The Motion Picture Sound Editors announced their winners last night. Here are the winner:
Dialogue + ADR: War for the Planet of the Apes
Effects + Foley: Blade Runner 2049
Musical: The Greatest Showman
Interesting that Dunkirk wins for Music and now for Effects + Foley. And that Baby Driver wins nothing. This year is starting to sound a lot like last year, where either Dunkirk, the war film, wins both Sound categories, or there’s a split between it and Blade Runner or it and Baby Driver or some combination of the three. I don’t expect Star Wars to win either one, and Shape of Water… not sure it wins the Sound categories. CAS announces on Saturday. We’ll have a better handle on the Sound categories then.
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The BAFTA Awards were just announced. This is the last major awards show before the Oscars, and typically what you get when they announce is a sense of “okay, this is what’s locked, and this is what’s gonna be open ended on Oscar night.” A few guilds still have to announce, but by and large, we have a sense of the majority of the categories at this moment.
We still have MPSE tonight, which we don’t necessarily need, CDG on Tuesday, which we don’t need at all, and CAS next weekend, which is helpful but I think we have a good sense of that category too.
I don’t have much else, so let’s just get into who won and what it means: (more…)
The American Society of Cinematographers announced their awards tonight. Roger Deakins won it for Blade Runner 2049.
Before we get all excited about how this makes him a favorite for the Oscar, know that this is his fourth ASC win (after Shawshank, The Man Who Wasn’t There and Skyfall), and he has exactly zero Oscar wins to show for it. So let’s not jump the gun on this one just yet. I’ve had my heart broken many times on the Deakins train, and I’m not about to let my hopes get dashed yet again without having all the facts.
Him winning is a big step in the right direction, however, ASC is not scripture when it comes to Oscar winners. Just last year, ASC gave their award to Lion, when it was La La Land that ultimately won the Oscar. ASC is only 6 out of the past 10 years and 9 of the past 20. So it’s not over yet. BAFTA announces tomorrow, and that’ll be a big help if he wins that on top of this and the BFCA award he’s already won.
Right now, I count him, Hoyte van Hoytema for Dunkirk and Dan Lautsen for Shape of Water as the three favorites to win. (Mudbound has almost no shot, unfortunately, as does Darkest Hour.) So if BAFTA goes Deakins’ way too, I’ll be real interested to see how this one turns out on Oscar night.
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The WGA Awards were handed out tonight.
The winners were Get Out for Original Screenplay and Call Me By Your Name for Adapted Screenplay. The latter was not surprising in the least, and the former is only interesting because it beat Lady Bird. Three Billboards, the presumptive favorite to win the Oscar (at least, until it loses BAFTA next week), was ineligible here. So really it was gonna come down to which won, Get Out or Lady Bird. So here we are.
Crazy to me that The Shape of Water is nowhere in this Screenplay conversation, despite being the presumptive favorite for Best Picture. Then again, if Three Billboards really is the movie that’s gonna win the whole thing, it winning Screenplay makes more sense. But if it is The Shape of Water, you do realize that the Best Picture winner does win Screenplay like 2/3 of the time, right? It’s crazy that it doesn’t even feel like a contender at this point.
Anyway, more categories tomorrow. (And by the way, I’m also 17,000 words into my Oscar picks article, due to go up in about three weeks. Haven’t even started making choices yet. the 17,000 words is just set up. So get ready for that, eventually.)
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The DGA announced their winner last night. As a reminder, the nominees were:
Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
And the winner… was Guillermo Del Toro.
The DGA has matched the Oscar winner all but seven times, ever (and three of those times, the DGA winner wasn’t even nominated). So, at this very moment, there is a 90-94% chance that Guillermo Del Toro will win Best Director at the Oscars. He’s won all the precursors so far, and if he wins the BAFTA, I think it’s completely 100% locked. Look at it — four of these five are up for the Oscar. Paul Thomas Anderson is on the final list over Martin McDonagh, but otherwise they’re the same. BAFTA didn’t spark to Lady Bird or Get Out the way the other groups have, so unless Christopher Nolan is gonna try to pull a fast one (which seems unlikely), I think Guillermo has it in the bag.
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The Annie Awards were last night. To spare you dozens of categories, Coco won everything. Not that we’re remotely surprised at that.
Coco won Best Feature, Best Directing, Best Writing, Best Production Design, Best Character Animation, Best Character Design, Best Music, Best Animated Effects, Best Editing and Best Storyboarding. Which, if you’re keeping track, is everything it could have possibly won for. Meanwhile, The Breadwinner won for Best Independent Feature, Revolting Rhymes won for Best Animated Special Production, and Dear Basketball won for Best Animated Short Subject, if you think that means anything. War for the Planet of the Apes also won two awards for Character Animation and Design.
So there. Pretty much what we knew — Coco has Animated Feature in the bag.
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They announced the Art Directors Guild awards last night. So we’ll have a little bit of insight into Best Production Design.
As a reminder, the BFCA Award went to The Shape of Water. The Oscar category is Beauty and the Beast, Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour Dunkirk and The Shape of Water and BAFTA has the same exact category So this should really be enlightening for how Production Design is likely to go. All of them were nominated at ADG.
The Period winner was The Shape of Water.
The Fantasy winner was Blade Runner 2049.
The Contemporary winner was Logan.
They also included an Animated category, which Coco of course won.
With two wins already and a likely BAFTA win coming, this seems to be The Shape of Water’s category to lose. War movies never get nominated at the Oscars, let alone win, so I doubt Dunkirk can jump up and win. Darkest Hour needs a BAFTA win to feel like its got any chance. Beauty and the Beast, I guess, could possibly win, but that feels like a longshot without any sort of real support. Blade Runner could win the BAFTA and also make a play for it, but with 13 nominations, Shape of Water certainly seems like a favorite. So we’ll see if anything changes between now and BAFTA.
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