Oscars 2025: The B+ Nominations Ballot

’bout that time again. Gonna do the thing.

It tickles me to no end that the Academy looks to be doubling down on non-mainstream choices at the top. They did all this stuff to try to expand the field to get higher profile stuff in to placate those looking to watch the show for entertainment value and the voters are simply putting in more foreign films instead because the American studio system is committed to putting out garbage most of the time. So now there’s even less for the people who only watch a couple of movies a year and nothing out of the realm of the conventional. I love it. I love it the way Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw loves Black girls.

This also means that the deliberate expansion of the voting body the Academy began however many years ago has bore fruit in that people are legitimately picking the movies they liked best and aren’t just falling in line with what studio PR teams tell them are the best (and also reflects that a younger overall demographic is going to have broader tastes than the old guard). Some still will still always get through, but the notion that it is highly likely we’ll have a Best Picture list with multiple foreign nominees on it this year and not Avatar or Wicked absolutely thrills me.

Anyway, time to pick nominees.

(NOTE: I went in afterward and just added who got nominated for BAFTA, ACE and WGA so I could look at them as a whole. Didn’t change anything else. Those nominations are bolded to show I added them after. I just wanted to see if I’d have changed my mind had I known about any of them. And honestly, looking at BAFTA — probably just two could have swayed me. Marty Supreme in Costumes and Mr. Nobody Against Putin in Documentary. That’s it. The only other notable thing I see is that the Kate Hudson nomination would have scared me shitless. But I’d still have not guessed her out of stubbornness and I’d have said, “There’s no fucking way. I’m gonna let them just do it.” Maybe the Watson nomination could have swayed me, but I doubt it. Still would’ve been wrong. Lindo wasn’t there at all. So no change there. I don’t know if Bugonia in Score would’ve swayed me. Doubt it. One Battle in Production Design almost certainly wouldn’t have. Most of their nominations only would have convinced me of what I already thought. So yeah, okay then. WGA wouldn’t have done anything except made me guess Weapons, which would have been wrong. And ACE probably wouldn’t have changed anything for me either, since I generally let Picture status override precursors in some situations.)

Best Picture.

I’ll start by mentioning the usual trap people fall in to (and this’ll be applicable when we talk about SAG): just because the PGA nominated it does not mean it’s gonna get nominated.

Since Picture expanded in 2009 (so 16 years), while the PGA has matched 127/146 nominees, they’ve only matched the full Picture list 4 times. And that includes years where they nominated 10 films to the Academy’s 8 or 9. They’ve never matched less than 7 (and a lot of those 7s are from 8-9 years. I’m sure a set list of 10 would’ve bumped that up), so they’ll get you most of the way there, but it’s important to note how rarely they give you everything. Since we’ve returned to a set list of 10 (2021), the PGA has been 8/10, 7/10, 10/10 and 8/10. Given the fact that there’s a pretty consensus list this year, I’ve gotta imagine most people will do well here. But, I will caution again — do not use the PGA as scripture. To borrow a line — they’re more like guidelines.

Also something to note — only 5 films since 2009 were nominated without a single precursor (Blind Side, Amour, Phantom Thread, Drive My Car, I’m Still Here). It’s worth noting that all 5 managed either (or both) an acting nomination or a Director nomination. Do with that what you will.

Precursors:

One Battle After Another – PGA, BAFTA, SAG, CCA*, Globes*, NBR*, AFI
Frankenstein – PGA, BAFTA Longlist, SAG, CCA, Globes, NBR, AFI
Marty Supreme – PGA, BAFTA, SAG, CCA, Globes, NBR, AFI
Sinners – PGA, BAFTA, SAG, CCA, Globes, NBR, AFI
Hamnet – PGA, BAFTA, SAG, CCA, Globes*, AFI
Bugonia – PGA, BAFTA Longlist, CCA, Globes, AFI
Sentimental Value – PGA, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
Train Dreams – PGA, CCA, NBR, AFI
Wicked: For Good – CCA, NBR, AFI
Jay Kelly – CCA, NBR, AFI
F1 – PGA, NBR
Avatar: Fire and Ash – NBR, AFI
Weapons – PGA
It Was Just an Accident – CCA
No Other Choice – Globes
Nouvelle Vague – Globes
The Secret Agent – Globes
Blue Moon – Globes
The Ballad of Wallis Island – BAFTA Longlist
I Swear – BAFTA Longlist
Nuremberg – BAFTA Longlist
Rental Family – NBR
Wake Up Dead Man – NBR

We’re not gonna get BAFTA nominees for a few days, so this is all we have to work with.

Just glancing at the list above, you can immediately spot the 7 contenders that feel like locks: One Battle After Another, Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Hamnet, Bugonia, Sentimental Value. If it weren’t a set list of 10, I’d have some doubts about Bugonia, but given the lack of true variety at the top, you gotta feel confident giving it one of those ten spots. (Though I will also say, if something does get left off, that’s the one I’m gonna expect to see. Or, in this case, not see.) But those seven are your baseline. I’m also gonna personally add Train Dreams in as well. It’ll miss BAFTA, but it has the PGA, hit enough shortlists and other category guilds (plus Indie Spirit) to make me think there’s support there to get it nominated. I’d rather miss with it on my list than see it get on without guessing it. Which puts me where I usually am, with 8 set choices and 2 to figure out.

Next, let’s pare down the list of what’s remaining, eliminate the stuff that is clearly never gonna be nominated. Starting with the one that only hit the BAFTA longlist (Ballad of Wallis Island, I Swear, Nuremberg) and the ones that only got NBR (Rental Family, Wake Up Dead Man). I don’t think I need to explain why they’re all bad bets. I’m also gonna pull off Nouvelle Vague and Blue Moon. While I’d love to see either (or both) get on, I just can’t take only having a Musical/Comedy Globes nomination as a serious sign of support. Only one film’s been nominated with just that since 2009, and it was Triangle of Sadness. These don’t have that kind of support. The final spots tend to go to films with real love out there (last year’s two were Nickel Boys and I’m Still Here).

That leaves me with 8 films that theoretically stand a chance. I don’t even see anything without a precursor that I’d consider adding. All the stuff (foreign) I’d look at is here already.

Let’s take them alphabetically:

Avatar: Fire and Ash — it only managed NBR and AFI (so zero actual precursors), and has been pretty invisible throughout the season outside of the obvious tech categories. I don’t see any argument for this past the last one being nominated and that the old guard will vote for it out of habit. That’s not what recent Picture lists have been. This feels incredibly unlikely, and I think we’d all be moderately surprised if it somehow were nominated.
F1 — it only has the PGA (NBR is not a precursor, just an award). Not promising, especially when nearly every single year there’s a mainstream PGA nominee like this that gets left off. The only films that’ve ever pulled off a ‘PGA only’ nomination are District 9, American Sniper and Judas and the Black Messiah. Only one this past decade, and one that had a bunch of ancillary nominations coming to it. This just doesn’t feel like a wise choice. Picking it is to bank on the ‘old guard’ coming through, which is a depreciating argument with each successive year. This is the main reason I said “the PGA is not scripture.” Because this feels like an obvious red herring/PGA castoff.
It Was Just an Accident — On one hand, CCA only. On the other hand, it managed a CCA nomination. The critics put a foreign film on their Picture list. Most foreign films don’t even get a precursor a lot of the time and you have to guess them in a vacuum. This also won NBR Foreign Language (over all the other great contenders) and is very visible. This feels firmly in contention for one of those final spots.
Jay Kelly — This started off strong, with NBR/AFI inclusions and CCA, then completely disappeared. The lack of a Globes nomination is telling. A PGA miss I could’ve overlooked. But both? And no BAFTA shortlist? This feels cooked. Plus it doesn’t appear to be getting nominated anywhere else outside of maybe Screenplay. That’s not the mold for something to get nominated in Picture. Women Talking did it, but it won Screenplay. This won’t do that. It just doesn’t feel like a legitimate contender to me.
No Other Choice — By traditional metrics, this only has a Musical/Comedy Globes nomination. But as a foreign film, that’s actually great for it. Because usually we’re talking about nothing. You gotta respect it, even though I do feel like the word on this is that it’s being overlooked. So, while I am gonna take it very seriously for those final two spots, the feel of this is that it’s less likely to make it simply because the love for this is not showing the way it is for the other foreign films out there. Which makes me feel it’s not likely to happen. You may, in fact, say they have… several other choices (I regret nothing).
The Secret Agent — Not only does this have a Globes nomination in Drama, Wagner Moura won Best Actor and it beat Sentimental Value for Foreign Language Film. You can’t get much more visible or have a much better case than that. At this point I’m just putting it on as the ninth spot, because nothing else is gonna have a better resume than this or epitomize what I’ve been saying about a film having real love out there (or fit with the notion of foreign films getting on those final spots in recent years. This is exactly what happened with I’m Still Here last year.
Weapons — If this didn’t have that PGA nomination, no one would look at this as anything more than maybe a Screenplay contender. But the PGA historically puts stuff like this on their list. Some examples of PGA nominees that weren’t nominated for Best Picture: Star Trek, The Town, Bridesmaids, Skyfall, Nightcrawler, Ex Machina, Sicario, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, Crazy Rich Asians, Knives Out, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Glass Onion, A Real Pain. Couple of different subsections of nominees there, but this absolutely fits one of those subsections (Screenplay nominee, acting nominee, darker film that doesn’t exactly fit their vibe at the top). Just saying. You gotta respect it, and I’d say there’s a chance it happens, but my history with this body tells me this is not what they usually vote for. I’m fine leaving it out.
Wicked: For Good — On pure numbers, it’s not the worst set of precursors you could have. But, like Jay Kelly, it didn’t hit the big ones and has been pretty nonexistent throughout the race. That Globes snub is loud. If the PGA miss is a red flag, what’s the Globes miss? Hard to see this as a legitimate choice after that. Then again, it’s clearly on pace for a handful of tech nods, so sneaking on the Picture list wouldn’t be totally out of the realm of possibility. But given the reception for the film, it seems like they didn’t like it/are over it.

I don’t see Avatar happening without a single precursor, so I’m gonna let that one happen. F1, I gotta adhere to my standards about the PGA. You could do it, but it’s just not something they’ve done, so I’m gonna let them break precedent there. More power to you if you wanna do it. I can’t see it. Jay Kelly, also no. I look for films with real love to make those final spots. This does not have that love.

The Secret Agent I already put on, so that leaves me four films for one spot. Two foreign, two studio. Of the foreign, I feel like It Was Just an Accident is showing more overt love than No Other Choice, and I feel like that’s the one I’d lean toward. So I’ll leave No Other Choice off and see what happens there. And between Weapons and Wicked — I feel like, with Weapons only having the PGA, and its overall profile, that tells me it’s very much in the vein of F1 in that it’s not gonna happen. I just… my gut tells me they’re not gonna do it. And I’ve done this enough that I have to trust my gut. It feels like a red herring and I’d rather just let them do it.

Which leaves me with It Was Just an Accident and Wicked. And I feel like Wicked has had more than enough opportunities to show itself as a contender that people liked. No PGA, no Globes, no BAFTA shortlist. That’s basically disdain. It would be like if something only got a four minute standing ovation in Venice. Might as well have spit in its face. So for the Academy to then somehow turn around and embrace it? Sure, maybe. It’ll get enough other nominations to justify it. But it tells me that the spot is more likely to go foreign, which means give me It Was Just an Accident. And I’ll legitimately vote that three foreign films get nominated for Best Picture in the same year. Imagine saying that any other time. You’d be looked at as insane. But I have to imagine most people parsing this who have any sort of idea what they’re doing (and aren’t just taking the PGA list for more views) are gonna come to the same (or very similar) conclusions as I have.

Best Picture

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

It Was Just an Accident

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

First Alternate: Wicked: For Good

Dark Horse: F1

Surprise: No Other Choice, Weapons

Shocker: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, Jay Kelly

Don’t Guess: If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Nouvelle Vague, Song Sung Blue, Rental Family, The Testament of Ann Lee, Wake Up Dead Man

Would Love to See: The Phoenician Scheme, Nouvelle Vague

– – – – – – – – – –

Director.

Only 8 times ever has the DGA matched 5/5 (and only twice in the era of four precursors (25 years), also not since 2009). But they’re also usually 4/5. So again, guidelines. Generally speaking (and this is usually more helpful with BAFTA, which we don’t have this year), you’re looking at a foreign nominee (which wouldn’t hit DGA) or a Picture nominee with a lot of support. It’s usually pretty straightforward.

Precursors:

Paul Thomas Anderson – DGA, BAFTA, CCA*, Globes*, NBR
Ryan Coogler – DGA, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
Chloe Zhao – DGA, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
Guillermo del Toro – DGA, CCA, Globes
Josh Safdie – DGA, BAFTA, CCA
Joachim Trier – BAFTA, CCA, Globes
Jafar Panahi – Globes
Yorgos Lanthimos – BAFTA
Lynne Ramsay – BAFTA Longlist
Kathryn Bigelow – BAFTA Longlist
Hikari – BAFTA Longlist
Kaouther Ben Hania – BAFTA Longlist

This one seems pretty easy. Sure looks like we have six people vying for five spots. I’d add two more foreign for discussion, but it still seems pretty limited.

Given that the DGA usually only matches 4/5, the first thing we need to do is see which of the DGA nominees is most likely to be left off (especially given that the DGA has missed just about every single foreign language nominee of the past few years). Whether that nominee ends up being Joachim Trier, Jafar Panahi or Kleber Mendonça Filho, we still need to figure out whose place they’re gonna take.

I don’t think it’s Anderson. He’s won two precursors already and is your presumptive winner. Safdie seems really safe given the overall strength of the film. He did miss the Globes, but DGA and a likely BAFTA nomination make me feel okay with him. Zhao’s film seems loved enough for her to get on comfortably. Which means it’s either Ryan Coogler or Guillermo. And… I sure do hate to say this… but aren’t you worried about which one of those two they’re gonna choose? Conventional wisdom says Guillermo, just because the film is not fixing to do as well as the others (in the sense that you can see it getting Picture, a handful of tech nominations and not really making a ton of noise in the end, rather than seriously contending). But I don’t know. This branch has historically not voted for Black or woman directors. They’re changing that, little by little, but 90+ years of history doesn’t lie. So none of this is a given.

