Well, folks, the PGA Awards were tonight.
As we all should know, they’re a pretty good prognosticator for picking the Oscars. The PGA Awards began in 1989, making this the 26th time they’ve given out the award. In the previous 25 times, only 7 times did the PGA winner differ from the Best Picture winner.
They were: 1992. The Crying Game wins the PGA and Unforgiven wins the Oscar. 1995. Apollo 13 wins the PGA and Braveheart wins the Oscar. 1998. Saving Private Ryan wins the PGA and Shakespeare in Love wins the Oscar. 2001. Moulin Rouge wins the PGA and A Beautiful Mind wins the Oscar. 2004. The Aviator wins the PGA and Million Dollar Baby wins the Oscar. 2005. Brokeback Mountain wins the PGA and Crash wins the Oscar. 2006. Little Miss Sunshine wins the PGA and The Departed wins the Oscar. Meaning there’s a 72% chance the winner will win Best Picture, based on the history. The PGA also has a seven year streak going where they’ve gotten it right (including the tie last year, which was unprecedented).
The other reason it’s a big precursor is that it shares the type of voting system the Academy does. Which means that it’s based on the most people liking a film rather than just voting for it #1. It’s a big deal, and actually can tell you which film is most likely to win.
And folks… the film that won the PGA Award this year… was Birdman. (more…)
Every January, I preview all the films that are scheduled to come out for that year. Typically, I end up around 80%, since there are always a few that I don’t track, for whatever reason. The point of why I do this has been lost, and now I do it because that’s just what I do. It’s fun, and I enjoy it.
Mainly the idea is to see how accurately I can guess my reaction to movies up to a year in advance. And it gives me a gauge to see which films ended up surprising me for better and for worse.
Originally, I just went through the release calendar and listed about 30 other movies that didn’t have dates. Last year, I had about 200 without dates that I tracked. Now, we’re looking at around 250, on top of the articles currently set for specific months.
How I do this is, I start by going over the films currently scheduled for January through June, then take a ten day break in between to go over the Oscar nominations and Golden Globes, and then finish with July through December. After that, I go over the films currently without release dates, and finish with the holdovers from last year that I’m continuing to track. We have it down to a science here. (more…)