The PGA Awards were handed out tonight. 1917 won Best Picture.
That’s two precursors for it now, after winning the Globe. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood won BFCA and the other Globe. Interesting those are the two nominees that weren’t nominated for Editing at the Oscars (though one of them by design). I guess we’ll see where BAFTA goes (though at this point, it’s almost literally the difference between Europe and Hollywood). Of note is that the PGA, which used to be automatic and is seen as close to automatic, is 21/30 all-time (70%) and are 8/10 the past decade, missing only 2015 and 2016. So that’s a pretty big result. That about cuts the Best Picture race to three total films.
Meanwhile, Toy Story 4 won for Best Animated Feature and Apollo 11 won for Best Documentary. Which fits with every other result we’ve had thus far. Apollo 11 got left off (unsurprisingly), and the PGA Animated winner has not won the Oscar only four times ever, with two of them (Tintin and Lego Movie) not being nominated at the Oscars, one being Cars losing to Happy Feet and the other being Wreck-It Ralph losing to Brave. Which is essentially 10/12, one being a lesser Pixar losing to a runaway phenomenon hit and the other being a boring old Pixar choice. Given how little’s in the category and how little alternative there is to Pixar in there when voters look at that ballot, Toy Story should run away with that one.
SAG Awards are tomorrow night. So we should have (BAFTA pending) a lot of big stuff set by Monday morning.
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The Eddie Awards were handed out last night. Here are the winners:
Comedy: Jojo Rabbit
Animated: Toy Story 4
Documentary: Apollo 11
Nothing particularly surprising. Parasite winning Dramatic made the most sense for them. Marriage Story was never gonna win, Joker would have been a big surprise, for everyone including the Joker team. The Irishman would have made some sense, because it’s Thelma, but I haven’t seen real love for that movie out there to this point. Ford v Ferrari would have made sense as a pure ‘editing’ movie, but Parasite is the consensus favorite film out there by a lot of people and feels like it can easily win the Editing category even without winning Picture. 1917 wasn’t nominated because there’s no editing, so if they’re all in on that, then this didn’t matter, did it? And then in Comedy, Jojo was the de facto winner the minute Once Upon a Time in Hollywood wasn’t nominated. If the guild didn’t nominate it, why would they give it their big award? And Jojo’s the only other nominated film in the category. Then, Toy Story in Animated made total sense. It’s gonna win that category. And Apollo 11 is the consensus best documentary of the year (and they didn’t even nominate it, so that’s how you know it’s good), so that’s no surprise either.
It’ll be real interesting to see what BAFTA does with editing, especially given Parasite not being nominated there. This might actually be one of the few categories of the night we actually have to think about. Which is sure setting up for a 2011 scenario, isn’t it?
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Here’s how this works: every day leading up to the Oscars, I break down each of the 24 categories. The goal is to both familiarize everyone with the category itself (how it works, what its history is and how you go about figuring out what’s gonna win) while also making it easier to reference when I write my giant article with picks and everything. A lot of the leg work is already here. But really, the goal is to see if there’s anything to look for leading into Oscar night that could be a shortcut to me picking the category.
What we do is — I give you all the winners of the category throughout history, go over all the recent trends if there are any, discuss the precursors and whether or not they matter, and then we talk about this year’s category and how we got to it, and then just look at where we are and rank the nominees in terms of their likelihood of winning (at the current moment in time. Of course, things can and will change going into the ceremony). It’s all pretty simple. I’ve done this every year. Everyone should know the drill.
Today is Best Live Action Short, aka the category where you go refill the chips bowl because no one knows or cares about any of the nominees. (more…)
Pic of the Day: “What puzzles me is why people seem to get so much pleasure out of hurting each other. Why don’t they try liking each other once in a while?”