I still say it’s probably Guillermo, just because he missed the BAFTA longlists. Which should have been a gimme. He didn’t need to get nominated. But a longlist omission? That tells me it’s probably him. And, given the overall love for Sentimental Value that’s out there, Trier feels like the easy inclusion in that spot. Which puts the DGA at its usual 4/5, puts a foreign director on, as has been the case for like six years straight and fits with what the broad feeling is about the Best Picture race.

Now, you could leave your category at that, and you’d be in a very good position to do well here. But, there’s an option question to be had about whether they’re gonna put a second foreign director in this category.

The first question would be — who are they gonna leave off? Conventional wisdom says it’ll be Coogler, but there’s also a legitimate chance, at that point, that it’s Safdie. If the category breaks that specific way, Safdie feels very vulnerable to me. This could be a scenario where the race is so tight and the margins are so slim that we do get a surprise omission (and inclusion) like that. I feel like it’s Jafar Panahi, if it’s anyone. The film, his stature as a director, there’s a lot there to make me think it’s him, if it’s anyone. Though him not getting longlisted BAFTA… I wonder about that. So, while it could happen, I’m gonna stick with the one swap and let them do something else if they’re gonna.

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

First Alternate: Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

Dark Horse: Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

Surprise: Kleber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent; Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

Shocker: Clint Bentley, Train Dreams; James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash; Park Chan-Wook, No Other Choice

Don’t Guess: Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite; John M. Chu, Wicked: For Good; Kaouther Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajab; Hikari, Rental Family; Lynne Ramsay, Die My Love

Would Love to See: I’d be very happy for all five of the nominees I guessed if they happen.

– – – – – – – – – –

Actor.

Only 3 actors since 2001 were nominated without a precursor (all of whom you saw coming). SAG’s never matched less than 3/5 ever and have been either 4/5 or 5/5 in 9/10 years this past decade. Don’t think you’ve got much to worry about here.

Precursors:

Leonardo DiCaprio – SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Globes, NBR
Timothee Chalamet – SAG, BAFTA, CCA*, Globes*
Ethan Hawke – SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
Michael B. Jordan – SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
Joel Edgerton – BAFTA Longlist, CCA, Globes
Jesse Plemons – SAG, BAFTA, Globes
Wagner Moura – CCA, Globes*
Oscar Isaac – Globes
Dwayne Johnson – Globes
Jeremy Allen White – Globes
George Clooney – Globes
Lee Byung-Hun – Globes
Robert Aramayo – BAFTA
Russell Crowe – BAFTA Longlist
Harry Melling – BAFTA Longlist
Cillian Murphy – BAFTA Longlist

There’s really only seven legitimate contenders. The BAFTA longlist-only people have no shot, and you know Clooney and White have no shot. Lee has a distant shot, but at that point you have to just let it happen, given how little momentum he or the film have shown. Isaac’s clearly not happening either, despite the support for the film. And Johnson’s film has fallen totally flat. And while I’ve heard support for him out there by other actors, he’s not exactly established enough as a dramatic star to make me think he’s overcoming the people ‘above’ him, as it were. Which leaves the seven major contenders, all of whom have multiple precursors.

Leo and Chalamet are obvious locks. Hawke and Jordan have hit everything (BAFTA pending, obviously), so you gotta figure those two are on. So that leaves your final spot between Edgerton, Plemons and Moura. Plemons hit SAG/Globes, Edgerton has CCA/Globes and Moura has CCA/Globes (with a win). Edgerton and Plemons both have the opportunity to hit BAFTA as well. Moura was not shortlisted there, but the Globes win does a lot for him.

I’ll say this — the last time a Globes winner for Best Actor – Drama didn’t get nominated at the Oscars was Jim Carrey in The Truman Show. Before that, Omar Sharif in Doctor Zhivago. And the only other ones before that were Anthony Franciosa in Career and Spencer Tracy in The Actress. So Moura would become just the fifth person ever to not get nominated after winning there. I don’t like those odds. I’m picking him.

Though I will say, Jesse Plemons, coming along with Emma Stone (after having come along once before in Power of the Dog), is not an insignificant possibility. And Edgerton — I keep trying to make the case for him in that spot, but I don’t know (without knowing if he hits BAFTA) if I see him over Moura, let alone Moura and Plemons (maybe Plemons. Maybe). So unless we’re gonna leave someone off here (Hawke makes sense on film support, and Jordan makes sense on… that’s just the Academy I’ve seen operate all these years), I think I’m good with Moura in the fifth spot and letting them do something crazy to put one of the other two on. (But man, I’ll tell you now, no matter who gets on, if Jordan doesn’t make it on, get ready for that.)

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

First Alternate: Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

Dark Horse: Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Surprise: Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein; Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

Shocker: George Clooney, Jay Kelly; Lee Byung-Hun, No Other Choice; Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Don’t Guess: Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?; Brendan Fraser, Rental Family; Cillian Murphy, Steve; Brad Pitt, F1

Would Love to See: I’d be happy with this category.

– – – – – – – – – –

Actress.

5 actresses since 2001 (and 2 this past decade) were nominated without precursors. SAG, while never matching below 3/5, has been 3/5 four times this past decade. So while surprises happen, you do know who the players are, so it’s more just a matter of putting them in the right place.

Precursors:

Rose Byrne – SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Globes*, NBR
Jessie Buckley – SAG, BAFTA, CCA*, Globes*
Chase Infiniti – SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
Emma Stone – SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
Renate Reinsve – BAFTA, CCA, Globes
Kate Hudson – SAG, BAFTA, Globes
Amanda Seyfried – CCA, Globes
Cynthia Erivo – BAFTA Longlist, Globes
Jennifer Lawrence – BAFTA Longlist, Globes
Tessa Thompson – BAFTA Longlist, Globes
Julia Roberts – Globes
Eva Victor – Globes
Andrea Riseborough – BAFTA Longlist

I don’t think we’re gonn have an issue here. At best we have seven choices. And I’ll tell you to toss one of them off right from the get go, and that’s Kate Hudson. Do not be fooled by that glowing SAG red herring. Don’t you do it. That shit is not happening. This is not the Academy of 20 years ago. We’re not walking no goddamn line here.

To memorialize the others — I think we know Riseborough isn’t happening, and I think we know that Roberts and Victor are Globes-only situations. Lawrence and Thompson never got any traction (and even if either gets BAFTA, I’d still say they’re not getting nominated), and Erivo also just has been MIA. Can’t see it alongside the group we already have.

So we have six choices, and to be honest, one of them, Amanda Seyfried, never pulled any of the major precursors to make you think she had a shot. Had she been on the BAFTA shortlist and I could make a case that she’d get nominated there, I could argue she could sneak on the fifth spot. But absent that, you gotta let her be a surprise.

Which brings us to five… the obvious five. I don’t think you need to look much past there. Buckley and Byrne are locks. Stone seems like a safe bet, given her past decade with them. And Reinsve, does anyone think that’s not happening? The only potential vulnerable one is Infiniti, who is brand new and some people might think is ‘too young’. But that’s for a win. The film is so strong and the field is so thin that I don’t know. I think the support for outweighs the support against. Because I don’t see a singular place the support against goes. They’re not all gonna vote for the same person if it’s not her.

I say take the obvious five and let a surprise happen. And if there is gonna be a surprise, if it’s not Amanda Seyfried, then I couldn’t tell you how we ended up at that outcome (BAFTA-depending).

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Emma Stone, Bugonia

First Alternate: Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

Dark Horse: Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love

Surprise: Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue; Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

Shocker: Laura Dern, Is This Thing On?; Zoe Saldana, Avatar: Fire and Ash; Eva Victor, Sorry Baby

Don’t Guess: Julia Garner, Weapons; Julia Roberts, After the Hunt; Tessa Thompson, Hedda

Would Love to See: Seyfried get nominated. But any combination of the top six would be okay. I think the main three will make it, and that’s all that matters to me.

– – – – – – – – – –

Supporting Actor.

Only 6 actors since 2001 were nominated without a precursor (only 1 this decade, LaKeith Stanfield). SAG is variable. They’ve been 4/5 six times this decade but never 5/5. Their one 2/5 was 10 years ago at this point. But their 3/5s have been recent and they do occasionally go way off the board.

Though, with a limited field this year and all the other precursors all pointing the same way, we should have a pretty smooth go of it.

Precursors:

Benicio del Toro – SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Globes, NBR
Jacob Elordi – SAG, BAFTA, CCA*, Globes
Paul Mescal – SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
Sean Penn – SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
Stellan Skarsgard – BAFTA, CCA, Globes*
Adam Sandler – BAFTA Longlist, CCA, Globes
Miles Caton – SAG
Delroy Lindo – BAFTA Longlist
Peter Mullan – BAFTA
Andrew Scott – BAFTA Longlist
Alexander Skarsgard – BAFTA Longlist

I think we all know Sandler’s not actually gonna make it, and Miles Caton is a come-along with the film nomination for SAG (which, as I always say, is mostly a popularity contest nowadays, especially on the edges). Which leaves five people. The same five that have hit most precursors. Which is deceptively straightforward.

There’s always the possibility of a LaKeith Stanfield coming on out of nowhere, but the thing about that is — it’s never someone you’re looking at. It’s someone who’s gonna pop up out of ‘nowhere’. So you gotta look foreign and/or coming along with someone else nominated. Delroy Lindo sure does fit that bill (I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit BAFTA whether he gets nominated or not). But without knowing if he made BAFTA, you’re just grasping at straws.

Skarsgard, del Toro and Penn all seem pretty locked, as does Mescal. Elordi is the one I can see being vulnerable, just being new and knowing how SAG operates. However, unless we get a Sinners inclusion (like Caton or Lindo), I can’t figure out where the nominee is coming from. Even with Stanfield, we couldn’t see it because it was category fraud. Which is what Caton would be. I don’t see another instance of category fraud out there (especially with Skarsgard already here and not in lead). The other thing I should mention, the CCA winner in this category nine of the past ten years. Stallone for Creed was the last one to not win the Oscar. (In fact, Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master is the only other one to not win since 2006). I should also point out that never has the CCA winner not been nominated either. Which tells me this is your category until the historical precedent is broken.

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value

First Alternate: Miles Caton, Sinners

Dark Horse: Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Surprise: William H. Macy, Train Dreams; Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

Shocker: Aidan Delbis, Bugonia; Jacob Jupe, Hamnet; Andrew Scott, Blue Moon

Don’t Guess: Probably anyone else, the way this is looking.

Would Love to See: They’ll get the important two. That’s all that matters.

– – – – – – – – – –

Supporting Actress.

6 nominees without a precursor since 2001. Unlike Supporting Actor, three happened this decade. SAG is about the same as Supporting Actor, though they’re slightly more prone to a 3/5 just because they tend to go more populist compared to the Academy.

This category feels most prone to a 3/5 just because very few people feel truly ‘locked’ here.

Precursors:

Amy Madigan – SAG, BAFTA Longlist, CCA*, Globes
Teyanna Taylor – SAG, BAFTA, CCA, Globes*
Ariana Grande – SAG, BAFTA Longlist, CCA, Globes
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – BAFTA, CCA, NBR, Globes
Wunmi Mosaku – SAG, BAFTA, CCA
Odessa A’Zion – SAG, BAFTA
Elle Fanning – CCA, Globes
Emily Blunt – Globes
Brenda Blethyn – BAFTA Longlist
Carey Mulligan – BAFTA
Gwyneth Paltrow – BAFTA Longlist
Emily Watson – BAFTA

What a fascinating year. I don’t feel confident about most of these people, which somehow makes me more confident. But the whole situation is ripe for someone to come out of nowhere. Though given the films at the top, I don’t really see that there’s anyone who you wouldn’t see coming. Like Emily Watson coming along with Hamnet. It’s not out of the realm of what’s known.

Paltrow feels incredibly unlikely, and I know Blethyn or Mulligan isn’t happening. Blunt didn’t mount much of a campaign past the Globes. And Fanning — that BAFTA longlist miss, coupled with SAG, tells me I need to just let that happen. That leaves me with seven if we include Emily Watson as an out-of-left-field surprise, which I can’t, absent knowing she got BAFTA, guess. So six.

The main person to deal with here is Grande, who, if she’s nominated, would become one of a select few to be nominated twice for playing the same character. Which is an exclusive list. And, given the reception for the film (and an overall vibe of things), I feel like she’s more likely to not be nominated than be nominated. I’m curious if she ends up with BAFTA in the end. But my hunch is telling me she’s the one likely to miss here. And, that being the case, I’ve got my five.

I feel very confident about Taylor and Lilleaas. Madigan seems like a very safe inclusion. I’d have only truly been concerned about her if she missed the BAFTA longlist. Mosaku I think makes it just because I can’t see them shutting out every actor from the film. If Jordan somehow gets left off, I don’t see them also leaving her off (because oh man, if that happens…). Most versions of this Academy, you’d think of course Grande gets on and Mosaku gets left off. But this version… I don’t know about that. Which puts A’Zion as the fifth choice, coming along with Chalamet. Which isn’t the worst decision. I’d feel better if I knew what BAFTA did with her, but right now, she feels on the safest ground to me. And if I’m taking someone not her, I might be taking a flyer on Emily Watson.

The ‘safe’ version here is to go with Lilleaas on (because the SAG omission is meaningless) and A’Zion off and Grande on. But I just am not gonna do that. So let’s see how it goes. It’s probably not the most advisable choice, but I also like taking random shots for things I believe in that, while not the ‘safe’ play, feel justifiable enough and possible enough to go for.

Best Supporting Actress

Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

First Alternate: Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

Dark Horse: Emily Watson, Hamnet

Surprise: Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine; Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Shocker: Regina Hall, One Battle After Another; Felicity Jones, Train Dreams; Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

Don’t Guess: Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man; Zoey Deutch, Nouvelle Vague; Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners

Would Love to See: A’Zion get nominated

– – – – – – – – – –

Original Screenplay.

