right now, we’re gonna run through all 24 categories and I’m gonna see if I can guess every one of them. I’m confident that I’m the only person who does it with this much detail because no one else is stupid enough to even bother doing it.

Every year, there are about 120 nominees. The maximum we can have is 123. Generally it’s 121 or 122, depending on how many Best Picture nominees there are (typically 8 or 9). For most people, you’d think correctly guessing 2/3 of them would be a really solid average. Me, I feel like I’m doing badly if I drop below 70%. I hit 77% and 78.5% the past two years, which was about 95 of the total 122 nominees. The worst I’ve done on this site is 68%, and that was the first year I did it. Every other year was 71% or above. No idea how I do it, and I don’t really care. It’s just fun for me. I don’t mind if I fail horribly (because I’m expecting to), but I am hoping to hit 80% one of these years. Or at least get the annual average up to 75%. Both of those things would be amazing. (more…)


And the Nominees Are: Analyzing the 89th Academy Awards Nominations

Now that we have our Oscar nominations, we can stop dealing in one form of guesswork, and engage in another.

But before we do that, let’s take a minute to react about what is or isn’t nominated this year, what decisions they made that will change how I go about this in the future, what surprises the shit out of me, and just what we think about this list, because this is the only time I really get to sit here and do this. Because from here on out, it’s all about figuring out who from these lists will win, since these are the nominees, and nothing will change that.

Except a good disqualification and scandal. And that’s always fun. (more…)


And the Nominees Are… (2016)

It’s not yet 6am in Los Angeles, and the Oscar nominations are announced.

As I do, I get up and type the list up as they say it. I could wait and copy/paste it, but I do not. Because I am stupid.

So here are your 89th Academy Award Nominations: (more…)


Oscars 2016: What I Think Will Be Nominated

This is the article I build toward every year. You’d think it was the Top Ten list, or Oscar night picks. Nope. This is the one I look forward to most. Because I think I might be the only person that straight up tries to pick all the Oscar nominees, from Best Picture on down to Best Live-Action Short.

Typically each year there are about 120 nominees. Give or take one or two. The fluctuation on the Best Picture list is what decides what the final number is going to be. The max we can have is 123. Generally we have either 121 or 122. I try to get 2/3 of them right, but I feel good if I hit around 70%. Which is around 85. Last year I got 95, which was 78.5%. I have no illusions about getting anywhere near that number again. I tend to hit low 70s — which is 85/86. That I’d feel happy with. 75% as an average would be amazing. If I can crack 80%, I’d be ecstatic.

The way I do this is break down, category by category, go over all the precursors and all the little details that most people overlook/all the stuff I’ve learned from experience, and I tell you why I think everything I pick will be nominated.

I feel very confident in saying that no one gives you as in depth coverage on this as I do. Which is to stay that no one is stupid enough to pick 123 potential nominations and grade themselves on how they do. (more…)


And the Nominees Are: Analyzing the 88th Academy Award Nominations

We have our Oscar nominees. Let’s analyze them.

If you notice, not really once during this whole thing have I really got into what’s going to win and all that. Which is because, to me, the season is split into two halves… what’s gonna be nominated, and what’s going to win. I’m not gonna say what’s gonna win until I know what’s nominated. And I guess both. So now, we’re just hitting halftime, and starting tomorrow, it’s all second half.

But before we close the book on the first half and get started on the second, let’s see what got nominated, if we all saw it coming, talk about what surprised us, what seemed like a weird choice, and then completely forget about it. After this, I don’t care about what’s not here (I might mention it, but from here on out it’s irrelevant to the proceedings), it’s only about the categories and nothing else.

That said, let’s analyze the 2014 Oscar nominations: (more…)


And the Nominees Are… The 88th Academy Award Nominations

It’s not yet 6am in Los Angeles, and the Oscar nominations are announced.

Only idiots like me are awake right now. I could have waited and seen the entire list posted once they were done, but I didn’t. I got up, and I sat out and typed up this entire list as they said it. Because that’s what I do.

The Oscars are my thing. I can’t explain it. This is what I’m willing to get up at 5 am for. I can’t explain it. Ask any girl I’ve ever dated. Actually, don’t do that. There are a few things I’ll get up at 5 am for.

Anyway, here are your 2015 Oscar nominations: (more…)


Oscars 2015: What I Think Will Be Nominated

Tomorrow morning the nominees for the 88th Academy Awards will be announced. Today, I’m going to guess what those nominations will be. Every single one of them.

This might be my favorite article that I write every year. It’s more fun than trying to pick the winners, trying to guess all 120-something nominees.

I’ll of course provide as much explanation and information as I can, should you want to be as crazy as I am and attempt to guess as well. Mostly this is me talking my way through my guesses (and showing you how insanely deep I’m into all this Oscar shit).

Without further ado, here is what I think is going to be nominated tomorrow: (more…)


And the Nominees Are: Analyzing the 87th Academy Awards Nominations

Okay. So we have our nominations, so now let’s analyze them, see how I did, and see what it all means.

If you notice, not really once during this whole thing have I really got into what’s going to win and all that. Which is because, to me, the season is split into two halves… what’s gonna be nominated, and what’s going to win. I’m not gonna say what’s gonna win until I know what’s nominated. And I guess both. So now, we’re just hitting halftime, and starting tomorrow, it’s all second half.

But before we close the book on the first half and get started on the second, let’s see what got nominated, if we all saw it coming, talk about what surprised us, what seemed like a weird choice, and then completely forget about it. After this, I don’t care about what’s not here (I might mention it, but from here on out it’s irrelevant to the proceedings), it’s only about the categories and nothing else.

