The Visual Effect Society handed out their awards tonight. As a reminder, your Oscar category is:
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
So really, those are the only five we’re paying attention to here.
VES hands out 11 film awards, 4 animated. So it’s seven major categories we’re looking at. For Animated, Missing Link won Best Animated Effects and Best Animated Character, while Toy Story 4 won Best Created Environment for the Antiques Shop and Frozen II won for Best Effects Simulations, for, I guess, the snow and shit. All of that makes total sense to me.
As for the film awards, The Lion King won Best Effects, Best Virtual Cinematography and Best Created Environment. Considering the entire film is created and the creation of the effects was done in this sort of VR space, I’m not surprised it won any of those three awards. Meanwhile, The Irishman won for Supporting Effects and Composting, while Alita: Battle Angel won for Animated Character and Rise of Skywalker won for Effect Simulations. That means 3/5 of the category won an award, with 1917 and Endgame the films that won nothing. 1917 was only nominated for Supporting Effects, so once Irishman won that, it was gonna go home empty-handed. Endgame was nominated in three categories and lost them all.
I will say, I appreciate that all the awards basically went to the films that made the most sense. It’s rare that you feel like people vote for what the best choice is rather than with some sort of agenda.
BAFTA is on Sunday, and we’ll learn a lot based on what wins there (since BFCA already gave out their award to Endgame and I’ve already discounted that as nonsense, which was just backed up by VES), but I’m suspecting that the Oscar winner is probably gonna be The Irishman, with Lion King a contender (but probably overmatched in the ‘class’ game) and 1917 a potential upset pick. Mostly I wanna see if BAFTA goes for 1917. If they do, that’ll make things REALLY interesting. But we know how this goes — Best Picture nominees usually outmuscle everything else in the category. You kinda forget that part, since 2015 was the last time Best Picture nominees were nominated and Ex Machina blew that whole thing up. But before that, Best Picture nominees were automatic in the category (and even since, the ‘classier’ films tended to win — Blade Runner, First Man). So I’m thinking we stick to that, but hey, maybe if BAFTA goes Lion King… maybe not. We’ll see.
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Here’s how this works: every day leading up to the Oscars, I break down each of the 24 categories. The goal is to both familiarize everyone with the category itself (how it works, what its history is and how you go about figuring out what’s gonna win) while also making it easier to reference when I write my giant article with picks and everything. A lot of the leg work is already here. But really, the goal is to see if there’s anything to look for leading into Oscar night that could be a shortcut to me picking the category.
What we do is — I give you all the winners of the category throughout history, go over all the recent trends if there are any, discuss the precursors and whether or not they matter, and then we talk about this year’s category and how we got to it, and then just look at where we are and rank the nominees in terms of their likelihood of winning (at the current moment in time. Of course, things can and will change going into the ceremony). It’s all pretty simple. I’ve done this every year. Everyone should know the drill.
Today is Best Documentary Feature. The most broken branch in the Academy. Yet again, the best and most critically lauded documentary of the year has been left off the list, leaving yet another category that continues to be meaningless. Great job, guys. (more…)
Pic of the Day: “I can get you out of Kenya. it’s one of the few things we still do well. Drop it now, and it’s over. I’ll make sure word gets to the right people. Go home… and live.” “But I don’t have a home, Tim. Tessa was my home.” (15th Anniversary)