We don’t have WGA this year. They’re not announcing for a few days. But, something to look at after they do — only 2 scripts this past decade were nominated without precursors (20th Century Women, The Worst Person in the World) and both were WGA-ineligible.

What’s interesting this year is that there are really only three solid contenders that we ‘know’ about, and without the WGA or BAFTA, we’re just gonna be guessing. Good luck, all.

Precursors:

Sinners – WGA, BAFTA Longlist, CCA*, Globes, NBR
Marty Supreme – WGA, BAFTA Longlist, CCA, Globes
Sentimental Value – BAFTA Longlist, CCA, Globes
Weapons – WGA, BAFTA Longlist, CCA
Jay Kelly – CCA
Sorry, Baby – CCA
Blue Moon – BAFTA Longlist
A House of Dynamite – BAFTA Longlist
I Swear – BAFTA Longlist
Is This Thing On? – BAFTA Longlist
It Was Just an Accident – BAFTA Longlist
The Secret Agent – BAFTA Longlist
Black Bag — WGA
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You — WGA

We all have to start with Sinners, Marty Supreme and Sentimental Value. Given the dearth of original stuff this year, if they leave any of those off, what the fuck are we doing here? So that’s 3/5 minimum and you can feel good about that. Past that, I feel like we’re all just looking foreign, right?

I Swear and House of Dynamite won’t happen, so toss those off. Sorry Baby would be something I’d normally say would go WGA because of ineligibles, but it’s ineligible there. So is Blue Moon. So I don’t really know what to do with those. Blue Moon isn’t written by Linklater, so I don’t know if that helps or hurts it. Linklater tends to get ignored. So I’ll say no until I see it. Is This Thing On — without knowing it made BAFTA (or WGA), I can’t guess it. The film’s been ignored everywhere. They love Cooper, but it is nowhere. Is This Thing On the Side of a Milk Carton, am I right? (I’ll be here all week, folks. Also shout out to anyone who even gets that reference.)

That brings us to Jay Kelly. Sure seems appealing, doesn’t it? Noah Baumbach, high profile. But lest we forget, Baumbach has only been nominated twice for his own films (and once for Barbie), Squid and the Whale and Marriage Story. That’s it. They don’t usually go for his stuff. Didn’t even make the BAFTA longlist. That tells me something, and tells me not to guess it, even with space for things and a clear lane in front of it. (Though if it gets nominated, that does mean Academy Award Nominee Emily Mortimer. Who’d have guessed that one in Screenplay?)

So that leaves me with three films for two spots. And really there’s only one film you gotta figure out: Weapons. It’ll get WGA. It’s exactly what would get nominated there, especially if something they’d rather nominate is ineligible. But I’m torn on whether the branch will actually nominate it here. I think you can legitimately guess it based on the field we have this year.

However, if I’m guessing both The Secret Agent and It Was Just an Accident in Best Picture, why wouldn’t I also guess them both in Screenplay? Sure, Weapons can get on instead of one of them, but where else are you gonna go? I feel like they’re actually more likely to get Screenplay than Picture. So I’m taking them both and take the 4/5 if I’m wrong. (Though, honestly, I feel like 3/5 is very much in play here as well. I can’t explain why.)

I should also mention the last detail (great Hal Ashby film. … apparently I won’t stop) — if something is gonna get nominated without a precursor (at least until the WGA announces) — If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Screenplay nominations tend to come along with an acting nominee, especially given that there’s no major ‘auteur’ writer out there with a script. I think that movie may have enough support to potentially sneak a nomination without it being on people’s radar based on the current landscape of precursors. So just keep that in mind.

Best Original Screenplay

It Was Just an Accident

Marty Supreme

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

First Alternate: Weapons

Dark Horse: If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Surprise: Blue Moon, Jay Kelly

Shocker: Is This Thing On?, Nouvelle Vague, Sorry Baby

Don’t Guess: A House of Dynamite, The Phoenician Scheme, The Testament of Ann Lee

Would Love to See: Nouvelle Vague. Though I’d also be very happy with the category I guessed.

– – – – – – – – – –

Adapted Screenplay.

This is usually easier to predict than Original just because there’s less variance. You know what the contenders are. Only 1 script this decade was nominated without a precursor (Ballad of Buster Scruggs). And the WGA, presuming things are eligible, will usually get it right by themselves. But we don’t have them, so we’re just pissing with our eyes closed. Fortunately the field seems very limited this year, so I think it should be okay.

Precursors:

One Battle After Another – WGA, BAFTA Longlist, CCA*, Globes*
Hamnet – WGA, BAFTA Longlist, CCA, Globes
Train Dreams – WGA, BAFTA Longlist, CCA, NBR
Bugonia – WGA, BAFTA Longlist, CCA
Frankenstein – WGA, BAFTA Longlist, CCA
No Other Choice – CCA
28 Years Later – BAFTA Longlist
The Ballad of Wallis Island – BAFTA Longlist
Nuremberg – BAFTA Longlist
Pillion – BAFTA Longlist
Wake Up Dead Man – BAFTA Longlist

Based on this, I see only six major contenders. I don’t know what’d be coming out of nowhere. Maybe I can get to seven, just because the previous two Knives Out scripts were nominated (and it’s possible we’re missing a WGA nomination and a BAFTA nomination that we’ll be able to see after the fact). So sure, seven possible scripts. Still tells you you’re gonna get four of them right almost no matter what you do.

One Battle and Hamnet are stone cold locks. I also can’t imagine they leave off Train Dreams. They’ll leave that off a bunch of places, but not here. And then Bugonia and Frankenstein both seem like solid inclusions. Frankenstein is the one I’d see getting left off. But at that point, you’re guessing Wake Up Dead Man based on the possibility of other precursors or No Other Choice, which only has CCA and doesn’t really have a ton of momentum. So I’ll take the obvious five here and see what they choose to leave off.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Train Dreams

First Alternate: Wake Up Dead Man

Dark Horse: No Other Choice

Surprise: Song Sung Blue, Wicked: For Good

Shocker: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Highest 2 Lowest, Nuremberg

Don’t Guess: 28 Years Later, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Peter Hujar’s Day, Pillion

Would Love to See: They’ll get the important two, and that’s all that matters.

– – – – – – – – – –

Editing.

We’ve only had 4 Editing nominees this decade from non-Best Picture nominees. 3 of them had 3-5 nominations (the other had 2). And only 2 films since 2009 were nominated without a precursor (both Picture nominees, none since 2013). Between Picture nominees, precursors and common sense, you’ll be fine. Though here, ACE isn’t nominating for a few days, so again, we’re just guessing.

Precursors:

F1 – ACE, BAFTA, CCA*
A House of Dynamite – BAFTA, CCA
Marty Supreme – ACE, BAFTA, CCA
One Battle After Another – ACE, BAFTA, CCA
Sinners – ACE, BAFTA, CCA
The Perfect Neighbor – CCA
28 Years Later – BAFTA Longlist
Bugonia – ACE, BAFTA Longlist
Frankenstein – BAFTA Longlist
Hamnet – ACE, BAFTA Longlist
Weapons – ACE, BAFTA Longlist
Sentimental Value — ACE
Wake Up Dead Man — ACE
Wicked — ACE

What a year. Working on one precursor and a longlist. There’s something fun about that. Especially with two films likely not making Picture among the top five in precursors.

Since Editing is a Picture category, you have to figure One Battle After Another, Hamnet and Marty Supreme are gonna get on. If it’s a frontrunner in Picture, it’s gonna get nominated in Editing. And Marty Supreme, while not the frontrunner the other two are, should be included based on the pacing of the film. I would’t go anywhere else for my top three choices. After that, it’s up in the air, without our two major precursors.

I feel like, give the history, it’s a fool’s errand to guess F1. I know it won CCA, but Challengers won CCA Editing last year. How’d that work out? I’m probably gonna do it anyway, because I’m stupid, but if they do nominate all Picture nominees, that’s the one that’s not making it.

But if I put it on, that takes me to four. And that leaves one spot. And I’m just gonna make it Sinners. I don’t think Sentimental Value needs Editing, and I don’t think Frankenstein needs Editing. At that point, is there anything that they’d put that would seriously contend for a win? I don’t think so. So I’m gonna take the obvious five, absent having all the information, and see what they do. Maybe a Train Dreams surprises, or maybe they go foreign with Sirât or The Secret Agent, but without all the data, I’m gonna default to the most obvious scenario and see what comes in.

Best Editing

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

First Alternate: Frankenstein

Dark Horse: Sentimental Value

Surprise: The Secret Agent, Train Dreams

Shocker: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Bugonia, Wicked: For Good

Don’t Guess: 28 Years Later, The Perfect Neighbor, Weapons

Would Love to See: They’ll get the one they need to get.

– – – – – – – – – –

Cinematography.

Since 2009, only 2 films were nominated without a precursor (3, if you remove BSC). ASC alone is 4/5 or better every year since 2006 and has, since it began, correctly predicted 155/195 nominees. That’s 40 misses in 39 years, averaging 4/5 every single year. Even crazier? Since 2009, 70/80. So yeah, they’re your north star. And if it doesn’t hit ASC, it probably needs multiple other precursors to stand a chance.

Precursors:

Sinners – ASC, BSC, BAFTA, CCA, NBR
One Battle After Another – ASC, BSC, BAFTA, CCA
Frankenstein – ASC, BSC, BAFTA, CCA
Train Dreams – ASC, BAFTA, CCA*
Marty Supreme – ASC, BSC, BAFTA
Die My Love – BSC, BAFTA Longlist
Hamnet – BAFTA Longlist, CCA
F1 – BAFTA Longlist, CCA
Ballad of a Small Player – BAFTA Longlist
Bugonia – BAFTA Longlist
Nouvelle Vague – N/A
Sentimental Value – N/A
Sirât – N/A
Song Sung Blue – N/A
Sound of Falling – N/A
Wicked: For Good – N/A

We’ve got a shortlist for the first time, so I guess that makes it easier. 16 films, too. Which means there was a tie. Six of them got no precursors, so I can’t imagine they’re getting nominated. None of those six films’ cinematographers have the name value that would normally get nominated without a precursor. Wicked, given the reception for the visuals of that, I don’t see it. Song Sung Blue, don’t see that either. Sentimental Value is not exactly the most visual movie ever. Sound of Falling I guess could sneak on in a Never Look Away type of way, but Never Look Away was shot by Caleb Deschanel. This doesn’t have that. So I don’t see it. Sirat, same deal. Noevelle Vague, would be cool, but without the support, I can’t guess it.

Ballad of a Small Player and Bugonia only have BAFTA shortlists (and not even BSC). Both DPs are known quantities. Small Player is James Friend, who won for All Quiet. Bugonia is Robbie Ryan, very respected and nominated for two previous Yorgos efforts. I don’t see either making it, personally. That takes away half the list without much fuss. We can take of one more — F1. It’s Claudio Miranda, who was just nominated for Top Gun, but this doesn’t have the response Top Gun had. So without the guilds, can’t see it happening. Doubt BAFTA will go there either. Also, Die My Love. Only hit the British contingency. Hard to see that as a serious contender. It is Seamus McGarvey, who is respected. But he’s only ever been nominated for Joe Wright films. I’m just gonna let them do it.

Which leaves me with six options. Sinners and One Battle feel like absolute locks, so those are automatic. Which is interesting, because both are newcomers who’ve never been nominated (not typically what they go for). Frankenstein is Dan Lautsen, nominated for the previous two Guillermo efforts. So, seems likely. And that leaves three films for two spots.

First, Train Dreams. Shot by Adolpho Veloso, another newcomer. But it’s hit everything you want to see and won CCA. Which — the winner of CCA has, all but four times, won the Oscar. Not just been nominated. Won. No winner from CCA went un-nominated. So I have to figure that’s getting on.

So that leaves me with Marty Supreme vs. Hamnet. And… I’m torn. Hamnet is Lukasz Zal, nominated twice before, both for Pawel Pawlikowski films (Ida, Cold War). He also shot Zone of Interest (and was not nominated for that). Marty Supreme is Darius Khondji, respected veteran who’s somehow only ever been nominated twice (Evita, Bardo). Tough choice, this one. Because Marty Supreme has the precursors and Hamnet has more of a stature as a contender.

Maybe both get on and Train Dreams or Frankenstein gets left off (I’m leaning Frankenstein). Still, I think we’re only dealing with six major contenders here, unless they toss a foreign one on nobody’s expecting. So let’s go with this, even though I could see Hamnet over Frankenstein.

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Train Dreams

First Alternate: Hamnet

Dark Horse: Die My Love

Surprise: Bugonia, Sentimental Value

Shocker: F1, Nouvelle Vague, Sound of Falling

Don’t Guess: Ballad of a Small Player, Sirât, Song Sung Blue, Wicked: For Good

Would Love to See: Nouvelle Vague

– – – – – – – – – –

Score.

In the past decade, 6 scores have been nominated without precursors. Two were John Williams (which is like Diane Warren in Song. They’re gonna do it). 4 of those came in the shortlist era. They are: Da 5 Bloods, Indiana Jones (Williams), American Fiction and Wicked. So basically, unless it’s John Williams, the odds favor a Picture nominee making it on. It’s doable.

Precursors:

Sinners (Ludwig Goransson) – BAFTA, CCA*, Globes*
Frankenstein (Alexandre Desplat) – BAFTA, CCA, Globes
Hamnet (Max Richter) – BAFTA, CCA, Globes
One Battle After Another (Jonny Greenwood) – BAFTA, CCA, Globes
F1 (Hans Zimmer) – CCA, Globes
Marty Supreme (Daniel Lopatin) – BAFTA Longlist, CCA
Sirat (Kanding Ray) – Globes
Bugonia (Jerskin Fendrix) – BAFTA
Nuremberg (Brian Tyler) – BAFTA Longlist
Wicked: For Good (John Powell) – BAFTA Longlist
Avatar: Fire and Ash (Simon Franglen) – N/A
Captain America: Brave New World (Laura Karpman) – N/A
Diane Warren: Relentless (Lesley Warren) – N/A
Hedda (Hildur Guonadottir) – N/A
A House of Dynamite (Volker Bertelmann) – N/A
Jay Kelly (Nicholas Britell) – N/A
Train Dreams (Bryce Dessner) – N/A
Tron: Ares (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross) – N/A
Truth and Treason (Aaron Zigman) – N/A
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Nathan Johnson) – N/A

This one is so top-heavy we might get something crazy. I can’t imagine Sinners, Frankenstein, Hamnet and One Battle After Another aren’t all nominated. Goransson, Desplat, Greenwood are all multi-time nominees, and the films are all Picture contenders. Hamnet also seems like an easy inclusion, having hit all the precursors. Now, admittedly, Max Richter has never been nominated, and that does hold sway in this category, so don’t rule out a potential omission there. But I think they’ll nominate it on title alone.