That said, let’s analyze the 2014 Oscar nominations: (more…)


And the Nominees Are… (2014)

It’s now just before 6 am Los Angeles time, and the Oscar nominations have just announced.

Only idiots like me are awake right now. I could have waited and just saw the entire list posted once they were done, but I didn’t. I got up, and I sat out and typed up this entire list as they said it. Because that’s what I do.

The Oscars are my thing. I can’t explain it. This is what I’m willing to get up at 5 am for. I can’t explain it. Ask any girl I’ve ever dated. Actually, don’t do that. There are a few things I’ll get up at 5 am for.

Anyway, here are your 2014 Oscar nominations: (more…)


Oscars 2014: What I Think Will Be Nominated

Tomorrow, the nominees for the 87th Academy Awards will be announced.

Today, I’m going to guess what those nominees will be. All of them. This is the best part for me. Guessing, and seeing how close I can get. Guessing the nominees is actually more fun than guessing the winners. Because the choices are a lot smaller and the odds are a lot greater with the winners. Here, the possibilities are actually completely endless.

I also need to make this part clear every year — I’ve stopped reading any other Oscar blog or whatever place that tracks all this stuff. I base this purely on the guilds and critics groups who have already announced their nominations, as well as on the general trends throughout history and the previous few years, and just my general instinct on things, since I’ve been doing this for a while now and have the general hang of it.

Here are my guesses as to what’s going to be nominated tomorrow: (more…)


And the Nominees Are: Analyzing the 86th Academy Awards Nominations

The nominees have been announced and the speculation is over. The brackets are formed and the categories are set. Now we can, for the last time, talk about what were and are horrible choices for nominees, and then settle into what’s going to win.

I have to say, this wasn’t a particularly eventful morning. You know things went mostly according to expectation when the biggest shock is a Best Editing nominee. Everything else was pretty much in line with expectations or was something we all thought was within the realm of possibility.

That said — I’m not unhappy with the nominations. I think, for the most part, they got it right. Which is something I’m happy to have been able to say over the past few years.

So, that said, let’s analyze the 86th Academy Award nominations: (more…)


And the Nominees Are… (2013)

Wake up, bitches, it’s Oscar time.

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences have just announced the nominees for the 86th Academy Awards.

I’ll analyze all of this later on today, but for now, here are the nominations:

Best Picture

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Her

Nebraska

Philomena

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street (more…)


Oscars 2013: What I Think Will Be Nominated

Tomorrow, we’ll know the nominees for the 86th Academy Awards.

Today, I’m going to guess what those nominees will be. This is my favorite part. Even more so than who’s going to win. Because who’s going to win is usually set. You can narrow it down to two choices, most of the time. Here, everything’s wide open. There can be loads of surprises. This is where you get to mold the clay into all the art projects, and then the Oscars are just awarding first prize. This is way more fun to guess. It’s like trying to guess what the NFL schedule is going to be before it’s announced, and before we all try to pick who’s going to win the games. It’s so much fun.

This year especially, I’m way out of touch with stuff. I didn’t even see any of the movies until September. I watched everything in the span of four months. So I’m mostly going on instinct and the guilds. And just sheer, “What the hell?” It should be fun.

The last thing to note — yesterday, I picked what I’d nominate. Today, I’m purely going by what I think is going to happen. I feel like this must be made clear every year, because there are a lot of stupid people on the internet who just don’t like to read things and like to come to conclusions and say stupid things without maybe seeing if they’re wrong first.

So here are my guesses as to what I think will be nominated tomorrow morning: (more…)


And the Nominees Are… (2012)

Wake that ass up this mornin’. It’s Oscar time, bitches.

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences have just announced the nominees for the 85th Academy Awards.

I’ll be analyzing all the nominees and stuff later. Right now, it’s just about the nominations. It’s 6 am in the morning. I’m going the fuck back to sleep, and I’ll deal with what it all means later.

So here they are, your nominees for the 85th Academy Awards: (more…)


Oscars 2012: What I Think Will Be Nominated

The nominations for the 85th Academy Awards will be announced tomorrow.

This Oscar season has been one of two things — very abrupt or very exciting. Possibly both. Maybe it’s because I stayed out of listening to anything Oscar-related this year and am going almost entirely on my gut and experience, but this feels like going 0-60 in three seconds. I haven’t had time to settle in and get warmed up yet, and all of a sudden the Oscar nominations are upon us.

The Oscar nominations are coming out real early this year, probably to shake things up in the race, which a lot of people have felt was boring in recent years, because the awards season went on for so long that we knew exactly who was gonna win even before the ceremony. Really all they did was stop having the ceremony in March (which was stupid to begin with) and pushed the Oscar nominations up a week (which caused some confusion in this town, given that most people were still on vacation around the time nominations ballots were due, and because they’re switching over to almost completely online voting, which raised some issues with the older section of the Academy (most of them), who have no fucking idea how to use that series of tubes that is the internet to vote). I guess two weeks makes all the difference.

I’ll give them one thing — this year, we don’t really know anything yet. I have a good idea about what’ll be nominated, but even so, you can’t be too sure about certain things. At this point, there is no clear frontrunner for Best Picture. And since they’re announcing the nominees so early, not all of the awards shows are gonna sync up, leaving an air of mystery to the whole thing. That said, I’m sure by Oscar night, we’ll have a damn good idea what’s going to win, as we always do. But for now, it’s kind of exciting, even though I feel like they could have waited a week and split the difference. (more…)