Looking at who the composers are is usually a great indicator of what might get on without precursors. Because, given that we seem to have four locks here, either F1 or Marty Supreme is taking the fifth spot based on precursors or we’re gonna get something out of nowhere (at least until we have the hindsight of BAFTA). Who composed the scores is a good indicator, because they usually don’t stray far from people they know/like. For example, Brian Tyler composed Nuremberg. Here are some of the scores he’s done: Fast X, Scream VI, Ready or Not, Age of Ultron. He’s never been nominated. Why would you think that would start now for a film people may not have watched that no one seems to care about?

Plus, given that most of the nominees in recent years are high profile/awards films, that tells me Tron, House of Dynamite, Truth and Treason, Wake Up Dead Man and Captain America aren’t happening. Sure, they’re all previous nominees (and even two winners from the past five years), but the films don’t fit the mold of what gets nominated lately. So why guess them without precursors?

I’d say throw on the Diane Warren documentary too, but I don’t know if that Song thing they have with her extends to Score as well. Because there is legitimately zero score in that documentary and I don’t how that even managed to get on outside of her name. I’m just gonna leave that one alone and move along.

Now, in that next tier of ‘could happen’ — Avatar is a high profile movie. Composer’s not one they’ve nominated before, but it’s theoretically possible, even without a precursor. Unlikely, but possible. Hedda — not high profile, but composer is known and a previous winner. I think the first part outweighs the second part and tells me it won’t happen. Jay Kelly — not as high profile as you’d think, and the composer’s been nominated three times. Possible, but without a precursor feels unlikely. Sirat — technically has a precursor, but I’m not gonna hold my breath thinking they’re gonna go there. Train Dreams — no precursor, composer never nominated. However, serious contender for a Picture nominee and a handful of nominations. It can happen. This is the only one without a precursor I’d seriously consider.

For the two that are BAFTA longlist only (not having the benefit of knowing if they’re nominated): Bugonia is the type of film that fits the mold of this category — it’ll be nominated for Picture, get a handful of nominations, composer’s been nominated before. Then there’s Wicked, which didn’t make the longlist last year (or get nominated anywhere) and then made it on. So it’s actually in better standing now than it was last year.

If anything’s coming from the scores without a precursor (or precursor at the moment), I’m looking at Train Dreams and Wicked as the two most likely choices (with Bugonia a distant third).

Now, looking at what does have precursors — F1 was nominated at CCA and the Globes and is Hans Zimmer. He’s a two-time winner. However, in the past 15 years, his only nominations were for Chris Nolan films or Dune. Just saying. Could happen, just doesn’t necessarily feel like something this branch typically goes for. Not even being longlisted at BAFTA tells me everything I need to know. That leaves Marty Supreme. CCA and BAFTA longlist. If I knew it was nominated for BAFTA, I’d feel better about it, but it still feels like a legitimate contender here.

To summarize all of this: I’m not leaving Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another or Sinners off my list. And for the fifth spot, the only scores I’m considering taking are Marty Supreme, Wicked and Train Dreams. I’ve considered Sirât as well, but I don’t have a strong enough feeling to actually guess it. I guess I’ll take Marty Supreme, even though somehow my gut says they leave that off (because Oscar nominee Oneohtrix Point Never?) in favor of Wicked or Train Dreams. But I’ll be happy if I can get 4/5.

Best Original Score

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

First Alternate: Train Dreams

Dark Horse: Wicked: For Good

Surprise: F1, Sirât

Shocker: Bugonia, Diane Warren: Relentless, Tron: Ares

Don’t Guess: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Captain America: Brave New World, Hedda, A House of Dynamite, Jay Kelly, Nuremberg, Truth and Treason, Wake Up Dead Man

Would Love to See: Honestly the top six are all hugely worthy. Maybe we can get a tie and six total nominees.

– – – – – – – – – –

Song.

First, we’ll start with one of my favorite parts of awards season — listening to all the eligible songs. I’m saving space this year and linking to each song rather than embedding the videos.

“Clouds Away,” from Arco – * * * ½
“Dream as One,” from Avatar: Fire and Ash – * * * ½
“Goodlife,” from The Bad Guys 2 – * * *
“Taking Everything,” from The Bad Guys 2 – * * * ½
“Our Love,” from The Ballad of Wallis Island – * * * ½
“Fight Like a Girl,” from Ballerina – * * *
“However Long Forever Is,” from Bau, Artist at War – * * * ½
“The Risk,” from A Big Bold Beautiful Journey – * * *
“Dying to Live,” from Billy Idol Should Be Dead – * * *
“Immigrantes,” from Black Butterflies – Couldn’t find.
“Semilla De Fe,” from Brownsville Bred – * * * ½
“Rabbit Run,” from Caught Stealing – * * *
“Rising Sun at the Edge of the Ocean,” from Chronicles of Disney – * * ½
“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet,” from Come See Me in the Good Light – * * * ½
“Follow the Light,” from David – * * *
“DOA,” from Death of a Unicorn – * * *
“They Say That Nothing Dies,” from Déjà vu: The Peril of Pauline – Couldn’t find.
“Dear Me,” from Diane Warren: Relentless – * * * ½
“Drive,” from F1 – * * * ½
“Lose My Mind,” from F1 – * * * ½
“Baby,” from Freakier Friday – * * * ½
“Kaleidoscope,” from Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie – * * *
“Good Goodbye,” from Goodbye June – * * *
“Highest 2 Lowest,” from Highest 2 Lowest – * * * * ½
“Trunks,” from Highest 2 Lowest – * * * ½
“Him,” from Him – * * *
“You Are My Homeward,” from How to Train Your Dragon – * * *
“Hurry Up Tomorrow,” from Hurry Up Tomorrow – * * * ½
“Some Believe,” from I Know Catherine, the Log Lady – * * ½
“The Holding on and the Letting Go,” from In Your Dreams – * * *
“Golden,” from KPop Demon Hunter – * * * * *
“I Will Not Take It Anymore,” from Lilly – * * *
“Long Shadows,” from Long Shadows – * * *
“My Baby (Got Nothing at All),” from Materialists – * * * ½
“I Feel Alive,” from A Minecraft Movie – * * *
“Beautiful Ruin,” from My Dead Friend Zoe – * * *
“Song for Henry,” from On Swift Horses – * * *
“Dina, Simone,” from Opus – * * * ½
“Let’s Prepare for Paddington,” from Paddington in Peru – * * * ½
“Bawragayi,” from Paro – Couldn’t find.
“Lament,” from Paro – Couldn’t find
“My San Francisco,” from Plainclothes – * * *
“A Wildflower,” from Roommates – * * ½
“Trauma,” from The Rose: Come Back to Me – * * *
“We Believe in Hope,” from Rule Breakers – * * ½
“The Gift,” from Sarah’s Oil – Weirdly not available.
“A Celebration Song,” from Scarlet – * * *
“Nostalgia,” from Scarlet – * * *
“Vastness,” from Scarlet – * * * ½
“Wait for Me,” from Sheepdog – * * *
“I Lied to You,” from Sinners – * * * * ½
“Last Time (I Seen the Sun),” from Sinners – * * * *
“Steel Grave,” from Songs From the Hole – * * *
“Big Guy,” from The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants – * * ½
“Don’t Leave Too Soon,” from Steve – * * ½
“The Mighty Crabjoys Theme,” from Superman – * * *
“Clothed by the Sun,” from The Testament of Ann Lee – * * * ½
“John’s Running Song,” from The Testament of Ann Lee – * * * *
“Train Dreams,” from Train Dreams – * * * ½
“As Alive As You Need Me to Be,” from Tron: Ares – * * * *
“Open the Door,” from The Twits – * * * ½
“Sweet Dreams of Joy,” from Viva Verdi! – * * *
“The Girl in the Bubble,” from Wicked: For Good – * * * *
“No Place Like Home,” from Wicked: For Good – * * *
“I’m From Ulundurpettai,” from Yolo – * * *
“Mudhal Mazhaithuli,” from Yolo – * * *
“Kangal Kaanum Oru Kanavo,” from Yolo – * * *
“Zoo,” from Zootopia – * * *

Legitimately I could have filled an entire category with just songs from KPop Demon Hunters. “Takedown.” “How It’s Done.” “Soda Pop.” “Your Idol.” Incredible work. But they only allow two, per the rules. And Netflix did the targeted thing of only submitting one song to filter all the votes to it. That’s the move you make when you know you have a winner.

But anyway, if I’m picking my own category, I’m taking:

“As Alive as You Need Me to Be,” from Tron: Ares
“The Girl in the Bubble,” from Wicked: For Good
“Golden,” from KPop Demon Hunters
“Highest 2 Lowest, from Highest 2 Lowest
“I Lied to You,” from Sinners

Anyway, let’s get into the picking. We’ve had 7 shortlists to this point. The precursors were great for a while (4/5, 4/5, 5/5, 4/5), but the past three years, (3/5, 2/5, 2/5) not so much. Which means they’re we’re almost back to where we used to be, where there’s some guesswork involved and random shit can happen.

Precursors:

“Golden,” from KPop Demon Hunters – CCA*, Globes*
“I Lied to You,” from Sinners – CCA, Globes
“Train Dreams,” from Train Dreams – CCA, Globes
“The Girl in the Bubble,” from Wicked: For Good – CCA, Globes
“Dream as One,” from Avatar: Fire and Ash – CCA
“Drive,” from F1 – CCA
“No Place Like Home,” from Wicked: For Good – Globes
“As Alive As You Need Me to Be,” from Tron: Ares – N/A
“Dear Me,” from Diane Warren: Relentless – N/A
“Dying to Live,” from Billy Idol Should Be Dead – N/A
“Highest 2 Lowest,” from Highest 2 Lowest – N/A
“Last Time (I Seen The Sun),” from Sinners – N/A
“Our Love,” from The Ballad of Wallis Island – N/A
“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet,” from Come See Me in the Good Light – N/A
“Sweet Dreams of Joy,” from Viva Verdi! – N/A

The good news is, we know what’s winning, so the only thing we need to do is guess which four are losing to it. Fortunately, you have one already set, because you know they’re gonna nominate Diane Warren every time no matter what (10/11 years in a row, now). So that’s two. And good luck trying to guess that they’re gonna leave Sinners off, specifically “I Lied to You.” So that’s three. After that, there’s a discussion to be had, but at least you have your foundation.

Let’s try to handicap those two spots.

The first (and probably most important) thing to mention is: in the shortlist era, there hasn’t ben a single nominee that wasn’t from a film that people were aware of, either through who wrote/sang it or because of the film itself.

Here’s a list of just the film titles of Song nominees since the shortlists began (* means it’s Diane Warren): A Star Is Born, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Black Panther, Mary Poppins Returns, RBG*, Rocketman, Breakthrough*, Frozen 2, Harriet, Toy Story 4, Judas and the Black Messiah, Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga, The Life Ahead*, One Night in Miami…, The Trial of the Chicago 7, No Time to Die, Belfast, Encanto, Four Good Days*, King Richard, RRR, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tell It Like a Woman*, Top Gun: Maverick, Barbie, American Symphony, Flamin’ Hot*, Killers of the Flower Moon, Emilia Pérez, Elton John: Never Too Late, Sing Sing, The Six Triple Eight*.

All that tells me not to pick anything that’s not high profile. So “Sweet Dreams of Joy,” “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet,” “Our Love,” “Dying to Live” — toss them off. Just let them happen. The Academy has shown us for close to a decade now those types of songs don’t get nominated. So why guess them? They also don’t have precursors, so it’s a double reach.

Next — songs that could happen, but feel unlikely. First, “Drive.” Movie’s known, yes. But it’s Ed Sheeran. Never been nominated, yet been writing high profile songs for a decade. Until they nominate him, why would you guess him? (Notice how that doesn’t even include the actual substance of the song itself, which is kind of a generic end credits song for a movie of that caliber. It’s not to their tastes at all.) Next, “As Alive As You Need Me to Be.” Nine Inch Nails (and they’ve won Score twice), great song. But, it’s Tron, which nobody particularly liked (and admittedly they’re gonna also look at the fact that it didn’t make money. This is how they think). You kinda just have to let it happen. It feels like a waste of a guess. “Highest 2 Lowest.” I love the song, but missing all the precursors and the film being overlooked everywhere makes me wonder if anyone cares enough to even vote for it. This is one where I’d rather be wrong with it off and it gets on than wrong guessing it and it gets left off.

And now, Miley. CCA nomination, yes, but is anyone feeling this? She’s campaigned for it, so it could happen. And it feels like a logical top contender. But, she had a song last year, let’s not forget. And that got both precursor nominations and was left off. Granted, this is a higher profile effort than that was, but it’s still there. My gut says this is more likely to be left off than put on simply because I don’t know if anyone particularly cares about this song. Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt co-wrote it, so that’s something, but ultimately it just feels like it’s gonna be on the outside looking in.

That leaves us with two doubles to deal with an one remaining single. The single is “Train Dreams.” And it got both precursors. Which, in the precursor era, 27 songs were nominated at both precursors. 2/3 of them (18) were nominated and 1/3 (9) were not. I should also point out that 7 of the 9 songs that didn’t came in the past three years. Take that for what you will. The odds favor it getting on, but recent history is trending strongly the other way. Which, good time to expand that to everything. We have four songs that hit both precursors. So, historically, that means two will be nominated, one won’t, and the fourth is a crapshoot. “Golden” and “I Lied to You” sure are looking like the two that are gonna get on. That leaves “Train Dreams” and “Girl in the Bubble” as the pair remaining. Statistically one will not get nominated and the other could go either way. I’ll let you draw your own conclusions.

Though maybe this is a year the precursors round back into form and all four get on and they bounce back from two down years to being 4/5 or 5/5 again. Who knows? Just saying, I have concerns about “Train Dreams,” even though it feels like an easy fifth choice for a spot. But, to make it the fifth spot, we have to deal with the doubles first.

“Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” is a second song from Sinners. It didn’t hit a precursor, and while it’s a good song, it’s not the main song from that movie. At that point you’re picking them to nominate it on film visibility alone. I’m worried they’re gonna leave this out of some high profile categories, so getting two Songs feels dicey to me. I don’t see it, but one never truly knows.

That leaves us with the Wicked double. And this, to me, is the crux of your category. Because it seems very obvious that the film is gonna come in soft this year. So I don’t see them liking it enough to put two songs on. I could see them potentially leaving both songs off more than I can see both songs on. But, if that’s the case, and you’re not gonna guess both songs, the question becomes which song you pick. Everything I’m seeing points to “The Girl in the Bubble” being the song they’re promoting and that being the most likely addition. So that’s where I’m going.

And if we assume, as a musical and all the other stuff, that they nominate at least one song, and that’s the song you choose — now you have one final spot to deal with. Does that final spot go to “No Place Like Home”? Does it go to “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)?” What do you do with it? “Train Dreams” also makes a lot of sense,” and Miley’s there too.

I think I’m gonna stick with “Train Dreams” in the final spot, because somehow, even if the branch makes a weird choice, that’s middle of the road enough to feel safe to me. Like, if they leave a major contender off, that feels like something that’ll get enough partisan votes to make it through.

Let’s see what they do. Honestly, I feel good about three of these, so I’ll take it. And if it’s worse than that, then fingers crossed it means this is finally the year (you know what I mean).

Best Original Song

“Dear Me,” from Diane Warren: Relentless

“The Girl in the Bubble,” from Wicked: For Good

“Golden,” from KPop Demon Hunters

“I Lied to You,” from Sinners

“Train Dreams,” from Train Dreams

First Alternate: “No Place Like Home,” from Wicked: For Good

Dark Horse: “Dream as One,” from Avatar: Fire and Ash

Surprise: “Last Time (I Seen The Sun),” from Sinners; “Highest 2 Lowest,” from Highest 2 Lowest

Shocker: “As Alive As You Need Me to Be,” from Tron: Ares; “Drive,” from F1; “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet,” from Come See Me in the Good Light

Don’t Guess: “Our Love,” from The Ballad of Wallis Island; “Dying to Live,” from Billy Idol Should Be Dead; “Sweet Dreams of Joy,” from Viva Verdi!

Would Love to See: “Highest 2 Lowest,” “As Alive As You Need Me to Be”

– – – – – – – – – –

Production Design.

Since 2009, only 2 films were nominated without precursors (none since 2011). ADG alone has missed 5 total nominees since 2010 (and BAFTA picked up three of them). So yeah, you’re good. This is one of those categories where you don’t have to wrack your brain for contenders. They’re all laid out in front of you.

Precursors:

The Fantastic Four: First Steps – ADG, BAFTA Longlist, SDSA, CCA
Frankenstein – ADG, BAFTA, SDSA, CCA*
Hamnet – ADG, BAFTA, SDSA, CCA
Marty Supreme – ADG, BAFTA, SDSA, CCA
Sinners – ADG, BAFTA, SDSA, CCA
Wicked: For Good – ADG, BAFTA Longlist, SDSA, CCA
Bugonia – ADG, BAFTA Longlist, SDSA
One Battle After Another – ADG, BAFTA, SDSA
Avatar: Fire and Ash – ADG, SDSA
The Phoenician Scheme – ADG, SDSA
Superman – ADG, SDSA
Wake Up Dead Man – ADG, SDSA
Mickey 17 – ADG, BAFTA Longlist
F1 – ADG
Mission: Impossible The Final Reckoning – ADG
Jay Kelly – SDSA
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale – SDSA
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere – SDSA
How to Train Your Dragon – SDSA
Freakier Friday – SDSA
Roofman – SDSA
Ballad of a Small Player – BAFTA Longlist

First step for this category: remove all the contemporary films. Roofman, Ballad of a Small Player, Freakier Friday, Springsteen, Jay Kelly, Mission Impossible, F1, Wake Up Dead Man. Gone. That means One Battle After Another, too. They don’t vote contemporary (yeah, yeah, Conclave, I know. Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is a trend. We’re still only at one). Also, Bugonia. I know there’s a fantasy sequence in it, but 95% is contemporary, and them putting it on purely for that sequence would surprise me.

That leaves 12 films. Two of them, Downton Abbey and How to Train Your Dragon were only nominated at SDSA. Downton didn’t even make BAFTA. Also, this category, recent years — it skews to a higher weight class than those two movies. I don’t think either rates. So we’re down to 10. Oh, and while we’re here — Superman, Mickey 17, not happening. Fantasy only, not getting nominated anywhere major. That’s not them. We’re down to 8. Not bad. 8 films for 5 spots. Surely it’s gonna get pretty easy from here.

Okay, let’s start with the obvious one — The Phoenician Scheme. They don’t respect Wes Anderson in this category. Grand Budapest Hotel is the only one of his films to get nominated. Given that BAFTA didn’t even shortlist this one, I don’t see that trend breaking. So down to 7.

Let’s go from the other side — do we think Guillermo’s not gonna make it? Last two got nominated, don’t see any reason this won’t. Production Design is one of the highlights of his films. Also, Wicked. They could hate a lot about that movie, but production design is one of the things it did very right. I’m not leaving it off my list. That’s two. Also, Hamnet? Can’t imagine that gets left off, either. And Sinners — not leaving it off my list. So that’s four on.

We’re left with three films for one spot, and simply looking at the titles, I know what I’m gonna do. I’m gonna start with Fantastic Four. Because it hit all the precursors so far (BAFTA is the one I’d have wanted to see, but oh well) and is a sci-fi movie. It has all the signs of getting nominated. However… in the past decade, only four films were nominated in this category with less than 3 overall nominations: Tenet, Beauty and the Beast, Passengers and Hail Caesar. Notice anything there in terms of class-level? Also, guess how many times Marvel’s been nominated in this category. If you guessed ‘only Black Panther’, you’d be right. So color me dubious about this one’s chances. It’s not the kind of movie this category has in it most of the time. I don’t care what the precursors say, I’m looking at what the Academy says. I’m leaving it off and letting them put it on. I’m cool with being wrong about this one. I’m playing the percentages.

Second, Avatar. You’d think, “Why would a movie shot on green screen be nominated in Production Design?” Well, the last two were. First one won. Last one missed BAFTA entirely too, still got nominated. Though admittedly it did also have CCA. Not saying it’s happening, just saying its’s following a similar pattern. I think you could take it. But the last one you saw making some major categories. This one you don’t. So it feels less likely.

That leaves me with Marty Supreme, which has his everything so far (BAFTA-pending). While I’m not 100% sold on it as a nominee, it makes a lot of sense. So I’m gonna just take that as the fifth choice and let them go whichever other way they want. I feel way more comfortable with that over something like Fantastic Four, as ilogical as that sounds.

Best Production Design

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

First Alternate: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Dark Horse: The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Surprise: Bugonia, One Battle After Another

Shocker: How to Train Your Dragon, Mickey 17, The Phoenician Scheme

Don’t Guess: Ballad of a Small Player, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, Freakier Friday, Roofman, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Superman, Wake Up Dead Man

Would Love to See: The Phoenician Scheme

– – – – – – – – – –

Costumes.

Since 2009, 6 films were nominated without a precursor (never more than 1 in a single year). CDG has predicted 4/5 nominees or greater all but twice since 2005 (and the two were both 3/5). They’ve only missed 15 total nominees since 2009. So yeah, we’re good.

Also, even though we don’t have BAFTA to gauge for sure, but since 2009, only 4 films hit all three precursors and weren’t nominated (Black Swan, Saving Mr. Banks, Brooklyn and Bohemian Rhapsody). In three of those cases, something was nominated without precursors over them.

Precursors:

Frankenstein – CDG, BAFTA, CCA*
Hamnet – CDG, BAFTA, CCA
Sinners – CDG, BAFTA, CCA
Wicked: For Good – CDG, BAFTA, CCA
Hedda – CDG, CCA
Bugonia – CDG, BAFTA Longlist
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale – CDG, BAFTA Longlist
One Battle After Another – CDG, BAFTA Longlist
Avatar: Fire and Ash – CDG
How to Train Your Dragon – CDG
Thunderbolts – CDG
Tron: Ares – CDG
F1 – CDG
Wake Up Dead Man – CDG
Weapons – CDG
Kiss of the Spider Woman – CCA
Marty Supreme – BAFTA
Nouvelle Vague – BAFTA Longlist
Nuremberg – BAFTA Longlist

Like Production Design, the first thing you should do here is eliminate anything contemporary. So yes, One Battle After Another. Also Weapons, Wake Up Dead Man, F1. You just gotta let it happen. Bugonia, there’s technically a fantasy element there, but, like Production Design, it’s such a small element of the film that I can’t imagine they go there. But we’ll have the hindsight of BAFTA after the fact, so it could happen.

Also, I should note that absolutely nothing has been nominated despite only having CCA as a precursor, so toss off Kiss of the Spider Woman as well. And while we’re there — Tron, Thunderbolts, How to Train Your Dragon, Avatar — toss them off as well. It’s been a while (like, 15 years) since something in the Sci-Fi/Fantasy category was nominated only having CDG as a precursor. Also, Downton Abbey. First two weren’t nominated, can’t imagine they go there this time. Toss it off. And, while they could get BAFTA, Nuremberg and Nouvelle Vague seem very unlikely to me. So they’re off too.

That takes me down to six choices, and a seventh, if we’re looking for something without precursors to sneak on, which seems very possible in a year like this.

Fortunately, we’ve got what appear to be four locks, so most of our category is set. Frankenstein, Hamnet, Sinners, Wicked. Are you leaving any of those off? I’m not. Where does that leave us? Three films, one spot.

First, Hedda. CDG, CCA. Solid. But the film seems to have been ignored everywhere else and frankly, I don’t know how many people even watched it. The lack of a BAFTA shortlist is not encouraging either. Based on precursors, it should be the fifth spot. But, having been in this position before, I usually prefer to take something from BAFTA or something off the board, because that usually ends up being the better guess. Now, the BAFTA option is potentially Marty Supreme (or Bugonia, I guess. Maybe I’m underestimating how much they’d overlook the contemporary aspects of that). But to guess that is to presume it’s gonna get nominated there and then carry over to the final list. Meanwhile, The Testament of Ann Lee is sitting there, no precursor, but very much in the vein of something that would fit this category.

Dude, I don’t know. I’m grateful to know that I’ve got at least four sitting there that are almost certainly getting nominated, so it’s really just one spot I don’t know what to do with. And you know what? Because I don’t believe they’re gonna nominate Hedda and feel like Marty Supreme could be a red herring (because you can’t just put all the major Picture contenders on every category. Not everything is gonna get 8-10 nominations)… fuck it. Let’s take Testament of Ann Lee. Probably not the best choice, but I don’t know what is, and at least it’s got ‘costumes’, you know? I also don’t know if I could get through an entire ballot without at least a couple of ‘fuck it, let’s gamble’ picks.

Best Costume Design

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Sinners

The Testament of Ann Lee

Wicked: For Good

Alternate: Marty Supreme

Dark Horse: Hedda

Surprise: Bugonia, One Battle After Another

Shocker: Kiss of the Spider Woman, Nouvelle Vague, The Secret Agent

Don’t Guess: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, F1, How to Train Your Dragon, Nuremberg, Thunderbolts, Tron: Ares, Wake Up Dead Man, Weapons

Would Love to See: The Testament of Ann Lee

– – – – – – – – – –

Makeup & Hairstyling.

This category is usually easy as long as you abide by three simple rules: 1) no precursors, not foreign, not nominated; 2) they love actor transformations; 3) use the precursors, use common sense.

Since we’ve had 3 precursors (2013), there have been 48 nominees. Only 5 didn’t have a precursor. 4 were foreign. The fifth was in 2013, and was Dallas Buyers Club. So yeah, you’re fine.

Precursors:

Frankenstein – MU+HSx3, BAFTA, CCA*
Wicked: For Good – MU+HSx2, BAFTA, CCA
Sinners – MU+HS, BAFTA, CCA
The Smashing Machine – MU+HS, BAFTA Longlist, CCA
One Battle After Another – MU+HSx3, BAFTA Longlist
Marty Supreme – MU+HS, BAFTA
The Alto Knights – N/A
Kokuho – N/A
Nuremberg – BAFTA Longlist
The Ugly Stepsister – N/A

The two you can toss off are Alto Knights and Nuremberg. Not foreign, no precursors (and I’ll be moderately surprised if Nuremberg does actually even get one). So that leaves 8 films for 5 spots. Not so bad.

I also think you can guess 4/5 here pretty easily. Frankenstein — yeah. Sinners — yeah. Wicked — clearly. And Smashing Machine — pretty good bet. So now you’ve got four films for one spot. Let’s run through the pros and cons:

One Battle — at first glance not something you’d immediately peg as a nominee. Though there is one scene (well, two) with some disfigurement that is very memorable.
Kokuho — haven’t been able to see it yet, but based on what I can see, it seems like a lot of it is traditional Japanese theater makeup and hair. Not sure I see that as enough for a nomination unless it’s one of those life-spanners that has a lot of aging makeup. The foreign element is a plus, but I worry that the film doesn’t have the usual ‘effect’ that tends to get a foreign film nominated. I also truly don’t know how many people will have seen it.
Marty Supreme — I think the main thing here is the facial makeup on Chalamet. He’s meant to look like he’s had acne. It’s subtle, but it’s throughout the film. The high profile works both ways on this. You’d think, “Oh, it’s getting nominated everywhere, of course it’s getting on.” Yet, stuff like this does tend to also be left off. I don’t know about this one…
Ugly Stepsister — Visibility is an issue. But being foreign is a boost, historically. Though also, it seems like body horror, but not overtly so. It’s not The Substance, where the makeup is front and center. I think the makeup here picks its spots. Sight unseen, I can’t tell, but I’d wager this is more of a contender than at least two of the nominees in the category, which is something.

I don’t quite know what to do. I think I’m gonna lean away from the foreign stuff this year, just because two of your top Picture nominees are contending for that final spot. I think I’m gonna lean toward One Battle After Another, absent seeing what BAFTA does, just because it got more overall nominations from the guild than Marty Supreme, and the effects makeup for that portion of the film/that character is memorable. So I’ll take that and hope for the best. I know I’m somehow gonna be wrong here, but I can’t pinpoint precisely where. So I’d rather cover as many bases as possible in the hopes of getting 4/5.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Frankenstein

One Battle After Another

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Wicked: For Good

First Alternate: Marty Supreme

Dark Horse: Kokuho

Surprise: The Alto Knights, The Ugly Stepsister

Shocker: Nuremberg

Don’t Guess: N/A

Would Love to See: I think they’re gonna get the ones they need to get.

– – – – – – – – – –

Visual Effects.

To start, the longlisted films that didn’t make the shortlist include: Captain America: Brave New World, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, How to Train Your Dragon, Lilo & Stitch, Mickey 17, A Minecraft Movie, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Predator: Badlands, The Running Man and Thunderbolts. I’m somewhat surprised Mission Impossible didn’t even get a courtesy push-through. I also like that they don’t even pretend to respect Marvel anymore. Took them long enough.

This past decade, only 4 films were nominated without VES Best Effects (or Supporting Effects) or BAFTA: Kubo, Love and Monsters, Wakanda Forever and Godzilla Minus One. Two of those you saw coming, Kubo was more ‘will they do it’ and Love and Monsters was totally out of nowhere. Between VES and BAFTA, it’s not difficult.

Precursors:

Avatar: Fire and Ash – VES x10*, BAFTA, CCA*
F1 – VES x2*, BAFTA, CCA
Superman – VES x4, BAFTA Longlist, CCA
The Lost Bus – VES x5*, BAFTA
Jurassic World Rebirth – VES x1*, BAFTA Longlist
Sinners – VES x1*, CCA
Tron: Ares – VES x2, BAFTA Longlist
Wicked: For Good – VES x1, BAFTA Longlist
Frankenstein – BAFTA, CCA
The Electric State – N/A

Avatar is winning, so you’ve got one. After that, best of luck. We don’t have BAFTA, and BAFTA always alerts you to the nominee you may not immediately guess by just looking at the shortlist. So we’re gonna have to do this the hard way.

Electric State is not happening. So you’ve got one off. Tron — they nominated the first one. Meaning 1982. Legacy in 2010, they did not. I feel like they didn’t watch it and don’t care about it and I’d be surprised if they nominated it. Similarly, Jurassic World. Franchise hasn’t been nominated since 1997 (Spielberg). Hard to see them randomly going back to it, even in a weak year. So that leaves seven. Six for four spots once we take Avatar as a given.

Personally, I feel like history has told us we should leave both Frankenstein and Sinners off. You know the Best Picture rule when it comes to this category. In the modern effects era, when a Best Picture nominee is nominated in this category, it wins 99% of the time. Unless it’s losing to another Best Picture nominee. Ex Machina beating Fury Road, The Martian and the Revenant is literally the only time it’s happened since 1970. So the notion that either Frankenstein or Sinners gets on just to lose to Avatar seems weird to me. Maybe the history is whatever, and one or both will get on and just lose. Maybe Avatar is gonna be a Best Picture nominee too again. I just feel like, historically-speaking, the precedent is that neither gets on or one of them wins. I’m leaning toward the former, because I don’t see Avatar losing. But maybe that’s what’s gonna happen here.

Because I’m leaning toward both being left off, I’ve got my category picked out for me. Which means Wicked gets on again (makes sense. I’d probably have guessed that), F1 gets on (makes sense. Most people would guess that based on the shortlist), The Lost Bus gets on (5 VES noms and Supporting Effects, sneaky good choice for BAFTA. I think it’s a solid bet), and Superman gets on. Which… is where I have concerns. It didn’t hit the big category at VES. But it’s still up for BAFTA and may get that to ‘justify’ it. But if it doesn’t, then it becomes one of 5 nominees without VES Best Effects or BAFTA. But, again… that, or Frankenstein or Sinners getting on and losing and breaking 55 years of precedent. I’m gonna take Superman there until I see it. Frankenstein got zero VES nominations, and while Sinners did get Supporting Effects only… 55 years, guys. This is a situation where I really wished I had BAFTA. But oh well. I feel good about four of these. Worst case it’s 3/5. I can live with that, especially knowing I’m listening to history.

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash

The Lost Bus

Superman

Wicked: For Good

First Alternate: Frankenstein

Dark Horse: Sinners

Surprise: Jurassic World Rebirth, Tron: Ares

Shocker: The Electric State

Don’t Guess: N/A

Would Love to See: Almost impossible to mess this one up (and yet, there’s one nominee…)

– – – – – – – – – –

Sound.

Only 2 movies since 2000 were nominated without a precursor: a Hobbit movie and The Creator. The latter is the only one to happen post-single Sound category (and shortlists). So until this starts to become a trend, I’m thinking the precursors will lead the way.

Precursors:

One Battle After Another – CAS, MPSEx3, BAFTA, CCA
F1 – CAS, MPSEx2, BAFTA, CCA*
Sinners – CAS, MPSEx3, BAFTA, CCA
Frankenstein – CAS, MPSEx2, BAFTA, CCA
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning – CAS, BAFTA Longlist, MPSE
Wicked: For Good – BAFTA Longlist, MPSE
Sirât – MPSE (I), CCA
Avatar: Fire and Ash – BAFTA Longlist
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere – N/A
Superman – N/A

Well this seems pretty easy, right?

Springsteen and Superman don’t have the pedigree (or sound design) to make it on without a precursor. Avatar needs BAFTA for me to take it seriously, and the fact that we don’t know if it does and it missing everywhere else tells me… just let it happen. Sirât… it’s foreign, so I’m not sure what to do with that. There’s not a ton of precedent there (though Zone of Interest did win…), so the lack of precursors might actually help it. I gotta consider it higher than everything else I already mentioned because they could go there. Still, hard call over the rest. Wicked — makes sense. Though missing most places tells me they’re pretty tepid on it. Hard to call it over the rest.

We’ve only had a singular category with a shortlist since 2021, so there’s really only 4 years of ‘proper’ precedent. CCA also randomly brought back their Sound category this year, so we’ll have four precursors moving forward. But outside of knowing that F1 won CCA, they don’t exactly help us (but the Sirât addition is good).

With the other three precursors, I can say that since 2021, only once (in 11 films) did something hit all three precursors and then not get nominated (and it was Ferrari, which was shut out everywhere). Granted, we dn’t have BAFTA yet, but it’s worth noting. We have the potential for five films to hit all three precursors. Generally speaking that does not happen in a single year, so I suspect that to not be the eventual case.

What I will say is that I’m not not guessing F1. I’m also not not guessing Sinners. I cannot imagine they leave One Battle After Another off, so that’s three. Mission: Impossible seems like a shoe-in for BAFTA, as they’ve nominated two of the recent films. So I’m putting that on my list, though I can see them eventually leaving it off. But I’m guessing it. So that’s four.

And having four, I’m now left with potentially taking Avatar, having missed every other precursor (and hitting all of them last time) and potentially getting BAFTA alone, Sirât, working with CCA and a foreign MPSE nomination (actually solid, knowing the category’s recent inclusion of two foreign nominees the past two years), Wicked, which missed CAS (wild) and may not even et BAFTA, and Frankenstein, potentially hitting everything.

So yeah, I gotta take Frankenstein and then leave Sirât as the alternate. It can happen, I just don’t know whose spot its taking (could legitimately be one of three). So I’ll just let it take one and then take my 4/5. I’m cool.

Best Sound

Frankenstein

Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

One Battle After Another

Sinners

First Alternate: Sirât

Dark Horse: Wicked: For Good

Surprise: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Shocker: Superman

Don’t Guess: N/A

Would Love to See: They should get this one right almost no matter what they do.

– – – – – – – – – –

Casting.

This is a new category, so there’s no precedent here and we’re figuring this all out as we go. Fortunately BAFTA and CCA added it as a category and the Casting Society has precursor awards, so we’ve got something to work off.

Precursors:

Sinners – CSA, BAFTA, CCA*
Hamnet – CSA, BAFTA Longlist, CCA
Marty Supreme – CSA, BAFTA, CCA
One Battle After Another – BAFTA, CCA
Wicked: For Good – CSA, CCA
Frankenstein – CSA, BAFTA Longlist
Sentimental Value – CSA, BAFTA
Sirât – BAFTA Longlist
The Secret Agent – N/A
Weapons – N/A

Sinners and Hamnet feel like stone cold locks. Between the children of Hamnet and most of the cast of Sinners (especially Miles Caton)… if we’re talking proper casting, those two should be on. And Marty Supreme should be as well, given the realistic faces that populate the supporting roles in that movie. Plus the discovery of Odessa A’Zion and the thought to include Kevin O’Leary — it should be there. So that’s three. I imagine they’ll include One Battle just because of how good the cast is and because of Chase Infiniti, so I’ll make that four. The precursors also back that up, so that’s something.

That leaves a fifth spot. I can’t imagine it’s Wicked, since it’s the exact same cast as the first one. I couldn’t explain that if they did it outside of it’s to encompass both parts and reflect the great casting of Erivo and Grande. Weapons feels like something they’d nominate, but it’s not as ‘classy’ as the other choices and I just don’t think they’d appreciate the casting as they would in other things. Sirat and The Secret Agent — not sure what they’re gonna do. Frankenstein… feels like Guillermo cast who he wanted and there’s not a ton of casting to be had there to appreciate, I feel. Which leaves Sentimental Value. I think they might put that on there just as an ensemble vote. But I could be wrong. Either way, I think I’m getting four of these because they make the most sense.

Best Casting

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

First Alternate: Frankenstein

Dark Horse: Weapons

Surprise: The Secret Agent, Wicked: For Good

Shocker: Sirât

Don’t Guess: N/A

Would Love to See: As long as Hamnet, Marty Supreme and Sinners make it, they got it right.

– – – – – – – – – –

Animated Feature.

Just to give the breakdown as of this moment, of all the 35 eligible films, I’ve seen 21 of them.

Seen: The Bad Guys 2, Boys Go to Jupiter, Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc, Colorful Stage! The Movie: A Miku Who Can’t Sing, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle, Dog Man, Elio, Endless Cookie, Fixed, Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie, In Your Dreams, KPop Demon Hunters, The Legend of Hei 2, Light of the World, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Lost in Starlight, Mahavatar Narsimha, Night of the Zoopocalypse, 100 Meters, The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants, Stitch Head, The Twits, Zootopia 2

Haven’t seen yet: All Operators Are Currently Unavailable, Arco, Black Butterflies, ChaO, David, Dog of God, Dragon Heart – Adventures Beyond This World, A Magnificent Life, Olivia & las Nubes, Out of the Nest, Scarlet, Slide

Precursors:

Elio – Annies x10*, PGA, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
Zootopia 2 – Annies x7*, PGA, BAFTA, CCA, Globes (BAFTA)
Arco – Annies x5*, BAFTA Longlist, CCA, Globes, NBR (BAFTA)
KPop Demon Hunters – Annies x10*, PGA, CCA*, Globes*
Little Amelie or The Character of Rain – Annies x7*, BAFTA, CCA, Globes
The Bad Guys 2 – Annies x5*, PGA, BAFTA Longlist
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba Infinity Castle – PGA, BAFTA Longlist, Globes
In Your Dreams – Annies x2, CCA
Scarlet – Annies x3*
The Twits – Annies x3
Lost in Starlight – Annies x1*
A Magnificent Life – Annies x1*
Olivia & las Nubes – Annies x1
Chainsaw Man The Movie: Reze Arc – Annies x1
Fixed – Annies x1
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants – Annies x1

In the history of this category, only 6 films were nominated without being nominated for Best Feature or Best Independent Feature at the Annies, four of which (Elemental, Over the Moon, Shark Tale, Treasure Planet) had 6+ Annie nominations, three of which (Shark Tale, Treasure Planet, Jimmy Neutron) came within the first three years of the category, and only one of which (Ferdinand, which did have both the PGA and the Globes) felt like a surprise. Also, only 4 films (1 since 2004) have been nominated with a score below 70% on Rotten Tomatoes (and one was at 69%), and only 2 have been nominated without a significant precursor (both coming before the PGA gave out awards).

The thing you have to take most into account when looking at this category is that it’s not 15 years ago, and Disney/Pixar is not gonna automatically be nominated. The past decade shows a lot of non-American (and more artistic) efforts getting on. This one is interesting because the American studio output was extremely weak this year, and there’s not a ton of obvious stuff like there is most years.

I have to imagine that Elio, Zootopia and KPop Demon Hunters are all making it. KPop Demon Hunters is a phenomenon and I don’t think they’re stubbornly gonna not vote for it the way they did for the Lego Movie. Elio seems like an easy one — original Pixar always seems to make it. Zootopia… most years this would be one I’d question. But this year being so weak, I don’t see how they don’t look at it as an oasis. I’m taking it and letting them go somewhere else. For them not to vote for it means three non-American studio films get on and they actually, at large, watched a significant amount of other stuff. Which is usually not a smart bet. I’ll bet on the house on that one.

That leaves two spots, and that makes sense to me. The question is what they are. Arco has hit basically every precursor and seems to be the most lauded of the contenders, so I’m giving that one of the spots. It hit everything I’d want to see and just makes sense.

For the final spot — I’m tossing off everything that didn’t hit the main Annies list and wasn’t longlisted at BAFTA. Which takes off most of what I’d have taken off anyway. The only American film left is The Bad Guys 2, which I’m tossing because the first one wasn’t nominated and I just don’t believe they’re gonna suddenly nominate the sequel. To guess a film like this is sort of like just guessing everything the PGA or SAG nominated. You’re not doing any critical thinking, because it continued to not happen year after year. So I’m not doing it. I need to see them make that choice before I consider it. Scarlet and Lost in Starlight both got the Annie nom, but neither has any real notoriety and I’d be surprised to se either get nominated. Then there’s A Magnificent Life. Which is Sylvain Chomet, who’s previously been nominated for The Triplets of Belleville and The Illusionist. So I’m taking it very seriously. Though it got nominated nowhere else and only got the one main Annie nomination, which concerns me.

Meanwhile, Little Amelie got 7 Annie nominations including the big one, got CCA and the Globes (both) and is on the BAFTA longlist. I don’t see how I don’t take that. Plus it was delightful.

This whole list feels so thin that either we’re gonna get an insane category or these obvious five are just gonna be the five. I’m gonna play that scenario, because I’ve not seen this branch stray too far from the norm (meaning the obvious American stuff and the high profile foreign stuff that’s been everywhere getting nominated). When they nominate Demon Slayer or Chainsaw Man, then I’ll start reconsidering my approach strategy. Until then, it’s probably gonna be the same stuff you can guess.

Best Animated Feature

Arco

Elio

KPop Demon Hunters

Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Zootopia 2

First Alternate: A Magnificent Life

Dark Horse: The Bad Guys 2

Surprise: Scarlet, Lost in Starlight

Shocker: Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, In Your Dreams, The Twits

Don’t Guess: All Operators are Currently Unavailable, Black Butterflies, Boys Go to Jupiter, Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc, ChaO, Colorful Stage! The Movie: A Miku Who Can’t Sing, David, Dog Man, Dog of God, Dragon Heart – Adventures Beyond This World, Endless Cookie, Fixed, Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie, The Legend of Hei 2, Light of the World, Lost in Starlight, Mahavatar Narsimha, Night of the Zoopocalypse, Olivia & the Clouds, 100 Meters, Out of the Nest, Slide, The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants, Stitch Head

Would Love to See: Zootopia get left off for something more interesting.

– – – – – – – – – –

International Feature.

Yes, there are precursors, but most of the time, honestly, it’s just vibes. I don’t know how to explain it. Sure, there are some top contenders each year and maybe they leave one of them off, but most of the obvious stuff makes it on. Past that, I feel like each year there’s just a feel for ‘oh, they’re gonna nominate this film/country’. I have, probably a half-dozen times in the past 15 years, looked a the shortlist and just known they’re gonna nominate a particular film or country. I cannot explain it and it’s not a concrete strategy at all, but it’s worked on way more occasions than you’d expect it to. But, if you’re looking for a proper strategy for this category — check the precursors, see how each of the countries usually fare (underrated aspect — some just never get nominated and you don’t realize it until you look) and try to watch as many as you can (which I hope is the strategy for all of this).

Precursors:

The Secret Agent – BAFTA, CCA*, Indie Spirit, Globes*, NBR
Sirat – BAFTA, CCA, Indie Spirit, Globes, NBR
It Was Just an Accident – BAFTA, CCA, Globes, NBR*
Left Handed Girl – BAFTA Longlist, CCA, NBR
No Other Choice – BAFTA Longlist, CCA, Globes
Sentimental Value – BAFTA, Globes, NBR
The Voice of Hind Rajab – BAFTA, Globes
Belen – CCA
All That’s Left of You – N/A
Homebound – N/A
Kokuho – N/A
Late Shift – N/A
Palestine 36 – N/A
The President’s Cake – N/A
Sound of Falling – N/A

Admittedly I have not yet been able to watch all of these. I’m only halfway through watching them (and am missing just Kokuho and The President’s Cake).

Here’s a rundown of how each country has fared, historically and in the precursor (2006-present) era:

Argentina — 8 nominations in 52 submissions with 2 wins. This is their fourth shortlist. They’ve been nominated the three previous times they’ve been shortlisted.
Brazil — 5 nominations in 55 submissions with a win (last year). They’ve been shortlisted twice and nominated once.
France — 39 nominations in 73 submissions with 9 wins (plus three honorary). This is their 11th shortlist, which includes 5 nominations. They haven’t won since 1992.
Germany — 22 nominations in 66 submissions with 4 wins. They’ve been shortlisted 14 times, which includes 8 nominations. They’re on their fifth consecutive shortlist and have been nominated each of the past three years.
India — 3 nominations in 58 submissions. No wins. This is only their second shortlist.
Iraq — 14 submissions, never nominated. This is their first shortlist.
Japan — 15 nominations in 69 submissions with 2 wins (plus three honorary). This is their sixth shortlist, which includes four nominations (with 2 wins).
Jordan — 1 nomination in 9 submissions. This is their second shortlist.
Norway — 6 nominations in 47 submissions. Never won. This is their sixth shortlist, which includes two nominations.
Palestine — 2 nominations in 18 submissions. They’ve been shortlisted twice before (including last year), nominated once (2013).
South Korea — 1 nomination (Parasite) in 38 nominations. This is their fourth shortlist.
Spain — 21 nominations in 68 submissions with 4 wins. This is their sixth shortlist, which includes 2 nominations.
Switzerland — 5 nominations in 53 submissions with 2 wins. This is their fourth shortlist. They’ve not been nominated since 1990.
Taiwan — 3 nominations in 51 submissions with 1 win. This is their third shortlist. They’ve not been nominated since 2000.
Tunisia — 1 nomination in 12 submissions. No wins. This is their third shortlist.

I do all that just to notice any trends. You’d think there’s not much to discuss this year with such heavy hitters at the top of the pack. But believe me, that’s a fool’s game, to assume this branch is gonna do what you think it’s gonna do. For example, here are a few shortlisted films that didn’t end up getting nominated: Bardo, Decision to Leave, A Hero, Burning, Force Majeure, The Grandmaster, The Intouchables, Volver. I’m not saying all should have, I’m just saying, they weren’t. And they were for sure some of the most (if not the most) visible films on their respective shortlists.

But you know the biggest thing I see in all those precursors? South Korea has only been nominated once ever (for Parasite). And they didn’t nominate them for Burning or Decision to Leave (also by Park Chan-wook). That’s… troubling.

Anyway, if Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident and The Secret Agent are all potentially up for Best Picture nominations, I’m not leaving them off my list. Similarly, with Sirât making multiple other shortlists, I feel weird also not guessing it. So that’s four.

But, even though No Other Choice is a known quantity this year, the shortlist is full of great stuff, and historically this branch does get other stuff on their category. So we do need to look at everything we have before we just anoint it.

Late Shift — I feel pretty confident this won’t be nominated. It’s a good movie, but it’s no more than an above-average drama (admittedly it also lost me slightly at the very end, when it ended like a House or Grey’s Anatomy episode, with the music playing as she left the hospital for the night). They like to shortlist things like this because they can see how easily they can be adapted to English. The Guilty was a good example of this (and they remade it within three years). Not saying this is gonna get remade, but it just feels like an effort that wouldn’t make the final cut. It’s in the good-not-great tier in a year with some great stuff.
Homebound — I’ve not watched this yet, but it doesn’t give off the vibe of something that’ll be nominated (most years I can tell what they’re gonna gravitate toward that doesn’t jump out at you from the shortlist). India hasn’t been nominated since 2001. Again, does not have the feel of something that would be nominated.
Kokuho — I feel like you’d have more notice if this were gonna get nominated. This category is either way at the top or way ‘what is that’. These middle of the road ones feel like fodder to me. Sure, it’s shortlisted in Makeup & Hairstyling, but I don’t know. This doesn’t fit the mold for me, and I’ll leave it at that. (I did say some of this category is just vibes.)
The President’s Cake — This feels like something that can get nominated. 9 year old has to bake Saddam Hussein’s birthday cake, and could be killed if she fucks up. Amazing premise. Plus Iraq’s never been nominated. They used to love voting for films like this. Don’t rule this one out.
The Voice of Hind Rajab — this sure is tempting. Docudrma about a six-year-old girl trapped in a car in Gaza on the phone with emergency services as they try to get her to safety from the Israeli tanks. This sure is baity. And it uses all the actual dialogue from the girl. It’s an emotional story. Watching the film feels — it’s well-acted, but feels very manipulatively written. Still, that may work for them. You gotta consider this a major contender just on the fact that the director was longlisted at BAFTA alone. There’s gonna be fans of this out there.
Belen — It’s a trial movie, and there was one of those last year, and I think maybe even the year before that. This feels like your classic ‘never gonna happen’ movie. Could be great (haven’t watched it yet), but again, on vibes… nah. Gonna let them just do this.
All That’s Left of You — This is the one, of everything, I wish I was able to have watched. Because this stuck out at me as the one I could see making it on. Again, just vibes and a gut feeling. But this has the feel to me of something that could make it.
Palestine 36 — I think they voted for the country here, personally. I’m sure it’s good (haven’t watched it yet), but this feels like something that won’t make it and I don’t think the film will get nominated.
Sound of Falling — The cinematography shortlisting is something. And I could maybe see it. But this feels like one of those that, each year, ends up like, 7th or 8th for votes and doesn’t make it. Could see it, not gonna guess it, just gonna let it happen. My gut for the final spot is always towards a smaller country and not one like Germany. Because sometimes the country being the country is responsible for the shortlisting.
Left-Handed Girl — Sean Baker co-wrote this, and he just won everything last year. I’m taking this very seriously on that alone, but I also could see this as a major red herring because of that. Based on my knowledge of this branch (and not being able to see the film before tomorrow morning), I’m gonna go with no over yes. You could do it though. I just feel like, if I’m going somewhere else, I’m going much more seemingly ‘random’ than that (or Hind Rajab, which feels like the more obvious swap).

Okay, so that’s a lot of words and nothing really of substance. Mostly just opinion. Because I’ve only watched half of the films. And honestly, unless they throw a grenade into the mix, you’re gonna get most of the obvious stuff. So just take the obvious stuff. It comes down to whether or not you leave No Other Choice off. I’m just gonna leave it on and make my bottom section what I feel are the likeliest of outcomes. Because honestly, the top five are so strong, I think it may just go that way. So let’s see what happens. If I take this category and go less than 4/5, then everyone else guessing went down with me.

Best International Feature

It Was Just an Accident (France)

No Other Choice (South Korea)

The Secret Agent (Brazil)

Sentimental Value (Norway)

Sirāt (Spain)

First Alternate: The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

Dark Horse: Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan)

Surprise: All That’s Left of You (Jordan), The President’s Cake (Iraq)

Shocker: Belén (Argentina), Palestine 36 (Palestine), Sound of Falling (Germany)

Don’t Guess: Homebound (India), Kokuho (Japan), Late Shift (Switzerland)

Would Love to See: This category’s gonna be stacked almost no matter what they do.

– – – – – – – – – –

Documentary.

There are precursors here, but they almost never use them. I mean, you can kinda tell based on what gets a lot of precursors and what it’s about if they’re gonna probably nominate it, but otherwise it’s a crapshoot and you’re just guessing. And we don’t even really have the populist documentary we normally have most years. The last time we had anything like we were getting 10, 15 years ago was Summer of Soul in 2021. Maybe when the slap happened it took away all the fun in this category.

Precursors:

Cover-Up – PGA, BAFTA, IDA, CCAx2, NBR*
The Perfect Neighbor – PGA, BAFTA, CCA*x6
2000 Meters to Andriivka – BAFTA, CCAx5, NBR
Apocalypse in the Tropics – BAFTA, IDAx4*, CCAx4
The Alabama Solution – PGA, IDA, CCAx5
Mr. Nobody Against Putin – PGA, BAFTA
Seeds – IDA x3, CCAx2
My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow* – IDA, CCA
Yanuni – IDA
Folktales – CCA
Mistress Dispeller – CCA
Come See Me in the Good Light – NBR
Holding Liat – N/A
Coexistence, My Ass! – N/A
Cutting Through Rocks – N/A

I’ve managed to see 12/15 here. Still need to watch Mistress Dispeller and haven’t been able to find Yanuni and Seeds. And I can say pretty resolutely, about this category — ehh.

I don’t quite know what to do with this, because they left off anything of interest to the mainstream. And there’s not even anything artistic this year either. It just feels… weak.

Anyway, Coexistence My Ass is basically a stand up comedy special. No chance in fuck am I guessing that to get nominated. Holding Liat — not the side of the conflict this group is voting for. Just gonna leave those ones alone and see how broken this branch is. Folktales — ehh. Kids camping. Not their vibe in this category. Not feeling it. Cutting Through Rocks — no precursors, feels like something better suited in Doc Short. Gonna just let them do it. Yanuni, sight unseen, I don’t know what to do with it, but given that it’s indigenous, probably not somewhere they’re going. I’m okay dismissing it. Mistress Dispeller — sight unseen, great premise, not sure they’re going there. Maybe I’d have changed my mind if I was able to see it beforehand, but I wasn’t, so we’ll just assume no and see what happens.

I’m down to 9 films. And we’ll start with the 5 1/2 hour long elephant in the room, My Undesirable Friends. Yes, it’s truly that long. And yes, I watched every minute of it.

It’s basically a series cut together to be a documentary. And a lot of it is just the day to day lives of people. I don’t know if they’re gonna go for it, and my gut tells me no. My gut tells me a lot of voters are gonna see the runtime, get bored, and then not vote for it. So I’m gonna not guess that and just let them do it on sheer ADHD alone.

Also, Mr. Nobody Against Putin — another documentary with a similar theme. I thought at the outset I’d probably be guessing this because one, the title is great and memorable. And two, the premise makes it seem like they snuck all the footage out of the country and it’s this secret thing. But the actual documentary makes it more about this guy than it does the story. And like sure, you saw it. But buddy, come on, now. I feel like how that documentary is structured hurts it, and I feel like people who see it may feel the same way. So I’m gonna guess they leave it off because it’s not as powerful as you’d think it may be.

Also, Come See Me in the Good Light… sure feels like it was better suited as a short doc. Because 2 hours of someone dying of cancer… I don’t see why they’re gonna vote for this. What’s important or uplifting about it? I don’t see a precedent for them with something like this in recent years, and that makes me think it’s a giant red-herring.

I’m walking my way into a category by eliminating the ones I can’t see happening. I’m down to six choices here.

To go from the other end — The Perfect Neighbor is the best documentary I watched in this category and if they somehow leave it off, it will be a crime (not as much as the crime committed in the documentary, but still). I also think The Alabama Solution is too powerful to not include. 2000 Meters to Andriivka also fits the mold of these recent categories and I’m guessing it. Seeds also fits the artistic vibe they’ve been going for.

That leaves me with two docs for one spot. I’m certain I’m geting this wrong no matter what and something I’ve dismissed will get on instead. But I expect that here. If I can get 4/5 here, I’m thrilled. I expect 3/5 because I expect them to do something I don’t think they will. But anyway, it’s either Cover-Up or Apocalypse in the Tropics. And I enjoyed Cover-Up more, and I liked hearing this guy’s stories. But generally speaking this is the type of doc they don’t nominate. So picking it is probably a fool’s errand. And Apocalypse in the Tropics… probably more in line with what they might nominate. A look at how religion influenced the rise of the far-right in Brazil. Kinda fits. Probably something you should put on. But I’m stupid, so I’m taking Cover-Up.

When it comes to these final categories, I’d just rather sometimes take what I’d like to see over anything else. Usually that leads to me going 2/5 or 3/5 instead of one better, but what can I say? At least I’m consistent.

Best Documentary Feature

2000 Meters to Andriivka

The Alabama Solution

Cover-Up

The Perfect Neighbor

Seeds

First Alternate: Apocalypse in the Tropics

Dark Horse: Come See Me in the Good Light

Surprise: Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow

Shocker: Cutting Through Rocks, Mistress Dispeller, Yanuni

Don’t Guess: Coexistence My Ass!, Folktales, Holding Liat

Would Love to See: If they don’t nominate The Perfect Neighbor…

– – – – – – – – – –

Doc Short.

No precursors. Kinda just going off subject matter and vibes. I’m trying to work my way through as many of these as I can as I write this up. I’m about 2/3 of the way through.

The important thing about this category is always what the docs are about. Always.

All the Empty Rooms — about people who document the bedrooms of kids who died in school shootings. (Which, goddamn that’s probably gonna win, isn’t it?)
All the Walls Came Down — about the Altadena fires leveling a neighborhood where the people can’t necessarily afford to rebuild. (Sneaky good protest message in this.)
Armed Only with a Camera — about the first American journalist killed during the Ukraine war.
Bad Hostage — About Stockholm Syndrome, specifically the story of the filmmaker’s grandmother, who was held hostage and said she felt more threatened by police than the ones holding her hostage.
Cashing Out — About people during the AIDS crisis who, having nowhere else to turn, sold their life insurance policies to make some money (and the predatory investors who bought them)
Chasing Time — About the guy who did Chasing Ice getting cancer and continuing to attempt to take photos warning about climate change.
Children No More –About Israeli protesters holding silent protests with pictures of the children murdered in Gaza.
Classroom 4 — About a classroom of students, half of whom are prisoners, learning together.
The Devil Is Busy — About an abortion clinic in Atlanta and the protests it gets on a daily basis and the struggles they have with the changing laws within the country.
Heartbeat — About the filmmakers documenting their attempts to start a family. The co-director of this has been nominated twice in recent years. One of the two I wasn’t able to find, so I don’t know what to make of this.
Last Days on Lake Trinity — About a bunch of people being kicked out of their trailer park in Florida because the mega church who owns the land shut it down. Insane premise, I know. I don’t know who this is for, but I get the feeling that it’s not this branch.
On Healing Land Birds Perch — About the stories behind the famous photo from Vietnam of the guy being shot in the head. I haven’t been able to find/see this, so I don’t know what to make of it. But it sounds great.
Perfectly a Strangeness — weird fucking doc about donkeys at an abandoned observatory. Literally that’s it. If they somehow nominate this…
Rovina’s Choice — About the effects of the US cutting foreign aid (and a mother trying to save her daughter from starvation because of it)
We Were the Scenery — About a Vietnamese couple who escaped Vietnam for the Philippines, only to end up as extras in Apocalypse Now. (I wish it did more to tie together the innate message in it, but it doesn’t.)

So, looking at this… I cannot imagine in a million years Perfectly a Strangeness gets on. If I had to make one resolute statement about this category, that would be it.

Past that — we’ve got two Vietnam docs. One is about a photograph, the other is about a couple who were extras in Apocalypse Now. Knowing that this category is mainly about issues the branch can ‘solve’ by voting for them (or something mainstream and likable), I can’t imagine they’re gonna pick either of them. Also, Chasing Time — not sure what about climate change is gonna register for them (unless the fact that the filmmaker has cancer and is still making movies while sick resonates when them, as the voting body is of the age where that may happen to them). Last Days in Lake Trinity — don’t know who that’s for. I’m sure they’ll somehow find a way to nominate it, but I don’t see it. It does nothing with its theme. It’s about people getting evicted from a trailer park. Them voting for this would be the most rubbernecking thing this Academy could do. They respect people being evicted from apartments because they used to live in apartments and can relate. Trailer parks? Can’t see it.

Bad Hostage — just saying, would surprise me. Great doc, just not an issue that resonates to modern society. I’d be happy, but it doesn’t fit what they vote for. The Devil Is Busy — abortion docs haven’t been nominated here in a while. Like, 20+ years while. So I think I gotta just let them go there, even though I think the fight to keep abortion legal is a huge issue that should be highlighted. Classroom 4 — 10 years ago, maybe even 5, I’d have automatically put this on my list. I also think, given that they don’t seem to really go for historical type documentaries, Cashing Out is more likely to be left off than put on. I think Heartbeat, sight unseen, is not something I can guess and will just have to let them put it on.

I think All the Empty Rooms is too good a premise to leave off. I think All the Walls Came Down, being about the fires, will resonate with them (plus it’s also about a Black community being displaced by rising housing costs, which I think is also enough of an issue for them to go with). I think Children No More touches on the passive liberal sentiments the Academy loves to espouse and they’ll probably nominate it. I think Rovina’s Choice is basically a fuck you to Trump and they’ll nominate it on that alone. I also think Armed with Only a Camera is the type of thing they like. So I’m taking all those and just gonna hope for the best.

(I ran very much out of time here and had to get this posted, so these shorts categories are not gonna have high analysis in them.)

Best Documentary Short

All the Empty Rooms

All the Walls Came Down

Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud

Children No More: Were and Are Gone

Rovina’s Choice

First Alternate: Cashing Out

Dark Horse: Classroom 4

Surprise: The Devil Is Busy, Heartbeat

Shocker: Bad Hostage, On Healing Land Birds Perch, We Were the Scenery

Don’t Guess: Chasing Time, Last Days on Lake Trinity, Perfectly a Strangeness

Would Love to See: I don’t have strong feelings here at the moment, until I finish all the docs.

– – – – – – – – – –

Live Action Short.

No precursors here, so this is just pure guessing. The one category where you can go 1/5 or 5/5 just as easily in a given year.

I struggle with this category at times because I see some shorts and think, “This is way too obvious for them.” You know those shorts that are deliberately trying to wring emotion out of you in a way that’s just so obviously manipulative? It’s sort of become the basis for the jokes of Oscar bait. I see those and go, “There’s no way they’re gonna nominate that.” And I forget that this entire category is based solely around the taste of the people voting. For as objective as I can be, I do have moments where I get very stubborn. But admittedly, this category is impossible to be objective with because there’s no data. So we’re here. And I’m just gonna do the only thing I know how to do.

To start — A Friend of Dorothy is a short that I bet a lot of people are gonna have on their lists. It’s slickly made, it’s got known actors, it’s got the feel. But what is it about? What is is doing? Knowing what I know about this branch and the stuff they gravitate toward… this feels too on the nose for them. They like a certain kind of manipulative. Not this kind. I think it’s a red herring. Same for Butterfly on a Wheel. I understand the message… it’s trying way too hard. And again, not the kind of try-hard this branch likes. Also, Ado… feels a bit much. I could be way wrong on that. But school shooting shorts don’t usually do well here. I’m just straight up saying no on all three of those and will just be wrong.

The Pearl Comb… this might be controversial… I’m not feeling it. It’s well made enough to make me think they’ll do it, but where’s the hook for them? I don’t see it other than the quality of the filmmaking. I’m just gonna let them go there.

Beyond Silence is the type of short I love every year that they find a way to not nominate. I’d rather just let them surprise me and nominate it at this point. Butcher’s Stain is a nice little doc that could easily make it on. I just didn’t pick it. Dad’s Not Home is the type of short I can see going both ways. It could also easily happen. Same for Extremist. At a certain point you just have to acknowledge that you don’t know shit and you’re just guessing.

I left one of the more entertaining shorts off — Jane Austen’s Period Drama. Mostly because it feels too clever for its own good. In that I think they’re gonna not vote for it because they don’t see it as more than a one-joke thing. This is the kind of short that would’ve made the rounds on the internet ten years ago, not something that would be nominated. While I’d be somewhat surprised if they added it, I do feel like it’s hard to go wrong bolstering your category with a comedy short or two.

Amarela is one short I had in my category for a long time and took off at the last minute. I think it can easily make it. The end scene is pretty powerful. But I went with the other five I chose instead.

Pantyhouse is the comedic short I’m adding. There’s a bittersweetness to it that I think will resonate with them. Similarly, The Singers – the only one I couldn’t see or get a hold of, and something tells me on that alone they’ll nominate it. So I put it on. Two People Exchanging Saliva is the high-concept nominee of the bunch. They always put on one of those. This one is so high-concept that it might turn them off. But I think they’ll do it. A win may be questionable, but a nomination seems fine. The Boy with White Skin I think is the one short that will linger for people, and is one I would not leave off any version of this category I guess. Let them not nominate it. I’m just not picking a category without it. And Rock Paper Scissors — that’s the one I’d probably dismiss most years that I feel they’d nominate. So I just put it on this year. That’s how it happens.

There’s one short every year that I fully dismiss that they nominate. This year I feel like the ones I’ve fully dismissed are for specific reasons and not ‘I didn’t like it’. So I think I may be safe. But I’m always wrong. So keep that in mind. Nobody fucking knows here. Nobody. You either get lucky or you don’t. The most you hope for here is to escape with a 3/5.

Best Live Action Short

The Boy with White Skin

Pantyhose

Rock, Paper, Scissors

The Singers

Two People Exchanging Saliva

First Alternate: Amarela

Dark Horse: Jane Austen’s Period Drama

Surprise: Dad’s Not Home, Extremist

Shocker: Beyond Silence, Butcher’s Stain, The Pearl Comb

Don’t Guess: Ado, Butterfly on a Wheel, A Friend of Dorothy

Would Love to See: Amarela, Two People Exchanging Saliva, Pantyhose

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Animated Short.

No precursors really to be had here. A couple of things were nominated at the Annies and one made the BAFTA shortlist, but mostly this is about seeing as many as you can and using your experience in knowing what they usually go for to hope for the best.

So, again, nobody really knows. There is always one short I fully dismiss that will find a way to be nominated.

The ones that I feel strongest about this year getting nominated are Eiru, Butterfly and Retirement Plan. Retirement Plan feels like the one everyone likes. Eiru just looks gorgeous (because it’s from one of the animators of Wolfwalkers and Song of the Sea), and Butterfly both looks good and has a message. The Girl Who Cried Pearls — it just looks so good I hope they nominate it, so I’m guessing it. After that… I feel like I have to guess Snow Bear. Which is a same, because The Three Sisters is cute as hell and feels like something they’d nominate.

The Quinta’s Ghost feels too dour for them. As does Playing God. Playing God looks good, but it’s so horror-coded that I just can’t see them going there. Autokar feels like a short I’d dismiss and they’d nominate. So I’ll just half-dismiss it. Cardboard is cute but feels like the type of short they don’t nominate much anymore. I Died in Irpin also feels like something I wouldn’t be shocked to see (but would never guess). The Shyness of Trees also feels kind of on the nose for them and is probably worth a guess. The Night Boots looks great but I feel very comfortable thinking it won’t get on. Forevergreen – ehh. Hurikan is one that I can easily see them going for too. I enjoyed that, but can never guess what they’re gonna do with something like that.

They can’t nominate everything, and it’s all guesswork, so fuck it. We’re just gonna hope for the best. At a certain point you’re overthinking something that is unknowable.

Best Animated Short

Butterfly

Éiru

The Girl Who Cried Pearls

Retirement Plan

Snow Bear

First Alternate: The Three Sisters

Dark Horse: Playing God

Surprise: Autokar, The Shyness of Trees

Shocker: Cardboard, I Died in Irpin, The Night Boots

Don’t Guess: Forevergreen, Hurikán, The Quinta’s Ghost

Would Love to See: The Girl Who Cried Pearls and Retirement Plan. The rest is negotiable.

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That’s where we’re at. I have not remotely looked at how many nominations I’ve predicted for things. It’s too late for me to consider any of that. It is what it is. Just gonna hope for the best here. I’m 16 years in, doing this on this site. I just want to, one year, get to 80%. That’s all I want. I don’t know if the extra category helps or hurts me. I’d need to guess 100 total nominees to get to 80%. I’ve never done better than 95 and typically end up right around 90. 75% is the norm for me. As long as I can do as well as I usually do, that’s really all you can ask for.

I’ll be back tomorrow to look at what was nominated and then will go back to trying to watch everything I haven’t seen yet from the shortlists (and keep working to finish off the year so I can get to a top ten list earlier than July).

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This entry was posted on January 21, 2026 by B+ Movie Blog. It was filed under Movies, Oscars and was tagged with 2025, 98th Academy Awards, Academy Award Nominations, Academy Awards, AMPAS, Film, Movies, My Oscar Nominations, Nominations, Nominations Ballot, Oscar, Oscar Nominations, Oscars.

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